Updated Hot-Seat Rankings Through 5 Weeks of 2016 College Football Season
We’ve just finished the first month of the college football season, but as always, the coaching carousel is spinning and picking up momentum. Increasing television revenues and coaching salaries have only ratcheted up the pressure on coaching staffs across America and frayed the patience of athletic directors as a result.
We’ve already seen two head coaches (LSU’s Les Miles and Florida International’s Ron Turner) lose their jobs, and more coaches are certain to join Miles and Turner in the unemployment line or hop on the carousel.
Here’s a look at the coaches and programs likely to make the move in the coming weeks and months.
10. Paul Johnson (Georgia Tech)
1 of 10
Sometimes change is best for all involved. A fresh start, a new outlook, a new injection of ideas. That could be the case for Georgia Tech and head coach Paul Johnson. The outspoken, fiery Johnson once looked like a breath of fresh air for the Yellow Jackets.
His first two seasons at Tech led to 19 wins, pieces of two ACC Coastal Division titles and an ACC championship. Since then, however, a roller-coaster pattern with more downs than ups has emerged. Tech followed a 2009 ACC title with a 28-25 record over the next four seasons, but it broke out with an 11-3 mark and a Coastal Division title in 2014.
Last fall saw another big regression back to 3-9, and the Jackets are 3-2 through five weeks with a 1-2 ACC mark that includes discouraging losses to Clemson and Miami (FL). Tech doesn’t look like a threat to win the Coastal this fall, and after eight-plus seasons, has the magic of Johnson’s flexbone option worn off?
Johnson has a new boss in athletic director Todd Stansbury, and he would be advised to win as many games as he can to keep the new guy happy.
9. Rod Carey (Northern Illinois)
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Northern Illinois earned a reputation as one of the best teams in the “Group of Five.” Four years ago, the Huskies went 12-2 and earned a surprising bid to face Florida State in the Orange Bowl. Although they lost that game, Dave Doeren used the season’s momentum to earn the head role at North Carolina State.
Offensive line coach Rod Carey took over, but he hasn’t been able to keep the momentum rolling. Working with Doeren recruits, Carey went from 12-2 to 11-3 to 8-6 last fall. This season has been rather disastrous by recent standards.
Following a 31-24 win at Ball State, NIU is 1-4, including a loss to in-state FCS foe Western Illinois. The Huskies are slipping under Carey’s watch and will need to win five of their last seven games to avoid missing postseason play for the first time since 2007. How long will NIU officials put up with this slide? We’ll see.
8. Mark Helfrich (Oregon)
3 of 10
The Pac-12 has a television problem. The league has its own Pac-12 Network, but an ongoing dispute with DirecTV, among other carriers, has kept it from receiving nationwide distribution. That limits the audience for many Pac-12 games, but those in Oregon, including head coach Mark Helfrich, probably don’t mind.
Under Helfrich’s watch, the Ducks have quietly slid into mediocrity or worse. Helfrich was elevated to the head role after Chip Kelly took off for the NFL, and he initially kept the good times rolling, going 24-4 with a national runner-up finish in his first two seasons.
But the Ducks haven’t been the same since quarterback Marcus Mariota left for the NFL. Over the last season-plus, they’re 11-7, including a 2-3 record this fall. Oregon has been woeful this year, allowing at least 35 points in each of its three defeats, including a 51-33 loss to Washington State this past week.
New defensive coordinator Brady Hoke hasn’t made a difference; the Ducks are allowing 36.2 points per game. And shouldn’t a program of Oregon’s caliber be able to do better than attracting an FCS graduate transfer to be its starting quarterback? The questions are mounting for Helfrich and Oregon, and answers remain elusive.
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7. Clay Helton (USC)
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One of the most important under-the-radar wins Saturday night was USC's 41-20 belting of previously unbeaten Arizona State. That win improved the Trojans to 2-3 and likely cooled first-year head coach Clay Helton’s seat a bit.
It might seem harsh to have Helton on a "hot seat" list. After all, he righted the Trojans' ship last fall following Steve Sarkisian's departure and led USC to a Pac-12 South championship. However, here's the truth: Since being named full-time head coach, Helton is just 2-5.
That does include a pair of losses to Stanford, a loss to defending national champion Alabama and a loss to Utah, but when you're at a program with USC's tradition and resources, more is expected.
It was somewhat surprising that then-athletic director Pat Haden landed on Helton as the new coach last fall rather than hiring from outside, and with Haden gone and replaced by Lynn Swann, Helton no longer has loyalty in the athletic department’s ranks.
The season closes with Oregon, Washington, UCLA and Notre Dame. It’s not out of the question for the Trojans to miss a bowl game this fall, and it also wouldn’t be surprising to see a change if a talented roster continues to flounder.
6. Tim DeRuyter (Fresno State)
5 of 10
After the 2011 season, Fresno State cut ties with Pat Hill after 15 years. The Bulldogs had slipped to 4-9 and were struggling defensively. They hired Texas A&M defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter, who had a history of turning around poor defenses. And initially, it looked like a good hire.
The Bulldogs were 9-4 in 2012 and improved to 11-2 in 2013, winning pieces of Mountain West league and division titles in the process. But since then, Fresno has fallen off a cliff. The Bulldogs qualified for a bowl despite a sub-.500 record in 2014, finishing 6-8 after winning the Mountain West’s West Division and making the MWC title game, but slipped to 3-9 last fall.
They’re 1-4 thus far in 2016, with the only win coming over FCS foe Sacramento State. The defense has allowed at least 41 points in all four defeats and is yielding 38.2 points per game. That’s bad news for a coach whose reputation is built on strong defenses. Fresno has time for a rebound, but the trends, both defensively and record-wise, are troubling for DeRuyter’s future.
5. Gus Malzahn (Auburn)
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Auburn is in a difficult position. The Tigers have a rabid, loyal fanbase and a solid tradition that includes a 2011 BCS National Championship and a national runner-up finish in 2013. But they share a state and the SEC West with Alabama and head coach Nick Saban, who has won four national championships in nine seasons with the Crimson Tide. That’s a tough standard to live up to, but it’s one that the Tigers and head coach Gus Malzahn are judged on.
Since leading the Tigers to the brink of a national title in his debut season, Malzahn and Auburn have regressed. Auburn is 18-13 overall and 7-11 in SEC play over the last two-plus years, including a 3-2 overall record and 1-1 SEC mark through five games this season.
An 18-13 win over LSU, which saw LSU’s final-play touchdown called back after officials ruled that time had expired before the snap, was huge for Malzahn (and fatal to Les Miles’ job security).
Auburn belted Louisiana-Monroe 58-7 Saturday and has a winnable game at Mississippi State, but it faces three more currently ranked teams (Ole Miss, Arkansas and Alabama) before season’s end, as well as a trip to rival Georgia.
Will a 6-6 or 7-5 record be good enough for Malzahn to keep his job with an $8.9 million buyout and a contract that runs through 2020, per James Crepea of AL.com? We might get to find out.
4. Paul Haynes (Kent State)
7 of 10
Kent State is not exactly an easy job. The Golden Flashes have made two bowls in the last 54 years. And after Darrell Hazell took Kent State to an 11-3 record in 2012, he probably made a smart move in bolting to Purdue, even though he has struggled mightily with the Boilermakers.
His replacement, Paul Haynes, is showing that Hazell’s success might have been a “flash” (pun intended) in the pan. In three-plus seasons at Kent State, he is 10-30 with season records of 4-8, 2-9 and 3-9.
This fall, Kent is 1-4, including a 39-36 loss to FCS foe North Carolina A&T. The Flashes don’t look like a serious MAC contender, and Haynes’ time at the program’s helm could be running short.
3. Derek Mason (Vanderbilt)
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Vanderbilt is the toughest job in the Southeastern Conference, and it’s not even close. The private school’s tougher academic standards and overall lack of tradition make it tough to compete with the likes of Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida and the rest of the SEC.
So that makes what James Franklin did (two nine-win seasons and three bowl appearances) even more impressive. Franklin earned the Penn State job (and has yet to break through there), but his replacement, Derek Mason, is making Vandy fans pine for that era.
Under Mason’s watch, the Commodores have regressed back into their usual role as SEC doormat. Entering 2016, Vandy was 7-17 under Mason, including 2-14 in league play. The Commodores are currently 2-3 overall and 0-2 in SEC play. They scored a combined 16 points in losses to South Carolina and Florida and suffered an embarrassing 38-7 whipping at Georgia Tech’s hands.
Mason already fired his offensive and defensive coordinators following a 3-9 debut season and is serving as his own defensive coordinator. With Georgia, Auburn, Ole Miss and Tennessee still left on the schedule, it’s hard to see this team getting to six wins and postseason eligibility. Vandy officials need to decide how much they enjoyed the Franklin era and what they’re willing to endure from Mason.
2. Charlie Strong (Texas)
9 of 10
In the age of Twitter and social media, it’s easy to have knee-jerk reactions to individual events. That’s important to note in the case of Texas and head coach Charlie Strong. Strong entered 2016 badly in need of some good news following an 11-14 record and one bowl game in his first two seasons.
A 50-47 season-opening double-overtime win over Notre Dame looked like just that for Strong. The Longhorns bolted to No. 11 in the Associated Press Top 25 and looked like a potential Big 12 contender.
Those in Austin feel differently as October begins. A 49-31 loss to Oklahoma State dropped Texas to 2-2 and Strong to 13-16 as UT head coach. He’s one of only two Longhorns head coaches ever with a sub-.500 career record.
Strong completed a total makeover of his offense following 2015, hiring Sterlin Gilbert away from Tulsa to run the Air Raid offense. It has been successful, and true freshman quarterback Shane Buechele has been good. However, the defense has been awful, allowing at least 47 points to three of the first four opponents and yielding 38.3 points per game with Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and TCU still left on the schedule. That would be five points worse than the school record set in 1997.
Per Brian Davis of the Austin American-Statesman, Strong stripped defensive coordinator Vance Bedford of his play-calling duties, taking them over himself.
“One of the problems we’re facing is we’re not believing in what we do,” linebacker Malik Jefferson said Saturday, per Davis. “I’m not saying we don’t believe in each other as a team. We go out there and have a lack of confidence when we play games.”
Following the OSU loss, Texas athletic director Mike Perrin told reporters he was “evaluating everything,” not just Strong, per Davis. Texas is out of the Top 25, and whatever progress was made against a Fighting Irish team that is also out of the polls appears to be a mirage. SI.com's Pete Thamel reported that Texas is "very close" to letting Strong go at the end of the season.
One thing appears for certain: Strong is in trouble, and his seat is hotter than ever.
1. Darrell Hazell (Purdue)
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Darrell Hazell entered 2016 with one of the hottest seats in the FBS. Since arriving at Purdue from Kent State three seasons ago, Hazell is 6-30 in three full seasons, including 2-22 against Big Ten foes. And three of those wins came against FCS opponents.
In short, Hazell needs to show improvement this season—and a lot of it. So far, the Boilermakers haven’t done that. They’re 2-2 with wins over FCS team Eastern Kentucky and Nevada, and losses to Cincinnati and Maryland.
The defeat to Maryland could be particularly damaging. The Terrapins and first-year coach D.J. Durkin pounded Purdue 50-7, improving to 4-0. It’s tough to see how Purdue will scrape out four more wins, even against a Big Ten slate that doesn’t feature Michigan or Ohio State (but does have Wisconsin and Nebraska).
Couple that with the fact that Purdue has a new athletic director in Mike Bobinski, and it seems likely Purdue will be seeking a new coach at season’s end.
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