Tennessee vs. Texas A&M: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
Tennessee's Heart-Halting Hero Show heads west this weekend as the Volunteers make their first trip to Kyle Field to take on the Texas A&M Aggies as SEC opponents.
As has been the case for the past several years, it just so happens the Vols are getting their rotation SEC West opponents on an upswing.
Entering the game, UT is ranked No. 9 by the Associated Press, and fellow unbeaten A&M, led by head coach Kevin Sumlin and senior transfer quarterback Trevor Knight, is ranked a notch above at No. 8, having beaten Arkansas and UCLA to surge into the top 10.
This has all the trappings to be a really good football game, and ESPN's GameDay will make its third trip in four weeks to a Vols game.
Also, CBS Sports picked up the Vols-Aggies as its game of the week. However, unlike the other showdowns this season, UT actually enters the game as an underdog for the first time in 2016.
Maybe that can help the Vols get motivated early instead of having to storm back. If this one is anything like the rest of Tennessee's season, there will be plenty of fireworks. Let's take a look at all you need to know about this top-10 showdown.
Date: Saturday, October 8
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Place: Kyle Field
TV: CBS
Spread: Aggies by 6.5, according to Odds Shark
Tennessee Keys to Victory
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Four full quarters
Nobody on Rocky Top can explain why, but the Vols just can't seem to wake up until late in the second quarter or later.
That can't happen on the road against the Aggies or at home against No. 1 Alabama.
"I'm as mind-boggled as everyone on the slow starts," UT coach Butch Jones told GoVols247's Ryan Callahan. "Again, we'll keep making it a teach point. We've started practice different. We'll continue to emphasize this. But at the end of the day, the best you can be is 5-0, and we're 5-0."
Tennessee fell behind 17-0 against Georgia. The week before, it was a 21-0 hole against Florida, and the Vols were also down 14-0 to Virginia Tech and 13-0 to Appalachian State. The law of averages can't be good if UT continues to fall behind, especially against quality opponents.
The Vols need to start fast and keep it going this week.
Deploy Dobbs
For whatever reason, it doesn't seem the Vols coaching staff fully trusts quarterback Joshua Dobbs until they get down and have to. Then he takes over games.
Tennessee needs to let Dobbs be himself, integrating the quarterback runs early in the game, which opens up the offense. The Aggies lead the SEC in tackles for a loss with an astounding 50, so it doesn't appear the straight-up passing game or a standard offense will consistently yield positive results.
Dobbs is likely to be under pressure, and Tennessee has to shake things up to get Aggies defenders on their heels. Getting Dobbs loose quickly is the best thing for UT's offense.
If he can rip off a few key runs, the Vols should be able to pick on a susceptible A&M secondary. That's the best-case scenario for UT.
Texas A&M Keys to Victory
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Make 'em pay
Tennessee's record may be perfect, but the Vols certainly aren't. They've been lucky as well as good so far.
How lucky?
According to FoxSports.com's Stewart Mandel, UT has recovered 19 of 25 fumbles this season. That's a 76 percent clip, and it seems the ball is just bouncing Tennessee's way more often than not.
Some of those breaks starting going the other way in Tennessee's last-second win over Georgia this past weekend, as the Vols lost three turnovers. That was almost enough for their downfall, though the dramatic finish kept them unblemished.
"There's nothing saying this can't keep up, but the odds are small," SB Nation stat guru Bill Connelly told Mandel. "They'll probably have to simply beat those teams."
The Aggies are one of five SEC teams tied for second in takeaways with 10. If they can put UT in a hole with some turnovers and keep the pressure on for four quarters, they'll end the Vols' run of luck.
Fling it around
It's hard to say A&M has been prolific in the passing game, but third in the league isn't bad. Considering the Aggies had to replace Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray, this is a successful start for Sumlin and new offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone.
Credit former Oklahoma senior transfer Trevor Knight, who has done a good job distributing the ball to all the Aggies' playmakers, such as Josh Reynolds, Ricky Seals-Jones, Speedy Noil and Christian Kirk. Though Seals-Jones and Noil missed last week's game, it's uncertain whether they'll play.
Regardless, A&M has the weapons in the receiving corps to do damage to Tennessee's defensive backs, who are much more vulnerable without star Cameron Sutton, who is expected to miss most of the season after getting hurt against Ohio.
If Knight is throwing darts, it could be a long day for the Vols at Kyle Field.
Tennessee Players to Watch
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Derek Barnett
The junior defensive end is making a strong case for himself as the best defender in the entire SEC.
For long spurts during important games against Florida and Georgia, he took over the game. For his performances, he garnered SEC Defensive Player of the Week honors in consecutive weeks.
Against the Gators and Bulldogs, he totaled 10 tackles, four sacks, 5.5 tackles for a loss, a pass breakup and a crucial forced fumble of UGA quarterback Jacob Eason that was recovered by teammate Corey Vereen for a go-ahead, fourth-quarter touchdown.
That's domination. Now he goes against Myles Garrett, who is perceived as the best end in the league. Think Barnett won't have something to prove?
Jalen Hurd
Against Georgia, the Vols junior running back and leader made an uncharacteristic blunder that resulted in a crucial turnover just before he crossed the goal line.
Though he came right back with a touchdown grab, Hurd mysteriously missed the majority of the second half for what Jones called a "lower extremity injury." He's expected back this week, and he'll no doubt be looking to shed a little national embarrassment.
A big game on a big stage would be the remedy. Look for the Vols to ride him once again.
Colton Jumper
The junior walk-on was ridiculed on Vols message boards at times over sporadic playing time in each of the past two years. Since starter Darrin Kirkland Jr. was injured against Virginia Tech, however, all Jumper has done is lead the team in tackles the past two games.
Huge games against Florida and Georgia have made him an object of praise recently.
With Kirkland expected out this week again, he'll have another opportunity to shine. UT needs him again.
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Texas A&M Players to Watch
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Trayveon Williams
One of the biggest surprise players in the entire league this year has to be freshman running back Williams, who has provided the Aggies with a running threat they haven't had in years.
The 5'9", 200-pound first-year phenom is fourth in the SEC with 487 rushing yards and is first in average, coming in at more than nine yards per run. He's first nationally in that category for running backs with more than 35 carries.
UT has allowed several big plays this year, and if the Vols get out of their run gaps, Williams can make them pay in a big way.
"He's got real explosiveness," Sumlin told the Houston Chronicle's Brent Zwerneman.
Trevor Knight
Tennessee and Jones know all about Knight.
Back in 2014, he torched UT in Norman, Oklahoma, as the Sooners' quarterback. That was before injuries and inconsistency derailed his OU career, but after a resurgence, the Vols know what kind of quarterback he can be.
Knight has playmakers, led by Reynolds, and he can give the ball to Williams, too. With all those weapons, he can be the field general Sumlin so desperately needs. Tennessee would love to give him a little payback for that beating he led.
Myles Garrett
The freakish defensive end is the talk of everybody in the country because of his raw ability, and the Vols must account for him on every play, especially considering Daeshon Hall is on the same line.
While Florida provided the biggest test for the front seven, A&M could possibly have a more talented line. There's nobody more gifted than Garrett, who runs like a receiver and surges off the edge toward quarterbacks.
Dobbs must avoid him at all times in this Battle Royal between him and Barnett.
What They're Saying
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Tennessee fans are anxiously awaiting the return of star senior outside linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and sophomore middle linebacker Darrin Kirkland Jr. to fortify the defense.
Jones wasn't sugarcoating the outlook for this week for either of his second-level playmakers, according to USA Today Network reporter Rhiannon Potkey:
"We are continuing to gather information on Jalen Reeves-Maybin to try and make the best decision to present to him with his different options," Jones said, painting a picture that JRM's season could, at least potentially, be over.
As for Kirkland: "It’s kind of wait and see," Jones said. "He did do some running Thursday and Friday. Today he will do some different cutting drills to see if he can match the movement the linebacker position brings about with the different bursts and acceleration."
Sumlin told DallasNews.com that he wants Saturday's environment at Kyle Field to be hyped: "It'll be great to have it at home and in Kyle Field. It's been awhile since we've had a game like this. We want the 12th Man in full effect. I know that our fans will not disappoint. It ought to be a great atmosphere this Saturday."
Barnett told the Chattanooga Times Free-Press' Patrick Brown that he was giddy about the win over Georgia, but it didn't take him long to turn his attention toward A&M: "I enjoyed every moment of it. I ran around a little bit and celebrated. But it's just one game, like I always say. We've got a good team coming up next week, and I can't wait."
A&M's 24-13 win over South Carolina last weekend certainly wasn't pretty, but none of that matters to Knight, as he told AggieSports.com's Robert Cessna: "We still have a zero after that dash mark in the win-and-lose column, and we couldn’t be happier about that," he said.
Prediction
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Say what you want about Tennessee not playing four quarters or playing up or down to its competition—it's all true. But the Vols are a spotless 5-0, and regardless of style points, that's all that matters.
Butch Jones' team never quits. The Vols play with relentlessness and resilience, and with the game on the line, they make all the plays they need to.
Last weekend, they came away with an improbable, game-winning 43-yard Hail Mary to stun Georgia as time expired. Before that, they erased a 21-point deficit against Florida with 38 unanswered second-half points to end an 11-year drought.
What do they have saved for the Aggies?
The oddsmakers think the Vols' luck will run out this week, putting A&M at nearly a touchdown favorite at home. While that would probably be the safe pick, who's going to bet against the Vols at this point?
Not me. They've burned me too much this season. They just find ways to get the win. They're seasoned, they're a veteran bunch and they've got the talent to hang with anybody they play. That's why I'm taking the Vols to make just one more play than the Aggies this weekend.
If they do, it's going to be a 3-0 start to this four-game midseason gauntlet, with rival Alabama awaiting in Knoxville next weekend. This game at Kyle Field is an extremely tall task, but the Vols are up to it.
Vols 38, Texas A&M 33
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