Bowl Projections 2016: Predictions, Updated College Football Playoff Outlook

After a thrilling weekend of college football action, it's hard not to start thinking about potential bowl matchups.

So let's make some predictions, shall we?

Below, I'll break down my projected matchups for the season's biggest bowl games and provide some analysis for my choices. 

Bowl	Date	Projected Matchup
Holiday Bowl	Dec. 27	Michigan State vs. UCLA
Russell Athletic Bowl	Dec. 28	North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State
Alamo Bowl	Dec. 29	Baylor vs. Utah
Orange Bowl	Dec. 30	Miami vs. Texas A&M
Citrus Bowl	Dec. 31	Nebraska vs. Ole Miss
TaxSlayer Bowl	Dec. 31	Florida State vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl (Playoff Semifinal)	Dec. 31	Ohio State vs. Clemson
Peach Bowl (Playoff Semifinal)	Dec. 31	Alabama vs. Louisville
Outback Bowl	Jan. 2	Wisconsin vs. Florida
Cotton Bowl	Jan. 2	Houston vs. Stanford
Rose Bowl	Jan. 2	Michigan vs. Washington
Sugar Bowl	Jan. 2	Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
National Championship	Jan. 9	Ohio State vs. Louisville

Alabama can't win the national championship every year, right?

What's that? We should probably approach this from a more logical standpoint?

Fine. So, how do we get to the place where Alabama reaches the College Football Playoff but doesn't win the title?

Well, his name is Lamar Jackson. And while he needs to actually get Louisville to the playoff, I believe he's the perfect kryptonite to Alabama's super-dynasty.

For the Cardinals to even be in the discussion, they'll need two things to happen:

• They need to win out.
• They need less than four schools from power conferences to remain undefeated once the dust settles.

The first won't be an easy task. While the most difficult stretch of Louisville's schedule is behind them, No. 6 Houston still looms on Nov. 17. That game will likely have huge playoff implications for both teams. But after watching Jackson come this close to pulling off a victory on the road at Clemson, I'm convinced the Cardinals can handle a talented Houston team, even if that game is on the road.

Louisville may not get into the ACC title game—I don't envision Clemson losing again this regular season—but that may not matter.

For starters, Alabama and Ohio State will run the table. That means schools such as Tennessee, Texas A&M, Nebraska and Michigan will also absorb losses. If those two teams run the table—no small feat—they'll be the top two seeds in the playoff, no questions asked. That will leave Clemson at No. 3 and then a host of schools fighting for No. 4.

It's hard to imagine the committee keeping Washington out of the playoff if it goes undefeated. Yes, Stanford and Utah will be the Huskies' most impressive wins in that scenario. But would Louisville's wins over Houston and Florida State, combined with a loss to Clemson, represent a better resume? 

My guess is no. It's a guess, of course.

But things get way more interesting if a few more teams have a loss. In a scenario where there aren't any undefeated teams or, say, one undefeated team—again, it's hard to see Clemson slipping up the rest of the way—the committee will probably favor those teams that win their conferences.

So, for instance, in a scenario where Ohio State and Michigan each have a loss but one of those teams wins the conference title, that team will get the nod, unless it happens to have a really bad loss on its resume. 

In all scenarios, it seems likely that an SEC, ACC and Big Ten school will be in the playoff, and it seems just as likely—barring a school such as Washington or Houston running the table—that one of those conferences will have two representatives in the playoff. 

So we'll ultimately be comparing resumes. Let's say Michigan loses to Ohio State, on the road, but has wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State as its main attractions. Maybe Texas A&M loses to Alabama but beats Tennessee to go along with wins over UCLA, Arkansas and Ole Miss. Maybe Washington has a loss and Houston drops a game to Louisville, and maybe Miami even runs the table but loses to Clemson in the ACC title game.

Which school deserves to get into the dance after Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson?

Louisville seems like a solid option. I don't have a chair on the College Football Playoff selection committee, of course, and some insane scenario that I haven't laid out above will ultimately happen and turn everything on its head. But after watching Louisville a few times this season, I'm convinced they are a top-four team in the country.

And I think Jackson would give Alabama's defense—every defense, really—fits.

Versatile quarterbacks have given Alabama trouble in recent years.

Season	Opponent	QB	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	Total TD	INT
2015	Ole Miss	Chad Kelly	341	21	4	0
2014	Ole Miss	Bo Wallace	251	32	3	0
2014	Ohio State	Cardale Jones	243	43	1	1
2013	Auburn	Nick Marshall	97	99	3	0
2013	Oklahoma	Trevor Knight	348	7	4	1

Let's not forget about Deshaun Watson nearly leading Clemson past Alabama in the title game last year, accumulating 478 yards of offense, four passing touchdowns and an interception. Or Dak Prescott and Mississippi State almost knocking off the Crimson Tide in 2014, behind the quarterback's 290 passing yards, 82 rushing yards and two scores (though he did throw three interceptions).

This year, Chad Kelly again took Alabama to the brink, throwing for 421 yards and three scores and rushing for an additional 43 yards. Ole Miss lost, giving up a big lead before nearly mounting an epic comeback of their own, but it was another reminder that if Alabama has a weak spot, it has struggled against teams with dynamic quarterbacks and explosive offenses.

Of course, most teams can say the same. But it's hard to beat Alabama. It generally either takes a special defensive performance, a wild finish or a huge performance from a talented quarterback. Jackson checks off that third box. 

"You can prepare all you want and guys can run the plan perfectly and be right where they are supposed to be and he will still make you look awful," Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney told Ryan McGee of ESPN.com. "[I'd just as soon] never have to see him again. I'll buy a ticket to see him."

So, yes, Jackson may be enough to get Louisville past Alabama. But if Jackson can lead Louisville past Alabama, can he get it past Ohio State as well?

Well, no. Because the Buckeyes have the most talent in the nation and will win the title this year.

Mel Kiper of ESPN (via ABC News) said of Ohio State: "The scary thing is they are really young and could be the best team in the country by November."

In that same article, ESPN's Todd McShay added: 

"

It's evident the Buckeyes have matured a ton since the start of the season, with their 58-0 blowout win over Rutgers being the latest example. I'd expect them to continue to get better, and with the Michigan game in Columbus this year, I still like their chances to win the Big Ten. If that all happens, it'll mean the Buckeyes are battle-tested, with wins over Michigan and Wisconsin on their resume. And it'll also mean these young pups are as good as advertised. 

"

Ohio State isn't young or inexperienced at the key position of quarterback, which is important. J.T. Barrett is the real deal, and he's capable of keeping the Buckeyes competitive in any shootout. He's also currently in the Heisman running. And he has a wealth of talent to support him.

Raw talent doesn't always win out. But October just began, and making projections about late December aren't easy. For now, we're still guessing as to which team is the best in the nation, and Ohio State will grow into that distinction. If the title game was tomorrow, I'd probably take Alabama. 

No matter when it is, Jackson will have a say. But a lot will change between now and late December.

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.