Predicting Biggest College Football Upsets for October
At the exact moment when a given college football season appears settled, with the future slowly becoming clear, upsets complicate the discussion.
October is an important month for division—and conference—championship dreams, and several teams won't survive the slate. Consequently, the "biggest" upsets in this piece focus on five games that will have a noticeable impact on conference races, most specifically the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12.
We project the five-week stretch to be quiet in terms of upsets by unranked teams against top programs, so as opinions vary, the shock value may be lacking to some.
Then again, that could mean the upcoming slate is destined to be full of madness. In that case, you're welcome.
5. LSU vs. Florida
1 of 5
When: Oct. 8 at noon ET
September was not kind to LSU. However, the optimist would tell you the Tigers are still alive in the SEC West.
LSU needs a statement victory, and a ranked Florida team provides that chance. As long as quarterback Luke Del Rio is healthy, the Gators should enter the contest as the favorites at home.
No matter the outcome, though, the loser will effectively be eliminated from contention for a division title. Florida will lose the tiebreaker over Tennessee, and simply put for LSU, Alabama isn't losing twice.
The Tigers may struggle against a tough Missouri defense in their first contest post-Les Miles, but they'll rebound on the road and keep Florida from returning to the SEC Championship Game.
For LSU, this would be a "big" upset because it can stabilize the team's outlook for the rest of 2016.
4. Iowa vs. Minnesota
2 of 5
When: Oct. 8 at noon ET
North Dakota State already provided the biggest upset of the year, but the Bison provided a blueprint for havoc in the Big Ten West. Minnesota can follow that plan to perfection.
The Gophers boast a three-headed rushing attack with Shannon Brooks, Rodney Smith and Mitch Leidner. Kobe McCrary also rattled off a 176-yard performance when Brooks was sidelined.
Iowa barely survived Rutgers, and the offense will be without leading receiver Matt VandeBerg for the remainder of the season. The Hawkeyes won't enjoy their trip to Minneapolis.
Conversely, Minnesota can officially assert itself as a contender in the West Division, especially with a victory over Penn State one week before hosting Iowa.
3. Nebraska vs. Indiana
3 of 5
When: Oct. 15 at 3:30 p.m. ET
It feels like Indiana is destined to ruin a national championship hopeful's season sometime in the near future. But the Hoosiers will have to settle for upending conference dreams in 2016.
Nebraska has quietly climbed the rankings, headlined by victories over Oregon and Northwestern, to No. 15 in the nation. As ranked teams keep losing, voter predictability should lead to the Huskers earning Top 10 status heading into Indiana.
But when the college football world starts to pay attention to the unsuspecting undefeated team, Nebraska will fall.
Quarterback Richard Lagow will propel the Hoosiers—who took Michigan to two overtimes last season—to a stunning win, and the Huskers will lose their margin for error in the Big Ten West.
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2. Auburn vs. Ole Miss
4 of 5
When: Oct. 29 at TBD
Ole Miss has a bizarre trend of losing SEC West games late in the season, and history will repeat itself.
As an 8-2 team fighting for its division life in 2014, the Rebels lost to Arkansas 30-0. Last year, the Razorbacks topped Ole Miss in a 53-52 thriller that cost Hugh Freeze's club the division.
But this year, that wouldn't be a significant upset. Auburn, on the other hand, is an average but annoying team. The Carl Lawson-led defense contained Clemson, limited Texas A&M to a 2-of-15 mark on third down and helped the program defeat LSU.
The Rebels dropping a second conference game will shatter their fleeting hopes of recovering in the division standings.
1. Texas Tech vs. TCU
5 of 5
When: Oct. 29 at TBD
Few games were more enjoyable in 2015 than TCU's shootout with Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs escaped Lubbock with a victory on a last-minute touchdown off a deflection.
This year, TCU's defense has improved since the opening two games, but the Red Raiders—who, admittedly, can stop approximately zero teams from scoring—will be a menace to stop.
Now, there's a big asterisk here: Patrick Mahomes II left Texas Tech's win over Kansas due to a shoulder injury. As of this writing, his status is unknown. However, head coach Kliff Kinsgbury said it "sounds like [Mahomes] should be OK," per ESPN.com's Max Olson.
Backup quarterback Nic Shimonek assembled a masterful game in relief, but that was against Kansas. Mahomes put up 428 total yards on TCU last season while limping around with one good ankle.
If Mahomes' shoulder is fine, the Red Raiders will stun the Frogs—and the Big 12 may be down to Baylor as the only program even in the College Football Playoff conversation.
All recruiting information via Scout. Stats from cfbstats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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