Why Ohio State's J.T. Barrett Is the Perfect Heisman Trophy Candidate
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Since arriving at Ohio State, Urban Meyer has been clear what his expectation has been for his starting quarterback.
"If you're going to play quarterback at Ohio State, you need to be a Heisman candidate," Meyer said. "If you play quarterback at Ohio State in this offense, you have to be a Heisman candidate, or we're going to suffer."
The Heisman Trophy Trust seems to agree.
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Since the award's inception in 1935, a clear-cut profile has formed when it comes to whom voters cast their ballots for. Be it the position the candidate plays, where he plays it or the numbers he puts up while doing so, voters—intentional or not—have developed unspoken criteria for college football's most prestigious individual award.
And to the delight of his head coach, Buckeyes quarterback J.T. Barrett checks off all the boxes Heisman voters are looking for in 2016.
While Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson is the clear Heisman front-runner, per Odds Shark, when it comes to candidates with staying power, Barrett may be your best bet. As chronicled on his website, HeismanPundit.com, Chris Huston has developed a list of 10 "Heismandments," which serve as indicators of a player's Heisman worthiness.
Huston has since left to work for the actual Heisman Trust, but his Heismandments—which accurately predicted the top four finishers in each Heisman Trophy poll from 2008 to 2012—still stand.
As they relate to Barrett, you won't find a more prototypical prospect for the Stiff-Arm Trophy.
And while Jackson may appear to be the stronger candidate right now—and could win the award should he continue his record-setting pace—it's the Ohio State signal-caller who has the inside track, should traditional voting trends remain true.
The Heismandments, according to Huston, are as follows.
1. The winner must be a quarterback, a running back or a multithreat athlete.
Barrett obviously checks off this box, as do other current Heisman Trophy candidates such as Jackson and Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson. And while Michigan defensive weapon Jabrill Peppers is in the conversation, he'll need to bolster his presence on the Wolverines offense to remain there.
It's also worth noting 13 of the last 16 Heisman winners, like Barrett, have been quarterbacks.
2. Juniors and seniors have the overwhelming advantage in the Heisman race and, as a general rule, will win over an underclassman if all other factors are equal. Underclassmen can overcome this disadvantage only through extraordinary single-season production.
The strength of this Heismandment may have been weakened over the years, with three straight sophomores winning from 2007 to 2009 and back-to-back redshirt freshmen winning in 2012 and 2013, but historically, it holds true. Of the 80 unique Heisman winners, 75 have been upperclassmen.
A fourth-year junior, Barrett need not worry about failing to live up to this standard. Given the numbers Jackson has posted to this point, however, his status as a true sophomore likely wouldn't prevent him from winning the award either.
3. The winner must produce good numbers in high-profile games on TV.
In this regard, Barrett is 1-for-1. In Ohio State's prime-time showdown with Oklahoma in Week 3, the Buckeyes signal-caller completed 14 of his 20 passing attempts for 152 yards and four touchdowns, adding 74 yards on the ground in Ohio State's 45-24 slamming of the Sooners.
Still ahead for Barrett and the Buckeyes remain prime-time matchups against Wisconsin, Penn State, Nebraska, Michigan State, Michigan and a potential Big Ten title game.
While Jackson has already done his part in high-profile battles against Florida State and Clemson and still has games against Houston and a potential ACC Championship Game in front of him, Barrett will be showcased more frequently in front of the national audience.
After a slow start, Watson's Heisman candidacy, meanwhile, is just gaining steam thanks to this very 'Heismandment.' In a prime-time 42-36 win over Jackson's Cardinals, the Tigers' signal-caller reasserted himself as legitimate Heisman contender with a 397-yard, five-touchdown outing.
4. The winner must have some prior name recognition.
This is another category where Barrett may have an edge on Jackson.
Whereas Jackson burst onto the scene this season with statistically shocking showings against Charlotte and Syracuse before becoming the Heisman front-runner with his 479-yard, seven-touchdown outing against Marshall, Barrett has been viewed as a Heisman candidate since the 2015 season ended.
As recently as Aug. 30, Jackson's Heisman odds were listed at 50-1, while Barrett possessed a more realistic shot at winning the award with 10-1 odds, per Odds Shark.
In essence, Jackson is still new to some Heisman voters, while Barrett was a legitimate candidate in 2014 when he finished fifth in the voting and was still one of college football's most prominent players a year ago. It won't be the deciding factor, but Barrett's three-year status as one of college football's most famous players could be a pre-existing bias for at least some voters, the same of which could be said for Watson, who finished third in last season's Heisman vote.
5. The winner must be one or more of the following three: (A) The top player on a national title contender. (B) A player who puts up good numbers for a traditional power with good record, or (C) A player who puts up superlative single-season or career numbers on a good team, or produces numbers that are way out ahead of his Heisman competitors.
So long as Ohio State remains in the playoff hunt, Barrett qualifies for option A, and he's almost assuredly a lock to fulfill the obligations of option B. As for option C, Barrett could and likely will post career numbers in the Buckeyes offense, but given the pace Jackson has already set, he'll almost assuredly lag behind his counterpart.
If Barrett can keep his numbers in the same ballpark as Jackson's, however, the respective overall success of Ohio State and Louisville could wind up playing a bigger role in the Heisman race. Right now, the Buckeyes have that edge—although Watson and Clemson remain firmly entrenched in the playoff picture as well.
6. The winner cannot be considered an obvious product of his team’s system.
This one is interesting, because for all intents and purposes, Ohio State runs a quarterback-stats-friendly system—as does Louisville.
In fact, when Meyer was talking about his quarterbacks' need to play at a Heisman candidate-level, that's what he meant.
"I get a little upset when I hear, 'He's a system quarterback,'" Meyer said in 2014, as Cardale Jones filled in seamlessly for Barrett during the Buckeyes' run to the College Football Playoff National Championship. "Damn right he is."
As the Heisman's recent history has shown, that type of stigma won't be held against Meyer or his signal-callers. If anything, it's Meyer who's helped shatter that sentiment with Heisman voters, as it was his quarterback at Florida, Tim Tebow, who set a new standard for the award when he tallied 4,181 total yards and 55 touchdowns in his Heisman-winning season of 2007.
"The last six Heisman-winning quarterbacks have averaged 4,292 yards of total offense and 47 combined touchdowns and a 181.3 passer rating," Huston told Bleacher Report in 2014, the same season Oregon's Marcus Mariota won the award with 5,224 total yards and 57 touchdowns. "If you’re gonna win the Heisman in this day and age if you’re a quarterback, you pretty much need to have 4,000 yards of total offense and 40 touchdowns. That’s pretty much been the standard since Tim Tebow won the Heisman."
Considering Tebow won the award while playing in Meyer's system and Barrett already has a fifth-place finish to his credit, the Ohio State signal-caller has nothing to worry about.
7. If you are a quarterback, running back or multipurpose athlete at one of the following schools–Notre Dame, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Miami, Florida and Florida State–you have a good chance to win if you have a very good statistical season and your team wins at least nine games.
Barrett not only meets all of the criteria here in a Heismandment, but it's also one that could give him the edge over both Jackson and Watson. Fair or not, players at more prominent programs historically have better odds at winning the Heisman.
Tied with Notre Dame for the most Heisman Trophies with seven, Ohio State may be the most friendly Heisman school out there.
"Ohio State is a traditional Heisman power," Huston said. "If you have this kind of season for Ohio State, and Ohio State goes 12-1, this is better than if you put up the same numbers for a 12-1 team at Baylor, for example, or Mississippi State."
That's not to say it can't be done. In just the past few years, Heismans have been awarded to players at nontraditional powers such as Baylor, Texas A&M and Oregon.
But if you play at a school like Ohio State, history shows you do indeed have a better chance.
8. Statistical benchmarks exist for each position to help voters gauge a player’s "Heisman worthiness."
For a dual-threat quarterback, Huston sets the mark at 3,500 yards of total offense, 35 combined touchdowns and a passer rating of 140 or better.
Four games into the 2016 season, Barrett is already well on his way. With 1,093 total yards, 17 total touchdowns and a 183.1 passer rating to his credit, Barrett should have no problem meeting those marks through the next eight games, even as competition increases in Big Ten play.
The only question is how Barrett's numbers will compare should Jackson remain on his record-setting pace, as through his first five games the Cardinals quarterback is on track for 5,551 yards and 67 total touchdowns.
9. There will never be another two-time Heisman winner.
This isn't a problem for Barrett—or Jackson—and it's one Ohio State fans won't take issue with as they'd prefer that former Buckeyes running back Archie Griffin (1974 and 1975) remains the only two-time winner in history.
With at least one year of eligibility remaining after this season, Jackson has the potential to threaten Griffin's status as the lone two-time Heisman winner should he take it this year. But as far as Barrett's 2016 candidacy is concerned, this shouldn't be an issue.
10. The winner must be likable.
Arguably the most subjective of the Heismandments, it's not as easy to see where Barrett fits on this scale. By any measure, Barrett seems likable enough to win the award, although it's worth mentioning he does have a 2015 citation for operating a vehicle while intoxicated on his record.
While not apples-to-apples comparisons, Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston did manage to win the Heisman in 2013 while under investigation for sexual assault, three years after Cam Newton won it at Auburn while dealing with the scrutiny of alleged NCAA violations. Furthermore, more than a year will have passed since Barrett's OVI when the 2016 Heisman Trophy is handed out.
In his dealings with the media since entering the public spotlight, Barrett has had a habit of saying all the right things while maintaining an open, honest personality. Even when asked about the Heisman Trophy in particular, Barrett has put his team first, conceding he may just not be flashy enough to win the award.
"My main thing is winning," Barrett said. "That's what I'm about. If winning gives me a Heisman Trophy then I'm OK with that. But I'm not about to do anything outside of myself in order to get a Heisman Trophy. I'm gonna be who I am. I like how I play, how I approach the game."
Barrett may be right; Jackson's flash and eye-popping numbers may be too much to overcome. At this point, there's a reason the Louisville signal-caller is listed as such an overwhelming favorite by oddsmakers.
History, however, says otherwise.
When it comes to 2016, there isn't a player in the race who checks off all the boxes quite like Barrett does.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod.
Unless otherwise noted, all quotes were obtained firsthand. Recruiting and class ratings courtesy of Scout.com.
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