Florida State vs. Miami: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
What's old is new again in college football, with past great programs such as Colorado, Nebraska and Washington all experiencing a resurgence this season. The same can be said for the Florida State-Miami rivalry, which will feature both teams ranked for the first time since 2013 and only the third time in the last 10 meetings.
Miami (4-0, 1-0 ACC) is 10th in the latest Associated Press poll, its highest ranking since October 2013 when it was 7-0 heading to Florida State but lost 41-14. The Seminoles (3-2, 0-2) are No. 23 after losing on a last-second field goal at home to North Carolina and are off to their worst start in ACC play since 2011.
This series has featured plenty of great finishes, particularly in the 1980s and 1990s when both programs were at their pinnacle, though of late it's been all FSU. Will the Seminoles claim a seventh straight win over Miami or will the Hurricanes continue their hot start under first-year coach Mark Richt?
Viewing Information
Date: Saturday, Oct. 8
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Place: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
TV: ABC
Spread: Miami -1.5 (per Odds Shark)
Florida State Keys to Victory
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Prevent the big plays
Florida State's defense is performing at a historically bad level, allowing more points in its first five games (177) than ever before in program history. The Seminoles rank 105th nationally in scoring defense, at 35.4 points allowed per game, and they drop to 115th (42.3) against FBS competition.
It's not that the 'Noles are giving up a lot of yards, only 438.4 per game, but it's how opponents are getting those yards. Namely, in big chunks.
FSU has yielded 20 plays of 30 or more yards, second-worst in the country. It allowed only 11 such plays all last season.
Get ahead of the sticks
With the defense doing the offense no favors, FSU has been in score-every-time mode for most of this season. But that requires being able to produce on a regular basis, particularly on third down.
The Seminoles are converting on 45.3 percent of their third downs, ranking a respectable 39th in FBS, but in losses to Louisville and North Carolina they were a combined 6-of-24. On Saturday their first third-down conversion came in the fourth quarter.
FSU has faced 3rd-and-10 or more 23 times this season, converting only seven times.
Miami Keys to Victory
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Swarm the backfield
Miami is second nationally in scoring defense, allowing 11 points per game, and seventh in total defense (253.3 yards per game). The formula for that success has been simple: to wreak havoc on an opponent's quarterback and ball-carriers and keep them from getting settled.
The Hurricanes have 16 sacks, with 10 players contributing to that tally and none having more than three. They're first in FBS at 12 tackles per loss per game, getting four or more TFLs from seven different players.
Miami is one of just two teams—along with Ohio State—that hasn't allowed a play of more than 40 yards, with only 13 going for 20 or more in four games.
Stay balanced
Miami ranks second in FBS at 8.18 yards per play on offense, the result of great play-calling that puts equal emphasis on the run and the pass. It's one of 30 schools averaging at least 200 rushing and 200 passing yards per game.
Though the Hurricanes have run only 232 offensive plays, second-fewest in the country, they've managed a first down on nearly one-third (77) of them. They've faced third down just 40 times, eight fewer than any other team in FBS.
Florida State Players to Watch
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Dalvin Cook
Redshirt freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has garnered quite a bit of attention for his performance to date, and deservedly so. But just as it was last season, Florida State's offense is built around Cook's running ability.
He set the school single-season rushing record in 2015 with 1,691 yards and is on pace to challenge that number this year. He's run for 635 yards and seven touchdowns so far, averaging 5.93 yards per carry with 407 yards and five TDs in the Seminoles' last two games.
The 5'11”, 213-pound junior has 3,334 yards for his career, third-most in school history. He's 626 yards shy of passing Warrick Dun for the all-time FSU mark.
DeMarcus Walker
Walker's main motivations for returning to Florida State for his senior year were team-related, saying he wanted to "end my career here like I started it in 2013" (h/t Florida Times-Union) with a national championship. That goal is no longer, with the Seminoles having lost twice already, but his performance in 2016 should benefit him when next year's NFL draft comes around.
The 6'4”, 280-pound defensive end has a team-high 6.5 sacks this season, with 4.5 coming in the Labor Day win over Ole Miss. He had a career-best 10.5 sacks in 2015, when he also had 58 tackles.
Walker has been openly critical of his play this fall, though. After the UNC loss on Saturday he told Safid Deen of the Orlando Sentinel "you will never see somebody out-hustle, run to the ball, lead, out-work me from now on."
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Miami Players to Watch
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Brad Kaaya
Miami's starting quarterback since the first game of his true freshman season in 2014, Kaaya has provided a level of consistency and reliability that's invaluable. His numbers don't jump off the page, but they also don't show any glaring weaknesses.
The junior has thrown for 935 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions on 66.3 percent passing. He's completed 34 of his last 46 passes for 609 yards and four scores in road wins over Appalachian State and Georgia Tech.
Kaaya is slowly creeping up Miami's career passing chart, sitting fifth with 7,371 yards. He's 2,195 behind leader Ken Dorsey.
Mark Walton and Joseph Yearby
Miami uses a two-man backfield with Walton and Yearby mostly splitting the carries, and it's worked to perfection. Walton, a sophomore, has run for 445 yards and eight touchdowns, nearly matching his numbers (461 yards, nine TDs) from all of last season, while junior Yearby has added 321 yards and five scores.
They've combined for five 100-yard games, each topping that mark in the Hurricanes' first two contests, and each has scored at least once every week. According to Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press, Walton and Yearby are the only FBS teammates with at least one rushing TD in every game this season.
What They're Saying
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Florida State has been a perennial national championship contender the last several seasons, but after losing twice in its first five games, any hope of making the playoffs is over. But that doesn't mean the Seminoles don't have something to play for, coach Jimbo Fisher noted after Saturday's loss to North Carolina (h/t SB Nation):
"Why is the season over? See this playoff thing? Who cares. I mean, if you're out of the playoffs, good. Now you've got pride. You've got seasons. You've got winning streaks. You've got to be what you want to be, what kind of team you want to be, what kind of person you want to be? There is a name on the back of your jersey, every time you play, you represent it. There is a name on the front of your jersey, and every time you play you represent it. That's what you play for.
"
First-year Miami coach Mark Richt is no stranger to the importance of winning rivalry games from his time at Georgia, where beating Florida each year (or not doing so) often mattered more than everything else. He also knows how hyped up fans get for such games, but he's hoping the 8 p.m. ET start doesn't make for too much partying and thus wear them out before kickoff (h/t Matt Porter of the Palm Beach Post):
"I know our fans will be off the chain. I want to ask the fans to save a little energy for the game. I know it’s a long tailgate. You’ve got to pace yourself.
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Prediction
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Florida State has had Miami's number this decade, winning the last six meetings by an average of 13.2 points, but the last two games went down to the wire. And those were before Mark Richt came along and re-energized the Hurricanes, a factor that can't be ignored.
Miami is playing with tremendous confidence while FSU is limping into this game having lost two of three. The Seminoles aren't used to playing spoilers and won't be able to just flip a switch and put behind their recent struggles.
Don't expect a blowout, not with the talent FSU has at its disposal. But until the 'Noles can figure out how to slow opponents down, they're going to have trouble winning on a consistent basis.
Miami 30, Florida State 23
All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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