Ranking the Worst NBA Contracts Entering the 2016-17 Season
All members of the NBA make a lot of money, but some of them earn too much.
We're not talking about players such as LeBron James and Kevin Durant who would be paid twice as much in a free market. We're not referring to unproven first-year contributors who are brimming over with potential while operating on rookie-scale deals.
These are the veterans who have signed contracts their performances don't justify. Some are aging players with lengthy injury histories. Others are parlaying previous potential into unnecessarily gaudy deals. Others are overpaid because their teams may just have had money to burn.
Whatever the reasons, we're looking at the 10 players whose expected levels of play just can't come close to matching the money they're owed.
Honorable Mention: Chris Bosh
1 of 11
Team: Miami Heat
Age: 32
Remaining Contract: $23.7M in 2016-17, $25.3M in 2017-18, $26.8M in 2018-19
The contracts that actually make our rankings were all avoidable situations. They were handed out to risky players, injury-prone contributors or guys who just didn't deserve that much cash.
But Chris Bosh's situation is different; no one is truly to blame for what happened.
After his pre-training camp setback, which, according to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson, made playing for the Miami Heat "unrealistic," Bosh has no expected return date. In fact, team president Pat Riley told Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel, "We feel that, based on the last exam, that his [Bosh's] Heat career is probably over.
If the big man is medically unable to resume his career in February and is forced into retirement, insurance will cover roughly 50 percent of his salary. If he's able to return after that diagnosis, he won't be able to play in a Heat uniform.
For Miami, the owed money is the definition of a sunk cost—and an expensive one at that. But again, there was no reason to believe this unfortunate possibility would become a reality, and we're willing to grant the organization a bit of forgiveness.
10. Eric Gordon
2 of 11
Team: Houston Rockets
Age: 27
Remaining Contract: $12.4M in 2016-17, $12.9M in 2017-18, $13.5M in 2018-19, $14.1M in 2019-20
Fresh off the expiration of his near-max deal with the New Orleans Pelicans, Eric Gordon inked a four-year, $53 million contract with the Houston Rockets. He's no longer eating up as large a percentage of the salary cap, but he's still receiving far more money than he deserves.
Even if we assume the 27-year-old remains healthy in his new digs, his game doesn't justify such a massive payday. Though his shooting from beyond the arc remains valuable, he's stopped attacking the basket (his 3.0 free-throw attempts per 36 minutes in 2015-16 were the second-lowest mark of his career) and remains woefully inadequate on the defensive end.
That's problematic enough, regardless of whether Gordon retains value as a sharpshooting specialist who should knock down plenty of treys under new head coach Mike D'Antoni. It's even more troubling that there's no evidence that Gordon can or will stay healthy.
He hasn't played in 65 or more games since his rookie season—all the way back in 2008-09 when he was still with the Los Angeles Clippers and brimming over with potential that would never be fully realized. Since heading to New Orleans, he's averaged just 44 appearances per campaign.
Usually, players have more trouble staying on the court as they age, and Gordon isn't getting any younger.
9. Wesley Matthews
3 of 11
Team: Dallas Mavericks
Age: 29
Remaining Contract: $17.1M in 2016-17, $17.9M in 2017-18, $18.6M in 2018-19
Recovering from an Achilles injury is tough for any NBA player, much less a two-way wing whose defensive game is predicated upon athleticism. Wesley Matthews is now more than a year removed from tearing his left Achilles, but the 29-year-old shooting guard is still working his way back.
That much was clear throughout the 2015-16 campaign as he struggled to maintain his three-point percentage (36.0 on 6.7 attempts per game) and point-preventing excellence. What's more, because he had to spend time guarding bigger players and covering up for Chandler Parsons, he was actually a negative on defense, according to both defensive box plus/minus and ESPN.com's defensive real plus/minus.
Maybe he'll bounce back. His pedigree as a shooter is unbesmirched, and the addition of Harrison Barnes should allow him to focus on stopping opposing 2s.
However, it's not likely that the previous season was merely an outlier, given the circumstances. Matthews posted a career-worst player efficiency rating (10.9), the fewest win shares of his NBA tenure (3.7) and his worst box plus/minus since his rookie year (0.5). He was nothing more than average.
The Dallas Mavericks are banking on him not only fully recovering from his devastating injury but doing so as he moves into his 30s and as his athleticism decline. It's not a smart bet, and it could be particularly painful when he's owed nearly $19 million during his age-32 season.
8. Austin Rivers
4 of 11
Team: Los Angeles Clippers
Age: 24
Remaining Contract: $11M in 2016-17, $11.8M in 2017-18, $12.7M in 2018-19 (Player Option)
Paying Austin Rivers half the salary he'll make over the next three years—and rest assured that he won't be turning down that player option in 2018-19—would still be handing him way too much money. Though he's young enough to continue improving and has gotten slightly better during each season of his professional career, he has yet to become a positive on either end.
Take a gander at his career progression, per NBA Math's total points added:
| 2012-13 | Minus-94.1 | Minus-52.28 | Minus-146.38 |
| 2013-14 | Minus-38.58 | Minus-64.3 | Minus-102.88 |
| 2014-15 | Minus-51.6 | Minus-36.42 | Minus-88.02 |
| 2015-16 | Minus-35.06 | Minus-29.22 | Minus-64.28 |
The 2015-16 campaign saw him play his best basketball yet, both offensively and defensively. But he's still not an asset. He won't even be a league-average contributor until the end of 2018-19, assuming he continues to follow this pattern of linear growth.
Rivers should be an end-of-the-bench player, and it comes as no surprise that the Los Angeles Clippers were 13.2 points per 100 possessions better with him off the court last year. Instead, he's paid like someone who should be in the running for Sixth Man of the Year, and his father/head coach may well play him in that type of leading role.
7. Nikola Pekovic
5 of 11
Team: Minnesota Timberwolves
Age: 30
Remaining Contract: $12.1M in 2016-17, $11.6M in 2017-18
When Nikola Pekovic signed a five-year deal worth $60 million prior to the start of the 2013-14 season, no one could've predicted the Minnesota Timberwolves would get ripped off—not to this extent, at least. The big man was valuable during the first season of his new contract but played only 31 games during the 2014-15 campaign, then followed that up with just 12 appearances in 2015-16.
Now, he's set to miss all of 2016-17, per the Star Tribune's Kent Youngblood.
"We were hopeful he would respond well," head coach Tom Thibodeau told Youngblood about the center's attempts to rehab his recurring foot and ankle issues. "There have been some good days, but there have been a lot of setbacks as well.''
Worse still, the Associated Press' Jon Krawczynski reports that it's "highly doubtful he plays again."
Insurance should cover the 'Wolves for this faulty investment, but that doesn't make this contract any better. That's especially true because, unlike a potentially career-ending injury to a star player such as Bosh, Pekovic wasn't exactly performing at a high level during his most recent appearances. There's little hope for value even if he bucks the odds and does play.
6. Jamal Crawford
6 of 11
Team: Los Angeles Clippers
Age: 36
Remaining Contract: $13.3M in 2016-17, $14.3M in 2017-18, $14.5M in 2018-19
Jamal Crawford may be coming off a Sixth Man of the Year season, but winning the award doesn't make him valuable.
Voters were likely swayed by raw scoring figures during a season in which injuries ravaged the Los Angeles Clippers. They overlooked quite a few simple facts:
- The Clippers were 6.2 points per 100 possessions worse when he was on the floor.
- ESPN.com's real plus/minus had him as the league's No. 62 shooting guard, sandwiched directly between Lamar Patterson and Jordan McRae. Among all positions, he was No. 349.
- NBA Math's total points added indicated he was the No. 457 most valuable player in the NBA, bookended by Corey Brewer and Arron Afflalo.
- Even by player efficiency rating, which notoriously rewards volume shooting while ignoring defense, Crawford was a below-average performer (14.0).
But this isn't about Crawford being handed an award erroneously. It's about the future—a future that has LAC paying him an exorbitant salary to depress the second unit's overall efficiency levels while he refuses to play even the tiniest modicum of defense.
Crawford will make $14.5 million during his age-38 season, and there's no telling how little value he could hold by that stage of his career. It's already in head coach Doc Rivers' best interest to reduce his minutes and involvement for the 2016-17 campaign, even though it won't happen as he comes off last year's performance and continues to put up misleadingly gaudy point totals.
5. Omer Asik
7 of 11
Team: New Orleans Pelicans
Age: 30
Remaining Contract: $9.9M in 2016-17, $10.6M in 2017-18, $11.3M in 2018-19, $12M in 2019-20
The New Orleans Pelicans are Anthony Davis' team.
Every move must be made in a manner that complements his skill set. Each player must be capable of performing while on the floor with him. If they can't function together, they're simply not worth paying. Davis is just that important.
Unfortunately for NOLA, Omer Asik struggles when playing the 5 with Davis at the 4. According to nbawowy.com, the Pelicans were outscored by 7.8 points per 100 possessions in those minutes. New Orleans struggled to produce a positive net rating in most every situation during 2015-16. That the team got a minus-2.6 net rating with Davis playing and Asik on the bench is more troubling.
Making matters worse, it's tough to believe the Turkish center will be getting any better. Even if he no longer has to fight through a number of nagging injuries, he's now moved into his 30s and sees the entirety of his value rest on the defensive end. Per NBA Math, that's not good news:
| 2011-12 | 79.29 |
| 2012-13 | 64.13 |
| 2013-14 | 13.59 |
| 2014-15 | 22.64 |
| 2015-16 | Minus-4.75 |
That's not the progression you want to see from your aging center who can't play with your star big man and is already seeing his role decline. If Asik could only muster up 17.3 minutes per game while serving as a starter in 2015-16, how little will he play now that, per NOLA.com's John Reid, he's no longer starting?
Either way, he's averaging nearly $11 million over the next four seasons.
4. Tyson Chandler
8 of 11
Team: Phoenix Suns
Age: 34
Remaining Contract: $12.4M in 2016-17, $13M in 2017-18, $13.6M in 2018-19
Not even the Phoenix Suns' magical training staff could resuscitate Tyson Chandler's ability.
During his age-33 season, his first in the desert, he struggled to overcome his balky back and dwindling athleticism, averaging only 10.5 points and 12.8 rebounds per 36 minutes while shooting 58.3 percent from the field. That final number may still be impressive, but it pales in comparison to the percentages he's posted in previous seasons, especially given his relative lack of volume.
But perhaps most troubling was his inability to protect the rim as well as he has in the past.
NBA.com's SportVU data shows that he allowed opponents to shoot 53.6 percent at the hoop on 5.5 attempts per game. Even during his only (and championship) season with the Dallas Mavericks, those numbers stood at 50.8 and 9.5, respectively.
Now 34 years old, Chandler doesn't inspire confidence that he can turn back the clocks in 2016-17. It's even more unlikely he'll be able to do so at the tail end of this albatross contract.
If he can't protect the hoop and dominate in the pick-and-roll game, it's difficult to justify handing him heavy minutes. And when you're paying someone $39 million over the next three years, you don't want him just sitting on the bench and morphing into little more than a veteran leader.
3. Harrison Barnes
9 of 11
Team: Dallas Mavericks
Age: 24
Remaining Contract: $22.1M in 2016-17, $23.1M in 2017-18, $24.1M in 2018-19, $25.1M in 2019-20 (Player Option)
Q. How do you earn a four-year, $94.4 million deal?
A. Average 9.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists while shooting 35.2 percent from the field and 31.0 percent from downtown during the NBA Finals.
Obviously, we're not really reducing Harrison Barnes to his performance against the Cleveland Cavaliers on the NBA's biggest stage. But that's a significant factor in extrapolating his future growth—the Cavs dared him to beat them, and he failed in spectacular fashion.
Barnes was signed to this mega-contract not because of what he'd done on the court but because the Dallas Mavericks bought into the hype surrounding his game. His pedigree as a high school superstar and collegiate standout still offers hope for a brighter future, as does his athleticism and ability to contribute in so many facets of the game.
But as The Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks explains, Barnes wasn't even Dallas' first choice:
"The Mavs signed him to a four-year, $94 million contract in the offseason, but he wasn’t their Plan A. They opened free agency trying to sign Mike Conley, Nicolas Batum, and Hassan Whiteside in order to form the most bootleg superteam imaginable, only to be left scrambling when all three re-signed with their original teams. Signing Barnes was a concession to the obvious.
If the Mavs could not compete for the top players in the free-agent market, their only hope of acquiring a star was signing someone with the potential to grow into one. Forget becoming the next Durant. The Mavs are just hoping Barnes can be what Chandler Parsons was supposed to be.
"
This contract reeks of desperation since Barnes has shown little more than brief flashes of stardom during his NBA career. Sure, he was limited by playing alongside Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, but it's disconcerting he never showed takeover instincts, still struggles to dribble without looking down and hasn't been able to parlay his athleticism into actual production.
Maybe the gamble does pay off. When you're playing blackjack, hitting on a pair of queens does sometimes work in your favor.
2. Timofey Mozgov
10 of 11
Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Age: 30
Remaining Contract: $16M in 2016-17, $15.3M in 2017-18, $16M in 2018-19, $16.7M in 2019-20
As Ben Golliver explained for Sports Illustrated while giving the Los Angeles Lakers a D-plus for their summer signing of Timofey Mozgov, this is troubling even when you look beyond the enormous expenditures:
"The initial reaction from many observers will be that the Lakers went too far here in both dollars and years. That’s true, but the bigger concern is Mozgov’s fit with L.A.’s young core. The slow, physical Mozgov found his greatest success in Cleveland when the tempo slowed way down during the 2015 playoffs. In a half-court game, Mozgov was free to play off of LeBron James as a cutter and to use his size to finish in pick-and-roll scenarios.
When Cleveland opted for a smaller, faster style this season, Mozgov’s minutes were the first to go. During the regular season, the Cavaliers played meaningfully better on both offense and defense without Mozgov, and he wound up playing just 25 minutes total in the Finals against the Warriors.
"
Maybe Mozgov is just a late bloomer. Maybe his time with the Cleveland Cavaliers was plagued by psychological issues that won't destroy his career now that he's moving to...Hollywood. Maybe it's easier to justify the money because the Lakers have so many players operating on rookie-scale deals and had cash to burn. Maybe they had to overpay to convince anyone to throw on a purple-and-gold uniform.
But it's hard to find a reality in which paying an aging center with confidence issues this much money is an unquestionably good idea. It's far easier to assume the Lakers will find a younger center who pushes Mozgov to the bench for good.
1. Joakim Noah
11 of 11
Team: New York Knicks
Age: 31
Remaining Contract: $17MM in 2016-17, $17.8MM in 2017-18, $18.5MM in 2018-19, $19.3MM in 2019-20
Fast forward to the 2019-20 season, when the New York Knicks are preparing to pay $19.3 million to Joakim Noah: The big man will be 34 years old with plenty of wear and tear on his tires, and it's tough to see him making even a tiny impact for the team that made the ill-advised decision to offer such a large deal three years prior.
Even back here in the present, injuries have plagued the aging center each of the last two years, and he hasn't been nearly as effective while on the floor. His mobility on defense is trending in the wrong direction, his shot has abandoned him and it's been tough to play him enough to get into a facilitating rhythm.
It's hard to see him getting back to an All-Star level in 2016-17, much less continuing to play as such into the future. Worse still, his presence in Madison Square Garden actively hinders the growth of Kristaps Porzingis, who needs to be spending even more time at the 5.
Noah could return to form and become an impact defender who serves as a distributing hub on the offensive end. But little indicates that it will happen, which makes this move feel as if the Knicks are trying to capture attention with name power while competing for a 2011 title.
And again, if it looks this bad now, it'll be downright distributing in 2019.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com or NBA Math.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
