Buying or Selling Every Top 10 Team as Playoff Contenders
The first college football playoff rankings will be released four weeks from today, at which time we'll start to get a picture of who's in the running to compete for a national championship. But why wait?
We've had five weeks' worth of action to use as a baseline, and from that we can start to tell whether certain teams are realistic contenders. It stands to reason that the teams at the top of the latest Associated Press poll have the best shot of making the playoffs, though that doesn't necessarily mean they're legitimate contenders to win a national title.
Using the AP's Top 10 as a guide, here's our assessment of each team in terms of its title chances.
No. 10 Miami (Florida)
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Selling
The U is back! Well, at least in terms of being among the better teams in the country and one of the best in the ACC instead of an afterthought.
Miami's 4-0 start has been impressive in that the Hurricanes have seamlessly transitioned to head coach Mark Richt's kind of team. The defense has looked very good, holding opponents to 11 points per game and 3.58 yards per play, but when Appalachian State has been your toughest competition, those results need to be taken with a grain of salt.
The offensive balance has been effective, but again consider who Miami has faced. Every team above it in the rankings would probably be averaging no less than the 232.5 rushing yards and 242.3 passing yards it's managed per game.
The meat of the schedule is here now, first with Florida State and then North Carolina and Virginia Tech followed by Notre Dame. If the 'Canes are still unbeaten a month from now, then we can talk.
No. 9 Tennessee
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Selling
For the second season in a row, no lead is safe in a game involving Tennessee. But unlike in 2015, when the Volunteers were incapable of holding on to an advantage, they've turned the tables and are now the team that's making the massive comebacks to grab victory from the clutches of defeat.
That makes for some great drama, but is that really a recipe for long-term success?
Tennessee has faced double-digit deficits in three of its five games so far. It needed overtime to beat Appalachian State, 38 unanswered points to vanquish nemesis Florida and a Hail Mary to shock Georgia. Head coach Butch Jones crumpled to the ground after that last win, as if wondering if his heart could take any more of this...and now the Vols play at Texas A&M and then host Alabama.
Optimists—and most people who wear orange—will say Tennessee is playing like a team of destiny, much like Auburn in 2013 with its many miracle finishes. But realists will point out the danger in always living on the edge and how it eventually got the better of Florida State in 2014.
No. 8 Texas A&M
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Buying
Texas A&M is 5-0 for the third consecutive season, which is both good news and bad news. It's good because that means the Aggies have navigated a varied assortment of early challenges in the form of two ranked opponents (UCLA and Arkansas) as well as a pair of SEC road games (Auburn and South Carolina), but it's bad because we've seen how they've fallen apart down the stretch following impressive starts.
The upcoming schedule is rife with potential pitfalls, starting with Saturday's visit from No. 9 Tennessee and continuing the following week at top-ranked Alabama. Being 5-2 after that is very possible but not as probable as it would have been in 2014 or 2015 because this Aggies team isn't like the others.
The Aggies' commitment to the run game is what separates them from past versions. They're averaging 258.6 yards per game and 6.73 yards per carry, their best rates under head coach Kevin Sumlin, and their 15 rushing touchdowns are two more than they had all of 2015.
"When two of your top runners are averaging nine yards per carry, you’re doing something very right," SB Nation's Ian Boyd wrote.
Add in a veteran quarterback and a defense that keeps getting better, and this A&M team looks built for the long haul as opposed to past versions that ran out of gas by mid-October.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 7 Louisville
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Buying
As the only team in the Top 10 with a loss, Louisville faces an uphill battle just to get into the playoff. But after the way the Cardinals performed at Clemson, there are few people who don't think they wouldn't still be capable of winning it all if given the chance.
"The Cardinals showed on Saturday night they are every bit of the national title threat they’d flashed early in the season," Sports Illustrated's Pete Thamel wrote.
It starts and ends with quarterback Lamar Jackson, who despite a sloppy first half against Clemson reaffirmed his spot at the top of the Heisman list. He was nearly unstoppable in the final 30 minutes much as he'd been in Louisville's first four games, and few other teams are going to be capable of making the sophomore look as bad as Clemson did early on.
Louisville only has one remaining significant challenge, the Nov. 17 trip to Houston that in effect could be a playoff elimination match. Win that one and it would be hard to keep the Cardinals out of the semifinals even with Clemson already representing the ACC. And given a second chance to take on the Tigers, it may be a lot more of how the Cardinals looked in the second half.
No. 6 Houston
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Selling
Before explaining why Houston is not a strong championship contender, we should first point out how impressive the Cougars have been to this point and how fun it's going to be to see them face Louisville in mid-November. It isn't just the season-opening win over Oklahoma that's stood out but also the late eruption to win at Cincinnati and the way quarterback Greg Ward continues to wow with his running ability and improved accuracy.
But therein lies Houston's biggest flaw, that being how it would perform without Ward in the game. It's something that has to be considered because the senior quarterback is already banged up and continues to take scary hits every time he takes off.
Ward has accounted for 59.4 percent of the Cougars' yards despite missing a game because of a shoulder injury. Including sacks, he's carried the ball 63 times while no other Houston player has run more than the 48 times that Duke Catalon (who's also missed two games) has. Ward looks perpetually like he's one or two hits away from getting knocked out and not just for a series or a game.
Houston's defense is exceptional, allowing 1.63 yards per rush and 11.2 points per game, but against the teams it would face in a playoff it would need some contributions on the offensive side to compete. That doesn't seem possible if Ward isn't at close to 100 percent.
No. 5 Washington
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Buying
It's been a long time since Washington and championship could realistically be mentioned in the same sentence, but after watching how easily the Huskies dispatched with previously unbeaten Stanford last Friday, it's time to start giving them more attention.
Washington is 5-0 for the first time since 1992—a year after it was co-national champions with Miami—and this team looks like it's just scratching the surface of its abilities. A weak nonconference schedule made the start of Pac-12 play a bit bumpy, needing overtime to win at Arizona in the Huskies' league opener, but then came the 44-6 beatdown of Stanford in which they completely neutralized running back Christian McCaffrey while hounding the Cardinal's quarterbacks.
The Huskies have a loaded defense that has 19 sacks and allowed only five plays of 30 or more yards, tied for fifth-fewest in the country. And their offense is perpetually on the rise and anchored by sophomores at quarterback (Jake Browning) and running back (Myles Gaskin).
"Washington is now the only team west of Texas that still has a shot at the national title," Bleacher Report's Greg Couch wrote.
No. 4 Michigan
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Selling
This year's playoff semifinals will be in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta and the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona, with the championship game set for Tampa, Florida. None of those places are Michigan Stadium, where Michigan has spent the entire season to this point like shut-ins unwilling to venture outside.
It was one thing for the Wolverines to schedule three home games in nonconference action, but since Big Ten play has started they've remained in Ann Arbor. And of these five games, only the most recent (Saturday against Wisconsin) has served as a legitimate challenge, and Michigan didn't exactly wow anyone with that performance.
Wisconsin held the Wolverines to a season-low in points and yards (349), and if not for Michigan's defense, the result might have been different. It's been the defense that's been most impressive to this point, holding opponents to 12.4 points per game 4.09 yards per play, but outside of Colorado—who scored 28 on the Wolverines—none of their other opponents rank higher than 67th in total offense.
Michigan's schedule will soon get much tougher, with remaining games at Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State. It will be in those contests when we'll see the real mettle of this team and where the ongoing kicking struggles—Michigan is 4-of-8 on field goals, missing three against Wisconsin—may be a major factor.
No. 3 Clemson
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Buying
Assess Clemson three weeks ago and we might be giving a different answer, as the Tigers looked like they were dealing with the same post-playoff lull that Florida State experienced in 2014 and Ohio State went through last season. Quarterback Deshaun Watson looked human, and wins against Auburn and Troy did not look impressive.
Then the calendar flipped to ACC play and Clemson has come alive, first with a dominant win at Georgia Tech—its first there since 2003—and then Saturday's epic victory over Louisville. Now we're seeing a Tigers squad that's looking much more like the one that blazed their way to the title game last season and was very close to winning, and the formula for success is very similar as well.
It's started with a defense that has massively overachieved, one that had to replace most of its best players from a year ago yet which is allowing 16 points per game and has forced 11 turnovers. While Louisville's Lamar Jackson erupted in the second half against them, for 30 minutes they managed to frustrate and fluster the Heisman favorite in a way no one else has.
Clemson's offense, so explosive and diverse in 2015, is coming around after some uneven early performances. Watson has thrown seven interceptions, including three against Louisville, but he still manages to make the clutch throws when needed, and he has no shortage of weapons around him.
No. 2 Ohio State
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Buying
Ohio State's roster might be completely different from the past two seasons, but its approach and demeanor have been forged by what the Buckeyes experienced in 2014 and 2015. In other words, they've learned what works and what doesn't, only keeping the stuff that can help them get back to the playoffs.
J.T. Barrett is the player who bridges all three years together, as he was the hot young quarterback whose performance in 2014 propelled OSU into the postseason, and how he was used (or not used) last season had a direct impact on the Buckeyes coming up short in their title defense. We're seeing vintage 2014 Barrett this fall, albeit with more experience to build off, and that's making everyone else around him great.
OSU's signature performance so far was its 45-24 win at Oklahoma, a game it controlled from the outset. Barrett threw four touchdown passes in that game, part of the 14 he's had this season to become the school's all-time leader. The Buckeyes also had one of their four pick-sixes against Oklahoma, all by players who were either buried on the depth chart or still in high school a year ago.
No. 1 Alabama
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Buying
The defending national champions have won 17 consecutive games, and aside from needing to come back from 21 points down at Ole Miss, it's been smooth sailing. Not perfection, but pretty close to it.
The Crimson Tide have not allowed a touchdown in their past eight quarters, and Ole Miss is the only opponent to have scored more than 10 points against them. The defense that was so dominant a year ago has continued at that level with 17 sacks and five defensive touchdowns. That side of the ball has personally outscored two opponents.
Maybe the scariest thing about Alabama is it's been winning with an offense that is still figuring itself out. True freshmen started at both quarterback (Jalen Hurts) and running back (Joshua Jacobs) on Saturday against Kentucky, with the latter one of five freshmen or sophomores who've done the bulk of the rushing for the Tide.
We'll know much more about Alabama over the next month, since it's about to enter a gauntlet that features three straight ranked opponents (two on the road) and then a trip to LSU.
All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
