College Football Playoff Standings 2016: Week 5 Rankings & Bowl Game Projections
Get your calendar-flipping hand ready, because October begins on Saturday, at which point we'll be exactly one month away from the College Football Playoff Selection Committee's first projected rankings for the playoff semifinals.
November 1 will be here before you know it.
But we can't wait that long.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Neither can you.
So with one month's worth of games in the rearview mirror, the time has come to start projecting the matchups of every bowl game that will take place this December and January.
These will change drastically with each week's heavy dosage of upsets and blowouts, but using a combination of stats, conference standings and the latest Top 25 rankings, this is what the (extremely murky) crystal ball currently shows.
| Peach Bowl | Dec. 31 | No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Houston |
| Fiesta Bowl | Dec. 31 | No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson |
After four weeks, the top three spots in the College Football Playoff have been pretty firmly established. Maybe you prefer Michigan or Wisconsin over Ohio State or Louisville over Clemson, but those conference hierarchies will eventually play themselves out. Either way, it's Alabama at No. 1 with the Big Ten and ACC champions likely waging war in the other semifinal.
As is always the case, though, that fourth spot is the toughest nut to crack.
The Big 12 doesn't have a good candidate yet—Baylor is 4-0, but it hasn't beaten anyone better than Oklahoma State—but it's still a difficult decision between Houston and Stanford. If both teams were to go undefeated, Stanford would have the better resume. As things stand, though, Houston has a much better best win (over Oklahoma) and is more likely to run the table (despite November games versus Louisville and at Memphis).
But there's a good reason the selection committee is waiting another month to publish its first projection of the season. There is just too much up in the air right now and not nearly enough data to pore through to make a firm projection.
| Orange Bowl | Dec. 30 | Louisville vs. Wisconsin |
| Sugar Bowl | Jan. 2 | Baylor vs. Texas A&M |
| Cotton Bowl | Jan. 2 | Florida State vs. TCU |
| Rose Bowl | Jan. 2 | Michigan vs. Stanford |
With USC already all but eliminated from the Rose Bowl, Michigan vs. Stanford would be a mighty fine consolation prize. The Trojans have played in the granddaddy of bowl games a record 33 times, but Michigan (20) and Stanford (15) are second and third on that list.
Never mind the history involving those two teams, though. We just want to see Christian McCaffrey and Jabrill Peppers returning punts and kickoffs on repeat for a few hours.
Elsewhere in this group, Lamar Jackson against Wisconsin's stingy defense would make for one heck of a battle between an unstoppable force and an immovable object, while Florida State vs. TCU might be a good old-fashioned race to 55 points.
| Camellia Bowl | Dec. 17 | Troy vs. Western Michigan |
| New Orleans Bowl | Dec. 17 | Georgia Southern vs. Southern Miss |
| Cure Bowl | Dec. 17 | Army vs. Louisiana-Lafayette |
| Miami Beach Bowl | Dec. 19 | Central Michigan vs. Tulsa |
| Famous Idaho Bowl | Dec. 22 | Akron vs. Nevada |
| Bahamas Bowl | Dec. 23 | Middle Tennessee vs. Ohio |
| Dollar General Bowl | Dec. 23 | Appalachian State vs. Toledo |
| Arizona Bowl | Dec. 30 | Air Force vs. South Alabama |
Casual college football fans will overlook these games in favor of the high-profile battles, but you know better. At least one of these eight games is going to have an insane ending, likely producing the most memorable moment of the first two weeks of the bowl season. Give the Mid-American Conference and the Sun Belt enough chances, and they'll deliver.
The first game on this list might be the one. Western Michigan already has road wins over Northwestern and Illinois, and Troy held its own in Week 2 against Clemson.
| New Mexico Bowl | Dec. 17 | Colorado State vs. Louisiana Tech |
| Las Vegas Bowl | Dec. 17 | Boise State vs. Colorado |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Dec. 20 | Marshall vs. Temple |
| Poinsettia Bowl | Dec. 21 | BYU vs. San Diego State |
| Armed Forces Bowl | Dec. 23 | Navy vs. Texas Tech |
| Hawaii Bowl | Dec. 24 | Old Dominion vs. Utah State |
The Mountain West doesn't get many opportunities to strut its stuff during bowl season, but its two biggest chances to make a statement come in the first few days. In the Las Vegas Bowl, it will pit one of its top teams against a middling Pac-12 team—in this case, Colorado. If Boise State is the MWC representative in that one, it won't be lacking for points.
Its other intriguing game is the Poinsettia Bowl, provided BYU can even turn things around to get there. Taysom Hill and the Cougars are locked into that game if they become bowl-eligible, but after three consecutive losses by a combined margin of seven points, that's in a little bit of jeopardy. BYU still has road games against Michigan State, Boise State and Cincinnati, so it can't afford to let any more winnable games slip away.
| Quick Lane Bowl | Dec. 26 | Arizona vs. Penn State |
| Cactus Bowl | Dec. 27 | Oregon vs. Kansas State |
| Holiday Bowl | Dec. 27 | Utah vs. Michigan State |
| Foster Farms Bowl | Dec. 28 | Arizona State vs. Minnesota |
| Alamo Bowl | Dec. 29 | Washington vs. Oklahoma |
| Sun Bowl | Dec. 30 | UCLA vs. North Carolina |
With Stanford the only Pac-12 team currently projected for a New Year's Six game, this section is dripping with juicy pairings. Perhaps the games against Kansas State and Minnesota don't do anything for you, but those other games against the Big 12 and Big Ten will be two of the best played before New Year's Eve.
Colorado and Stanford are elsewhere in these projections, but one Pac-12 team noticeably absent from the list is California. After Saturday's loss to Arizona State, the Golden Bears—who have allowed 42.5 points per game—are already running out of chances to pick up wins. They might need to win two of their remaining home games against Utah, Washington, Stanford and UCLA to get the job done.
| Independence Bowl | Dec. 26 | Missouri vs. Pittsburgh |
| Texas Bowl | Dec. 28 | Arkansas vs. West Virginia |
| Birmingham Bowl | Dec. 29 | South Carolina vs. Cincinnati |
| Belk Bowl | Dec. 29 | LSU vs. Virginia Tech |
| Music City Bowl | Dec. 30 | Georgia vs. Wake Forest |
| Liberty Bowl | Dec. 30 | Auburn vs. Oklahoma State |
| TaxSlayer Bowl | Dec. 31 | Florida vs. Maryland |
| Citrus Bowl | Dec. 31 | Tennessee vs. Notre Dame |
| Outback Bowl | Jan. 2 | Ole Miss vs. Nebraska |
In addition to its almost surefire allotment of two teams in the New Year's Six, the SEC has a conference tie-in with nine other bowl games—as long as enough teams from the SEC East win six games.
The Citrus Bowl and the Outback Bowl are the big ones, pitting the SEC's two best remaining teams against a pair of top squads from the ACC and Big Ten (or Notre Dame). And though Ole Miss already has two losses, the Rebels have certainly looked the part of a top-tier team in the SEC, stomping Georgia on Saturday after letting big leads over Florida State and Alabama slip away.
| St. Petersburg Bowl | Dec. 26 | Boston College vs. South Florida |
| Military Bowl | Dec. 27 | Memphis vs. North Carolina State |
| Heart of Dallas Bowl | Dec. 27 | Indiana vs. Western Kentucky |
| Russell Athletic Bowl | Dec. 28 | Miami vs. Texas |
| Pinstripe Bowl | Dec. 28 | Georgia Tech vs. Iowa |
Though it doesn't fit into one of our other buckets, the Russell Athletic Bowl should be a gem, as the ACC's best non-New Year's Six team battles the third selection out of the Big 12. For now, Clemson, Florida State and Louisville are each projected for one of the six big games, but will that still ring true after they've finished chopping each other down to size? Regardless of who the ACC sends, you'll want to pencil in some time for that game.
And the day before the Russell Athletic Bowl is the Heart of Dallas Bowl, which is sure to be one of the most discussed potential "upsets" of a Power Five team. Though Conference USA isn't required to send its champion to that game, it most likely will in hopes of beating one of the worst Big Ten teams to qualify for a bowl game.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
