Miami Heat Complete 2016-17 Preview
MIAMI — Before the Miami Heat officially opened their new era, they had to close out the last one.
Minutes before head coach Erik Spoelstra began his 2016 media day press conference, team president Pat Riley gathered with an intimate group of reporters. With speculation swirling around the status of All-Star Chris Bosh following his failed physical for a recovery from blood clot issues, Riley put those questions and that chapter of Heat hoops to rest.
"I think Chris is still open-minded, but we are not working toward his return," Riley said. "We feel that, based on the last exam, that his Heat career is probably over."
With that, Miami completed its transition away from the Big Three—not three, not two, not even one. LeBron James bolted back to Northeast Ohio in 2014. Dwyane Wade took up with his hometown Chicago Bulls this summer after negotiations stalled in South Beach. And now Bosh's health has seemingly taken him out of the equation.
What comes next is anyone's guess. The Heat have 10 new faces on the training camp roster amid the glaring absence of several familiar ones. Their last season without Wade, 2002-03, was fifth-worst in franchise history at 25-57. No one knows what to expect with this group, but mystery doesn't have to be a bad thing.
"We're excited about this challenge," Spoelstra said. "Sometimes the unknown is very inspiring. ... You don't want a life more ordinary. You want to be challenged. You want to be pushed."
Spoelstra will get his wish.
Biggest Offseason Move
Miami's summer external work involved mostly low-risk, low-cost, short-term deals. Dion Waiters, Wayne Ellington, Derrick Williams, James Johnson, Luke Babbitt and Willie Reed all arrived on either one-year or one-plus-option contracts.
When the Heat broke out their checkbooks, they did so to keep their rising prospects in place. Miami matched the four-year, $50 million offer sheet that 24-year-old combo guard Tyler Johnson received from the Brooklyn Nets. The Heat wagered $98 million over the next four seasons on the continued development of surging 27-year-old center Hassan Whiteside, the NBA's reigning blocks leader.
"We are able to bring back a very talented young core of players that we think fit the Miami Heat fabric, the type of players that we like to go to battle with," Spoelstra said. "We added some young, exciting, athletic talent. We've added shooting to this roster. We've added guys we think can develop in our system as defenders."
Yet the talent base is different.
Miami has put multiple players in nine of the past 12 All-Star Games and had at least one representative in all 12. That streak might be in jeopardy—though Whiteside's individual goals include both All-Star and Defensive Player of the Year honors—as the Heat move forward with fewer proven commodities.
But the individual pieces may fit better than they have the past two seasons, with the speed and spacing to support a modern, Goran Dragic-led attack. And for all the risks some might see in a heavily paid, highly featured Whiteside, the 7-footer has not hit his ceiling and is one of only eight players with a player efficiency rating of 25-plus each of the last two seasons.
"It took me 27 years to get here," Whiteside said. "What would be the point of doing all that if I don't reach my final goal? I said it from day one—since I was a 20-year-old rookie—that I wanted to be a Hall of Famer. ... I'm still working toward that."
Rotation Breakdown
If it seems unclear how Spoelstra should allocate minutes, that's because it is. With Bosh out of the equation, the Heat have one player left from their 2013-14 team—36-year-old Udonis Haslem, who averaged a career-low seven minutes per game last season.
"Training camp and preseason will be critical this year," Spoelstra said. "There's going to be a lot of evaluation. There's going to be a lot of observation. There's going to be a lot of testing. I can't say right now definitively how it's going to look."
Not everything is ambiguous. Whiteside and Dragic were starters before the free-agency exodus, and the two now stand as offensive options 1 and 1A. Sophomore Justise Winslow, stolen with the 10th pick in 2015, might lead Miami in minutes, especially if his three-point form clicks.
Things get interesting from there: Two starting spots are up for grabs, but it's not clear which two. Shooting guard is one, but the other is either small or power forward, depending on where Spoelstra deploys Winslow. Even though Miami looks deeper on the wing, Spo could open with Winslow at the 3 to avoid physical punishment against bully 4s—plus defend elite 3s—and keep a revolving door at power forward.
| Goran Dragic | Josh Richardson | Justise Winslow | Josh McRoberts | Hassan Whiteside |
| Tyler Johnson | Dion Waiters | James Johnson | Derrick Williams | Willie Reed |
| Beno Udrih | Wayne Ellington | Luke Babbitt | Udonis Haslem |
Josh Richardson, who shed the brace he's worn since suffering a partially torn MCL, is the right choice at shooting guard once healthy. Dragic's backcourt mate needs a lights-out three ball and strong defense—Richardson checks both boxes more consistently than Waiters. Plus, using Waiters and Johnson together allows the combo guards to split their time on and off the ball.
Since Miami is missing Wade's playmaking and Bosh's stretch shooting, Josh McRoberts gets the first crack at the 4. He's a clever, sometimes painfully selfless passer, and he's hit better than 36 percent from deep in four of the last six seasons. Derrick Williams should be a mismatch off the bench, but he'll need to prove he can play Spo-approved defense (a challenge Waiters shares).
Everyone has an opportunity to crack the rotation, which could be among the league's most fluid. Outside of the centers, this roster is heavy with positional versatility. Spoelstra has myriad options to explore, and it could take most (or all) of this season to find his preferred formula.
Reasons for Confidence
Miami opens this campaign with less skill and a lower talent level than last time around, but the pieces appear to align better.
That's partly due to a shared mindset of being overlooked and underrated. Save for Winslow, there isn't a highly touted prospect on the roster who's maintained that status over his career. (And even Winslow slipped in his draft.)
If Whiteside's improbable basketball tale was going to include him leading a team, it would be a hungry bunch like this.
But there are basketball reasons for believing. The Heat hit their stride last season after embracing a modern, pace-and-space style that best suits Dragic and helps maximize the youngsters' energy and athleticism. Miami jumped from 29th in pace to 18th—and from 24th to sixth in offensive rating—after the All-Star break and saw statistical spikes in its key returning nucleus.
Take those numbers and add in the fact that Miami got younger, faster and more explosive over the summer. Gone is the half-court wizardry of Wade and Bosh; in its place is an up-and-down attack that should better leverage the strengths of this entire roster.
"Josh, Justise, Whiteside...everybody can run," Dragic said. "All the players. I would like us to play faster pace because that's my style. That's why they brought me here. ... Hopefully I can be myself this season. It helps that the roster that we have, those players fit my game."
The Heat recently didn't have the motor to go full throttle, but when they tried to run, they usually ran through their opponents.
Spoelstra wouldn't tie his team to an uptempo style at media day but conceded fans "can probably expect something similar" to Miami's spring sprint.
Reasons for Concern
The on-court costs of this offseason are steep. The Heat scored 8,203 points last year. Without Bosh, Miami has lost the source of more than 56 percent of those points (4,620). The obvious candidates to grab the offensive reins include players with career scoring averages of 12.5 (Dragic) and 11.7 (Whiteside) plus a wing who shot 27.6 percent outside last season (Winslow).
If the Heat can't find reliable go-to options, they'll have to defend like crazy or risk spiraling down the standings. What's really concerning, though, is that might not be the team's biggest worry.
The steady streams of wisdom supplied by Wade, Bosh, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson have dried up. Miami must find a voice to follow, particularly given the potential of individual priorities diverting amid a sea of short-term contracts and uncertain futures. And, no, Haslem can't be the only adult in the room.
"Realistically, my minutes on the court are going to be limited. We have to have a leader on the floor," Haslem said. "It could be Goran, but we don't always understand what Goran is saying. Hassan's going to have to be a voice on the floor."
Maybe Whiteside winds up being one of the game's great generals. Maybe he's completely beyond the fits of immaturity that have plagued his past. Maybe the financial support and stability he secured this summer—this will be the first time he's played more than two seasons with the same team at any level—will bring out his absolute best.
But no one knows that for sure. What's tricky is the Heat will need his leadership whether he's ready to offer it or not.
"It's not about a contract anymore. It's not about numbers anymore," Spoelstra said. "It's about winning. He's starting to embrace that and understand that more and more each day."
Predictions
Miami was a tough team to peg before the Bosh news broke. Now, it's a riddle even the basketball gods can't solve.
Squint your eyes, and you'll see a club capable of contending for one of the Eastern Conference's final playoff spots. The Heat have a slew of Spo-style defenders, far more shooting than last season and a roster full of players with something to prove.
The East could be wide-open in the middle, and an All-Star ascension by Whiteside might help Miami climb the ladder.
But even at high speeds, this offense seems likely to sputter. Most of the Heat's top snipers are specialists, so emphasizing them could create holes in other areas. The Phoenix Suns weren't a playoff team with Dragic in the driver's seat, and this will be Whiteside's first season at the focal point.
If player development sags below expectations, a sub-30 win total isn't out of the question.
More than likely, the Heat fall somewhere in the middle: The youngsters progress, Spo flexes his coaching muscle, and a short-term addition or two make themselves keepers. But the loss of talent is too great for Miami to retain its playoff spot.
- Final Record: 34-48
- Division Standing: Fifth in Southeast
- Playoff Berth: No
- B/R Leaguewide Power Rankings Prediction: 22nd
All quotes obtained firsthand, unless otherwise noted. Statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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