NCAA Football Rankings 2016: Predicting the Top 25 After Week 3
From start to finish, Week 3 of the 2016 college football season loomed as something special. For the first time in history, all of the top three teams in the Associated Press Top 25 were playing ranked teams on the road, which left great potential for chaos and poll upheaval. From noon to midnight Eastern time, the airwaves crackled with great matchups, making multiple televisions and remote control dexterity vital tools.
The day didn’t disappoint, either. It began with an ACC upstart proclaiming its arrival on the national scene, included a stunning upset by one of the best programs in FCS history and saw a rousing comeback by the defending national champions.
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In short, it was a fun, fun day of college gridiron action. How will it affect Sunday’s new AP Top 25 poll? Take a look:
| Rank | Team | Previous | Record | Week 3 Result |
| 1. | Alabama | 1 | 3-0 | Won 48-43 vs. Ole Miss |
| 2. | Louisville | 10 | 3-0 | Won 63-20 vs. Florida State |
| 3. | Ohio State | 3 | 3-0 | Won 45-24 vs. Oklahoma |
| 4. | Michigan | 4 | 3-0 | Won 45-28 vs. Colorado |
| 5. | Clemson | 5 | 3-0 | Won 59-0 vs. South Carolina State |
| 6. | Houston | 6 | 3-0 | Won 40-16 vs. Cincinnati |
| 7. | Stanford | 7 | 2-0 | Won 27-10 vs. Southern California |
| 8. | Washington | 8 | 3-0 | Won 41-3 vs. Portland State |
| 9. | Michigan State | 12 | 2-0 | Won 36-28 vs. Notre Dame |
| 10. | Wisconsin | 9 | 3-0 | Won 23-17 vs. Georgia State |
| 11. | Florida State | 2 | 2-1 | Lost 63-20 vs. Louisville |
| 12. | Tennessee | 15 | 3-0 | Won 28-19 vs. Ohio |
| 13. | Georgia | 16 | 3-0 | Won 28-27 vs. Missouri |
| 14. | Texas A&M | 17 | 3-0 | Won 29-16 vs. Auburn |
| 15. | LSU | 20 | 2-1 | Won 23-20 vs. Mississippi State |
| 16. | Baylor | 21 | 3-0 | Won 38-10 vs. Rice |
| 17. | Florida | 23 | 3-0 | Won 32-0 vs. North Texas |
| 18. | Texas | 11 | 2-1 | Lost 50-43 vs. Cal |
| 19. | Arkansas | 24 | 3-0 | Won 42-3 vs. Texas State |
| 20. | Oklahoma | 14 | 1-2 | Lost 45-24 vs. Ohio State |
| 21. | Miami | 25 | 3-0 | Won 45-10 vs. Appalachian State |
| 22. | Nebraska | NR | 3-0 | Won 35-32 vs. Oregon |
| 23. | TCU | NR | 2-1 | Won 41-20 vs. Iowa State |
| 24. | Utah | NR | 3-0 | Won 34-10 vs. San Jose State |
| 25. | Cal | NR | 2-1 | Won 50-43 vs. Texas |
Moving Up
Louisville
Louisville entered 2016 as an ACC Atlantic dark horse, loaded with talent but still unproven behind national powers Clemson and Florida State. Three games in, it’s fair to say that the secret is out and the Cardinals are for real. They proved it with a 63-20 destruction of Florida State, the most points ever yielded by an FSU team. Bobby Petrino’s bunch put its collective foot on the Seminoles’ throat and never let up, leading 35-10 at halftime and keeping the hammer down in the second half.
Beating Charlotte and Syracuse by a combined 132-42 gave outsiders a reason to be skeptical, but this erased any doubts. FSU is a national power and the nation’s No. 2 team, an established brand. The Cardinals made the Seminoles look positively silly.
Meanwhile, quarterback Lamar Jackson established himself as a legit Heisman Trophy candidate, if not the frontrunner. He completed 13 of 20 passes for 216 yards with a touchdown and an interception and led all rushers with 146 yards and four touchdowns on 17 carries, displaying breathtaking athleticism and skills.
The Cardinals appear to be a legit College Football Playoff contender. We thought that Clemson at Florida State on Oct. 29 would be the ACC’s game of the year. Instead, it appears that will happen in two weeks when Louisville visits Death Valley.
Nebraska
Mike Riley began his second season at Nebraska under fire. In Riley’s debut campaign, the Cornhuskers lost five games by five points or less and finished 6-7, the program’s third losing season since 1961. However, with quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. back for his senior season and a solid core returning, there was reason for optimism.
As it turns out, the faith was well-placed. Following a stirring 35-32 victory over No. 22 Oregon, Nebraska is 3-0 and looks ready to make an impact in the Big Ten West. Armstrong threw for 200 yards with three touchdowns and, crucially, no interceptions, and was also Nebraska’s leading rusher with 95 yards and a touchdown.
As Riley told USA Today’s Paul Myerberg, it was a huge win for his program.
“I was tremendously excited for everyone in this state,” he said. “And I think everyone in this state was in the stadium. It felt like it today.”
Armstrong scored the go-ahead touchdown on a 34-yard run with 2:29 left and the Blackshirt defense did the rest. If Armstrong can keep up his efficient play, Iowa and Wisconsin had best watch out atop the West. As is, Nebraska will crack the Top 25 this week.
Michigan State
Coming off a breakthrough College Football Playoff appearance, Michigan State and Mark Dantonio faced some adjustments for 2016. They returned only nine starters from 2015’s excellent roster, and one of the biggest questions was at quarterback, where fifth-year senior Tyler O’Connor replaced Connor Cook.
While O’Connor led MSU to a win at Ohio State last November with Cook sidelined by a shoulder injury, Saturday’s trip to Notre Dame was a litmus test for his leadership of the Spartan offense. How would he respond in charge in a hostile environment? The answer: Pretty well. MSU held off a fierce comeback for a 36-28 victory over the No. 18 Irish, with O’Connor and a strong run game leading a solid final drive to extinguish the Irish’s hopes.
O’Connor completed 19 of 26 passes for 241 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and backfield tandem LJ Scott and Gerald Holmes combined for 198 yards and three touchdowns. The Spartans should crack the Top 10 again this week just in time for a showdown against Wisconsin.
TCU
TCU began the season in the Top 15 and opened with a 59-41 win over FCS foe South Dakota State, but tumbled after falling in double overtime to Arkansas. However, transfer quarterback Kenny Hill was still impressive in defeat, throwing for 377 yards and accounting for three total touchdowns.
Saturday, the Horned Frogs got well against Iowa State. TCU took a 24-7 halftime lead and coasted to a 41-20 win over first-year coach Matt Campbell and the hapless Cyclones. They also had a balanced offense, rushing for 252 yards and passing for 229. With other movement in the Top 25 and teams like Notre Dame, Ole Miss and Oregon expected to drop out, there’s room for TCU among the nation’s 25 best teams again.
Moving Down
Iowa
We know that North Dakota State has no fear. The Bison have won five consecutive FCS national championships. They entered Saturday’s game at No. 13 Iowa with five consecutive wins over FBS opponents (Kansas, Minnesota, Colorado State, Kansas State and Iowa State). For FBS programs, scheduling them is a no-win situation, as USA Today’s Dan Wolken explains. So why do it?
That’s a question Iowa fans must be asking of athletic director Gary Barta and coach Kirk Ferentz after the Bison came into Kinnick Stadium and stunned the Hawkeyes 23-21 on a final-play 37-yard field goal.
This was no fluke. An Iowa team that finished the 2015 regular season 12-0 and won the Big Ten West was outplayed by the Bison, getting outgained 363-231. North Dakota State outgained Iowa 239-34 on the ground and held the ball for 36:40. The Bison ground out a 15-play, 80-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter, holding the ball for 8:39.
And even after they missed a go-ahead 2-point conversion, getting the ball back and victory felt imminent for Iowa fans. The Bison are a good program, but it’s still an unacceptable loss for the Hawkeyes. They can still win the Big Ten West (did you see Wisconsin struggle with Georgia State?) but any hopes of the College Football Playoff are gone now.
Florida State
On Labor Day night, Florida State dug itself a 28-6 hole against a good Ole Miss team and roared back for a 45-34 victory, putting a 32-0 run on the Rebels. So when FSU fell down early to Louisville Saturday, there probably wasn’t much panic on the Seminoles sidelines. Well, there should’ve been. The Cardinals just kept rolling, putting a 63-20 beating that represented the most points ever allowed by FSU in a single game.
Florida State was without All-America caliber safety Derwin James, who’ll miss multiple weeks following knee surgery. But James’ absence alone can’t explain why FSU was outgained 530-284 or how Lamar Jackson ran through and around its defense so easily.
Meanwhile, freshman quarterback Deondre Francois completed just 7 of 18 passes for 101 yards with a touchdown and an interception and electric tailback Dalvin Cook was held largely in check, with 16 carries for 54 yards and no touchdowns. The Seminoles have some soul-searching ahead and will likely drop out of the Top 10.
Oregon
2016 was supposed to be a season of change for Mark Helfrich and Oregon after losing offensive coordinator Scott Frost, who left to become Central Florida’s head coach, and demoting defensive coordinator Don Pellum in place of former Michigan coach Brady Hoke. Three games in it’s unclear whether that change will be a positive.
Saturday’s 35-32 loss at Nebraska will likely bounce the Ducks from the Top 25. Helfrich’s decision to chase the points and go for 2-point conversions five times (successfully converting just one) will be second-guessed, but Hoke’s defense couldn’t stop Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong, who accounted for 295 yards of total offense and four total touchdowns.
Quarterback Dakota Prukop was just average in his first road start, completing 14 of 23 passes for 146 yards and no touchdowns while adding 97 rushing yards. Losing Royce Freeman, who left early with a leg injury, hurt as well, but a defense currently allowing 29.6 points per game must show some more grit if Oregon hopes to compete in the Pac-12 North.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma entered 2016 hoping to build on last fall’s Big 12 title and College Football Playoff berth. It’s only mid-September, but the Sooners are already looking at readjusting their goals. The No. 14 Sooners are 1-2 following Saturday’s home loss to No 3 Ohio State, and all but out of the playoff chase already.
The Big 12 title remains in play with an inconsistent league field surrounding them (Baylor and West Virginia are the only remaining unbeatens) but as Houston and the young but talented Buckeyes showed, Oklahoma’s defense can’t compete at an elite level, which will make life difficult for Baker Mayfield and a still-potent offense all season. He was picked off twice Saturday night.
Ole Miss
If games were 30 minutes long, Ole Miss and Hugh Freeze would be in excellent position for the College Football Playoff through three weeks. Unfortunately for the Rebels, they’re 60. Therein lies the problem. Against Florida State, Ole Miss took a 28-6 lead late in the first half before giving up a 32-0 run in an eventual 45-34 loss.
Saturday, the Rebels looked highly impressive in building a 24-3 lead over No. 1 Alabama with 2:47 left in the first half. But if Ole Miss fans felt nervous, they had a right to do so. Right on cue, the Tide struck back with a three-play, 50-yard touchdown drive and an 85-yard Eddie Jackson punt return touchdown to cut the lead to 24-17 at halftime.
Alabama put together a 45-6 run that put the game away, although a pair of late Rebel scores made the game look a little closer. And while Chad Kelly threw for 421 yards and three touchdowns, Ole Miss’ poor ground game left him exposed. He was also the Rebels’ leading rusher with just 48 yards.
Freeze has talent in spots, but a spotty pass defense and unbalanced offense will keep the Rebels from matching 2015’s 10-3 record and likely knock them out of the Top 25 for now.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
