SEC Football Q&A: Which Team Is on Biggest Upset Alert for Week 3?
Week 2 didn't exactly provide a ton of intrigue involving the race for each division title in the SEC, but Week 3 is loaded with big-time matchups that could resonate for the rest of the season.
With Georgia traveling to Missouri, Alabama visiting Ole Miss, Texas A&M playing Auburn on the Plains and LSU hosting Mississippi State, rubber will hit the road.
Which SEC team is on upset alert this week? That question and more are answered in this week's edition of SEC Q&A.
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It has to be LSU.
This line is sort of all over the place due to the uncertainty at quarterback with the Tigers, according to OddsShark.com, where it officially opened as "even" at some books, is off the board on others and opened with LSU as a 12.5-point favorite at others.
Needless to say, though, LSU will probably end up being a pretty hefty favorite by game time due to the home-field advantage, the NFL talent on the roster and the presence of running back Leonard Fournette—who sat out last week with an ankle injury.
It should be terrified about squaring off against head coach Dan Mullen's Bulldogs, though.
In what should be Purdue transfer Danny Etling's first start in the purple and gold, he'll be squaring off against a defensive front that found itself last week against South Carolina. Mississippi State defensive end A.J. Jefferson earned SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week honors last week with five tackles, two for loss and one sack.
Fellow lineman Johnathan Calvin added a sack, veteran linebacker Richie Brown had 10 tackles and two for a loss and Peter Sirmon's defense swarmed both Gamecock quarterbacks.
What will Etling do with pressure in his face from an SEC defense that has been known for creating havoc up front throughout Mullen's tenure regardless of coordinator? He went 0-of-6 with a pick in the second half last week against Jacksonville State, and now there's tape out on him.
Until we know the answer to that question, it's a bit reckless to just assume he'll be fine. After all, Etling was behind former starter Brandon Harris on the depth chart heading into the season for a reason.
Auburn (-4) is a slight favorite over Texas A&M, and should certainly be on upset alert as well. But that game could go in a wide variety of directions; the road team has won every meeting since 2012 (Texas A&M this year), and the team ranked lower has won twice since A&M joined the SEC (Auburn this year).
Yes, Ole Miss has topped Alabama in each of the last two seasons. But the Rebels are 10.5-point underdogs for a reason, are beat up and don't have the depth that they need to make it three in a row this year.
"What unranked SEC team has the best chance to make the playoff? https://t.co/ZGra1dSgRO
— chas (@chasp23) September 12, 2016"
Just so everybody's clear, that means Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, LSU, Florida and Arkansas are all excluded from this conversation.
The only option would be Auburn, which had a chance to upset the defending national runner-up with a Hail Mary to the end zone in Week 1 and surpassed the 700-yard mark offensively in Week 2 against Arkansas State—a Sun Belt team that is no pushover.
There's a lot to like about Auburn, and it starts with the defense.
It was clear during the first two games that having a healthy Carl Lawson at defensive end matters a lot. Because of the attention that Lawson demands, the rest of the defense has thrived, including tackle Montravius Adams, end Marlon Davidson, freshman Derrick Brown and linebacker Deshaun Davis.
The Tigers have given up just 362.5 yards per game against two potentially potent offenses, have given up the third-fewest plays of 10 or more yards in the conference (20), according to CFBStats.com, and look like the most complete defense on the Plains in nearly a decade.
What's more, the Tigers establish an identity offense.
Quarterback Sean White started and went the whole way, throwing for 244 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for 60. Two Tiger running backs—Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson—topped the 100-yard mark on the ground, and Auburn's wide receivers looked solid for the first time in a long time.
"We came out and looked like an Auburn offense for the first time," head coach Gus Malzahn said in quotes emailed by Auburn. "When we can run the football, it opens everything else up. We had a lot of different guys carry the football and I think our offensive line got better. If you have an inexperienced offensive group, week one to week two is usually where you see your biggest improvement. Without looking at the film, I can tell that they definitely improved."
Auburn can run the ball and play defense, and suddenly it has a quarterback who makes the offense tick.
I'm going to go with ArDarius Stewart, mostly because of the attention Ole Miss will devote to fellow receiver Calvin Ridley and tight end O.J. Howard.
Very quietly, Stewart has had a strong start to the season with nine catches for a team-high 203 yards and three touchdowns. With Ole Miss a bit shaky in the secondary due to some inexperience and nagging injuries, Stewart could be the man who takes advantage of one-on-one matchups and gets quarterback Jalen Hurts comfortable in what likely will be his first road start.
"If we all do what we are supposed to do better, that is going to take a lot of pressure off whoever is playing quarterback," head coach Nick Saban said, according to RollTide.com. "I think that is the more significant issue for us right now in terms of how we improve on offense."
Stewart is one of those guys who not only has the talent to do that, but will be in situations to do so.
Alabama will establish the run with Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris, and Hurts will connect with Stewart early and often over the top in one-on-one coverages to send him north of 100 yards for the day and be the difference-maker in Alabama's first win over Ole Miss since 2013.
There's no reason why Tennessee shouldn't be able to win the SEC East, even if quarterback Joshua Dobbs doesn't improve as a passer. The Vols were one play away last year: a 63-yard touchdown on 4th-and-14 by Florida in the matchup between the two teams.
The most important thing that happened against Virginia Tech at the Battle at Bristol on Saturday night was the fact that Dobbs, who didn't run much in the opener, had 14 carries for 106 yards and two touchdowns. What's more, there appeared to be more designed runs specifically for Dobbs and more instances in which he made the proper read and kept the ball rather than letting one of his running backs take it.
"It's always part of the plan, but on every run play, there's three or four different options and reads, and I thought Josh did a good job reading and some were pre-called runs as well," head coach Butch Jones said in quotes emailed by Tennessee. "As we all know they're a difficult defense to prepare for with the multiple looks they give and stems that they give you, but I thought for the most part, from what I could see from the sidelines, we did some good things to counteract that."
As long as that multidimensional rushing attack stays in place and Josh Malone—or really anybody at wide receiver—continues to be enough of a deep threat to keep opposing defenses honest, Tennessee's offense will be just fine.
Based on what has gone on elsewhere around the division through two games, it's hard to fully trust any other team in the division at the moment.
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of CFBStats unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports. Odds provided by Odds Shark.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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