Texas A&M vs. Auburn: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
After a pair of warm-up games, including one each against ranked opponents, Texas A&M and Auburn now get down to the nitty-gritty: conference play. The SEC opener will go a long way toward determining how this season goes for the Aggies and Tigers, who both need a 1-0 start in the conference since it doesn't get any easier after this.
A&M (2-0) is coming off a 67-0 home win over FCS school Prairie View A&M and an overtime victory against UCLA, rising three spots to 17th in the latest Associated Press poll. The Aggies are hoping to start 3-0 for the third consecutive season.
Auburn (1-1) rebounded from a season-opening 19-13 home loss to Clemson by pounding Arkansas State 51-14 on Saturday.
Texas A&M holds a 4-2 edge in the all-time series, which is tied at two wins apiece since the Aggies joined the SEC. The visiting team has won all four conference clashes, including Auburn's 26-10 win at Kyle Field last November.
Viewing Information
Date: Saturday
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Place: Jordan-Hare Stadium; Auburn, Alabama
TV: ESPN
Spread: Auburn -4, per Odds Shark
Texas A&M Keys to Victory
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Establish the run
Texas A&M has averaged 240 yards per game and 6.08 yards per carry with seven rushing touchdowns so far this season—numbers that bode well for having the balanced offense it needs to survive in the SEC. The Aggies are 24-0 under coach Kevin Sumlin when topping the 200-yard mark on the ground, but that's happened only eight times in league play and just once since 2014.
Quarterback Trevor Knight's mobility pairs well with running backs Keith Ford and Trayveon Williams, each of whom has gained more than 100 yards so far. Knight and Ford have three rushing TDs apiece.
Force Auburn to throw
The Aggies have picked off four passes in their first two games; three of those came against UCLA star Josh Rosen. They had 11 interceptions all of last season.
It starts with getting pressure on the quarterback, and not just from Myles Garrett. This approach has worked so far in 2016. Seven different A&M players have recorded a sack, including Garrett, and eight have combined to register 13 quarterback hurries that have led to opposing passers rushing their throws.
Auburn Keys to Victory
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Stay with Sean
Auburn's quarterback rotation in its first game was head-spinning. The Tigers constantly switched between three different passers, often in the same series, and the lack of consistency at the position contributed to the poor offensive showing in the loss to Clemson.
But Sean White was the main man against Arkansas State, getting the start and staying in the game until the result was no longer in doubt. He put up the best numbers of his career, going 17-of-23 for 244 yards with three touchdowns along with 60 rushing yards on 10 carries.
"It’s amazing what can happen when a quarterback is given enough playing time to find his rhythm," CJ Holmes of SEC Country wrote.
Prevent the big play
Despite holding Clemson to its fewest points since November 2014 and then allowing just 326 yards to Arkansas State, Auburn's defense has still shown a vulnerability to big plays. Both of Arkansas State's touchdowns on Saturday came on drives that were set up by long passes. A 68-yarder got the Red Wolves to the Tigers' 1-yard line (they scored on the next play) in the first quarter, and then a 34-yard throw led to a five-yard TD run on the following snap in the third.
Auburn has allowed 10 plays of 20 or more yards and five that have resulted in 30-plus yards so far in 2016. It allowed 50 and 15, respectively, in all of 2015.
Texas A&M Players to Watch
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Trevor Knight
A&M has had some standout quarterbacks since joining the SEC, but since Johnny Manziel left, it's been a stream of promising young passers who look good at first and then fizzle out. And then head elsewhere, as Kenny Hill, Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray have since transferred.
Knight has so far provided stability and maturity, two things the Aggies have sorely been lacking. The graduate transfer from Oklahoma is making the most of his second chance with 583 passing yards and four touchdowns along with three rushing TDs in two games.
Accuracy has been an issue, though, with Knight completing only 54.4 percent of his throws with two interceptions in 79 attempts.
Nick Harvey
A key reserve last year in A&M's secondary, Harvey has moved into a starting spot at cornerback during his junior season and so far has been lights out. And not just on defense, where he's recorded a team-best 15 tackles through two games.
The 5'10”, 185-pound Harvey also returned a punt 73 yards for a touchdown against Prairie View A&M.
Harvey has shown his mettle defending both the pass and run so far. Pro Football Focus noted his 12 percent run-stop rate in the season opener was the second-best in the country during Week 1.
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Auburn Players to Watch
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Kerryon Johnson
After getting only 52 carries as a freshman, and never more than nine in a game, Johnson was thrust into a starting role this season after Auburn dismissed Jovon Robinson during training camp. Through two games, at least, the second-guessing about that dismissal has disappeared thanks to Johnson's play.
The 6'0", 211-pound Johnson has 218 yards and three touchdowns on 41 carries so far, gaining 94 against Clemson and adding 124 against Arkansas State. That includes a 47-yard TD run in which he showed off his wheels and agility by reversing field after starting to the right and finding no room but then racing around the defense to get left and score.
"He's got some unique abilities," Auburn coach Gus Malzahn said, per AL.com's James Crepea. "He made something out of nothing on that one."
Daniel Carlson
A Lou Groza Award finalist from 2015, Carlson has picked up right where he left off with a perfect 5-of-5 on field goals in two games. He's hit from as far as 53 yards and has helped Auburn get at least some points out of three stalled red-zone drives.
Carlson, who has also made all 104 of his extra-point attempts in two-plus seasons, has converted on 46 of 56 field goals in his career. He's also recorded nine touchbacks on 10 kickoffs, and his 65-yard average is tied for third in FBS.
What They're Saying
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In calling Saturday's slate of games in the SEC West "Separation Saturday," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee highlighted why A&M vs. Auburn is such a big game: "If you want ultra-athletic defenses, dynamic offenses and enough coaching intrigue to fill a stadium, this game—which the road team has won every year since Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012—has it."
Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin has been evaluating his team not just on performance but also attitude and demeanor, according to Carter Karels of DallasNews.com:
"We are trying to play to a certain standard and hold each other accountable. That's no different than any team we've had since we have been here. We will see where we go, but this team cares about each other and are hard on each other in a different way. They are being held to a certain standard regardless of who is across the line.
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Expect both a capacity crowd and a color-coordinated one Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium, as Auburn has called for a "stripe out," asking fans to wear either orange or navy depending on their section. The Tigers first did this last Halloween for the Ole Miss game, which they lost 27-19.
Prediction
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It's hard to say which team—and hot-seat coach—needs this game more, since both Auburn's Gus Malzahn and Texas A&M's Kevin Sumlin entered 2016 with a heap of pressure to get back to winning after early success didn't continue. A win here would help their respective causes, while a loss could serve as the start of a tailspin based on their upcoming schedules.
While each team faced easy opponents in Week 2, Auburn showed far more game-over-game improvement from the opening loss to Clemson. The Tigers appear to have settled on a quarterback, and Sean White looks like he can run Malzahn's spread offense.
A&M hasn't lost a September game the past two seasons, but only the 2013 opener at South Carolina was an SEC road game. Auburn gets the first home win in the series.
Prediction: Auburn 26, Texas A&M 23
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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