Each 2016 MLB Playoff Contender's Most Undervalued Impact Player
The divide between MLB contenders and pretenders is smaller than ever, increasing the impact of each contributor on the roster.
As many as 19 teams are in the postseason running with less than a month remaining. Most of them can thank the new wild-card format, as no division outside the American League East hosts an intense neck-and-neck race.
With so many teams ravaged by injuries, clubs are learning the importance of depth. No one star can carry a team to the World Series. Just ask the Los Angeles Angels.
These guys aren't MVP or Cy Young Award candidates, but they have blossomed into indispensable players vital to September and October success. Let's take a look at each team's most unheralded performer over the first five months of 2016.
Fringe American League Contenders
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New York Yankees: Chase Headley
Most New York Yankees fans wanted Chase Headley benched when he left April hitting .150. He didn't collect his first extra-base hit until May 12.
The third baseman is now batting .259/.333/.397 with 13 homers, marks right on par with last year's results. It's not amazing, but near-average offensive production will do from the defensive whiz.
Kansas City Royals: Paulo Orlando
The Kansas City Royals need to leapfrog four teams to defend their World Series crown, but it's incredible to see them alive despite poor starting pitching and injures to three of their top position players (Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon.)
One of a handful of no-names fueling their late surge, Paulo Orlando is batting .302 with a 1.5 WAR. Although it's an empty average with 11 walks and four home runs, the Royals will take it from a 30-year-old sophomore plug-in outfielder.
Seattle Mariners: Kyle Seager
His little brother Corey has emerged as a top National League MVP candidate, but Kyle Seager is a stud in his own right. The always reliable Seattle Mariners third baseman is hitting .292/.373/.523, matching last year's career high of 26 long balls.
Since 2014, he ranks No. 10 among all position players in WAR (14.4). He's a star without the star treatment.
Fringe National League Contenders
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Miami Marlins: Ichiro Suzuki
In his age 42-season, Ichiro Suzuki has registered his highest on-base percentage (.364) since 2009. His 9.0 walk percentage is close to matching a career-best 9.3 set in 2002.
Giancarlo Stanton's injury has prompted the fourth outfielder into regular reps. While Miami would certainly prefer its slugger starting every day, Ichiro has held the fort down while surpassing 3,000 career MLB hits.
Pittsburgh Pirates: David Freese
He has gone cold during the Pittsburgh Pirates' recent free fall, but David Freese is hitting .268/.352/.412 with a 1.8 WAR. The third baseman is their sturdiest hitter behind outfield studs Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte.
Colorado Rockies: Tyler Anderson
A baseball unicorn, Tyler Anderson is a Colorado Rockies pitcher who fares better at home.
In 11 starts at Coors Field, the rookie southpaw has submitted a 3.04 ERA. The 67-72 Rockies are the longest of feasible long shots, but Anderson is part of a promising crop that should factor heavier into the 2017 playoff race.
Baltimore Orioles: Brad Brach
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Zach Britton is the Baltimore Orioles reliever with a 0.65 ERA and Cy Young Award aspirations. Yet don't overlook setup man Brad Brach's late-inning impact.
The 30-year-old wields a 1.70 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 79 strikeouts in 68.2 frames. He's automatic against fellow righties, who are hitting a meager .098/.159/.200.
His emergence is especially vital in a year where usual eighth-inning man Darren O'Day has only made 30 appearances due to injuries. One of the game's most dominant relievers over the past few years hasn't pitched well when fit, authoring a 3.95 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
Brach received warranted recognition with an All-Star bid, but Britton has since hogged the national spotlight by converting all 40 of his save opportunities. The seventh and eighth innings matter just as much as the ninth. Now the Orioles just need starting pitchers who can consistently hand them leads.
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Boston Red Sox: Hanley Ramirez
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How good is the Boston Red Sox lineup? Hanley Ramirez, a .283/.353/.477 hitter, ranks eighth in WAR.
In a group with four All-Star starters, the resurgent Dustin Pedroia and sudden smasher Sandy Leon, Ramirez's offensive resurgence gets lost in the shuffle. A year after recording an 88 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) and minus-1.8 WAR, he is posting a 116 wRC+ and 1.7 WAR.
Although still a limited defender at first base, he's less of an eyesore away from left field, a failed experiment the Red Sox thankfully abandoned. Next year, they can remove him from the diamond entirely as David Ortiz's designated-hitter replacement.
He's not a Silver Slugger like Ortiz, Gold Glover like Jackie Bradley Jr. or MVP candidate a la Mookie Betts, but most teams would love to have an above-average hitter like Ramirez. If the Red Sox can support baseball's best offense with some solid pitching, no American League team should want to face them in October.
Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez
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The Chicago Cubs have an entire infield of four All-Stars, and that doesn't include Javier Baez.
A key cog in baseball's most versatile lineup, the 23-year-old has spent time all across the diamond this year, mostly playing second and third base. Although a luxury for the Cubs, most teams would kill for a newcomer hitting .271/.307/.431 with 13 homers, 12 steals and 2.1 WAR.
He hasn't fulfilled the enormous power expectations, but Baez has outgrown his earlier woes by slashing his strikeout percentage to a manageable 24.2. While some more walks would be nice, he provides plus power with 11 defensive runs saved (DRS) at second when the more patient Ben Zobrist shifts to the outfield.
Because of Baez, the Cubs haven't sweated injuries to Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler. His defensive flexibility allowed Zobrist and Kris Bryant to fill the void in left field.
With Soler back in the mix, manager Joe Maddon faces a great problem of possessing too much talent to play all at once. Yet if anyone goes down, Baez will fill the void.
Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez
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Even those aware of Jose Ramirez's breakout season will look at his numbers in awe, not realizing just how good a year he's having.
A year after batting .219/.291/.340, the Cleveland Indians infielder is hitting .308/.361/.454 with 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He has aptly filled two of their biggest holes, third base and left field, with a 3.6 WAR and 120 wRC+.
Not many guys raise their batting average on balls in play (BABIP) by 100 points, but Ramirez's BABIP has spiked from .232 last year to .333 this season. Going forward, he'll find a middle ground closer to his career .295 BABIP and .271 batting average.
For now, let's enjoy the contact and power uptick. Along with his subdued home run rise, the 23-year-old has collected 36 doubles, placing him in MLB's top 10 behind Anthony Rizzo and Betts.
Every playoff contender needs one or two guys who over-deliver. Despite its fiery pitching staff and lineup led by budding star Francisco Lindor, Cleveland wouldn't be cruising into October without Ramirez.
Detroit Tigers: Matt Boyd
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The top-heavy Detroit Tigers are riding stud hitters (Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez and Victor Martinez) and two aces (Justin Verlander and Michael Fulmer) into the wild-card picture. Those stars have carried them within one game of Baltimore for the second play-in spot.
There are few mid-level contributors holding the fort down, but Matt Boyd has bolstered the back of their starting rotation.
After posting a 7.53 ERA last year, the 25-year-old stumbled in his first cracks at redemption, relinquishing 21 runs over five starts. Since two shellackings in June, he has crafted a 2.40 ERA over 10 starts and one relief outing.
Even with Jordan Zimmermann and Mike Pelfrey returning from the disabled list, Boyd should maintain a firm grip on his starting spot. While he has settled into a solid No. 4 starter, Pelfrey (4.76 ERA) and Anibal Sanchez (5.69 ERA) have hemorrhaged too many runs to trust in significant September games.
Houston Astros: Chris Devenski
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The unsung hero of the Houston Astros bullpen, Chris Devenski is employed unlike most other modern relievers.
In 36 relief appearances, the 25-year-old rookie has logged a 1.49 ERA. Before crying small sample size, the Astros have stretched him out longer than any other bullpen arm. He has hurled 72.1 innings in those appearances, frequently pitching three or more frames at a time.
"Devenski is really good at his job," manager A.J. Hinch told the Houston Chronicle's Jake Kaplan. "He's been able to respond to any challenge we've given him, whether that's been a spot start, whether that's been troubleshooting back-to-back days, whether it's multiple innings out of the pen."
The long reliever is usually used as a worst-case scenario, not a common plan of attack. And the mop-up man typically isn't as good as Devenski, but the Astros can afford to utilize him this way with Luke Gregerson, Will Harris and Ken Giles handling the late innings.
For all the successful innings he has compiled, he's arguably the most vital member of a bullpen leading the majors in fielding independent pitching (FIP).
Los Angeles Dodgers: Yasmani Grandal
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Yasmani Grandal is the living embodiment of batting average not meaning everything.
The Los Angeles Dodgers catcher is hitting .231, not far below his career .238 rate. Yet he also sports a .344 on-base percentage fueled by a 14.5 walk percentage and a .488 slugging percentage sparked by 24 home runs.
Per StatCorner, he has also earned pitchers the second-most extra strike calls behind Buster Posey. Put it all together, and he rates sixth in WAR among his position's peers.
Grandal is also hitting the snot out of the ball after a putrid start. Since July 1, he's batting .286 (46-for-161) with 17 homers. He's a huge reason why the Dodgers have maintained a first-place lead in the NL West despite sending 27 players to the disabled list this season.
New York Mets: Bartolo Colon
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Last year, the New York Mets looked likely to make Citi Field less jolly by parting ways with Bartolo Colon. With a whole rotation of fire-breathing studs in line, a rotund strike-thrower set to turn 43 during the 2016 campaign didn't fit perfectly into their plans.
However, they wisely realized that there's no such thing as rostering too many pitchers.
Matt Harvey is out for the season, and Zack Wheeler was shut down before ever returning from Tommy John surgery. Currently sidelined, Steven Matz may not pitch again this year, either. Jacob deGrom may also miss time after he allowed 31 hits and 16 runs over his last three starts. Noah Syndergaard is pitching through a bone spur.
Amid all this uncertainty, Colon is a constant. The veteran has notched a 3.22 ERA over 164.2 innings. His 29 walks place him in danger of yielding the most free passes since 2011, but he still holds the fourth-lowest percentage (4.3) of all qualified starters.
Entering the year with baseball's most dominant rotation, the Mets are staying alive in the wild-card hunt with Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman and Rafael Montero making key starts. Through all this turmoil, they can always count on Colon.
San Francisco Giants: Brandon Crawford
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Any San Francisco Giants hitter beyond Posey can qualify as undervalued.
None of them beyond their star catcher are marquee names, but they contribute offensively and flourish defensively. They're personified by shortstop Brandon Crawford, one of baseball's top performers despite his .271 average and dozen homers.
Home runs aren't everything. Crawford wields a .773 OPS with 27 doubles and nine triples, which is tied with Cesar Hernandez and Chris Owings for an MLB high. More importantly, he's on the verge of winning his second straight Gold Glove with a 17.2 ultimate zone rating (UZR) leading all infielders.
WAR skeptics will scoff at the 29-year-old deriving more value than Nolan Arenado, Miguel Cabrera and Xander Bogaerts. Even if he's not better than those guys, he's still really darn good.
His defensive wizardry didn't earn him an All-Star nod this summer, but it should garner him attention as one of the game's most unheralded stars.
St. Louis Cardinals: Jedd Gyorko
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Jhonny Peralta started the season sidelined and hasn't looked sharp since his return. Kolten Wong has also struggled mightily at the plate, and Aledmys Diaz's rookie breakout is on hold due to a fractured thumb.
Acquired to platoon against lefties, Jedd Gyorko has instead become the St. Louis Cardinals' most important infielder after Matt Carpenter.
The 27-year-old has belted a team-high and career-best 26 home runs. If not for Brian Dozier's Herculean power surge, Gyorko's 19 second-half home runs would top everyone.
A year after garnering a .654 OPS against righties, he's torching them with 21 dingers and an .875 OPS.
Despite all of their offensive injuries, the Cardinals lead the National League in home runs behind the boisterous duo of Gyorko and Brandon Moss. Their season hasn't gone according to plan, but those two pleasant power surprises have them tied with the Mets for the second wild-card spot.
Texas Rangers: Matt Bush
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Despite their 30-9 record in one-run games, the Texas Rangers have endured one of baseball's worst bullpens. One of their top relievers is a 30-year-old rookie who spent almost three years in prison.
Matt Bush, a No. 1 overall draft pick 12 years ago, was jailed for a drunken-driving accident. He never made it past Double-A with the Tampa Bay Rays, but the Rangers gave him a second chance anyway.
Improbably enough, he has flourished with a 3.04 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 49 strikeouts over 50.1 innings. The righty is now a key high-leverage reliever ahead of closer Sam Dyson, who supplanted the wildly ineffective Shawn Tolleson in May.
This time last year, Bush was behind bars. Now he plays a vital role for a team running away with the AL West title. He's going to pitch in huge October spots.
Toronto Blue Jays: Marco Estrada
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After David Price switched AL East allegiances to the Red Sox, the Toronto Blue Jays faced a long season of rotation woes their powerful lineup would have to offset.
Instead, their offense has fallen short of expectations while the starting staff sports the AL's best ERA (3.81)
A huge component of their success, veteran Marco Estrada is once again defying his peripheral stats. Last year, he posted a 3.13 ERA and 4.40 FIP, the widest discrepancy between actual run prevention and that disconnected from defense. He looked like a textbook regression candidate heading into 2016.
The gap has narrowed, but he still holds a 3.56 ERA superior to his 4.27 FIP. The 33-year-old has also upped his strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate from 6.51 to 8.27 while making batted balls easy for his defense to corral. His 17.3 infield-fly rate leads all qualified starters.
Estrada has tailed off, surrendering 17 runs over his past four starts, but his All-Star first half kept the Blue Jays afloat in a tight division battle. They'll have a tough time fending off the Red Sox, Orioles and Yankees if his season keeps going south.
Washington Nationals: Danny Espinosa
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For most of the season, Danny Espinosa was known as the guy playing instead of Trea Turner.
When he left May batting .199/.297/.325, it made little sense for the 29-year-old to keep starting over the hyped prospect. Now that Turner is hitting .347/.368/.540 with 21 stolen bases in 50 games, waiting so long to unleash him looks even more foolish than before.
Sticking with Espinosa, however, proved a prudent choice for the Washington Nationals. He now wields a .710 OPS, 21 homers and 2.2 WAR on account of plus defense at shortstop.
Despite hitting .220 with a 27.6 strikeout percentage, he's still an above-average contributor. Ben Revere, who has recorded a .562 OPS, has instead taken a back seat to Turner. It took a long time for the Nationals to find the optimal layout, but they're now rolling into the playoffs with a loaded lineup.
Note: All advanced stats, updated as of Wednesday night, are courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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