Top Storylines Heading into 2016 College Football Season
Cal and Hawaii kicked off the 2016 college football season last Friday, and the first major weekend of the campaign is almost here. Finally, fans and analysts alike can watch their predictions unfold on the field.
The main storylines include seeing if the vast amount of offseason attention for several schools was warranted and whether or not the favorites can back up their billing.
Additionally, Group of Five programs will fight for national respect. But can last year's darling reach the College Football Playoff? Or will the non-power conferences settle for a major bowl game?
Strap in, football fans. 2016 will be a wild ride.
Terrific Week 1 Slate
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Tennessee vs. Appalachian State highlights Thursday's action, and then Friday offers three Top 25 games. The weekday matchups aren't great, but Saturday is glorious.
Georgia Tech and Boston College kick off the festivities at 7:30 a.m. ET in Dublin, Ireland. Meeting at neutral sites are Oklahoma vs. Houston (noon, NRG Stadium) LSU vs. Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., Lambeau Field) and Georgia vs. North Carolina (5:30 p.m., Georgia Dome).
During the nightcap, USC and No. 1 Alabama square off at AT&T Stadium, while Auburn hosts second-ranked Clemson.
Notre Dame heads to Texas Sunday night, before Florida State and Ole Miss clash on Labor Day night in Orlando, Florida.
In total, there are four meetings between Top 25 teams. Six other ranked squads (Stanford, Washington, UCLA, LSU, Clemson and Notre Dame) take on power-conference opponents.
Cupcakes can wait. Competition comes first for many.
Whatchya Got, Offseason Winners?
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No. 7 Michigan is a popular College Football Playoff choice, and ninth-ranked Tennessee is a clear favorite to win the SEC East. Some aren't so quick to believe in either program, though.
Jim Harbaugh took the Wolverines to a 10-3 record during his debut season, and they return a majority of production on both sides of the ball. But can Michigan survive a brutal late-season road slate against Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State?
"Don't believe the hype," a Big Ten coach told ESPN Insider Adam Rittenberg.
Meanwhile, the Vols have consistently improved under head coach Butch Jones. They've gone from five to seven to nine wins since he took over in 2013. However, will Tennessee avoid fourth-quarter letdowns? Is the passing game strong enough to win the conference?
Both programs were obvious offseason winners. Will Michigan and the Vols turn that to in-season success?
Potential Breakout Teams
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According to Odds Shark, these 10 teams are the likeliest champions in 2016: Alabama, LSU, Clemson, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Stanford. Other possibilities include Georgia, Ole Miss, TCU and Michigan State.
Which schools, if any, will crash the playoff party?
Louisville and Washington are the favorite potential breakout programs, while Houston, Iowa, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Oregon and USC have an opportunity to impact the conversation.
But there's an important distinction between contender and spoiler. Do any of those eight teams fit into the former category rather than the latter? Hype says yes, but reality may have a different plan.
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Houston's Playoff Pursuit
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Houston earned a spot in college football's heart last season. Led by a first-year head coach and a dynamic quarterback, the Cougars beat four ranked teams, won the AAC title and capped a 13-1 campaign with a Peach Bowl victory over ACC power Florida State.
It's time for coach Tom Herman and QB Greg Ward Jr. to lead the encore, which begins at No. 15 in the polls and against No. 3 Oklahoma.
Let's play a hypothetical game: Say Houston knocks off the Sooners, finishes undefeated and wins the conference, while the Sooners claim the Big 12 again. That's not unrealistic. How would Herman's team not make the CFP?
The Cougars likely need to win all 13 games, but they hold a high initial ranking, meet Oklahoma and could record another quality nonconference victory over Louisville.
Likely? Maybe not. Possible? Without question.
Houston's Group of Five Challengers
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If Houston loses a single game, other Group of Five teams could leapfrog Herman's squad in the rankings. Two teams appear best suited to compete for the coveted major bowl bid.
Boise State returns quarterback Brett Rypien, running back Jeremy McNichols and wide receiver Thomas Sperbeck, one of the best skill-position trios in the country. Defending Mountain West champion San Diego State could be waiting for the Broncos in the conference title game.
Either South Florida or Temple will likely await Houston in the AAC championship. Appalachian State takes on Tennessee and Miami, so the Mountaineers could put together an excellent resume. Maybe Western Michigan can surprise in the MAC.
Thanks to 2014 Boise State and 2015 Houston, the Group of Five is 2-0 during its New Year's Six bowl game appearances. Will the trend continue this season?
Pac-12 Playoff Hopes
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In 2015, the Pac-12 was the major conference shut out of the playoff. Unfortunately for the conference, it might get spurned again.
"A two-loss team has yet to make it into the CFP," Yahoo's Sam Cooper wrote. "The Pac-12 could fall victim to its own depth."
Although Stanford is the favorite, David Shaw's club faces an early-season gauntlet with a new quarterback. USC's schedule is unforgiving in September and especially November.
Oregon's defense may struggle, and UCLA is a high-upside, low-floor team. Though Washington and Washington State are appealing underdogs, both are unproven as top-tier programs.
The Pac-12 is full of solid squads. But without an elite team, the conference's parity might be its own worst enemy.
Ohio State's Reloading Project
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Ohio State has averaged the fourth-best recruiting ranking since Urban Meyer arrived, so talent isn't an issue. Experience is another story after the Buckeyes lost 12 NFL draft picks, but they kept a few key pieces for 2016.
J.T. Barrett returns behind center—rather behind Pat Elflein, a 29-game starter and All-American on the offensive line. Raekwon McMillan is back in the heart of the defense.
The Buckeyes might stumble early to Oklahoma, but Alabama and Ohio both proved a team can overcome September losses. Then again, Meyer's squad could steal a significant road victory and just keep winning.
And considering the final seven games are at Wisconsin, at Penn State, Northwestern, Nebraska, at Maryland, at Michigan State and Michigan, the young Buckeyes would have earned their place in the College Football Playoff if they get that far.
Alabama's Encore Performance
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Despite the questions at quarterback and the loss of former defensive coordinator Kirby Smart, we're not going to start doubting Nick Saban now. Alabama hasn't dropped more than one regular-season game since 2010, and the program has claimed three national titles in five years.
The Crimson Tide open the campaign ranked atop the nation. Even with a loss to USC or Ole Miss in September, they're probably not falling outside of the Top 10.
Alabama's four-game stretch from Oct. 8 to Nov. 5 will likely determine its season. Saban and Co. travel to Arkansas and Tennessee, host Texas A&M and head to LSU. The Tide also close the season against rival Auburn in Tuscaloosa.
Eventually, the dynasty will end. However, there's no reason to suggest a significant drop-off is coming this year.
The Year of the Running Back
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The 2016 campaign offers a loaded class at running back. Be sure to enjoy Dalvin Cook (Florida State), Nick Chubb (Georgia), Leonard Fournette (LSU), Royce Freeman (Oregon) and Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) before they head to the NFL.
There are dozens of other high-quality backs as well.
Samaje Perine (Oklahoma), Wayne Gallman (Clemson), Elijah Hood (North Carolina) and Jalen Hurd (Tennessee) highlight the other top draft-eligible prospects. Saquon Barkley (Penn State), Ronald Jones II (USC) and Myles Gaskin (Washington) are the best true sophomores.
At Group of Five programs, McNichols, Donnel Pumphrey (San Diego State), Matt Breida (Georgia Southern), Larry Rose III (New Mexico State) and Brian Hill (Wyoming) lead the position.
Without a doubt, 2016 is the year of the running back.
Deshaun Watson's Last Ride
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ESPN.com's David M. Hale noted head coach Dabo Swinney urged Clemson fans to show up for the spring game because it was most likely going to be the final scrimmage for quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Credit Swinney for not pretending the inevitable doesn't exist, since Watson is probably declaring for the 2017 NFL draft after this season. But his final college campaign could be legendary.
The Tigers amassed 514.5 yards and 38.5 points per game last year. Every major skill-position player returns except for Charone Peake, but Mike Williams—a 1,000-yard receiver two seasons ago—is healthy after a neck injury sidelined him in 2015.
Per Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee, Watson has a lofty yet clear goal in 2016: to lead the best offense ever.
Watson could end his Clemson career in style, posting massive numbers and hoisting the national championship trophy. But he'll need to defeat Florida State and a few other major teams to achieve the ultimate prize.
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from CFBStats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
