Rating Each Top 25 College Football Team as Contender or Pretender
It’s here. It’s finally here. Following months of talk, speculation and anticipation, the 2016 college football season has officially kicked off. Cal traveled halfway across the globe for a 51-31 defeat of Hawaii in Australia, and the season will begin in earnest Thursday and continue all weekend long through Labor Day with an excellent slate of opening-week games.
Soon, the time for talk will be over, replaced by actual football action and results. As the season unfolds, conference races and the push for the third College Football Playoff will take shape, and we’ll find out how right (or wrong) we were about preseason predictions.
Some teams will emerge as contenders, while others will be exposed as pretenders. Here’s one last preseason look at which programs are contenders and which ones will end up being pretenders, using the preseason Associated Press Top 25. Stats were taken from teams' official websites.
Agree? Disagree? Let us know in the comments.
25. Florida
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Jim McElwain had a debut season to remember at Florida. The Gators went 10-4 and won the SEC East, waking up a program left moribund by Will Muschamp’s disappointing tenure. However, the finish left a little bit (OK, a lot) to be desired. Florida finished 0-3 and was outscored 97-24, including a 41-7 Florida Citrus Bowl whipping at the hands of Michigan. Ouch.
That slide directly coincided with quarterback Will Grier’s midseason NCAA suspension for a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs. The offense sputtered with Treon Harris at the helm; both Grier and Harris have since transferred. Florida turned to the well-traveled Luke Del Rio, who began his career at Alabama before transferring to Oregon State, as its new quarterback.
Del Rio is one of 11 starters returning, and the Gators are also replacing their leading rusher following Kelvin Taylor’s early departure for the NFL and a pair of defensive All-Americans in cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III and defensive tackle Jon Bullard. The secondary shouldn’t see much slippage with All-SEC corner Jalen Tabor returning.
However, with the offensive uncertainty and Georgia and Tennessee certain to be improved, it’s hard to call the Gators a serious SEC East contender in McElwain’s second season.
24. Oregon
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Following a 24-4 record, national runner-up finish and a Heisman Trophy win by Marcus Mariota in Mark Helfrich’s first two seasons, Oregon took a step back in 2015. The Ducks had a streaky season and finished 9-4, capping the year with a 47-41 Alamo Bowl loss to TCU that saw them blow a 31-0 lead. Oregon no longer looks like the team to beat in the Pac-12 North; that title goes to Stanford, which has won three of the last four league titles.
Helfrich will deal with some change in 2016, including a pair of new coordinators after Scott Frost left to become Central Florida’s head coach and Don Pellum was demoted in favor of former Michigan coach Brady Hoke after his defense allowed 37.5 points per game (No. 116 nationally). Oregon also returns only eight starters, although one of them is standout tailback Royce Freeman, who rushed for 1,836 yards and 17 scores as a sophomore.
Montana State graduate transfer Dakota Prukop hopes to duplicate the success that fellow FCS grad transfer Vernon Adams had in his only season as Oregon’s quarterback. But he’ll have to score plenty of points to account for a defense that returns only four starters from 2015’s porous group. Three are in the secondary, which allowed 306.5 passing yards per game, third-worst in the FBS.
There are too many questions about this group overall to take the Ducks seriously in the Pac-12 North.
23. Baylor
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No team in America is probably more excited to kick off the 2016 season than Baylor. The Bears had a nightmarish offseason. Art Briles, who took Baylor from irrelevance to national power status, was fired, chancellor and president Kenneth Starr left Baylor after the school stripped him of his power, and athletic director Ian McCaw resigned after an independent investigator concluded Briles and his staff had obstructed and misled investigations into allegations of sexual assault and dating violence against his players.
The team brought in former Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe as acting head coach, who immediately had to deal with the fallout, as 12 recruits were released from their national letters of intent. In addition, talented backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham transferred.
2016 was already going to be a season of transition. The Bears return just nine starters, including only one starting offensive lineman and no starting defensive linemen. Seth Russell, healthy following season-ending neck surgery, threw 29 touchdowns against six interceptions, and he has a dangerous target in KD Cannon (868 yards and six touchdowns in 2015). Shock Linwood and Johnny Jefferson form one of the nation’s best backfield duos, although Jefferson is out "a while," per Grobe, due to a car accident, according to Adam Grosbard of the Dallas Morning News.
However, the questions about the talent in the trenches and the overall mood surrounding the program likely will add up to a down season in Waco this fall. Don’t expect the Bears to seriously contend for the Big 12 title.
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22. North Carolina
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Larry Fedora and North Carolina had an excellent season in 2015. The Tar Heels put together an 11-game win streak, won the ACC Coastal Division and pushed Clemson hard before falling 45-37 in the ACC title game. Thirteen starters return from that group, although prolific dual-threat quarterback Marquise Williams is not among them.
Backup Mitch Trubisky should fit nicely into an offense that is led by tailback Elijah Hood (1,463 yards, 17 touchdowns in 2015) and receivers Ryan Switzer, Mack Hollins and Bug Howard. There are concerns about a defense that must replace all three starting linebackers, but an offense that led the ACC in scoring offense last year (40.7 points per game) should remain potent.
The Georgia Dome opener against Georgia won’t be easy, and UNC must travel to Florida State and Miami. But the Heels avoid Clemson from the ACC Atlantic and get Virginia Tech, Pitt and Georgia Tech at home. The Coastal is fluid, but this team should, at the very least, contend for another division title.
21. Oklahoma State
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This fall, Oklahoma State won’t sneak up on anyone. Mike Gundy’s team played like men in 2015, starting the season 10-0. The Cowboys were in contention for the Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff berth until mid-November, and while a three-game losing streak to end the season punctuated with a Sugar Bowl rout at Ole Miss’ hands was disappointing, there are plenty of reasons for optimism in 2016.
Oklahoma State returns 16 starters, led by emerging star quarterback Mason Rudolph, who threw for 3,770 yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a sophomore. Receiver James Washington (53 catches, 1,087 yards, 10 touchdowns) highlights a strong receiver corps, and Stanford transfer Barry Sanders Jr., son of OSU and NFL legend Barry Sanders, should bolster a rushing attack that averaged just 126.8 yards per game last fall (No. 114 nationally).
The NFL draft departure of sack-happy defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah hurts, but the Cowboys do return seven defensive starters, led by linebacker Jordan Burton and safety Jordan Sterns. The end of the season will again make or break the 2016 campaign for OSU, with road trips to TCU and Oklahoma to finish the year. But this group should again make a serious charge for the Big 12 title.
20. Southern California
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Southern California looked far and wide following Steve Sarkisian’s dismissal as head coach last fall. The Trojans are one of the nation’s most powerful, tradition-rich programs and would likely have had their pick of qualified coaching candidates. But USC officials decided they liked the guy who was right there in front of them.
After Clay Helton led the Trojans to the Pac-12 South title, the Trojans stripped his interim head coach title in favor of the full-time role. He inherits a very good roster that is shaking off the lingering effects of NCAA probation handed down following Pete Carroll’s reign. Helton returns 14 starters, nine on offense.
New starting quarterback Max Browne has one of the nation’s top receivers in JuJu Smith-Schuster, who caught 89 passes for 1,454 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. All five offensive line starters return, as does the backfield duo of Justin Davis and Ronald Jones II.
There are experience concerns for a defensive line that returns no starters in a new 5-2 scheme installed by new defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast, but cornerback Adoree’ Jackson is one of the nation’s most talented, versatile players who’ll contribute as a receiver and on kick returns.
The Trojans must travel to Stanford, Washington and UCLA and get Oregon and Notre Dame at home. But this is a group that is certainly talented enough to contend for another division title—and perhaps much more.
19. Louisville
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Bobby Petrino’s second stint at Louisville is going rather well. The Cardinals have a pair of eight-win seasons punctuated by bowl wins in his two seasons back at the program’s helm, and 2016 should be even better.
Louisville returns 16 starters (eight on offense and eight on defense), led by an emerging star in sophomore quarterback Lamar Jackson, who threw for 1,840 yards, 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions and also led the team in rushing with 960 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. He is a game-breaking dual-threat passer who can make things happen with his legs and his arm.
A year ago, the Cardinals had the nation’s No. 18 defense, allowing 332.8 yards per game. The core is back, led by senior hybrid linebacker Devonte Fields as well as senior safety Josh Harvey-Clemons and junior cornerback Shaq Wiggins.
The presence of national powers Clemson and Florida State in the ACC Atlantic is a concern, and Louisville will have its opportunity to make a mark it faces the Tigers and Seminoles within a three-week span early in the season. But if Jackson makes improvement as a sophomore, this team could be an ACC sleeper.
18. Georgia
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Kirby Smart didn’t exactly inherit a fixer-upper from Mark Richt, who won 147 games in 15 seasons but parted ways with Georgia after missing the SEC title game for three consecutive seasons.
The Bulldogs return 13 starters but could be starting a freshman at quarterback against North Carolina. Jacob Eason is the nation’s top quarterback recruit, per 247Sports, and is battling senior Greyson Lambert and junior Brice Ramsey for the starting role. Eason is clearly talented but could have a learning curve with the first two SEC games on the road (at Missouri and Ole Miss).
Seth Emerson of DawgNation claimed signs point to Eason as the starter.
Powerful tailback Nick Chubb is expected to play in the opener after recovering from major knee surgery that ended his 2014 season after six games; he rushed for 1,547 yards and 14 touchdowns as a freshman. Returning 1,000-yard rusher Sony Michel will provide punch when he returns from a broken arm suffered in an ATV accident, and receiver Terry Godwin is an emerging star.
Defensively, the Bulldogs have one of the SEC’s best secondaries anchored by safety Dominick Sanders, and former top overall recruit Trent Thompson will be leaned upon more at defensive tackle. The Bulldogs host Tennessee, Auburn and Georgia Tech, with Ole Miss being their toughest road test.
This is definitely a group that could start and finish the season at the Georgia Dome, returning for the SEC title game.
17. Iowa
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Last fall, Iowa was one of the nation’s biggest surprises. Following an uneven 7-6 season, everything came together for Kirk Ferentz’s bunch, which finished the regular season 12-0 and won the Big Ten West title, coming seconds and inches short of a College Football Playoff appearance following a 16-13 Big Ten title-game defeat to Michigan State.
The Hawkeyes won’t sneak up on anyone this time around. They return a solid core of 13 starters, including starting quarterback C.J. Beathard who, fully healthy, should be one of the Big Ten’s best quarterbacks. Three offensive line starters return, as do tailbacks LeShun Daniels and Akrum Wadley, key building blocks for a grinding run game.
Defensively, Iowa will miss defensive end Drew Ott, who had his appeal for an injury-waiver fifth season denied by the NCAA. But senior cornerback Desmond King is the returning winner of the Jim Thorpe Award, given to the nation’s top defensive back, and middle linebacker Josey Jewell is coming off a 126-tackle junior year.
The schedule is very manageable, with Wisconsin and Nebraska at home and no Ohio State or Michigan State. Michigan’s visit on Nov. 12 could be one of Kinnick Stadium’s biggest games in recent memory. Overall, this is a group that should challenge for, at the very least, a second consecutive Big Ten West title.
16. UCLA
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Jim Mora’s fifth season at UCLA will be interesting. The Bruins are 37-16 under his leadership, but they slipped a bit last fall, following a pair of 10-win seasons with an 8-5 mark.
They return 12 starters but just four on offense and must replace their top rusher and receiver in Paul Perkins and Jordan Payton, respectively. In fact, UCLA lost four of its top five receivers from a year ago, with Payton (78 catches, 1,106 yards) serving as the leader. Junior Darren Andrews (43 catches, 443 yards, 1 TD) and sophomore tailback Soso Jamabo (403 yards, four touchdowns) will be counted upon more heavily.
And of course, the Bruins do bring back one of the nation’s top young quarterbacks in sophomore Josh Rosen, who impressed as a true freshman pocket passer, throwing for 3,669 yards with 23 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. Eight defensive starters return, and the return of defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes, who redshirted following a torn ACL, will also help.
The schedule isn’t easy. September alone features trips to Texas A&M and BYU and a home date with defending Pac-12 champ Stanford, although Utah and Southern California do visit the Rose Bowl. Challenging for a Pac-12 South title might be too much to ask, given the offensive inexperience.
15. Houston
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This is a big year for Tom Herman and Houston. Herman enjoyed a smashing debut in H-Town, leading the Cougars to a 13-1 record that included an American Athletic Conference title and a Peach Bowl win over national power Florida State.
Houston is campaigning for an invitation to the Big 12, with Texas lawmakers offering support, per Brian Davis of the Austin American-Statesman. And another huge season certainly wouldn’t hurt its chances.
The Cougars return 11 starters, led by dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr., who threw for 2,828 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions and rushed for 1,108 yards and 21 scores last fall. He’s one of the nation’s top quarterbacks and the key to Houston’s success; the Cougs’ only loss last season came at UConn with Ward sidelined. Texas transfer Duke Catalon figures to carry the load in the backfield.
The schedule sets up for Houston to make a dark-horse College Football Playoff run. The opener with Oklahoma in NRG Stadium is huge, as is Nov. 17’s visit from a good Louisville team. Go unbeaten and hope for some chaos in the Power Five ranks, and who knows? Houston is the clear favorite to repeat as AAC champ and get the “Group of Five” invite to a New Year’s Six bowl game.
14. Washington
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In two seasons at Washington, Chris Petersen has yet to live up to the lofty expectations that came with his hiring and the 92-12 record he compiled in eight seasons at Boise State. Washington is 15-12 under his guidance and had to win its last two games last fall just to sneak into a bowl game. But this looks like the year everything could change.
The Huskies return 17 starters, led by a strong offensive core that includes sophomore quarterback Jake Browning (2,955 yards, 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) and tailback Myles Gaskin, one of the nation’s top young backs following a 1,302-yard, 14-touchdown freshman campaign.
And the Pac-12’s top defense in 2015 returns eight starters, keyed by a secondary that has talented junior safety Budda Baker and All-Pac-12 cornerback Sidney Jones. Stanford and Southern California come to Seattle, while the Huskies must travel to Utah, Oregon and Washington State. They should, at the very least, challenge for a Pac-12 North title and a 10-win campaign.
13. TCU
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This fall, Gary Patterson and TCU will be defined by change. The Horned Frogs still have the Air Raid offense that led to 23 wins and a Big 12 title in the last two seasons; they’ll just have different personnel employing it.
TCU returns just one offensive starter—junior left tackle Joseph Noteboom. Standout quarterback Trevone Boykin graduated, replaced by Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill, who showed signs of brilliance in his only season as a starter with the Aggies but also had bouts of inconsistency.
To maintain 2015’s average of 42.1 points per game (No. 7 nationally), players must emerge from a young, talented wide receiver corps. KaVontae Turpin is an explosive threat, and upperclassmen Deante Gray and Ty Slanina will provide some veteran presence, with junior college transfer Taj Williams also an impressive target.
The defense, which ranked third in the high-powered Big 12 in scoring defense a year ago, returns seven starters, led by senior defensive end Josh Carraway, who had nine sacks as a junior. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State come to Fort Worth, as does Arkansas, but the Frogs must travel to Texas and Baylor. If the good Kenny Hill emerges, this revamped group will challenge for the Big 12 title.
12. Michigan State
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2015 was a special year in East Lansing. Michigan State put together an amazing run, breaking through as a national power with a 12-2 record, Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff appearance. Building on that will be difficult, however.
The Spartans sustained heavy graduation and NFL draft losses, led by the graduations of steady quarterback Connor Cook and talented defensive end Shilique Calhoun and the early NFL departure of left tackle Jack Conklin.
New starting quarterback Tyler O’Connor is an experienced backup who led the win at Ohio State last November while Cook sat with a shoulder injury, so his learning curve will be smooth. LJ Scott looks to build on a strong freshman season with 699 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, but the receiving corps is a concern.
Senior R.J. Shelton had 43 catches for 503 yards and four touchdowns, but no other returning receiver had more than six catches last fall—DeAnthony Arnett had six for 106 yards and two scores. Defensively, junior defensive tackle Malik McDowell will be one of the nation’s top defensive linemen and a solid linebacker corps is anchored by senior middle linebacker Riley Bullough, who had 106 tackles as a junior.
Overall, the season will come down to two games, with the Spartans hosting Michigan and Ohio State. This is a team that, with a little polish, could again challenge for a Big Ten championship.
11. Ole Miss
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It’s a good time to be in Oxford, Mississippi. In just four years, Hugh Freeze has made Ole Miss more relevant than it has been since the days of Archie Manning, with a 34-18 mark. A year ago, the Rebels upset Alabama for the second consecutive season, won 10 games and routed Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl.
Now, the hard part: staying relevant in the SEC West. It won’t be easy for the Rebels, who return just 10 starters. They must replace three NFL first-round picks in tackle Laremy Tunsil, defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche and receiver Laquon Treadwell.
Tunsil will be replaced by true freshman Greg Little, the nation’s top offensive line recruit, per 247Sports. He’s tasked with keeping Chad Kelly, the SEC’s top returning passer, upright. Kelly threw for 4,042 yards with 31 touchdowns and also led Ole Miss in rushing with 500 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The ground game, led by senior Akeem Judd, is a concern. It’ll be interesting to see how the likes of Damore’ea Stringfellow and Quincy Adeboyejo handle increased roles in the passing game, as well.
The defensive line will be strong despite Nkemdiche’s departure, although replacing two starting linebackers and both starting safeties is an issue.
The schedule isn’t easy, beginning with a Labor Day showdown in Orlando against Florida State and visits from Alabama and Georgia to start the SEC slate. It’s easy to see how this bunch could slip out of the top 10 and out of 10-win territory this fall.
10. Notre Dame
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Head coach Brian Kelly and Notre Dame face an interesting season in 2016.
The Fighting Irish are coming off a 10-3 season that ended with a Fiesta Bowl appearance. But Kelly returns just eight starters and must sort through a quarterback conundrum.
Last fall, Malik Zaire seized the starting role but suffered a season-ending broken ankle in the second week at Virginia. Backup DeShone Kizer took over and was very impressive, throwing for 2,884 yards with 21 touchdowns against 10 interceptions.
Zaire is healthy, but spring practice and preseason practice failed to separate the two in Kelly’s eyes. So he told SI.com's Brian Hamilton he’s playing both, at least for the opener at Texas:
"It's never easy playing two quarterbacks. It's much easier just playing one. But we're in the business of winning. So if it's a little bit harder on us, then we can make that work, if the net is we win the football game. Yeah, there's no question that some people shy away from this kind of business in terms of playing two, because it's easier to just play one. My job is to win, and my belief is playing both of them gives us a better chance to win.
"
Finding offensive rhythm with a unit that must replace its leading receiver and rusher is paramount, although the backfield is in good hands with Josh Adams and Tarean Folston.
The defensive line should be strong, but it’ll be interesting to see how quickly an inexperienced linebacker group and secondary gets up to speed. With Michigan State, Stanford, Miami, Virginia Tech and Southern California on a typically challenging schedule, the Irish will be tested. Another 10-win season is well within their grasp.
9. Tennessee
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Is this finally the year Tennessee returns to national relevance? Volunteer fans certainly hope so.
Butch Jones has done an excellent job rebuilding the Vols’ program, taking UT from five to seven to nine wins in his three seasons. And with 18 starters returning, much more is expected this fall, with Tennessee a popular pick to win the SEC East.
Tailback Jalen Hurd (1,288 yards, 12 touchdowns) forms a solid backfield duo with Alvin Kamara, and senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs is a steady offensive leader. There are concerns about the receiving corps, with Josh Malone the leading returning receiver with 31 catches for 405 yards and two touchdowns.
Tennessee’s defense should be very solid, with defensive end Derek Barnett being one of the nation’s top pass-rushers and senior cornerback Cameron Sutton one of the SEC’s top defensive backs.
The Vols must prove they can win big games; Jones does not own a win over a Top 10 team in his Rocky Top tenure. A stretch of games at Georgia, at Texas A&M and home against Alabama could define the season. No. 9 is a little high for this group, but expect the Vols to prove themselves by season’s end.
8. Stanford
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Under David Shaw’s direction, Stanford hasn’t been the flashiest or most exciting team in the Pac-12. The Cardinal have just been the best. Stanford has won three of the last four Pac-12 titles, and only a listless season-opening loss to Northwestern and a 38-36 loss to Oregon separated the Cardinal from the College Football Playoff last fall.
This will be a bit of a reloading year; Stanford returns only nine starters, but one of them is junior tailback Christian McCaffrey, the Heisman Trophy runner-up. McCaffrey is coming off the best all-purpose yardage season in NCAA history and led the Cardinal in rushing (2,019 yards, eight touchdowns) and receiving (45 catches, 645 yards, five touchdowns).
Stanford does return just two starting offensive linemen and is breaking in a new quarterback in junior Ryan Burns. It also returns five defensive starters.
The schedule starts tough, with a Week 2 visit from Southern California followed by trips to UCLA and Washington, a home date with Washington State, and a trip to Notre Dame on Oct. 15. However, if we’ve learned anything in the last five years, it’s to not doubt David Shaw. The Cardinal will again compete for the Pac-12 title and more in 2016.
7. Michigan
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Jim Harbaugh’s return to Michigan as head coach was met with plenty of pomp and circumstance, and Harbaugh managed to live up to it and then some. He doubled the Wolverines' win total, going from five to 10, and generated significant buzz around the program at the same time.
Now, what does he do for an encore? Michigan returns 14 starters, and expectations are high.
The offense returns eight starters and has a pair of steady wideouts in Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson, as well as an All-American tight end in Jake Butt. The quarterback situation remains unsettled with Houston transfer John O’Korn and Wilton Speight fighting for the job, but the season opener against Hawaii should offer some clarity.
Defensively, strong-side linebacker Jabrill Peppers moves over from the secondary and figures to be one of the nation’s most versatile all-around players, with All-American senior corner Jourdan Lewis holding down the secondary. It’ll be fascinating to watch how defensive tackle Rashan Gary, the nation’s top overall recruit, per 247Sports, develops as a freshman.
A trio of road games at Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State will determine the season’s direction. Expect the Wolverines to contend for a Big Ten title and perhaps more as Harbaugh’s hold on Michigan fans’ hearts grows.
6. Ohio State
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Head coach Urban Meyer wasted no time building Ohio State back into a force to be reckoned with on the national level. In four years, Meyer is 50-4 with a national championship, College Football Playoff appearance and a Big Ten title.
But this will be by far his most challenging season in Columbus. The Buckeyes suffered major NFL draft and graduation losses, with 12 players (including nine underclassmen) taken in the 2016 NFL draft.
Ohio State returns only six starters—three on offense and three on defense. One of them is one of the Big Ten’s best players in junior quarterback J.T. Barrett. A year after a protracted quarterback battle with Cardale Jones, there is no doubt he is the offensive leader. Wide receivers like Corey Smith and Noah Brown have to prove themselves. And is redshirt freshman Mike Weber the answer to succeed Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield? We’ll find out soon enough.
Defensively, ends Sam Hubbard and Tyquan Lewis will lead the line, while junior Raekwon McMillan will anchor the front seven following a 119-tackle sophomore season. This team will be tested early with a Sept. 17 trip to Oklahoma, but the final two games (at Michigan State and against Michigan) will define Ohio State’s ultimate ceiling in 2016. There could be some bumps along the way, but Meyer and his staff have recruited very well. Don’t count the young Buckeyes out.
5. LSU
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Les Miles owns a 112-32 record and a national title during his LSU tenure, but he seemingly is constantly under pressure. Such is life playing in the SEC West and against his predecessor, Nick Saban, who has won four national titles in nine seasons at Alabama. But if Miles can’t win with the group he has this season, you might wonder if he can ever win big in Baton Rouge.
The Tigers return 18 starters, including 10 on defense, and have a roster that can compete with anyone in America.
Leonard Fournette is coming off a 1,953-yard, 22-touchdown sophomore season that featured four 200-yard rushing games. He’s one of four SEC players ever to accomplish that feat; the others (Bo Jackson, Herschel Walker and Derrick Henry) all won Heisman Trophies. LSU needs to get more out of quarterback Brandon Harris, who threw for 2,165 yards, 13 touchdowns and six interceptions as a sophomore.
A strong secondary will anchor LSU’s defense, with hard-hitting safety Jamal Adams and cornerback Tre’Davious White among the nation’s top defensive backs. New defensive coordinator Dave Aranda will use a 3-4 alignment and will be an upgrade from Kevin Steele, who bolted to Auburn after one season.
LSU begins with a Lambeau Field matchup against Wisconsin and hosts Ole Miss and Alabama at Tiger Stadium. Expect Miles and Co. to compete for an SEC West title and, of course, a College Football Playoff spot.
4. Florida State
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When your “down” season is a 10-win campaign that ends in a New Year’s Six bowl game, you’ve got a good thing going. And Jimbo Fisher clearly has that at Florida State.
Fisher is 68-14 at FSU with a trio of ACC championships and a national title in his grasp. And 2016 figures to be a big year in Tallahassee. The Seminoles return 15 starters, including nine on offense, led by one of the nation’s most dynamic backs in junior Dalvin Cook. Cook rushed for 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns and figures to be even better this fall now that he’s fully healthy and not battling through leg injuries.
Redshirt freshman Deondre Francois could face a learning curve after claiming the starting quarterback role, but he was very impressive as a dual-threat passer during spring practices. Six starters return on defense, led by emerging star safety Derwin James and sophomore defensive end Josh Sweat.
The Labor Day opener against Ole Miss in Orlando will be challenging, and trips to Louisville and Miami will be potential roadblocks. But, as always, the season will come down to the Clemson game. The Tigers visit Doak Campbell Stadium Oct. 29, and the ACC Atlantic winner (and a potential College Football Playoff berth) will be determined by the outcome. Florida State will compete for both all season long.
3. Oklahoma
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If anyone wondered about Bob Stoops’ ability to win the big game, well, wonder no longer. Stoops silenced critics with an excellent 2015 season that featured 11 wins, a Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff berth.
The Sooners revamped their offense with new offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley running the Air Raid scheme featuring Baker Mayfield under center, and it was a huge success. OU averaged 43.5 points per game, No. 4 nationally, and Mayfield threw for 3,700 yards with 36 touchdowns against seven interceptions.
OU returns 12 starters, but one of the biggest questions is at wide receiver, where Sterling Shepard’s graduation leaves a big hole that the likes of Dede Westbrook, Geno Lewis and Mark Andrews, among others, hope to fill. But the ultra-talented backfield duo of Samaje Perine (who rushed for 1,349 yards and 16 scores) and Joe Mixon will take some pressure off the passing game.
Six starters return from a defense that led the offense-heavy Big 12 in scoring and total defense last fall. Defensive end Charles Walker and cornerback Jordan Thomas will be among its leaders.
The schedule isn’t easy; Houston and Ohio State are on the nonconference schedule, and the Sooners travel to TCU on Oct. 1 but do host Baylor and Oklahoma State. It’s hard to pick anyone else as the Big 12 winner, and this is a team that will compete for another College Football Playoff trip.
2. Clemson
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Entering his eighth season, Dabo Swinney has transformed Clemson football. The Tigers, known as underachievers under Tommy Bowden’s tenure, have completely shed that label with Swinney’s guidance. Clemson has five consecutive seasons of at least 10 wins and had one of its best seasons ever last fall, winning its first 14 games and leading the College Football Playoff Top 25 until a 45-40 title-game loss to Alabama.
Clemson wants even more in 2016. The Tigers return 12 starters, including eight on offense, and one of the game’s brightest stars in junior quarterback Deshaun Watson. Watson passed for 4,104 yards with 35 touchdowns against 13 interceptions last fall and became the first player in FBS history to pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in the same season, finishing third in the Heisman Trophy voting.
He’ll lead a potent offense keyed by receiver Artavis Scott and tailback Wayne Gallman, and it should be even better with the return of Mike Williams, who redshirted last fall after suffering a neck injury in the season opener.
Brent Venables’ defense was a top-10 unit a year ago but could see some slippage after losing six underclassmen to the draft, including defensive end Shaq Lawson and cornerback Mackensie Alexander. But a talented line featuring defensive tackles Carlos Watkins, Christian Wilkins and freshman Dexter Lawrence should be just fine, and Ben Boulware will be a force in the linebacker corps.
The opener at Auburn will be tricky, but as always, the season will come down to the Oct. 29 visit to Florida State. The faces will be a little different, but Clemson will compete for another College Football Playoff berth and a national title this fall.
1. Alabama
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Win. Reload. Rinse, wash, repeat. That’s life at Alabama with Nick Saban in charge, and it doesn’t figure to change any time soon. A 45-40 win over Clemson sealed the Crimson Tide’s fourth national title in nine seasons under Saban, and Tide fans will expect nothing short of one for the thumb in 2016.
Alabama suffered graduation and draft losses, including losing Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry and monstrous defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson to the NFL. But the Tide do return 11 starters, and Saban’s staff recruits as well as anyone in the nation, creating a wealth of talent ready to develop further this fall.
The biggest question is at quarterback. Junior Cooper Bateman, sophomore David Cornwell, redshirt freshman Blake Barnett and true freshman Jalen Hurts are competing to replace Jake Coker, the second consecutive one-and-done senior starter molded by Saban and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. Calvin Ridley is one of the nation’s best receivers, and Bo Scarbrough looks like Henry’s heir apparent in the backfield and a powerful, speedy runner in his own right.
Alabama’s defense will be led by senior defensive end Jonathan Allen and linebacker Reuben Foster, who should be one of the nation’s top linebackers. The secondary is loaded with corners Marlon Humphrey and Minkah Fitzpatrick and senior safety Eddie Jackson, a returning All-American.
The schedule is challenging immediately, with a neutral-site clash against Southern California to open the season and a Sept. 17 trip to Ole Miss, which owns a two-game win streak over the Tide. A stretch that features trips to Arkansas and Tennessee, a home date with Texas A&M and a trip to LSU will decide if Alabama is playoff-worthy again. Here’s betting the Tide will make its fans happy again in 2016.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
