Clemson vs. Auburn: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
Being the last team to fall is a painful experience, something both Clemson and Auburn know all too well. Auburn lost to Florida State in the final BCS title game in 2014 and has been fighting to get back to a final since, while Clemson's memories of January's championship game loss to Alabama are still fresh.
The push to vie for another title begins Saturday against each other, providing a boost to the winner and putting the loser into an early hole.
Second-ranked Clemson heads to Auburn on Saturday for the first meeting between the teams since 2012, when Clemson scored a 26-19 victory in Atlanta. That was the last of three games in as many seasons, with the home team claiming the win in the previous two years, and Saturday will mark the 50th time these schools have met in football.
Viewing Information
Date: Saturday, Sept. 3
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Place: Jordan-Hare Stadium (Auburn, Alabama)
TV: ESPN
Spread: Clemson -7.5 (per OddsShark)
Clemson Keys to Victory
1 of 6
Give the defense some cushion
Clemson knows what it has on offense, with Deshaun Watson and pretty much everyone else back from the unit that averaged 38.5 points and 514.5 yards per game last season.
The same can't be said for the Tigers' defense, which returns only four starters.
Until that rebuilt defense gets its feet wet, Clemson's offense will be asked to carry the team for awhile. That means not being able to give away any possessions by being sloppy with the ball, which could be an issue since the Tigers lost the turnover battle seven times last year and finished the season minus-two in that department.
Clemson has the second-most third-down conversions in FBS in 2015 (109), and its 47.39 percent efficiency ranked 13th.
Taking the crowd out of it
While it went unbeaten during the regular season in 2015, Clemson dealt with plenty of difficulty when playing on the road. Other than the 58-0 blowout win at Miami, its other four road games were decided by an average of 8.25 points and included wins of three (at Louisville) and five (at South Carolina).
But while those games stayed close, the Tigers managed to hold the lead most of the time and often did so from the outset. They had 14-0 edges at Syracuse and South Carolina, put the first points on the board at Louisville midway through the second quarter and, despite giving up two touchdowns in the first four minutes at North Carolina State, only trailed for one minute and 58 seconds that quarter.
Auburn Keys to Victory
2 of 6
Contain the quarterback
Clemson's Deshaun Watson is one of the most explosive players in college football, and part of what makes him so tough to deal with is his mobility. In 15 games last season he was sacked just 15 times, scrambling away from defenders long enough to still make a throw or just heading upfield to the tune of more than 1,100 rushing yards.
Auburn's front seven will be tasked with trying to turn Watson into a pocket passer, though it isn't easily done and wasn't something it managed to do well last year. It had only 19 sacks, though the team was credited with 78 "quarterback hurries," but 20 of those were by now-graduated linebacker Cassanova McKinzy.
Control the clock
Auburn ranked 95th nationally in time of possession last season, which wouldn't be a bad thing if the Tigers still had an explosive offense. Instead, they averaged 27.5 points per game, which was down eight points from the year before.
Clemson doesn't need much time to score, but if Auburn can extend its drives and keep the opponent's young defense on the field for longer periods of time, it will pay off in the long run.
Clemson Players to Watch
3 of 6
Deshaun Watson
As the first player in FBS history to throw for more than 4,000 yards and rush for more than 1,000 yards, Watson doesn't want to be labeled a dual-threat quarterback, because he thinks that limits what he's capable of doing.
"People have assumed that I have to run the ball before I can throw it most all of my career, all the way back before high school," Watson told Bleacher Report's Matt Hayes this summer. "The one thing I learned early on as a football player is people have their opinions, and I can't change them. But I can show them what they're missing."
Watson had five 100-yard rushing games in 2015, all in the second half of the season, but he also threw for 300-plus yards on five occasions. If Auburn worries too much about his mobility, he's going to throw over the top of the defense.
Carlos Watkins
The only returning starter on Clemson's defensive line, senior Carlos Watkins is key to the Tigers' ability to get their defensive unit off the field early. His availability for the season opener was in doubt earlier this month when Rivals.com reported he missed practice with a hand injury, but last week Clemson coach Dabo Swinney assured reporters that Watkins would be ready to go on Sept. 3.
"He's good," Swinney said, via Tony Crumpton of TigerNet.com. "He's practicing full speed. He'll be ready to roll. He's wearing a soft cast."
Clemson's defensive line depth took a hit during training champ when sophomore end Austin Bryant suffered a foot injury that will keep him out at least three games.
Watkins, a 6'3”, 305-pound tackle, had 3.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss last season.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Auburn Players to Watch
4 of 6
Kerryon Johnson
Though the run game wasn't as effective in 2015 as in the previous two years of coach Gus Malzahn's tenure, it still produced a 1,000-yard rusher (Peyton Barber) and topped the 200-yard mark six times in 13 games.
For that trend to continue this fall, Johnson will have to take on a much bigger role than expected as recently as a month ago.
As a freshman last year, Johnson ran for 208 yards and three touchdowns but never had more than nine carries in any game. He was set to be the No. 2 back behind senior Jovon Robinson, who had 639 yards and three TDs in eight games in 2015, but Robinson was dismissed from the program on Aug. 3.
Auburn also lost Roc Thomas, the No. 3 back in 2015, to transfer.
While Johnson didn't get many touches on the ground last year, he did contribute in other ways that show what he can do. He had 14 receptions for 159 yards and averaged 27.6 yards on 14 kickoff returns.
Carl Lawson
When healthy, Lawson has shown he's one of the most dangerous defensive ends in the country. But being able to stay on the field has been the junior's biggest problem, and when he's been unable to go, Auburn has struggled to pressure the quarterback.
The 6'2”, 253-pound Watson missed all of 2014 with a knee injury and last season was limited to seven games because of hip problems. As a true freshman in 2013, he had 7.5 tackles for loss and a sack with two tackles for loss in the 2015 opener against Louisville before sitting out the next six games.
According to Dan Hope of OrangeAndWhite.com, Clemson co-offensive coordinator Jeff Scott called Lawson "one of the top defensive ends" his team will face all season.
What They're Saying
5 of 6
While Clemson might be lacking in terms of experience on the defensive side, don't think that means that the unit won't be ready to play. Coordinator Brent Venables has earned a reputation for getting the most out of his players, according to Fox Sports' Zach Dillard: "After placing seven in the draft and losing eight starters overall, it's back to square one for Venables' defense. Is there anyone better suited for the task?
Auburn's quarterback competition was decided last week when redshirt sophomore Sean White was picked over senior Jeremy Johnson and junior college transfer John Franklin III. According to offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee, per AL.com's James Crepea, White's experience from 2015 helped give him the edge:
"He's very consistent. He's a steady guy. I think last year, he got his feet wet. He's played, and his teammates believe in him. They've seen him go out there and show great toughness. He's a great competitor. So over the course of the competition, he was just extremely consistent. That probably was the overarching thing.
"
Prediction
6 of 6
Gus Malzahn got Auburn into the national championship game in his first season but enters his fourth on the hot seat after a pair of disappointing campaigns. A great way to cool that temperature below him would be to knock off last year's runner-up, and the conditions are there for an upset.
Looking back at the last four teams to lose in the previous year's title game, their first road contest the following season has resulted in either a loss or a narrow victory. Oregon fell at Michigan State in Week 2 in 2015, while the year before Auburn's first time away from home saw it escape Kansas State with a 20-14 victory in Week 3.
Don't expect Clemson to be intimidated by what should be a sellout crowd at Jordan-Hare Stadium, though. Not when it has arguably the best offense in the country in terms of talent, athleticism and balance.
Auburn will keep it close, but it doesn't have enough to pull this one out.
Clemson 30, Auburn 21
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
