Will Ohio State Unseat Alabama as College Football's Reigning Dynasty?
COLUMBUS, Ohio — After Ohio State's spring game ended in April, Urban Meyer stepped to the podium with an enthusiasm typically reserved for a big rivalry game victory or even a national title.
"What I didn't like? I liked it all," Meyer said when asked for a rundown of his pros and cons from the Buckeyes' annual exhibition. "What I saw today was the future is bright at Ohio State."
The recent past hasn't been too shabby, either.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
With a 50-4 record in the past four years, the Buckeyes lay claim to the highest winning percentage in college football since Meyer arrived in 2012. In that span, Ohio State has accrued winning streaks of 24 and 23 games and won the first College Football Playoff. Now it enters 2016 as the media favorite to win the Big Ten title, according to an unofficial Cleveland.com poll.
Yet when it comes to college football dynasties, there's Alabama and there's everyone else. After all, in the same period Meyer's been with the Buckeyes, the Crimson Tide have amassed a 50-6 record and won two national titles, and they enter 2016 ranked first in the Amway Coaches Poll as Nick Saban's quest for a fifth national title in eight years begins.
If ever there was such a thing as a modern dynasty in college football, it's what's happening in Tuscaloosa right now.
But what about the future, which with a 64-year-old head coach could be uncertain, even as his statue seems to slide further out from under Bear Bryant's shadow on a yearly basis?
What's happening at Alabama has already proved sustainable, but how much longer will it continue? And if it ends sooner rather than later, who will be there to take the Crimson Tide's crown?
As much as images of Derrick Henry running through the Clemson defense in January's national title game may cloud your memory now, it wasn't long ago that Ohio State appeared to have overtaken Alabama as college football's program of the future.
Closer than you'd think
When Ohio State knocked off Alabama in the CFP semifinal two seasons ago, a changing of the guard appeared to have taken place. The Buckeyes went on to win the national championship—a year ahead of schedule, according to Meyer—and with the bulk of their key contributors from that 2014 title team returning for another run, a burgeoning dynasty seemed all but assured.
So what happened?
As far as Ohio State's concerned, a field goal got in their way.
Even with the back-and-forth quarterback battle between Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett dragging on throughout the season, the Buckeyes remained in pole position to defend their championship heading into the second-to-last week of the 2015 regular season. But Ohio State's title defense came to an end in a closer-than-expected affair with double-digit underdog Michigan State, which won 17-14 on Michael Geiger's 41-yard field goal as time expired.
"People say, 'Boy, what happened in that one game?'" Meyer said at Big Ten media days. "A field goal went through, and we lost in a difficult situation."
Geiger's fateful kick didn't just kill the Buckeyes' burgeoning dynasty before it ever began—it also breathed new life into Alabama.
Though the Spartans rode their win against Ohio State to a spot in the College Football Playoff, Michigan State soon found itself overmatched by the Crimson Tide, falling 38-0 in the Cotton Bowl semifinal game. Alabama then topped Clemson to capture its first national championship since the 2012 season, reigniting a dynasty that had appeared to be on life support 12 months prior.
What would have happened had the Buckeyes found a way to hold off the Spartans, setting up a potential playoff rematch with the Crimson Tide? We'll never know.
But based on the dominating way Ohio State finished its season—with convincing wins against Michigan and Notre Dame—it's no stretch to say, at the very least, the Buckeyes could have presented Alabama a taller task than Michigan State did.
"Ohio State could have beaten Alabama again last year," 247Sports director of recruiting Steve Wiltfong said. "They just lost to Michigan State at home in a weird game."
Recruiting rationale
Taking into account the Buckeyes' bowl ban, which likely kept them out of—and perhaps allowed the Crimson Tide into—the national title game at the end of the 2012 season, Ohio State and Alabama have been on equal footing on the field for the past four years.
But what about on the recruiting trail?
Even for a program as rich in history as the Buckeyes, never before has Ohio State enjoyed the success it is when it comes to attracting top-level talent. Dating back to Meyer's first signing day—he had little more than two months to compile a class—the Buckeyes have inked four top-five nationally ranked classes, including a 2013 group that included championship cornerstones such as Barrett, Joey Bosa, Ezekiel Elliott, Eli Apple, Jalin Marshall and Darron Lee.
"That was one of the best recruiting classes ever, and it wasn't ranked No. 1," Wiltfong said of the second-ranked haul. "It should have been."
Looking toward the future, Ohio State has the nation's No. 1 2017 class with five months to go until signing day. It will be one of Meyer's smaller classes from a numbers standpoint, but the Buckeyes are in line to sign an impressive batch that includes six 5-star prospects and the nation's No. 2 dual-threat quarterback, Tate Martell.
The addition of Martell is especially noteworthy. Ohio State has only two 2018 prospects committed—one of whom happens to be 5-star dual-threat quarterback Emory Jones, the top-ranked player at his position in his class.
As far as the future's concerned, the Buckeyes might appear to be set at the most important position for the better part of the next decade.
"People want to play for Urban Meyer because if you make the starting lineup, you have a great chance to make all your dreams come true—winning the national championship and then playing at the highest level," Wiltfong said. "They know what they're looking for at every position, including quarterback."
There's no downplaying the pipeline of talent Saban has built to Tuscaloosa, however.
If recruiting rankings matter—and all indications are they do—it shouldn't come as a surprise the Crimson Tide appear to be in as good of shape as anyone heading into 2016. Since 2011, Alabama has notched each of the nation's six top-ranked classes, and if there's a legitimate threat to take Ohio State's No. 1 spot in 2017, the Crimson Tide have already emerged.
"It's kind of hard to say they're not the pinnacle," Wiltfong said of Alabama. "What they're doing over there—they just recruit a different-looking guy. They're just bigger than everybody."
But as 2013 showed—the Crimson Tide surpassed the Buckeyes' star-studded class on signing day—recruiting isn't always an exact science. When taking into consideration numbers, needs and fits, you're splitting hairs if you try to separate the teams near the top of the rankings.
As their playoff matchup at the end of the 2014 season showed, Ohio State has been right there with Alabama. So as long as the talent is equal, the Buckeyes have what it takes to get the best of the Crimson Tide on the field. Perhaps most importantly, Ohio State's momentum on the recruiting trail doesn't appear to be slowing.
"They are a well-oiled recruiting machine, from Urban Meyer down to the assistant coaches down to the off-field staff, led by [director of player personnel] Mark Pantoni," Wiltfong said. "It's as good as it gets in America."
History repeating?
If Ohio State is going to become college football's next dynasty, 2016 needs to play a crucial part.
Like two years ago, when the Buckeyes won the national title, Ohio State enters this season with no shortage of question marks. Gone are 12 draft picks, including five first-rounders, and 16 starters, which leaves little more than Barrett and middle linebacker Raekwon McMillan as known quantities.
"I don't think that we're thinking expectations are lower this year because people are gone," Barrett said. "There are certain standards at Ohio State, and they shouldn't change for anybody. I don't care how many guys we lost. It didn't alter or change or lower at all."
That's where Meyer's recruiting comes in, with the Buckeyes now counting on highly touted players who have yet to have opportunities like the ones they'll be presented with this fall. In 2014, Barrett, Elliott, Apple, Marshall and Lee went from unknowns to knowns in one short season—and that was after the player Ohio State thought it would count on most, Braxton Miller, suffered a season-ending injury two weeks prior to the start of the year.
With two more Meyer recruiting classes added to the fold since then, it's not unrealistic to think the Buckeyes roster is in a better place now than it was two years ago.
"They got NFL guys coming back," Wiltfong said. "That's what people are banking on when they rank Ohio State No. 5—they're banking on those recruiting classes, and they're banking on Urban Meyer and his staff and their track record of recruiting well and developing well."
It's a cycle Saban has mastered, and that in turn has earned Alabama the benefit of the doubt. This year, the Crimson Tide will replace about half of their starting lineup, but when it comes to Alabama, that number never seems to matter. Year after year, 5-stars walk in as 5-stars walk out, and the Crimson Tide remain in title contention.
Meyer, 52, has yet to earn such acclaim, but as he enters his fifth year with Ohio State, he's getting closer. With another year of reloading, the Buckeyes will not only continue their streak of success but also prove they're set for the future.
Factor in what could be an easy path to the postseason—Michigan still has plenty to prove even with Jim Harbaugh making all kinds of noise in Ann Arbor—and Ohio State shouldn't leave the playoff conversation anytime soon. In the same four-year span in which Meyer has lost to just one Big Ten opponent (Michigan State), Alabama has suffered defeats at the hands of Texas A&M, Auburn and Ole Miss, and re-emerging programs such as Florida, Georgia and Tennessee could provide additional regular-season roadblocks for Saban moving forward.
From a narrative standpoint, college football may have been just one field goal from the birth of a Buckeyes dynasty and the end of the Crimson Tide's. This season, however, will show just where Ohio State stands in relation to the sport's apex, and Meyer's next glowing press conference may not be as far away as it seems.
"If we see some guys step up like we did in '14," Meyer said, "we have a chance to be special."
It's something the Buckeyes are set up to be for a long time.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod.
Unless noted otherwise, all quotes obtained firsthand. Recruiting and class rankings courtesy of 247Sports' composite ratings.
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