USA vs. Argentina: TV Time, Live Stream, Prediction for 2016 Olympic Basketball
It's perhaps unfair to label Team USA as vulnerable when it produced group play's only unblemished record and an unmatched plus-117 point differential.
But it's also unfair to call this team a superpower when its last three victories were decided by a total of 16 points. The Americans have been plagued by an oft-stagnant offense, a disconnected defense and a better-than-advertised Olympic field.
"Obviously, everybody wants us to win by a lot of points, but it's not how it's going to go this time," Kevin Durant said, per USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt.
As the Americans move into the quarterfinals at the Rio Games, their next opponent is the last to defeat them in the elimination stage—Argentina, which captured gold in 2004 and still features four Golden Generation players from that squad, including NBA veterans Manu Ginobili and Luis Scola.
It's a poetic test for Team USA, as the recent near-stumbles have recalled visions of that 2004 collapse. The team's second-leading scorer, Carmelo Anthony, played in that contest and still uses it as an example to help guide this star-studded roster.
"He's very open about what happened there," Draymond Green told reporters, "and he's very open about how that pushed them into wanting to get back to the top."
Will Wednesday's matchup help the Americans find their footing for a gold-medal march, or can Argentina reprise its role as Olympic spoiler?
The winner will advance to play whoever emerges from France-Spain. Here's the rest of the Olympics bracket:
The Familiarity Effect
Team USA has just two Olympic veterans on the roster—Anthony and Kevin Durant—along with 10 first-timers. The Argentines have a core quartet playing its fourth straight Games together: Ginobili, Scola and former NBA swingmen Andres Nocioni and Carlos Delfino.
That level of chemistry can't be manufactured, and the absence of it has surfaced on the American side in the form of missed rotations, blown defensive assignments and limited offensive movement.
"They're just not accustomed to playing with one another," Team USA head coach Mike Krzyzewski said on SportsCenter, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein. "When you're together for one month, it's not as instinctive."
Team USA's defense has been skewered by off-ball movement and baseline cuts. Its late-game offense has often devolved into an isolation-heavy attack. There's a trust factor that appears to be lacking on the American side, which shouldn't be too surprising given how rarely these 12 players have suited up with one another.
"Ever since the Americans started using pros in 1992, it has always been the lone danger with that formula," wrote USA Today's Sam Amick. "The best players on the planet, thrown together in mixtures that don't have much time to jell, will almost always rely on what got them there to begin with: themselves."
That's not necessarily a death knell for the favorites.
Even without years of shared service, Team USA holds advantages in nearly every offensive category over Argentina—points (104.8-88.2), field-goal percentage (49.3-42.2), three-point percentage (39.3-37.0) and assists (26.4-14.8). Furthermore, the Americans have surrendered 4.2 fewer points per game than their quarterfinal counterpart (81.4-85.6).
All of those numbers attest to Team USA's superior talent base.
Isolation offense can still be effective, especially considering six of these players were in the 70th percentile of NBA iso scorers last season. And the Americans' rich collection of length and athleticism poses obvious problems to an aged Argentine team.
But the longer this contest remains close, the more likely Team USA's on-court chemistry could become an issue. Since roasting China and Venezuela to open the Olympics, the Americans have been outscored 78-69 in the fourth quarter.
Defensive Identity Lost
Eight of the NBA's top-20 scorers from last season suit up for Team USA. Yet, when Coach K assessed his troops, he thought their primary strength resided on the opposite end of the floor.
"The one thing we should be able to do better than everyone is play defense," Krzyzewski said last month, per Sporting News' Sean Deveney. "Other teams can score. A lot of them have real good three-point shooters. And we do, too. But we should be a better defensive team than those other teams."
As Team USA defensive guru Tom Thibodeau's constant gravel-voiced pleas can attest, that assumed strength has become this group's biggest liability.
Non-stop motion offenses have exposed flaws throughout this roster. Team USA's pick-and-roll coverage has been weak at the point of attack, and help defenders have been late to cover all of the cracks. As a result, America's points-against totals have risen during each of its five contests, from China's 62 to the 97 France produced without Tony Parker.
"We can outscore teams. But that's not going to win us a gold," Klay Thompson said, per USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt. "We've got to lock up, and we will."
The eye test says this should be—as many thought it would be—one of Team USA's best stopping squads ever. There are larger-than-life limbs sprawling out from nearly every defender, plus the explosive athleticism needed to suffocate opponents.
But teams are targeting starters Kyrie Irving and DeMarcus Cousins in the pick-and-roll game, and American wings are succumbing to off-ball slumber. Good point guards can manipulate this defense—Australia's Matthew Dellavedova, Serbia's Milos Teodosic and France's Thomas Heurtel totaled 26 assists against it—and Argentina's 5'10" floor general Facundo Campazzo might be up to the task.
"Campazzo is the kind of point guard who gave Team USA problems in group play..." CBS Sports' James Herbert wrote. "Team USA's defense has had trouble staying connected against opponents who move the ball well, and that is one of Argentina's biggest strengths."
Team USA must rebuild the chain linking its defenders together, either by keeping everyone engaged on offense with better movement or deploying two-time Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Draymond Green more as a small-ball center.
Prediction
Team USA can sleepwalk its way to 90-plus points. Argentina has only scored more than 90 points twice, and one of those outings featured a pair of overtime periods. It's possible a lethargic American defense coaxes the best offensive output yet from the Argentines, but there are reasons the latter isn't celebrating about drawing the former.
"We still don't want to play them," Ginobili told reporters before the quarterfinal field was set. "Their athleticism, talent, and any given night they can get hot."
Hotter than Argentina can get, assuming Team USA finds anything close to its top gear. The two teams held an exhibition in July, and America rolled to a 111-74 win.
Team USA has since shed its invincibility shield, and Argentina boasts a handful of talented players grasping at their final chance for international success. If Argentina's desperation isn't matched, or if Team USA tries snoozing the alarms raised during group play, there's a possibility the Americans will have tempted fate one too many times.
But the most likely outcome sees Team USA flashing more firepower than Argentina can handle, albeit by a less-convincing margin than the last time.
Prediction: USA 101, Argentina 82
When: Wednesday, Aug. 17, at 5:45 p.m. ET
Where: Carioca Arena 1; Rio de Janeiro
Live Stream: NBC.com
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
