16 Biggest College Football Questions Entering 2016 Season
Talking about college football never really stops. Among recruiting, spring practice, summer workouts, media days and, well, games, it has become a constant part of our national sports conversation. That talk is about to hit a crescendo. The first FBS game is less than three weeks away, with Cal taking on Hawaii in Sydney, and the full slate starts less than a week later.
It’s the perfect time to start asking the important questions about the 2016 college football season. Which new coaches will make a difference? Who will take home the Heisman Trophy? How will realignment’s never-ending churn make its next big impact? Who will win the national title?
Here are the 16 most important questions as college football teams get rolling with preseason practice and prepare for an exciting new season full of promise, pomp and pageantry.
16. Can a Group of Five Team Make the College Football Playoff?
1 of 16
In its first two seasons, the College Football Playoff has been an exclusive club for Power Five programs. The “Group of Five” leagues have had only limited access to the "New Year’s Six" games, but they’ve won both contests (with Boise State beating Arizona in 2014 and Houston toppling Florida State in 2015).
However, Group of Five teams haven’t sniffed the four-team playoff. Two years ago, the Broncos were No. 20 in the final regular-season poll, while Houston was No. 18 last fall. The Cougars hope to change that trend in Tom Herman’s second season. Herman had a smashing debut, leading Houston to a 13-1 record, AAC championship and Peach Bowl win. The Cougars return 11 starters, but one of them is senior quarterback Greg Ward, one of the nation’s most dynamic players.
Ward threw for 2,828 yards, 17 touchdowns and six interceptions, and he added 1,108 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground, joining Clemson’s Deshaun Watson as the only FBS quarterbacks to throw for at least 2,000 yards and rush for at least 1,000. The Cougars return just one starting offensive lineman, but Texas transfer Duke Catalon should bolster the running game.
If Houston has any hope of making the playoff, the Cougars must run the table with wins over Oklahoma and Louisville (both in Houston) and hope chaos reigns elsewhere. Lose to the Sooners in the Sept. 3 opener, and the playoff dream is over almost before it starts.
15. Who Will the Big 12 Grab in Expansion?
2 of 16
We haven’t seen a “will they, won’t they” saga like the Big 12’s expansion process since Ross and Rachel went back and forth on Friends. But after the ACC announced plans for an ACC Network in partnership with ESPN, Bob Bowlsby and league officials decided they were no longer “on a break” from expansion talk and announced plans to study adding either two or four teams to the league’s 10-team mix.
Expansion would bring an increased flow of TV revenue from ESPN and Fox to the league’s coffers, per a pro rata clause in TV contracts, according to Chuck Carlton of the Dallas Morning News. But who will the teams be? Houston has received support from Texas and Texas Tech officials. Cincinnati would be a strong travel partner for West Virginia, who is rather isolated from other league programs.
BYU has a national name and plays a strong national schedule (Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, Michigan State and Mississippi State this season), and its football would fit in nicely with the rest of the league. Memphis or Central Florida would provide a new market for the league as well. Any way the Big 12 turns, it will be a fascinating process that will leave some happy and others in the Group of Five angry.
14. Who Will Be the Best First-Year FBS Head Coach?
3 of 16
As always, college football’s coaching carousel was active, reflective of the intense pressures to win and win immediately. Twenty-eight programs changed their head coaches, and Illinois actually made two changes, hiring Bill Cubit as an interim coach following Tim Beckman’s firing, elevating him to full-time status following the season and firing him in favor of Lovie Smith after a new athletic director was hired. It’s hard to judge a coach on his first season, but guys such as Tom Herman (13-1), Jim Harbaugh and Jim McElwain (both with a 10-win season) showed it is possible to make an immediate impact.
Which program will see the biggest early dividends from its hire? How about Miami? The Hurricanes were expected to be an ACC power but have yet to make a league title game appearance in 12 seasons. Their momentum had stalled under Al Golden, who went 32-25 with a 17-18 ACC mark in four-plus seasons. Meanwhile, Mark Richt needed a fresh start. He won 145 games in 15 seasons at Georgia, including a pair of SEC titles, but three consecutive seasons without an SEC East title were enough to convince Bulldogs officials to move on.
Miami, his alma mater, was a natural landing spot. Richt inherits 16 starters from an eight-win team, led by quarterback Brad Kaaya, an excellent pocket passer. The Hurricanes have a strong defensive line, good receivers and a solid run game. They avoid Clemson from the ACC Atlantic and get Florida State and North Carolina at home while traveling to Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. Richt’s first Miami team has questions, but there’s reason to believe it could steal the ACC Coastal with a few breaks. That’d be big news for Miami fans hungry for a return to the program’s glory days.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
13. Which Power Five Team Will Be Left Out of the College Football Playoff?
4 of 16
In its current format, the College Football Playoff is a high-stakes game of musical chairs. There are five leagues (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) considered part of the Power Five with the easiest paths to the playoff. However, there are only four playoff spots (at least for now), which leaves at least one league left out and angry. Two years ago, it was the Big 12, Baylor and TCU. Last fall, it was the Pac-12 and Stanford.
It's guaranteed to happen again this fall. In the two seasons, only two of eight qualifiers (Clemson and Florida State) have entered the playoff unbeaten, leaving plenty of room for debate. Who are the best bets to make it? Expect either Clemson or FSU to make it from the ACC, as they’re the clear class of the league and play each other Oct. 29. The SEC will not be left out as the nation’s strongest league; Alabama set a precedent by qualifying each season with one league defeat. Expect Michigan or Ohio State to qualify from the Big Ten.
That leaves the Big 12 and the Pac-12, again. Oklahoma made the 2015 playoff despite a loss to Texas. Stanford sat at home after losses to Northwestern and Oregon. Both leagues are highly competitive, with an unbeaten team unlikely to emerge from either. Expect one to be left out (or both if the ACC or SEC sneaks a pair of teams into the mix). That should make the cries for an eight-team playoff even louder.
12. Which Team Will Take a Step Back in 2016?
5 of 16
Under the guidance of Chip Kelly and then Mark Helfrich, Oregon has established itself as a consistent winner and an exciting program. The Ducks have won at least nine games in nine consecutive seasons and looked good doing it, making the national title game twice in five seasons.
However, the first season without Marcus Mariota under center was inconsistent at best. The Ducks began 2015 3-3 with embarrassing home losses to Utah and Washington State. They reeled off six consecutive wins but finished the year by blowing a 31-0 halftime lead to TCU. The defense allowed 485.3 yards per game, No. 117 nationally, and coordinator Don Pellum was demoted in favor of former Michigan coach Brady Hoke.
The Ducks return just four starters on offense, including only two offensive linemen. Royce Freeman’s presence can make up for a lot in the backfield; he’s coming off an 1,836-yard, 17-touchdown sophomore season and is one of the nation’s best backs. At quarterback, graduate transfer Vernon Adams is gone, and Oregon will pick between Montana State transfer Dakota Prukop or freshman Travis Jonsen.
Hoke will use a 4-3 scheme for a defense that returns just four starters. Three of them are in a secondary that allowed 306.5 yards per game, No. 126 nationally. Ouch. This group has potential, but it'll have to adjust quickly to the new scheme.
Oregon travels to Nebraska, Washington State, Southern Cal and Utah, and hosts Stanford and Washington. The Ducks could slip another rung in the Pac-12 hierarchy this fall.
11. Who Will the Next Breakout Team Be?
6 of 16
Every year, a handful of teams emerge from preseason obscurity or, at the very least, the lower reaches of the Top 25 to make national noise. After all, who expected Iowa and Houston to combine for 25 wins, make New Year’s Six bowl games and finish in the Top 10 at this time last August? No one. Neither received votes in the preseason Top 25, but both excelled regardless.
One potential breakout could come from a traditional power. Nebraska struggled in Mike Riley’s first season, finishing 6-7. But the Cornhuskers lost five games by five points or fewer and return 11 starters, including talented senior quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., who should be more comfortable in his second year in Riley’s system.
It might be obvious, but Washington is poised for a breakout in Chris Petersen’s third season. The Huskies are coming off a 7-6 season but return 17 starters with a deep, talented roster.
The offensive backfield is young and excellent. As a freshman, Myles Gaskin emerged as one of the nation’s top runners, rolling up 1,302 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. Quarterback Jake Browning is coming off a solid freshman season, throwing for 2,955 yards with 16 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. He should be improved as a sophomore.
Eight starters return from a defense that led the Pac-12 in scoring defense (allowing 18.8 points per game) and total defense (yielding 351.8 yards per game). The secondary is a major strength, with talented safety Budda Baker and junior cornerback Sidney Jones leading the way. Overall, this is a team that will make its mark in the Pac-12 North.
10. Who Will Notre Dame Start at Quarterback?
7 of 16
Brian Kelly has the kind of problem that could be considered both a positive and a negative. Under Kelly, Notre Dame is in solid shape, coming off a 10-win season and a Fiesta Bowl berth. But at some point this season, the Fighting Irish need to pick a quarterback and stick with him.
The Irish open the season Sept. 4 at Texas. By then, Kelly will likely pick between returning starter Malik Zaire and backup DeShone Kizer. Paul Skrbina of the Chicago Tribune writes it's the defining story of preseason practice for Notre Dame.
"It's great to have the competition and to have someone who is great throwing the ball next to you, but at the end of the day, it's about you and how you're going to develop," Kizer said. "The same way I was trying to develop during the season is the same way I'm going to try to prepare."
Zaire claimed the job and excelled before suffering a season-ending broken ankle against Virginia. Kizer stepped forward and was very good, throwing for 2,884 yards with 21 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, and flashing mobility while rushing for 520 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The duo ended spring in a virtual tie. They’ll get another chance to make their mark in August. Kelly is surely hoping one of them makes his job easy. Both have strengths, but Kizer might have more upside ability.
9. Can Michigan Make the Leap to College Football Playoff Contender?
8 of 16
When Jim Harbaugh took over as Michigan head coach, cautious optimism reigned in Ann Arbor. Harbaugh had a proven track record of turnarounds at San Diego, Stanford and with the NFL’s San Francisco 49ers, but Brady Hoke left behind a 5-7 team that looked bland and boring in his final year.
As Harbaugh begins his second year, that caution has been replaced by excitement. The Wolverines finished 10-3 and lost two games by a combined 11 points, including a crushing 27-23 defeat to rival Michigan State sealed on a final-play blocked-punt touchdown return. The Wolverines return 14 starters and have serious talent on the roster, led by do-everything linebacker Jabrill Peppers, All-America corner Jourdan Lewis and a pair of solid receivers in seniors Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh—not to mention Rashan Gary, 247Sports' top overall 2016 recruit.
With a nonconference schedule of Hawaii, Central Florida and Colorado, and trips to Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa in the final five games, there’s no reason Michigan shouldn’t start at least 7-0. The late-season road trips will be tough, but they’re all winnable games. If Harbaugh can find a capable quarterback between Houston transfer John O’Korn and Wilton Speight, this team could be playoff-worthy.
8. How Will Ohio State and Urban Meyer Handle a Youth Movement?
9 of 16
It didn’t take long for Urban Meyer to turn Ohio State around following the ugly end to the Jim Tressel era. In four seasons at OSU, Meyer is 50-4 with an undefeated season, a national title and a Big Ten title. But 2016 will be his biggest test. Ohio State had an FBS-record 12 players taken in this spring’s NFL draft, including nine underclassmen. The Buckeyes return just six starters, but one of them is the Big Ten’s best quarterback in junior J.T. Barrett, a dual-threat passer who is now the unquestioned leader of the offense.
Across the board, freshmen and unproven players will be expected to take on larger roles, and Meyer needs a talented roster to mature quickly. Receivers Noah Brown and Corey Smith must rebound from injuries, and defensive ends Sam Hubbard and Tyquan Lewis need to build on solid seasons.
Defensive end Nick Bosa (Joey Bosa’s younger brother) and tailback Demario McCall will lead a passel of freshmen who will make big plays but also try Meyer’s patience. A Sept. 17 trip to returning College Football Playoff team Oklahoma will be a litmus test. This team has the overall talent to compete in the Big Ten, but youth could lead to some rough moments.
7. Will Christian McCaffrey Win the Heisman Trophy?
10 of 16
Entering 2015, Christian McCaffrey was a popular breakout candidate. Good call. The Stanford sophomore tailback broke out and broke free in the Cardinal offense, rolling to the best all-around yardage season in NCAA history. McCaffrey rushed for 2,019 yards and eight touchdowns, and also led Stanford in receptions (45) and receiving yards (645) with five receiving touchdowns. For good measure, he averaged 28.9 yards per kick return and had two kick/punt-return touchdowns.
McCaffrey was the Heisman Trophy runner-up to Alabama’s Derrick Henry, and if the ballots were collected in the second week of January instead of the second week of December, he might have been the winner, given his strong Rose Bowl effort in a rout of Iowa. Adam Rittenberg of ESPN.com asked if the Pac-12's lack of exposure might hurt his Heisman hopes.
Stanford returns just one starting offensive lineman and must replace Kevin Hogan at quarterback, but McCaffrey will remain an offensive centerpiece. He’ll receive serious competition from LSU’s Leonard Fournette, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, but if Stanford can keep his visibility high, it would be no stunner to see him cart home the trophy in December.
6. Can Oklahoma Win a National Championship?
11 of 16
Last fall, Baker Mayfield was a transformative figure for Oklahoma’s program. The Texas Tech transfer took the reins of the Sooners offense and, using the Air Raid offense he was already familiar with, led OU to 11 wins, a Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff berth.
Mayfield threw for 3,700 yards, 36 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and also created a mobile threat, adding 405 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. He keyed a potent offense that averaged 43.5 points per game, No. 4 nationally.
The big question: Can Oklahoma go from playoff qualifier to national champion? The Sooners have a roster that puts them in the conversation. They return 12 starters (six on offense). They have one of the nation’s best backfields. Powerful Samaje Perine leads the way following a 1,349-yard, 16-touchdown sophomore season. Speedy Joe Mixon is an outstanding second option who would start for most FBS programs.
There are questions at receiver, where Sterling Shepard takes his 86 receptions, 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns to the NFL. The Sooners will lean more heavily on Dede Westbrook (46 receptions, 743 yards, four touchdowns) and sophomore Mark Andrews. Penn State graduate transfer Geno Lewis could benefit from a steadier offense than he had with the Nittany Lions as well.
The defense returns six starters, led by senior linebacker Jordan Evans (83 tackles in 2015) and junior cornerback Jordan Thomas. The schedule is challenging, with Houston and Ohio State in the first three games, but this is clearly the most talented team in the Big 12. Survive the nonconference slate, and the Sooners have a good chance at making it back to the College Football Playoff and winning the whole thing.
5. Is Florida State Ready to Return to National Prominence?
12 of 16
If you wanted a chance at taking down Florida State, last fall was your time. But that window might have already closed. The Seminoles slipped a little bit in 2015, falling to 10-3 after a three-season run that included three ACC titles, a BCS National Championship and a College Football Playoff berth. However, it’s important to note that one of those losses came on a bizarre final-play blocked field goal returned for a touchdown at Georgia Tech, and that the Seminoles led Clemson at halftime before falling 23-13.
Jimbo Fisher and Florida State return 15 starters (nine on offense) and will employ a deep roster, the product of excellent recruiting by Fisher and his staff. Heisman Trophy candidate and junior tailback Dalvin Cook will lead the way. Cook fought through leg injuries but still rushed for 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns as a sophomore, and should be even better assuming he’s healthy this fall.
There is a big question at quarterback. Senior Sean Maguire missed spring practice while recovering from ankle surgery and watched freshmen Deondre Francois and Malik Henry impress. They’ll push for a starting role this month and throw to a strong receiver corps led by Travis Rudolph and Jesus Wilson.
Jalen Ramsey left early for the NFL, but the defense returns six starters, including sophomore safety Derwin James, a hard-hitting rising star who had a team-leading 91 tackles as a freshman. Fellow sophomore Josh Sweat has major pass-rushing potential.
The opener against Ole Miss in the Citrus Bowl will be challenging, as will a Sept. 17 trip to Louisville. But the season, as always, will be defined by Clemson’s Oct. 29 visit, which will likely determine the ACC Atlantic winner and provide an inside track to the College Football Playoff. But it’s not out of the question that the ACC could break through and put two teams in the playoff, regardless of the Clemson-FSU result. This team has the horsepower to return to national prominence.
4. Can Charlie Strong Right the Ship at Texas?
13 of 16
Two years ago, Charlie Strong was hired at Texas as a change agent. The Longhorns had grown soft and lazy in Mack Brown’s waning years, and Strong came from Louisville with a reputation of tough love and success. As his third season begins, Texas is a more disciplined program but hardly more successful. The ‘Horns are 11-14 with a pair of losing seasons, and the pressure is mounting for Strong to show real progress.
An offensive makeover featuring former Tulsa offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert and the Air Raid offense helps, as does the arrival of freshman quarterback Shane Buechele, whom coaches raved about as an early enrollee running the system. Texas returns 11 starters but only five on offense. Receivers such as sophomore John Burt and freshman Devin Duvernay (who was released from his national letter of intent with Baylor following the Bears’ scandal-filled summer) could make an immediate impact.
Defensively, Texas will build around freshman All-America linebacker Malik Jefferson. The team will count on recruits such as Jordan Elliott and Chris Daniels on the defensive line. An early schedule that features Notre Dame, Cal and Oklahoma State in the first four weeks will test this roster’s resolve. Strong must show progress, or this could be his final season in Austin.
3. How Hot Is Les Miles' Seat at LSU?
14 of 16
Les Miles is one of college football’s most interesting and accomplished coaches. Miles has won 132 games and a BCS national title in 11 seasons at LSU, but when you’re in the same division as Nick Saban, the standards tend to be a bit higher. 2015 was a roller-coaster ride. The Tigers started 7-0 and were in prime playoff position entering a showdown with the Crimson Tide, but a 30-16 loss started a three-game skid that nearly cost Miles his job.
Cooler heads prevailed, largely because the Tigers return 18 starters, led by bruising junior tailback Leonard Fournette, coming off a 1,953-yard, 22-touchdown sophomore season. He’ll be a strong Heisman Trophy contender, and a defense that returns 10 starters and is anchored by a nasty secondary led by senior corner Tre’Davious White and junior safety Jamal Adams will make life tough on opponents.
LSU has an intriguing neutral-site opener against Wisconsin, and gets Ole Miss and Alabama at home in Tiger Stadium. The three-game stretch with the Rebels, Crimson Tide and a trip to Arkansas could define the season and, perhaps, Miles’ tenure in Baton Rouge. Quarterback Brandon Harris must prove he’s capable of carrying the offense if Fournette is slowed for any reason.
2. Can Clemson Finish the Drill?
15 of 16
Eight years ago, an unknown wide receivers coach named Dabo Swinney became Clemson’s interim coach after Tommy Bowden resigned under pressure at midseason. He took over a program that had a reputation for underachieving at the worst possible moments.
It’s fair to say that reputation is long gone. Last fall, the Tigers set a program record for victories, starting the season 14-0 and finishing as national runners-up following a hard-fought 45-40 national title game loss to Alabama. They were No. 1 from the first College Football Playoff poll until the national title game and showed moxie with comeback wins over Florida State and Oklahoma.
And 2016 could be even better. Per CoachingSearch.com, Swinney said he has adjusted his yearly team goals that he’s used since taking over at Clemson (win the opener, win the division, win the state, win the ACC, win the bowl game) because they didn’t result in a national championship.
He has the roster to win a national title, with 12 starters returning led by Heisman Trophy third-place finisher Deshaun Watson, the first player in FBS history to pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in the same season. The Tigers have a loaded offense that also includes standout receivers Artavis Scott and Mike Williams, tight end Jordan Leggett and tailback Wayne Gallman, who rushed for 1,527 yards and 13 touchdowns as a sophomore.
Defensively, there are questions after six underclassmen, led by defensive end Shaq Lawson and cornerback Mackensie Alexander, left for the NFL draft. But defensive tackles Carlos Watkins and Christian Wilkins, and freshman Dexter Lawrence will key a solid front seven along with senior linebacker Ben Boulware.
The schedule is manageable, with the toughest game an Oct. 29 showdown against Florida State in Tallahassee. Clemson has the pieces to get back to the season’s biggest game and win it.
1. Can Alabama Repeat as National Champions?
16 of 16
In college football’s modern era, success at the game’s highest level has been tough to maintain. Since 1994, only three teams have won or shared national championships in consecutive seasons: Nebraska in 1994-95, Southern California in 2003-04 and Alabama in 2011-12. Nick Saban has won four national titles in nine seasons at Alabama, but making it five in 10 will be anything but easy.
The Crimson Tide and Saban have recruited well but face yet another reloading effort this fall. Alabama returns 11 starters but must replace seven players drafted in the first three rounds, including Heisman Trophy winner and 2,000-yard rusher Derrick Henry, starting center Ryan Kelly, monstrous defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson and steady linebacker Reggie Ragland. And that doesn’t include starting quarterback Jake Coker.
Four players, led by junior Cooper Bateman, are vying to replace Coker under center, and tailback Bo Scarbrough looks like the next star of the Alabama backfield. Receiver Calvin Ridley is one of the nation’s top pass-catchers after an 89-catch, 1,045-yard, seven-score freshman season.
The schedule isn’t easy, with a neutral-site game against Southern California and a trip to Ole Miss in the first three weeks. A four-game stretch that features road games at Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU as well as a visit from Texas A&M is also tough. The Tide overcame losses to Ole Miss each of the last two seasons to make the College Football Playoff and could be forced to work through another blemish in 2016.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
