Every Top 25 College Football Team's Toughest Game in 2016
Ask any college football coach what his toughest game will be this season, and don't be surprised if every one of them gives some variation of the same answer: the next one. That's just coachspeak, an attempt to avoid minimizing the challenge of any opponent (particularly the first one) and prevent looking ahead in the season.
We don't have such restrictions. Sure, that opening game of 2016 is the most important right now, but later on down the line, there's likely to be a foe that will be much more difficult to beat. It might not be the best team on the slate, but it is the one that, for whatever reason, may be the toughest to overcome.
Using the preseason Amway Coaches Poll as a guide, we've identified the toughest game of 2016 for each Top 25 team this fall. Think there's another matchup that will be more difficult? Let us know in the comments section.
No. 25 Florida
1 of 25
Sept. 24 at Tennessee
Florida won the SEC East last season but finished a distant second to Tennessee in the 2016 preseason media poll. All that can change, though, if the Gators are able to continue their dominance of the Volunteers.
Last fall's comeback win over Tennessee at home was Florida's 11th in a row in the series, dating back to 2005. The last two have been by a single point, including in 2014 in Knoxville when the Gators pulled out a 10-9 decision.
Florida is set to face three preseason Top 10 teams this season, including LSU and in-state rival Florida State. Tennessee comes first, both chronologically and in terms of its shot at repeating as East Division champions.
No. 24 UCLA
2 of 25
Nov. 19 vs. USC
UCLA plays its home games in the Rose Bowl but hasn't been to the Rose Bowl since 1999. The Bruins' chances to end that drought this season will likely come down to how well they protect their home turf, something that's been an issue the past few seasons.
The Bruins are 37-16 under coach Jim Mora but just 17-8 at home, with five of those losses coming in the last two years. Mora has lost at home to Arizona State (twice), Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford (twice), Utah and Washington State, yet he's 2-0 there against rival USC.
UCLA put itself in position to win the Pac-12 South in 2014 after knocking off the Trojans in the Rose Bowl, but a week later, it lost at home to Stanford and ceded the division title to Arizona. Picked by the league's media to win the South this season, the Bruins will likely need to beat USC at home again to ensure that prediction comes true.
No. 23 Louisville
3 of 25
Oct. 1 at Clemson
The ACC Atlantic Division has been a two-team race for quite a while, with either Clemson or Florida State winning the title every season since 2009. Louisville wants to be included in the conversation this season, but that will require being able to knock off one (or both) of those powers, and the Cardinals will get those chances early on.
Florida State comes to town on Sept. 17, and a win there would put the Cardinals in control of their own destiny heading to Clemson two weeks later. Louisville has been competitive with the Tigers since joining the ACC, losing by six in Death Valley in 2014 and by three points at home last September.
"I feel like we're right there," Louisville coach Bobby Petrino said at ACC media days, per the Tampa Bay Times' Matt Baker. "It's been competitive, but like I said, it's our job to get over the hill and find a way to win."
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No. 22 Oregon
4 of 25
Nov. 5 at USC
Oregon is one of a small group of power-conference teams that are playing six road games this season, with three of those coming in the final month. The Ducks' November road trip begins with the toughest test of that late group, against defending Pac-12 South Division champion USC.
Last year, the Ducks beat the Trojans by 20 points at home, getting six touchdown passes from quarterback Vernon Adams Jr., but he's graduated. Likely new starter Dakota Prukop may need to be just as prolific for Oregon to grab another win in the series.
Oregon was quite good on the road in 2015, winning its final four true road games, including at Washington, Arizona State and Stanford. It's won the last two times it played at USC, most recently in 2012.
No. 21 Baylor
5 of 25
Nov. 12 at Oklahoma
Baylor's thinned-out roster and abrupt offseason coaching change could make many of its games this season more difficult than previously thought. The annual clash with Oklahoma was already going to be a tough one.
The Bears will be heading to Norman after having played at Texas and at home against TCU in the preceding weeks. They lost both of those games in 2015 during their late-season slide, which began with a home loss to Oklahoma, all of which were influenced by injuries at quarterback.
Seth Russell didn't face any of those foes last year, having gone down with a season-ending neck injury in late October. He's all Baylor has left at the position following the transfers of Jarrett Stidham and Chris Johnson.
No. 20 North Carolina
6 of 25
Oct. 1 at Florida State
North Carolina has scheduled two FCS opponents for the second consecutive season, but the overall strength of the 2016 slate is much better than a year ago. That's because the Tar Heels' other two nonconference games are against Georgia in Atlanta and then at Illinois, and their lineup of ACC opponents is more difficult than in 2015 when they went 8-0 en route to the Coastal Division title.
UNC has traded Wake Forest for Florida State as a division crossover foe, going from an opponent that hasn't had a winning record since 2008 to one with 10 or more wins five times since 2010.
FSU will be coming in off consecutive road games, at Louisville and South Florida, and will be licking its wounds and looking to regain confidence or hoping to continue forward momentum. Neither scenario is advantageous for the Heels.
No. 19 Oklahoma State
7 of 25
Dec. 3 at Oklahoma
The schedule isn't kind to Oklahoma State this season, particularly in the Big 12, where it is set to play league powers Baylor, Oklahoma and TCU all on the road. All three matchups will prove difficult for the Cowboys, but the Bedlam rivalry stands out from the pack.
OK State managed to win at Oklahoma in 2014, a come-from-behind victory sparked by a late punt-return touchdown and then a field goal in overtime. The Cowboys may need similar good fortune to knock off the Sooners this time around in order to record their first consecutive wins in Norman since 1995 and 1997.
Coach Mike Gundy is 32-26 in road games during his tenure at OK State, with four of those losses coming at Oklahoma.
No. 18 Washington
8 of 25
Oct. 8 at Oregon
Washington heads into 2016 with its best preseason ranking since 2002 thanks to a hot finish to last season when it won its final three games. Before that, the Huskies had lost five of seven, including to Oregon for the 12th year in a row.
The Ducks have been Washington's biggest nemesis this century, and the games in Eugene have rarely been close. Washington's last visit to Autzen Stadium, in 2014, was a 45-20 blowout and marked the sixth straight defeat there by at least 20 points.
"UW fans want this game," SB Nation's John Saylor wrote. "Seniors like Kevin King and Darrell Daniels want this game. The younger guys? They want to be the ones who end the streak and start a new one."
No. 17 USC
9 of 25
Sept. 3 vs. Alabama (in Arlington, Texas)
As deep as the Pac-12 was in 2015 and may be again this season, USC isn't likely to face a team in its own league as good as the defending national champions. The fact the Trojans have to do so right off the bat only makes the matchup even more difficult.
According to FanSided's Reign of Troy blog, USC coach Clay Helton "says he thinks about Alabama every night until he falls asleep. 'It's all encompassing.'"
That's understandable, considering Alabama has won 12 straight games, with three of those coming since USC's last victory in its regular-season finale against UCLA. That was followed by Helton being named the permanent coach and then consecutive losses to Stanford in the Pac-12 title game and Wisconsin in the Holiday Bowl.
USC's last three-game losing streak came to end the 2012 season, part of a 1-5 finish under Lane Kiffin. Kiffin is now Alabama's offensive coordinator.
No. 16 Georgia
10 of 25
Oct. 29 vs. Florida (in Jacksonville, Florida)
Mark Richt won 145 games in 15 seasons at Georgia, but it was his lack of results in two key areas that prompted the school to make a change: division titles and wins over rival Florida.
Richt was 5-10 against the Gators during his tenure, a statistic that new Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart has likely been reminded of dozens of times since taking the job. Florida's last two wins in the series, in 2014 and 2015, came despite playing backup quarterbacks.
Smart has been on the winning side of five straight games against Florida, including in last season's SEC title game, but that was as Alabama's defensive coordinator. It's a different animal when he's responsible for all facets of a team.
No. 15 Iowa
11 of 25
Sept. 17 vs. North Dakota State
The Big Ten banned its teams from playing FCS schools starting in 2016, but pre-existing contracts were allowed to be honored. Iowa might end up wishing it were forced to cancel its game against five-time FCS national champion North Dakota State.
The Bison have won five consecutive games against FBS opponents, one each from 2010-14. Only one of NDSU's such conquests (Kansas State in 2013) came against a team that would finish with a winning record, but that in no way takes away from its recent dominance against the upper level.
Iowa has a rather advantageous schedule in the Big Ten, with nearly all of its tough opponents coming to Iowa City this fall. Some will likely be better than NDSU, but none will be as challenging when you add the potential impact of a loss to the equation.
No. 14 TCU
12 of 25
Oct. 1 vs. Oklahoma
TCU's performance against Oklahoma has been directly linked to its finish in the Big 12 the past two seasons, and the same figures to be the case this year.
It was the 2014 win over Oklahoma that officially signaled TCU was going to be a player in the league, a 37-33 victory that helped the Horned Frogs share the conference title and pace a 12-1 season. Then last year, a one-point loss at the Sooners eliminated the Frogs from title contention,.
TCU gets Oklahoma early like it did in 2014, its second Big 12 game and with an extra day to prepare with the previous game at SMU set for a Friday night. Win that one, and it takes control of the conference and has everyone else trying to play catch-up.
No. 13 Houston
13 of 25
Sept. 3 vs. Oklahoma (at NRG Stadium)
Non-power programs can often define their season by being able to beat a team from one of the big conferences. Houston did this in 2015 by winning not once but three times against power teams, beating Louisville and Vanderbilt in the regular season and Florida State in the Peach Bowl.
The 2016 season offers two more chances to take down a notable foe, starting with a major test right off the bat. Though the Cougars will be the de facto home team, playing in their own city but in the home of the NFL's Houston Texans, that won't make it any easier to knock off the reigning Big 12 champions.
Houston, which also gets Louisville at home in November, could put itself in position to be the first “Group of Five” school to get into the playoffs if it can knock off the Sooners.
"That game is not gonna make or break our season," Houston coach Tom Herman said, per Joey Knight of the Tampa Bay Times.
No. 12 Ole Miss
14 of 25
Oct. 22 at LSU
Hugh Freeze has Ole Miss' program at its highest level in decades. Last season was the Rebels' first with 10 wins since 2003. Being able to post consecutive 10-win campaigns for the first time since 1959-60 will require being able to win in one of the few places he's yet to come out ahead.
The Rebels haven't won at LSU since 2008, though they've come close. Their last three games in Death Valley have been decided by three, six and seven points, respectively. The 2014 loss was a particularly deflating one in which Ole Miss led 7-3 entering the fourth quarter but then yielded a 13-play, 95-yard drive for the deciding score.
Freeze has won at Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Texas and Texas A&M, but it will likely take a victory in Baton Rouge for his 2016 team to meet its goals.
No. 11 Michigan State
15 of 25
Nov. 19 vs. Ohio State
Michigan State has three wins over Ohio State since 2011, including last year when it went into Ohio Stadium and knocked off the defending national champions. The Spartans are the reigning Big Ten champs, but again, they aren't getting much credit in the eyes of the media.
A poll of 39 Big Ten journalists conducted by Cleveland.com had only six ballots list Michigan State as the conference's East Division winner, and all of those were as part of a first-place tie with either Ohio State or both OSU and Michigan. That's in spite of the Spartans getting both of those teams at home this fall.
OSU edges out Michigan for MSU's toughest game only because it happens last and thus will have more bearing on the division race. The Buckeyes have won their last five games in East Lansing, with MSU having not won at home in the series since 1999.
No. 10 Tennessee
16 of 25
Oct. 15 vs. Alabama
Tennessee's 2016 schedule is about as front-loaded as you can get, with its first seven opponents having all made bowl games last year, while the final five all had losing records. That means the Volunteers' season will be determined by how they manage the first two months and how they either build off a win or rebound from a loss.
And it will be the game that ends that rigorous seven-game slate that should prove to be the most difficult, even though it's at home. Alabama is a permanent crossover rival and one that has held the edge over the Vols for quite some time, winning the last nine games and positively destroying them in Knoxville.
Tennessee may have turned a corner in the series last October, though, when it lost 19-14 in Tuscaloosa but had a fourth-quarter lead. Most previous matchups with the Crimson Tide had been decided long before the final period, and coach Butch Jones will want to tap into how his team played last year in preparing it for the 2016 edition.
No. 9 Notre Dame
17 of 25
Nov. 26 at USC
As an independent without the benefit of a conference title to boost its postseason resume, every game on Notre Dame's schedule is ultra important. None more so, though, than the final one, which will be the Fighting Irish's last chance to impress the playoff selection committee.
That finale will be out west, as it's been each year since 1994, rotating that final game since 1998 at either Stanford or USC. Last year, Notre Dame fell at Stanford on Thanksgiving weekend. That 38-36 loss ended the Irish's hopes of getting into the College Football Playoff.
Many of Notre Dame's bids for a national title have ended in California, including in 2002 and 2006 at USC. It's won two of the last three at USC but was blown out there in 2014 at the tail end of a four-game losing streak.
No. 8 Michigan
18 of 25
Nov. 26 at Ohio State
What Jim Harbaugh was able to accomplish in his first season back at Michigan was nothing short of phenomenal. He took what previous coach Brady Hoke left behind—but couldn't do much with—and quickly molded it into a quality outfit, though one that wasn't able to win the big games in conference play.
It was a freak play at the end of the Michigan State game that led to defeat, but against rival Ohio State, the Wolverines were flat-out destroyed. Michigan allowed 369 rushing yards—more than triple its season average—in a 42-13 loss that was never close.
And that was at home. Michigan has lost seven straight games at Ohio State, with four of those by at least 14 points.
Harbaugh had success against OSU during his playing days, beating the Buckeyes twice, including on the road in 1986—a 26-24 victory he "guaranteed" beforehand.
No. 7 Stanford
19 of 25
Nov. 12 at Oregon
The Pac-12 was the power conference that missed out on the 2015 playoffs because of league champion Stanford's two regular-season losses. The Cardinal looked like they would be able to overcome the first one, in their opener at Northwestern, by bulldozing through their next eight opponents, but then Oregon spoiled the party.
Stanford's 38-36 home loss to the Ducks last November was decided on a missed two-point conversion in the final minutes. Had Austin Hooper caught Kevin Hogan's two-point pass, Stanford might have been able to pull it out in overtime, and the entire playoff landscape would have been different.
Now comes the rematch, set for the same point in the season but this time in Eugene. Stanford won there in 2012 but was blown out by 29 the last time it visited Autzen Stadium, and that was with an experienced quarterback in Hogan. The Cardinal don't have such a luxury this season, though they do have do-everything junior Christian McCaffrey to lean on.
No. 6 LSU
20 of 25
Nov. 5 vs. Alabama
Big things are once again expected from LSU, which started last season with seven straight wins before suddenly dropping out of the playoff picture. It was a 14-point loss at Alabama that began the free fall of three consecutive losses and put Les Miles on termination watch.
The Tigers have dropped five in a row to the Crimson Tide, stemming back to the 2012 BCS title game, with two of those losses in Baton Rouge. They've only lost two other games in Death Valley during that span.
Miles' job was in jeopardy last fall after his team began losing, though he was given a reprieve and has one of his most experienced teams ever in 2016. However, that also means not being able to come through with all that talent will make it difficult to stay employed beyond this season.
"Les Miles earns himself another season or two with the Tigers by beating Nick Saban this season, something that's becoming increasingly more difficult for him to do," 247Sports' Brad Crawford wrote.
No. 5 Ohio State
21 of 25
Sept. 17 at Oklahoma
Ohio State faces a doozie of a 1-2 combo to end the 2016 regular season, visiting Michigan State and then taking on Michigan, either of which could qualify as the Buckeyes' toughest game of the year. Each is by far among the most important, but those are familiar opponents they have plenty of tape on.
The same can't be said for Oklahoma, which, like Michigan State, made the playoffs last season but brings back much more than the Spartans. Namely, it's top offensive weapons such as quarterback Baker Mayfield and running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine who will put OSU's rebuilt young defense to the test.
"I'm glad we have two games to get a little bit underneath our belt," OSU coach Urban Meyer said at Big Ten media days. "It would be hard to take a completely green team into a game like that."
It's hard to imagine facing Bowling Green and Tulsa at Ohio Stadium will adequately prepare the Buckeyes for Norman, where Oklahoma averaged 47 points per game last season.
No. 4 Florida State
22 of 25
Oct. 29 vs. Clemson
Despite winning 10 games and playing on New Year's Eve, the 2015 season was considered a minor setback for Florida State because it didn't involve either the playoffs or the ACC title game. The Seminoles played in three straight ACC finals from 2012-14, during which they also won a national championship and reached the semifinals a year later.
Had they won at Clemson last November, it might have been more of the same, despite a previous loss to Georgia Tech, since the Clemson/FSU winner has determined the Atlantic Division title every year since 2009. And that will probably be the case again this season, though Louisville might have something to say about that.
FSU has to go to Louisville on Sept. 17, one of two tough ACC road games it has in the first half of the schedule, but neither figures to be as difficult as facing Clemson. The game being at home helps, since the 'Noles have won four in a row there over the Tigers, but not by much.
No. 3 Oklahoma
23 of 25
Oct. 8 vs. Texas (in Dallas)
Oklahoma has the toughest nonconference schedule in the country among playoff contenders, and much like in 2015, it has a gauntlet of tough competition to face in the Big 12 late in the season. Yet a game that shouldn't require coach Bob Stoops to get his players motivated is the one that may prove most difficult.
The Sooners managed to reach the playoffs last year despite a stinker of a performance in mid-October against rival Texas. The Red River Shootout isn't as big a game from a national perspective as it was in the past, but that shouldn't cause either participant to take the matchup lightly; however, that's how it seemed with Oklahoma.
Texas coach Charlie Strong said at Big 12 media days that the Oklahoma game is the "one game I don't have to even give a pep talk," and the same should be the case for Stoops and his team.
Though it showed in 2015 that a loss there can be overcome, in terms of a Big 12 title and a shot at a national championship, this time around, Oklahoma could already be coming in with a loss. The Sooners open against Houston and host Ohio State in Week 3, and if they fall in either of those games, there will be little margin for error afterward.
No. 2 Clemson
24 of 25
Oct. 29 at Florida State
The ACC Championship Game is set for Dec. 3 in Charlotte, North Carolina, but unofficially, the league title will be decided five weeks earlier in Tallahassee. Either Clemson or Florida State has won the Atlantic Division every year since 2009, and the winner of their annual regular-season game has ended up playing in the conference final.
Clemson ended a three-year losing streak to the Seminoles last season, winning 23-13 at home, but it hasn't been victorious in Doak Campbell Stadium since 2006. The Tigers came close in 2014, falling in overtime in a game that served as the first breakout performance from then-freshman Deshaun Watson, who threw for 266 yards and ran for a touchdown.
The Tigers will have the benefit of a bye before this game, though that could end up being detrimental because it will mean extra time to dwell on the lack of success in Tallahassee. Last year's win came on normal rest and after a challenge the week before by North Carolina State.
No. 1 Alabama
25 of 25
Sept. 17 at Ole Miss
As the defending national champions, Alabama will have a target on its back each and every week. Few things stand out on an opponent's season resume more than posting a win over the reigning champs, something coach Nick Saban is aware of by having won four titles since 2009.
But Alabama's toughest game stands out because of how the recent clashes with Ole Miss have gone—namely consecutive losses, as the Rebels are the first team to beat 'Bama in consecutive seasons since LSU did it 2010-11 (but then the Tigers lost to the Tide in the BCS title game to end that season).
The Rebels have handed 'Bama its only regular-season blemish the past two seasons. The 2014 loss is understandable, since it came on the road, but last September's setback stands out because the Tide beat themselves by turning it over five times. It's also the first SEC game on the schedule, where a loss could put winning another West Division title in jeopardy.
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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