Teams with Best Chances to Crash College Football Playoff

Though favorites have emerged in preseason College Football Playoff projections, a currently underrated team will likely exceed expectations and claim a spot in the four-team tournament.

But which program will it be?

Teams inside the top 10 of Odds Shark's championship odds were not considered for the list. The excluded programs are Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Oklahoma, LSU, Baylor, Florida State, Notre Dame and Stanford.

Of the 118 remaining schools, we've identified five programs with the best rosters, schedules and conference outlooks that could chase Playoff glory in 2016.

Houston

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Conference affiliation is Houston's primary disadvantage. "Group of Five" teams probably need a 13-0 record to earn a CFP bid. But the Cougars already have the nation's attention.

What if Greg Ward Jr. stays healthy and propels Tom Herman's team to a 12-1 finish that only includes a season-opening loss to reigning Big 12 champion Oklahoma? In that case, Houston would close the season with a win over Louisville, a road victory against Memphis and a second straight AAC crown.

Should the Cougars end 13-0, this isn't even a conversation.

At the absolute worst—barring injury to Ward, which is no guarantee—the offense will be tremendously fun to watch. Plus, the defense could be among the conference's best units.

Houston is the clear favorite to represent the Group of Five in a New Year's Six bowl game. Will it end up being a semifinal?

Iowa

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According to Danny Payne of the Daily Iowan, star cornerback Desmond King returned for his senior season because the Hawkeyes have "unfinished business."

Can Iowa claim the all-important conference championship?

Much of the nation's 22nd-ranked defense is back, including King, Josey Jewell, Greg Mabin and Miles Taylor. Offensively, C.J. Beathard, LeShun Daniels and Matt VandeBerg lead the way.

The Hawkeyes almost certainly won't finish undefeated, but a one-loss Big Ten champion reached the CFP in 2014 and 2015.

Additionally, Iowa hosts North Dakota State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska, meaning the toughest road matchups are Minnesota and Penn State. Hawkeyes fans can't complain about that.

Oklahoma State

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Few teams encounter a more daunting road schedule in conference play than Oklahoma State. Fortunately—on paper, at least—the offense is built to overcome unfriendly environments.

Quarterback Mason Rudolph has plenty of production returning at receiver in James Washington, Marcell Ateman, Jhajuan Seales, Jalen McCleskey and Austin Hays. The entire offensive line returns, but the Cowboys need that experience to translate into development.

Put simply, Oklahoma State lacked any semblance of a non-J.W. Walsh-in-the-red-zone rushing attack. The team trudged to the country's seventh-worst standard-down average, per Football Outsiders. Still, the Pokes scored 39.5 points per game—14th-best nationally.

Every bit of optimism depends on the defense, however.

There's no way around it: Emmanuel Ogbah and Jimmy Bean are problematic losses up front. But if OSU pieces together an average Big 12 defense, Rudolph and Co. can handle the rest.

Oregon

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After a season tainted by injuries to Vernon Adams Jr., Oregon is an overlooked team on college football's second tier. Considering the state of the Pac-12, that shouldn't happen.

Between USC's brutal schedule, UCLA's losses and an otherwise mediocre South Division, the champion is probably coming from the North. Christian McCaffrey's presence makes Stanford the favorite, while Washington and Washington State are legitimate contenders.

However, Stanford will oppose each of those four conference foes by Oct. 8 and then head to Notre Dame. Oregon, on the other hand, might be 6-0 after toppling Nebraska and the Washington schools if Dakota Prukop settles in quickly.

Defense could be an issue, but Royce Freeman headlines a dangerous and well-rounded offense. Plus, the Ducks are practically unbeatable at home when healthy.

Barring an early upset, Oregon's path to the Playoff in November goes through USC, Stanford, Utah and Oregon State.

TCU

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Injuries, injuries and more injuries: The story of 2015 TCU.

Should the Horned Frogs avoid that misfortune, they're serious contenders in the Big 12. Josh Carraway leads a defense that brings back a majority of its production.

Now, TCU needs a quarterback. Foster Sawyer and Kenny Hill are vying to replace Trevone Boykin. Neither will perfectly match him, but the Horned Frogs should offer a formidable supporting cast.

Although Josh Doctson chased NFL dreams and cannot be replaced by one person, Ty Slanina and Deante' Gray return after missing last season due to injuries and John Diarse transferred from LSU. They join KaVontae Turpin and Jarrison Stewart.

TCU hosts Arkansas (Sep. 10), Oklahoma (Oct. 1) and Oklahoma State (Nov. 19). Road games against West Virginia (Oct. 22) and Baylor (Nov. 5) are certainly manageable.

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All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from cfbstats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.