SEC Football Q&A: How Many SEC Teams Will Earn Bowl Berths in 2016?
The SEC set a record last year when it won nine of its 11 bowl games—including Alabama's College Football Playoff National Championship victory over Clemson in Glendale, Arizona.
What will it do for an encore?
The prognostications for the SEC in 2016 are all over the place. Alabama, the preseason pick to win the SEC title, will have plenty to contend with in its own division from Ole Miss, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. On the east side, Tennessee is the odds-on favorite to win the East over defending champion Florida and Kirby Smart's Georgia Bulldogs.
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Will the SEC one-up itself in bowl season? How many chances will the conference have? Those questions and more are answered in this week's edition of SEC Q&A.
The SEC sent 10 teams to bowl games last year with Alabama playing in two. It will go even bigger in 2016, when 11 teams will travel to exotic (and sometimes not-so-exotic) locations to participate in bowl season—ignoring the possibility that some 5-7 teams could also earn bowl berths based on Academic Progress Rate (APR).
Like last year, the entire SEC West will finish .500 or better and play in the postseason.
When we voted on the predicted order of finish at SEC media days earlier this month, I pegged Mississippi State and Arkansas at the sixth and seventh spot, respectively. Those two teams—or whoever brings up the rear in the West—might have to scratch and claw to get that sixth win, but the entire division will go bowling for the third straight holiday season.
The East is a bit trickier.
It's safe to assume that, barring extraordinary collapses, Tennessee, Florida and Georgia will at least win six games each. What about the rest of the division, though?
I know it's not sexy to talk about the good things that Vanderbilt has done over the last calendar year, but head coach Derek Mason made one of the best coaching moves of the year last offseason when he named himself as the Commodores defensive coordinator. They finished fourth in the nation in red-zone touchdown defense (38.78 percent) and sixth in the nation in third-down defense (28.16 percent). They tied for fourth in the SEC in opponent's plays of 40 or more yards (eight).
The core of that defense is back, the 'Dores can run the ball effectively behind 1,000-yard back Ralph Webb and have a quarterback set in stone (Kyle Shurmur) for the first time in Mason's three seasons in Nashville.
If I'm wrong about Vanderbilt, though, it likely means one of the other lower-tier SEC East teams—Kentucky, South Carolina or Missouri—is better than expected. If that's the case, that surprise team will likely make a bowl and be that illustrious 11th team in the postseason.
In the distant future, yes. But it won't happen anytime soon.
With the ACC locked in through a grant of rights deal through 2036, it essentially leaves the Big 12 as the only other conference that—at least in theory—could be picked apart. After all, nobody from the Big Ten or Pac-12 would go anywhere thanks to the money that those two conference are raking in.
But with the Big 12 looking to expand, I find it hard to believe that any potential expansion wouldn't include a similar grant of rights extension that includes the creation of some kind of Big 12 television network—most likely on the streaming side first, followed by a traditional television channel.
Because of that, the next wave of expansion—which would likely lead to five, 16-team superconferences—would be much different than the last go-round.
The SEC—and all Power Five conferences—wouldn't be picking from major programs. They'd likely be choosing teams based on geographical fit. Because of that, the SEC is more likely to be looking at programs like UCF, USF, East Carolina, Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston and others who don't join the Big 12 during the current round of expansion.
Would schools like Georgia, Florida, South Carolina and Kentucky—which have typically banded together and opposed expansion within those states—hold strong? I'm not sure they could, because it would vastly limit the options that the SEC has to choose from.
This is a far-off hypothetical.
Unless the Big 12 adds six teams right now—which is something I would consider doing since the pool of teams won't change five, 10 or 15 years from now—the age of 16-team superconferences is something that our kids will be covering.
It will happen eventually, though.
"@BarrettSallee which SEC team has the most difficult opening game?
— Kevin Waters (@KruptoVol) July 25, 2016"
It'd be easy to point toward Auburn's home showdown with national runner-up Clemson or Alabama's trip to suburban Dallas to take on USC at AT&T Stadium.
I'm going to go in a different direction, though. Texas A&M's game against UCLA at Kyle Field is incredibly fun, and will be a big-time challenge for head coach Kevin Sumlin and the Aggies.
There are a lot of issues at play.
UCLA boasts a veteran defense that current Aggies offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone knows well from his days in Westwood. Conversely, that Bruin defense and head coach Jim Mora know exactly what to expect from a Mazzone-led offense after seeing it in practice every day for the last four years.
Toss in the unknown element of how new quarterback Trevor Knight will fit in behind an inexperienced offensive line, and you should get your popcorn ready when Texas A&M has the ball.
What's more, the Aggies defense—in its second year under coordinator John Chavis—will be squaring off against one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Josh Rosen. Will the Aggies secondary—which finished second in the SEC in pass defense in 2015 (166.3 YPG)—hold its own against the potential Heisman Trophy candidate?
This game is critical for Texas A&M.
Kevin Sumlin's biggest home win during his tenure at Texas A&M is either Vanderbilt in 2013 or Mississippi State last year. Getting a win over a UCLA team that should contend for the Pac-12 South in Week 1 of a critical year for Sumlin would go a long way toward cooling that hot seat.
A loss, however, could be devastating.
This game could go in a variety of different directions, with the stakes for Texas A&M being enormous.
Yes, as long as John Franklin III—the junior college transfer from East Mississippi Community College, formerly of Florida State—can find a few things that he can do consistently with his arm within head coach Gus Malzahn and offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee's offense.
Auburn was deadly on the ground in 2013 thanks to quarterback Nick Marshall's ability on the edge, Tre Mason's work between the tackles and an interior offensive line that routinely got downhill and plowed the road.
Franklin's speed is obvious—he boasted a 4.28-second laser-timed 40-yard dash after spring practice. Jovon Robinson is a 6'0", 219-pounder who has the power to do work between the tackles. Braden Smith and Alex Kozan are both incredibly athletic guards who can replicate that same success—especially considering Kozan started at guard in 2013 for the Tigers.
Who's going to be that deep threat that can help Franklin out, though? Marshall relied heavily on Sammie Coates to keep defenses honest, and Auburn doesn't have a guy set in stone quite yet.
It doesn't have to stay that way, though.
Marcus Davis is a veteran who has played a big role in the offense over his first three seasons. Tony Stevens is a big-bodied veteran who has been around the block. Darius Slayton is a 6'2" monster who redshirted a year ago, and there are several true freshmen on campus who could shine.
One of those pieces will click, and Auburn's offense will take on a very 2013-ish flavor if Franklin wins the starting job.
Quotes obtained firsthand, unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com, unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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