Projecting College Football Preseason Top 25 at the Start of Fall Camp
Fall camp brings the return of college football, and it also marks the final days before the preseason Top 25 is released.
Generally, the rankings are a culmination of offseason hype and parroted expectations. Some programs will have glorious rises from low or unranked spots, while others will encounter unceremonious falls.
However, we're focused simply on how the rankings will initially look, not how they'll finish following the College Football Playoff.
Debates are sure to occur in the comments section. But remember, the preseason poll is the final landmark before arguments happen because of actual football. We're almost there.
25. Oklahoma State
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Boise State deserves serious consideration for a Top 25 spot. Texas A&M has received a fair bit of attention, and Miami has jumped onto the national radar because of head coach Mark Richt and quarterback Brad Kaaya.
None of those teams have Oklahoma State's resume, though.
After a 10-3 season, the Cowboys are a Big 12 contender. Quarterback Mason Rudolph returns with a strong receiving corps.
The questions are whether the offensive line can help OSU establish a running game and if the defense can replace Emmanuel Ogbah's production to keep the Pokes in the conference race entering Bedlam.
24. North Carolina
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The reigning Coastal Division champion, North Carolina will attempt to protect its crown with a new signal-caller.
Mitch Trubisky—who has compiled a 65.6 completion percentage, 1,104 yards, 11 touchdowns and just four interceptions in limited action—will step in for multiyear starter Marquise Williams.
Receiver and punt returner Ryan Switzer highlights a balanced roster, but the level of progression under defensive coordinator Gene Chizik will have a greater impact on the Tar Heels' success in 2016.
23. UCLA
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Though UCLA not appearing in the polls wouldn't be a surprising development, Jim Mora's team should draw enough attention to secure a Top 25 position.
Will the Bruins stay there?
That's primarily up to sophomore quarterback Josh Rosen, who is directing a new offensive system while the receivers try to replace three of the top four options. Granted, the return of Eddie Vanderdoes boosts a defense that should be among the Pac-12's best.
September games at Texas A&M, at BYU and home to Stanford will provide everything we need to know about UCLA.
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22. Louisville
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Following an 8-5 campaign, Louisville has quietly climbed into the Top 25 conversation throughout the offseason.
Most of the attention is the result of praise for quarterback Lamar Jackson. He shared the starting job last year but is the clear-cut guy in 2016. Head coach Bobby Petrino called Jackson the "face of our program," per Steve Jones of the Courier-Journal.
Additionally, just six teams return more production than the Cardinals, according to SBNation's Bill Connelly.
Louisville's young but talented roster must overcome Florida State at home, as well as road games against Clemson and Houston.
21. TCU
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While transition at quarterback dominates the TCU discussion, an improved defense should lessen the burden on the winner of the battle between Kenny Hill or Foster Sawyer.
Enough to compete for a Big 12 title? Maybe.
Injuries hampered the Horned Frogs last season, which forced younger players into the lineup. Now, veterans return alongside the experienced youth. The receiving corps experienced the same.
TCU has the pieces to hang around with Oklahoma. But first, head coach Gary Patterson needs a quarterback.
20. Washington State
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If the defense is merely decent, Washington State might be trouble. After all, the offense will be a menace.
Luke Falk completed 69.4 percent of his 644 passes last season, amassing 4,561 yards and 38 touchdowns to just eight picks. Standout receiver Gabe Marks headlines a deep pass-catching unit.
But after mustering a No. 84 finish nationally in 2015, the defense needs to replace a few important pieces up front. Fortunately for the Cougars, their secondary remains mostly intact.
If head coach Mike Leach's team survives the opening half of the campaign, a New Year's Six Bowl would become a realistic destination. However, that means going 3-1 against Boise State, Stanford, Oregon and UCLA.
19. USC
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The predominant topic at USC is the quarterback competition. Will 2013 5-star Max Browne finally gain the starting role, or will 2015 4-star Sam Darnold ascend to the No. 1 spot?
Either way, we know JuJu Smith-Schuster will be the primary target. He reeled in 89 passes for 1,454 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. A veteran offensive line and a pair of near-1,000-yard rushers will complement Smith-Schuster.
In all likelihood, the Trojans will have a chance to claim the Pac-12 South Division against UCLA on Nov. 19. Finishing 2-2 or worse against Alabama, Stanford, Oregon and Notre Dame will likely prevent USC from competing for a national title, however.
18. Oregon
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By no means is Oregon's schedule easy. But it sure is favorable.
The Ducks travel to Nebraska, Washington State, USC and Utah, while Virginia, Washington and Stanford head to Eugene, Oregon. If Dakota Prukop is indeed the perfect fit he appears to be, Oregon should finish 6-1 against the toughest teams on the slate.
But the defense—which allowed the country's 13th-most points per game last season—absolutely must improve for the likely successes of Prukop, Royce Freeman and a dangerous receiving corps to matter on a national level.
17. Washington
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Thanks to Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin, Washington may take a significant step forward during the program's 100th season.
Last year, the duo accounted for 4,292 of the offense's 5,240 total yards. Pro Football Focus rated Browning and Gaskin as the nation's top true freshman at quarterback and running back, respectively.
Yes, the Huskies may have a shortage at receiver. But between a secondary jammed with NFL-caliber talent and four returning starters on the offensive line, it's easy to understand why the Huskies are a darling of the offseason.
The trick is translating this summer's excitement to Saturdays—and two Fridays—in the fall.
16. Iowa
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Iowa is a polarizing program. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of believing the Hawkeyes are a Top 10 team or they were overrated (not my word) and set to regress mightily.
C.J. Beathard battled injuries last season yet still guided Iowa to a 12-0 record. Thorpe Award-winning cornerback Desmond King is the headliner of an experienced defense.
But the Hawkeyes also encounter a tougher schedule than in 2015. That's not a slight to what they accomplished last year. As has been said before, if going undefeated during the regular season was so easy, more teams would do it.
Still, in addition to hosting Michigan, Iowa went 5-0 in one-possession games before the postseason last year after going 3-4 in 2014.
Ten wins and one bad loss would is the expected result for the Hawkeyes. Anything more is an excellent season.
15. Georgia
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First-year head coach Kirby Smart has a grace period at Georgia. He should take advantage and hand Jacob Eason the reins.
A 5-star quarterback in the 2016 class, Eason enrolled early to compete with Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey. The competition will be decided at some point in fall camp.
But the Bulldogs won't have a better time to ease in a young quarterback than 2016. Although both Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are recovering from injuries, they compose what is arguably the best backfield tandem in the country.
With Smart helping the defense, the Bulldogs are obvious contenders in the SEC East Division despite transition.
14. Houston
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For a "Group of Five" program to reach the College Football Playoff, it probably needs to navigate the regular season without a loss before winning the conference title.
If Houston knocks off Oklahoma and Louisville en route to the American Athletic Conference crown, the CFB committee will need to have a serious talk.
Head coach Tom Herman's philosophy and Greg Ward Jr.'s skill set are a dynamic and lethal combination. The defense is built to handle all AAC competition. The team knows how to win big games, evidenced by a road victory over Louisville and bowl triumph against Florida State.
The Cougars will likely return to a New Year's Six contest. Which ranking Houston earns, though, is an intriguing unknown.
13. Baylor
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In the aftermath of the sexual assault investigation, Baylor has slowly dipped in preseason polls. Once a popular Top 10 selection, the Bears are falling to the 15-25 range.
Strictly looking at football, though, the team's offense will weather Art Briles' firing if head coach Jim Grobe allows Kendal Briles and Seth Russell to run the show. Russell would've been a Heisman Trophy finalist had a neck injury not ended his season after seven games.
Baylor faces uncertainty on both sides of the trenches—something that can be a recipe for disaster in the point-happy Big 12—but a healthy Russell in the high-efficiency system is a major plus in Waco, Texas.
12. Ole Miss
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Overrated? Underrated? Doesn't matter. September will show us anything we're wondering about Ole Miss.
The Rebels open the year against Florida State in Orlando Florida. After hosting Wofford, they'll welcome Alabama and Georgia to Oxford, Mississippi.
Five offensive linemen and first-round pick Laquon Treadwell are gone, but previous injuries and suspensions created opportunities for youth. That experience will be beneficial during the first month. Granted, Ole Miss will only survive September if dual-threat quarterback Chad Kelly is consistent right away.
The Rebels could be a Top 10 team despite a 2-2 start.
11. Michigan State
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Head coach Mark Dantonio built a roster on 3-star talent. Now that the Spartans are attracting 4-star prospects, can they overcome a group of departures that could derail a team?
Although the list of opponents is difficult, Michigan State owns a massive advantage: Spartan Stadium.
After making the short trip to Notre Dame, Sparty hosts each of Wisconsin, BYU, Northwestern, Michigan and Ohio State. The program is 20-1 in East Lansing, Michigan,, since the beginning of 2013.
Dantonio has earned the benefit of the doubt. The 2016 campaign will demonstrate if we're still underestimating MSU.
10. Stanford
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Though the Pac-12 lacks an obvious No. 1 team, Stanford is the favorite. Plus, the Cardinal certainly aren't missing a No. 1 option.
Christian McCaffrey set the all-time single-season all-purpose yardage record last season, totaling 3,864 with more than 2,000 as a rusher. He also caught 45 passes and accounted for 17 touchdowns.
Stanford will have a new quarterback, a few first-year starters on the offensive line and fresh faces on defense. But doubting a top-tier program praised for its development is unwise.
Nevertheless, the Cardinal's first six games—against Kansas State, USC, UCLA, Washington, Washington State and Notre Dame—will make or break their season.
9. Notre Dame
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Entering fall camp, it seems Notre Dame is either the country's best above-average program or worst great team.
The Irish really don't have a dominant strength. Each position on offense is solid, though not quite spectacular. No defensive unit is excellent, but none are terrible either.
Fortunately for Notre Dame, the schedule sets up perfectly for a legitimate title run. Michigan State, Stanford and Miami travel to South Bend, Indiana, so the biggest road tests are Texas and USC.
Head coach Brian Kelly's team should avoid a bad loss, but can the Irish topple every marquee opponent?
8. Tennessee
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Tennessee has no shortage of talent on defense. Each unit contains a potential first-round pick, including edge-rusher Derek Barnett, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and cornerback Cam Sutton.
But can the offense finally assert itself against top competition? Head coach Butch Jones' squad begins SEC action against Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M and Alabama. While the Vols can't necessarily win the East by Oct. 15, they certainly could lose it.
Joshua Dobbs flashed his skill set in 2014. He limited mistakes last season. For Tennessee to compete for more than a conference title, however, the quarterback needs to command the offense, especially against the best opponents.
7. Ohio State
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The good: Ohio State celebrated 12 NFL draft picks. The bad: Ohio State needs to replace 12 NFL draft picks.
While an unenviable situation, the Buckeyes are prepared for the changes. Only head coach Nick Saban and Alabama (1) have averaged a better recruiting ranking than head coach Urban Meyer (4) since his arrival in Columbus.
Plus, OSU brings back quarterback J.T. Barrett, center Pat Elflein and linebacker Raekwon McMillan. If a team merely has a handful of returning starters, that's an excellent core group.
The Buckeyes could recover from an early-season loss at Oklahoma to contend for a national title. Should they steal a road victory, Big Ten country will be taught a scary lesson.
6. LSU
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The progression of quarterback Brandon Harris may have the biggest impact on LSU in 2016. We know Leonard Fournette will destroy opponents, and we know the defense is loaded with talent.
If the recent trend continues, the Tigers will own an 8-0 or 7-1 record when Alabama enters Death Valley. The next step is LSU overcoming its rival, something that hasn't happened since Nov. 5, 2011—exactly five years from this season's meeting.
Harris, Fournette and coordinator Dave Aranda's defense must put together a perfect game for the Tigers to outlast the Tide. Should that happen, LSU could be headed for the College Football Playoff if it can avoid yet another November collapse.
5. Oklahoma
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Baker Mayfield headlines the roster, but a reliable defense might be what allows Oklahoma to repeat as Big 12 champions.
Last season, the unit finished No. 1 in the Big 12. Whether or not the Sooners stopped the run was the greatest indicator of success. In all 11 wins, they surrendered fewer than 200 yards. During two losses, both opponents eclipsed the 300-yard mark.
Scoring will only rarely be a problem for Mayfield and the Lincoln Riley-coached offense. But whenever OU encounters some trouble, the defense should pick up the slack.
4. Florida State
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Florida State has 11 returning starters on offense and is expected to showcase one of the country's top defenses. Barring an upset to Louisville or Miami, the season hinges on the Clemson result.
The Seminoles will host the meeting this season. Last year, the Tigers clipped FSU 23-13 en route to the ACC championship. The 'Noles edged Clemson 23-17 in overtime two seasons ago and a conference crown. In 2013, Florida State won the matchup and the national title.
Depth is an overwhelming strength for the Seminoles, who need to choose a quarterback during fall camp. Either Sean Maguire or Malik Henry will receive the nod against Ole Miss.
Who starts after Sep. 5, well, that's up to head coach Jimbo Fisher.
3. Michigan
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If the Wolverines find a quarterback, watch out. Because this defense is going to be something nasty.
Ultra-versatile Jabrill Peppers receives much of the attention—and deservedly so—but Jourdan Lewis is as dominant a college cornerback as you'll find. Chris Wormley and Taco Charlton both could approach double-digit sacks.
Michigan should sleepwalk to a 7-0 record before embarking on a season-closing stretch that includes road contests against each of Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State.
In all likelihood, the Wolverines will need a game-winning drive once or twice. Will Wilton Speight or John O'Korn come through?
2. Clemson
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It's almost unfair how much talent and production Clemson returns on offense. Deshaun Watson and Wayne Gallman set program records last year, and the pass-catching corps includes Mike Williams, Artavis Scott and Jordan Leggett, among others.
But the Tigers might need all that firepower to compensate for losing seven NFL draft picks on defense.
Clemson opens the season at Auburn, a road tilt that shouldn't be overlooked. Like Florida State, though, the season depends on Oct. 29—with a nod to Louisville and rival South Carolina.
Head coach Dabo Swinney's team will occupy a comfortable place in the Top Three until someone dethrones the reigning ACC champion.
1. Alabama
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Previous champions retaining their No. 1 ranking until losing doesn't make much sense. A new season is a new season.
But when Alabama ends on top, most votes head the Tide's way—and Saban has repeatedly proved why that's the smart decision. Just once since 2007 has Alabama lost multiple regular-season games.
Maybe 2016 is the year the Crimson Tide fall twice, considering the uncertainty at quarterback. However, few defenses will be more feared than the unit found in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
USC gets the first crack at top-ranked Alabama, while Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU will eagerly await their turn.
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from cfbstats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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