Ranking the Best Bargain-Bin Buys Remaining on 2016's NBA Free-Agent Market
Although NBA free agency is on life support, it isn't dead yet. There are still impact players to sign and mid-summer bargains to poach.
Our list of the best remaining low-cost options should not be confused with a look at the biggest names—period. Current availability does not guarantee a discount. J.R. Smith is still after Kent Bazemore money, according to Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders.
Some of these players are, were or may one day be household contributors. For right now, they aren't in position to reap the benefits of this year's salary-cap explosion like many of their peers.
They are forced to take what's left over—contracts and salaries that, come next season, won't live up to their on-court value.
Honorable Mentions
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Mario Chalmers (Unrestricted)
At his best, Mario Chalmers can defend either guard position, orchestrate a second-unit offense and score off the catch as a starting-five complement. He will find a home.
His Achilles injury, though, is scary. Players are seldom the same, or even close to it, after suffering this kind of setback. (Wesley Matthews might be the exception.) It's hard to call Chalmers a top-flight bargain before knowing what he has left in the tank.
Gerald Green (Unrestricted)
On any given night, Gerald Green is the 2012-13 version of J.R. Smith or the 2015-16 doppelganger of Nick Young. That's definitely worth an inquiry at around or slightly more than the $1.4 million he made last season.
Offering a larger deal is an unnecessary gamble, however. In this oft-predictable period of free agency, Green is, at any price, more bust than boom.
Norris Cole (Unrestricted)
Norris Cole is like the Energizer Bunny—if that bright-pink rabbit stood taller than 6'0", missed lots of threes and took far too many chances on the defensive end while always doing just enough to make you think he's worth the headache.
In other words, some team is going to scoop him up. We just have no way of knowing whether his employer will come to celebrate or regret the move.
7. Tyler Zeller
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Age at Start of 2016-17: 26
Last Played For: Boston Celtics
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 6.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.4 blocks, 47.6 percent shooting
Tyler Zeller almost found himself pulling honorable-mention duty. He can blame Miles Plumlee and his $52 million contract for the near-miss.
There is a bit of "Buy at your own risk" here, no matter the price. Zeller lost playing time during a contract year to Amir Johnson and doesn't set the world on fire as a rim protector or pick-and-roll finisher—a requirement of bigs who aren't stroking threes.
Opponents shot better than 60 percent within six feet of the basket against him last season, and he isn't someone who blocks a ton of shots or can switch onto non-centers. More than one-third of his offensive possessions came as a pick-and-roll runner, and yet he failed to crack the 39th percentile of efficiency.
Still, Zeller has value as a post-up scorer and trailing option in transition. He won't drive down the pace of a frenetic offense, and his individual stat splits are absurd.
Since joining the Boston Celtics in 2014-15, he is averaging 17.7 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.1 assists per 36 minutes while shooting better than 50 percent from the field. Anthony Davis, Al Jefferson, Greg Monroe, Karl-Anthony Towns (one season) and Nikola Vucevic are the only other players to do the same during that time.
The Celtics are open to bringing Zeller back, but they don't intend to hand him a long-term deal, per ESPN.com's Chris Forsberg. Outside suitors now have the chance to poach him without breaking the bank—a rarity when it comes to quality restricted free agents—though interest has not been noticeably high.
6. David Lee
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Age at Start of 2016-17: 33
Last Played For: Dallas Mavericks
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 7.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.5 blocks, 53.1 percent shooting
Get ready to feel old alert: David Lee turned 33 and, suitors willing, is preparing for his 12th NBA season. It seems like only yesterday he was padding his stat totals for a cruddy, pipe-dream-obsessed New York Knicks squad.
Times have since changed—not for the Knicks, but for Lee. He cannot be your No. 1 option on offense. His rim protection has always been suspect on his best days, and he hasn't knocked down long twos at an above-average clip since 2012-13.
But Lee continues to be one of the game's better energy guys on offense. He rebounds, passes and can still score with his back to the basket or as a nimble-footed rim-runner. He shot north of 47 percent on post-ups and better than 63 percent as a pick-and-roll finisher through 25 appearances with the Dallas Mavericks.
Just two players matched Lee's rebounding (18.3) and assist (15.5) percentages in similar playing time (903 minutes): Pau Gasol and Jared Sullinger. Surround him with a few pesky perimeter defenders who limit the number of shots he must contest at the rim, and he'll have enough tools to be a high-end backup center or fill some power forward minutes next to a stretchier 5.
Indeed, Lee isn't a good matchup against any opposing team that deploys a mobile big or two. He has few defensive strengths, and walling off ball-handlers on the bounce isn't one of them. On a deal that (likely) won't reflect the market value for still-dynamic centers, though, Lee is a categorical steal.
5. Lance Stephenson
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Age at Start of 2016-17: 26
Last Played For: Memphis Grizzlies
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 8.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, 48.1 percent shooting
Lance Stephenson is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward gambit.
It says a lot that the Memphis Grizzlies declined his $9 million team option in this summer's market. They needed to make way for the Chandler Parsons coup, but Stephenson's value is actually that low. Recouping a significant portion of $9 million on a multiyear deal, let alone a short-term agreement, will be next to impossible.
"The Stephenson paradox is that he's only effective with the ball in his hands, but [he] wasn't good enough to justify that role for either [the Los Angeles Clippers or Grizzlies] last season," ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton wrote. "So he's still unsigned."
Stephenson at least did enough in Memphis to ensure he won't remain among the unemployed for too long. He averaged 14.2 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists on 47.4 percent shooting through 26 appearances, adequately resembling the contract-year version of himself from 2013-14.
The Grizzlies were still a statistical disaster with him on the floor, but it's tough to place any stock in those on-off splits when his most frequent running mates were Matt Barnes, JaMychal Green and a silhouette of Vince Carter. That he finally looked comfortable in his role matters more.
Memphis gave him touches, and Stephenson delivered. He shot 53.1 percent on drives, and his assist percentage skyrocketed as a primary ball-handler. There isn't a similar fit for him elsewhere—not at 25-plus minutes per game anyway. But he is a cheap flier for interested parties with a second-unit playmaking deficiency.
4. Maurice Harkless
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Age at Start of 2016-17: 23
Last Played For: Portland Trail Blazers
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 6.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.4 blocks, 47.4 percent shooting
Maurice Harkless is only available, and thus among the best free-agent bargains, because, as his agent, Happy Walters, told CSNNW.com's Jason Quick, Harkless and the Portland Trail Blazers are "not any closer" to hammering out a new contract. His client is "in no rush" to make a decision.
Given Harkless' age and the inordinate amount of cash doled out this summer, it might take more than $10 million per year for Portland, or another team, to lock him up. If such a deal isn't available, he could sign his $4 million qualifying offer, play through next season and become an unrestricted free agent in 2017.
As Pelton explained, Harkless is uniquely positioned to take that risk:
"I preferred Harkless to teammate Allen Crabbe as a restricted free agent because I think he has more room to grow as a player if he can become a consistent 3-point threat. Thanks to his defense and activity, Harkless was already a capable starter at age 22 despite shooting 28 percent from 3-point range. If he can even hit 35 percent beyond the arc on a consistent basis, Harkless could become a league-average starting combo forward.
"
There isn't a ton of evidence to support his development as a shooter. He drilled fewer than 28 percent of his spot-up triples last season and has yet to post a league-average clip on attempts between 16 feet and the three-point line.
This uncertainty, though, merely succeeds in driving down his value. It doesn't matter whether he signs a below-market offer sheet or takes pennies on the dollar, via his qualifying offer, to stay in Portland for another year. He can make either scenario look like a bargain in the end.
To wit: During the three-point era, only three players under the age of 23 have ever matched Harkless' 2015-16 effective field-goal (52.2), assist (6.9), steal (1.7), block (1.9) and turnover (11.9) percentages in the same season: Nicolas Batum, Anthony Davis and Kawhi Leonard.
3. Donatas Motiejunas
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Age at Start of 2016-17: 26
Last Played For: Houston Rockets
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 6.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.1 blocks, 43.9 percent shooting
Donatas Motiejunas would be higher on the diamonds-for-dregs scale if not for his back issues. He was limited to just 37 outings during a contract year, and the Detroit Pistons voided their mid-season trade for him when he couldn't pass a physical.
Back injuries at a young age raise serious red flags—especially for big men. Motiejunas has missed 114 of a possible 328 regular-season contests since entering the NBA, and his value as a stretch 5 with half-decent shot-blocking chops has fluctuated as a result. Seven-footers with the ceiling of a basketball unicorn will always have a place in today's league, though.
The Houston Rockets haven't renounced the rights to Motiejunas for a reason. A contract-year implosion has succeeded in curtailing his monetary value; it has not eradicated interest. Multiple teams are vying for his services, according to Fox 26's Mark Berman.
Pretty much all concerns about his durability and last season's lackluster performance are mitigated by his 2014-15 efforts. As the only season Motiejunas cleared 70 appearances, he was one of three players to collect at least 15 points, seven rebounds, two assists and one steal per 36 minutes while shooting better than 35 percent from beyond the arc.
His company: Blake Griffin and Paul Millsap.
One year of favorable health isn't cause for Motiejunas to rent an armored truck. He didn't finish the 2014-15 campaign on active duty, and any team brazen enough to throw a lucrative offer sheet his way would have done so already.
2. Josh Smith
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Age at Start of 2016-17: 30
Last Played For: Houston Rockets
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 6.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.9 blocks, 36.4 percent shooting
Before you vomit (or close out this window), go with me for a second.
Josh Smith's fall from "Is he a max player? Probably not, but at the same time, maybe" territory has been swift and unforgiving. He barely saw the floor for the Clippers or Rockets last season and has laid enough three-point bricks to build an all-mansion community in a top-10 market.
Now he's here, staring down the barrel of August without a job—an afterthought in the eyes of almost everyone. But he can still help the right team.
Any situation that doesn't demand he function as a consistent scorer is perfect. He can still defend either forward spot and, in recent years, has shown he can survive the grind at center. Take last season, the worst of Smith's career: He was still the lone player to log at least 880 minutes of action and post his assist (15.9), steal (1.9) and block (4.3) percentages.
Small-sample bias isn't an issue here. Those numbers are right in line with Smith's career averages. This is the fourth time he cleared those benchmarks—recurring versatility duplicated by just one other player in NBA history: Hakeem Olajuwon.
Combine this with the unsavory perception of his shot selection and the fact he's still getting $5.3 million per year from his old Stretch Provision-ed Pistons contract, and Smith's price tag relative to his potential as a defender and passer is among the best bargains in all of free agency.
1. Ty Lawson
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Age at Start of 2016-17: 28
Last Played For: Indiana Pacers
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 5.7 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.1 blocks, 39.3 percent shooting
Ty Lawson is just over a year removed from producing like a borderline All-Star and still in the prime of his career. However, he has yet to find a new home and will probably need to play for peanuts as a backup or—gasp—third-string reserve at his next gig.
"At this point, I am not going to say they are going to get me for cheap," Lawson told The Undefeated's Marc J. Spears of his free agency. "But they’re going to get me for cheaper than I feel I’m worth...I feel like I’m overlooked in free agency."
Life, quite simply, comes at you fast.
Lawson's two DUI arrests between January and June 2015 are part of that acceleration. The awkward, if contentious, end to his tenure with the Denver Nuggets, along with his suboptimal performances in Houston and Indiana, aren't helping matters.
Even so, Lawson provided glimpses of a career worth salvaging while at his worst. He put down a palatable 35.7 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes, his assist rate jumped to 2013-14 levels upon joining Indiana and defenses were forced to respect his court vision on drives.
One other player posted an assist percentage better than 15 and turnover ratio of at least 7.5 on 300 or more dribble assaults. Some dude named Chris Paul.
Above all else, Lawson's Denver peak wasn't that long ago. He averaged 15.2 points and 9.6 assists per game as the Nuggets' pilot in 2014-15, showcasing a unique blend of high-usage playmaking and ball protection. In fact, he became just the fifth player since he entered the league in 2009-10 to maintain an assist percentage better than 40 and turnover rate below 15.
His statistical siblings? LeBron James, Tony Parker, Paul and Russell Westbrook.
There isn't another dice roll on the market who can yield All-Star returns. Lawson, in that respect, stands alone.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
