Realistic Expectations for OKC Thunder Rookie Domantas Sabonis in 2016-17
A breakout year at Gonzaga launched Domantas Sabonis into the 2016 NBA lottery.
He didn't land with a lottery team, though. The Oklahoma City Thunder, who'd been tracking Sabonis all season, unloaded Serge Ibaka to the Orlando Magic in a deal to acquire Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova and the No. 11 pick, which they'd use on the Lithuanian big man.
"But this is a guy [Sabonis] that our scouts Will Dawkins, Troy Weaver, Brandon Miller, Ryan Lambert, these guys have watched him throughout the year and felt like he would be someone we'd want to add to the program," general manager Sam Presti told the Oklahoman's Anthony Slater.
Sabonis made a significant sophomore jump and made noise in the NCAA tournament, particularly against Utah (19 points, 10 rebounds) when he blatantly outplayed the No. 9 pick Jakob Poeltl.
More of just a dirty-work type of player as a freshman, Sabonis evolved into a tougher post weapon and a threatening shooter. He raised his scoring average to 17.6 points from 9.7 and hit 22-of-45 jump shots (including five threes), per DraftExpress' Matt Kamalsky.
He continued rebounding at an elite rate as well, having pulled in 20.7 percent of available boards, per Sports-Reference.com. Productive and efficient (61.1 percent from the floor) with a visible feel for the game, Sabonis' lack of bounce suddenly became easy to overlook.
He'll miss summer league while preparing for the Olympics, which should ultimately be a more beneficial warm-up before training camp.
Team Fit
One of Sabonis' most appealing qualities will be his ability to fit in, especially if his shooting range continues to develop.
He enters the league with a defined role as a hustle-and-energy big—at least early on in his career, while he polishes up his offensive skill set. Even though he's sharpened his post footwork already, we're still talking about basic moves inside the foul line.
His job: To win the 50-50 balls, put pressure on the interior defense, clean the glass and move the ball. Think David Lee in his prime when trying to envision Sabonis' style and potential. He's both crafty and relentless.
"And I'm excited to watch him continue or to get acclimated with our group because of the way he fits with Steven [Adams] and Enes [Kanter] and our other bigs, quite frankly," Presti told Slater. "But competitiveness, and force, and IQ for the game."
Kanter and Adams look poised for the heaviest workloads up front in 2016-17. Mitch McGary and Dakari Johnson remain relatively unproven, and though Ilyasova gives the lineup much-needed three-point shooting, there is a reason (inconsistency) he's been on four teams since 2014.
With Ibaka and now Kevin Durant gone, there will be available bench minutes. And Sabonis, who's 6'11", 240 pounds with touch and foot speed, should possess the versatility to play stretches at both the 4 and 5 (depending on matchups).
In a supporting role, his soft hands (right and left), nose for the ball, passing and passion will show up, regardless of what position he plays or how much time he sees.
Concerns
The potential problem is that Sabonis checks boxes that are already filled in Oklahoma City. He's relatively similar to McGary, another mobile, high-motor big—neither of whom are realistic options for coach Billy Donovan to run plays for.
Sabonis' signature strength, rebounding, is also something the Thunder already excel at. Ibaka was a below-average rebounder, and the team still led the NBA in rebounding percentage a season ago, per ESPN. And like Kanter, Sabonis is mostly a paint scorer who also struggles in rim protection.
Sabonis (6'10½" wingspan) doesn't replace the length or rim protection of the now-departed Ibaka, and only totaled 43 blocks in 74 career games against a lot of mid-major competition. And given Kanter's defensive limitations, Donovan may have to play Adams over 30 minutes a game, meaning fewer opportunities for Sabonis, whose shooting won't trump Kanter's scoring anytime soon.
Expectations
With news that McGary is suspended the first five games, per ESPN's Royce Young, Sabonis will have a crack at early playing time.
And we'll likely see him get exposed defensively. But there will be spurts when the team's energy is down and the Kanter-Adams pairing isn't producing. Sabonis will be called on to inject the frontcourt with some life. Fans will quickly begin to appreciate his scrappiness and competitiveness.
As the season progresses, we'll likely see more flashes of hook shots and mid-range jumpers, though look for him to split backup scrap minutes with McGary once the latter returns.
Sabonis might not end up producing big numbers, but the activity and effort should be constant from opening night.
Complete Stat Predictions
- Minutes: 15.0
- Points: 6.5
- Rebounds: 5.0
- Assists: 1.0
- Field-goal percentage: .46
- Three-point percentage: .24
- Blocks: 0.3
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