Miami Heat Couldn't Resist Hassan Whiteside's Unknowable Upside
It was a calculated risk for the Miami Heat and an unprecedented twist to Hassan Whiteside's improbable journey.
Less than 24 hours into the 2016 NBA free-agency moratorium period, the league's leading shot-blocker reportedly agreed to become its first player to skyrocket from a minimum salary to a maximum deal in a single offseason.
Whiteside broke the news of his own decision to return to Miami, naturally, on Snapchat:
"I've played on eight teams since college—from Reno to Sioux Falls to Sichuan, China. I am not ready for there to be a ninth," Whiteside wrote for The Players' Tribune. "I have decided to re-sign with Miami."
A source provided Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press with the particulars of the agreement—four years at roughly $98 million, the maximum Miami could offer.
It's a staggering number for a player who's never previously pocketed a $1 million annual salary, yet it's also a foreseeable and reasonable figure. But it does increase the difficulty of what was already a tricky summer for the Heat.
Risky But Necessary Investment
This free-agency market isn't simply flush with TV cash, it's been raining money on bigs since it opened. When Timofey Mozgov nets a $64 million commitment, per The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski, Whiteside's bar is no longer allowed to drop below the max tier.
Besides, Miami practically set his salary as such before departing for summer vacation.
"He's our No. 1 priority, a game-changer," Heat President Pat Riley said of Whiteside in May, per Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. "I don't think he's even reached his ceiling."
Admittedly, there's ample risk in betting this big on the 27-year-old.
Whiteside essentially has a year-and-a-half of prominent big league service under his belt. Last season marked the first time he averaged more than 24 minutes per game and played at least 50 games. His mood and motor both run hot and cold, and his skill set is peppered with holes.
He's neither a good screener nor distributor. His on-ball defense is uninspiring both in the post and on the perimeter. He'll pull himself out of position chasing blocks at one end, then will clog the paint and cut down driving lanes at the other.
But even with those faults, he is, as Riley said, a game-changer.
Whiteside's physical profile is nearly unmatched—7'0", 265 pounds with explosive athleticism and a 7'7" wingspan. Those gifts allow him to be a devastating force charging at the rim on offense and protecting it on defense. Last season, he ranked in the 94th percentile of pick-and-roll screeners on offense and blocked nearly 100 more shots than any other player (269; DeAndre Jordan finished second with 177).
That's where Whiteside's lack of experience becomes a positive.
He's using raw ability to compensate for unpolished skills and underdeveloped instincts, and he's still among the NBA's most productive centers. He's had a player efficiency rating of at least 25 each of the last two seasons, a distinction shared with only seven other players—Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, James Harden, LeBron James, Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook.
"To me, he's on the verge of being the No. 1 big man in the league," Udonis Haslem said at his exit interview.
Whiteside's stock has far too much growth potential for the Heat to let it slip through their grasp. He's an incredibly valuable asset to have, and even if he plateaus as a player, he's a movable piece in this financial climate.
But Miami has plenty more work to do and far fewer funds to ease the process.
Roster-Building on a Budget
With Whiteside back in the mix, the Heat have seven players on the roster for the 2016-17 campaign. Four are no-doubt rotation pieces—Whiteside, Goran Dragic, Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson. If Chris Bosh is healthy enough to contribute, he's clearly in that group as well. Josh McRoberts and Briante Weber might be in the mix, buried on the bench or, in McRoberts' case, perhaps out of Miami.
That's a fairly strong core if Bosh can be a part of it. The Heat are optimistic they'll have the All-Star on the court next season, sources told ESPN.com's Michael Wallace, but his future remains cloudy after having consecutive campaigns cut short by blood clots.
There are also some notable names missing from that group—including postseason starters Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson. With only $20 million left in cap space ($26 million if McRoberts is moved), per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, and a hat in the Kevin Durant sweepstakes, the Heat clearly don't have enough cash to keep everyone happy.
As NBC Sports' Dan Feldman noted, Wade's already uncomfortable negotiations could grow more difficult with so much money going to Whiteside:
"The bigger issue is Dwyane Wade. This leaves just about $19 million for Wade, who's agitating for more. Trading Josh McRoberts might be necessary to satisfy Wade's demands.
And what about Kevin Durant? By the time the Heat meet with their reported top target, they might not have a clear route to clearing cap space for him — unless they dump Wade. But without Wade, why would Durant choose Miami?
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It's hard to envision Wade anywhere outside of Miami, and a reunion still seems the most likely scenario. But outside suitors think there's a good enough chance he'll leave that they're starting to put offers in front of him, per Wojnarowski:
Deng isn't short on suitors, according to Wojnarowski (h/t Jackson), and has probably priced himself out of the Heat's plans. Restricted free agent Tyler Johnson could be another flight risk with perhaps an eight-figure salary awaiting him. Miami could go over the cap to re-sign Johnson, but the market may present a higher offer than it wants to pay.
While Durant seems like the longest of long shots, there's still the chance Riley works his wizardry once more. But if that happens, even more cost-cutting moves are coming. Wade would need to accept another below-market deal, and the Heat would probably still need to trade both McRoberts and Dragic.
That's potentially a lot of subtractions for a team that ended last season in need of several additions—perimeter shooting and reliable reserve bigs at the top of the list. But it's the price to pay for big-game hunting in free agency.
No matter what happens from here, the Heat have already claimed one of this crop's biggest prizes. Whiteside brings a rare blend of production and potential, and Miami will reap the benefits of both. The future looks far brighter with him than without.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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