Predicting Win-Loss Records for Vegas' Top College Football Favorites in 2016
Savvy sports fans know never to question Las Vegas, whose oddsmakers tend to be spot on when it comes to setting lines and championship probabilities. If Vegas considers a college football team a national title contender, there's a good chance that's going to be the case.
But what those Vegas odds don't tell us is how well each team is going to do during the season in terms of wins and losses. That's where we come in.
Using the 13 schools that Odds Shark gives the best championship odds to, we've gone through the 2016 regular season and projected what each team's record will be. Who knows if any of these predictions will be right—we got Florida State, Michigan State, Notre Dame and Oregon spot on a year ago but were way off on some others—but anything is possible at this point.
Alabama Crimson Tide
1 of 13
Vegas odds to win national title: 6-1
The defending national champions have the best odds of any title contender—and understandably so. Alabama isn't rebuilding as much as reloading, thanks to its sixth consecutive No. 1 recruiting class, not to mention the fact it managed to hold on to some key draft-eligible players.
The Crimson Tide were the last team to repeat as champs, doing so in 2011 and 2012, and would have likely played for a third straight title had the Kick Six not happened. The schedule in 2013 wasn't nearly as difficult as is the one they face this fall, however.
Another neutral-site game opens the slate for Alabama, this time against USC in Arlington, Texas, followed by a home opener against dangerous mid-major Western Kentucky. That's followed by the SEC opener at Ole Miss, the Tide's nemesis the past two seasons. It's the kind of matchup that is perfect for a team that doesn't want to risk early complacency but also one that could prove troublesome if question marks such as the quarterback position and the run game haven't been settled yet.
But the Tide's most difficult stretch comes later in the season. From Oct. 8 to Nov. 6, they play just one home game (against Texas A&M) while visiting Arkansas, Tennessee and then LSU. Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh called it "a stretch that would cause nearly any team to stumble and will more than test this team’s mettle."
The final three games might be 'Bama's easiest, even though they include the Iron Bowl matchup with Auburn. All three are at home, and while other playoff contenders could be falling by the wayside, the Tide would have the benefit of building momentum and confidence as they rise up the rankings.
Projected regular-season record: 10-2
Baylor Bears
2 of 13
Vegas odds to win national title: 12-1
Baylor's prognosis for this season is similar to getting an annual checkup with some inconclusive lab results. We know what the Bears have, personnel-wise, but because of the offseason turmoil that resulted in coach Art Briles' termination, there's no telling whether there will be any lingering effect from that chaos.
Interim coach Jim Grobe will attempt to keep everything just like it was, from the schemes to the mindset, though it will help if quarterback Seth Russell can return at full strength after missing the second half of last year with a neck injury. Baylor isn't lacking for weapons on offense, but as we saw in 2015, there are depth issues that haven't been helped by several incoming players opting to go elsewhere.
Thankfully for the Bears, the schedule lends itself to being able to deal with early hiccups without being at risk for an upset. Another weak nonconference slate isn't likely to produce any issues from FCS school Northwestern State, SMU or Rice, and the first three Big 12 games (Oklahoma State, at Iowa State, Kansas) are pretty manageable as well.
It's after Baylor comes out of a two-byes-in-three-weeks span in October that things could get dicey. The three games immediately following this pseudo-hiatus are at Texas, against TCU and at Oklahoma. Those are the three teams Baylor lost to last November and December.
If Baylor's in the hunt for a Big 12 title going into the final week, it will mean having to win at West Virginia to clinch. The Bears lost there in 2014 a week after their epic comeback win over TCU and are winless in Morgantown since the Mountaineers joined the league.
Projected regular-season record: 10-2
Clemson Tigers
3 of 13
Vegas odds to win national title: 9-1
Based on its offense alone, Clemson seems like the safest bet of any 2015 playoff team to make a return trip to the semifinals. The Tigers return dynamic quarterback Deshaun Watson, dependable running back Wayne Gallman and a slew of wide receivers for a nearly intact version of the unit that averaged 38.5 points per game overall and 40.7 in the ACC championship game and playoffs.
But the Tigers have major holes to fill on defense, even more so than in the previous two seasons, which makes it possible they'll have to play shootouts in order to get past some of their toughest opponents.
Those difficult foes are pretty evenly spread throughout the 2016 schedule, starting with the season-opening trip to Auburn. Clemson is clearly the better team, but the venue and early expectations will help level the playing field.
Clemson then gets a few walkover home games in Troy and South Carolina State before a potentially dangerous trip to Georgia Tech, where it lost badly in 2014 after Watson injured his knee. The Tigers will want to tread lightly and avoid overlooking the Yellow Jackets, who were 3-9 last year but managed to knock off Florida State along the way.
Louisville visits Death Valley a week later for the first of two major ACC battles, with the other coming four weeks later when Clemson goes to FSU. Those two games will determine if the Tigers win the Coastal as well as have a chance to represent the league again in the postseason.
Projected regular-season record: 11-1
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Florida State Seminoles
4 of 13
Vegas odds to win national title: 15-1
Florida State is coming off a "down" year, at least in comparison to its recent history. Losing three games and failing to play in the ACC title game, the Seminoles battled youth on offense all year yet still managed to make a major bowl game.
Now the 'Noles are ready to return to the top tier, first taking back their spot atop the conference and going from there. But that's easier said than done, since FSU still has to make sure its offense is put together right, though now it's an issue of health instead of youth. Presumptive starting quarterback Sean Maguire and standout rusher Dalvin Cook are both coming off surgery.
Any healing and adjustment from their spring absences will have to be complete before the season starts, though, since FSU has a major test to start things off. The Labor Day clash against Ole Miss in Orlando won't exactly be a playoff elimination game, but the loser of that one won't have the luxury of being able to withstand a setback later like its victor will.
"Loaded rosters? Unopposed national television at the end of a holiday weekend? National title hopes? The Camping World Kickoff has it all," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote.
That's only the start of a demanding first month of the season, with FSU set to visit Louisville in its ACC opener and then travel to dangerous rising mid-major South Florida a week later. The challenges continue in early October with defending Coastal Division champion North Carolina coming to Tallahassee, followed by a trip to Miami.
But the 'Noles' season should again come down to the annual tilt with Clemson, this time at home in late October. If they win that, barring any craziness in the final month, they could be heading back to the ACC final and possibly beyond.
Projected regular-season record: 10-2
LSU Tigers
5 of 13
Vegas odds to win national title: 12-1
The last few years, LSU football has settled into an odd sort of life cycle. The offseason and early part of the season are filled with hope, promise and high expectations, regardless of how the previous year ended, but once adversity comes along, the mood quickly turns negative.
Coach Les Miles looked on his way out last November, only to get a last-second reprieve, and now the Tigers are back among the national title contenders. Granted, they've got a stacked roster that for the first time in a while wasn't ravaged by NFL draft early entry, so maybe this is the year the Tigers live up to expectations?
The first indication of whether that will be comes early, as LSU puts its impressive 52-game regular-season nonconference winning streak on the line against Wisconsin in Green Bay. It's not the only challenge, though, as the Tigers play at Auburn and Florida in a three-week span, and then host Ole Miss and Alabama in consecutive games (with a bye in between).
If LSU still remains in the SEC West hunt after all that, there are still more obstacles to overcome. The final three games include road tilts at Arkansas and Texas A&M, and the former has beaten the Tigers in two straight meetings.
Projected regular-season record: 10-2
Michigan Wolverines
6 of 13
Vegas odds to win national title: 14-1
Michigan is coming off a surprisingly strong first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Since winning 10 games in his debut, Harbaugh hasn't let up. He's slept over at recruits' homes, traversed the globe to hold satellite camps and given us his list of favorite Drake songs. To the untrained eye, though, it might feel like he's had no time to actually work on improving the Wolverines.
Whether that's the case or not, Michigan has the benefit of being able to tweak and tinker with the formula during the early part of its 2016 schedule. While most other playoff contenders will be challenging themselves with marquee nonconference opponents, many on the road or at neutral sites, the Wolverines host the unimposing trio of Hawaii, UCF and Colorado.
They actually won't leave Ann Arbor for a game until going to Rutgers on Oct. 8, though prior to that, they'll host Penn State and Wisconsin to start Big Ten play. The real notable tests don't come until the second half of the slate, with all three league road games in the final five weeks coming against top competition.
Michigan plays at Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State between Oct. 29 and Nov. 28. It's possible to be 7-0 heading into that gauntlet and have three losses when coming out the other side.
Projected regular-season record: 10-2
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
7 of 13
Vegas odds to win national title: 16-1
Thanks to the value of a conference championship game toward playoff contention, it's fair to say that Notre Dame is in direct competition with the Big 12's top teams for a semifinal bid. Fittingly, the Fighting Irish have a schedule that's a little stronger than Baylor's but not as challenging as that of Oklahoma.
The opener at Texas and a visit from Michigan State two weeks later will set the tone for Notre Dame's playoff hopes, either putting it behind the curve and in need of others to falter or giving the Irish an early edge on most of the field. Either way, the middle of the slate doesn't offer many opportunities to rise or fall outside of Stanford's biannual visit to South Bend in mid-October.
The stretch run begins and ends with the most significant resume-builders or busters. Miami, albeit at home, is Notre Dame's best foe from the ACC ranks, while the Thanksgiving weekend trek to USC will be its last chance to make an impression.
A loss anywhere else on the schedule, regardless of when or where, would have the effect of essentially eliminating Notre Dame from the playoff hunt.
Projected regular-season record: 11-1
Ohio State Buckeyes
8 of 13
Vegas odds to win national title: 12-1
A list of the best nonconference games of 2016 is going to be overloaded with Week 1 matchups, a slate that ranks among the best in college football history. Yet Ohio State's Week 3 game at Oklahoma might be the most important non-league title of the year in terms of playoff positioning.
If the Buckeyes were to pull out a victory in a place such as Norman, that would give them the equivalent of a "Get Out of Jail Free" card for a loss later down the line. Oregon's early win over Michigan State in 2014 helped offset the surprising loss to Arizona a few weeks later. Last year, MSU was essentially forgiven for its slip-up at Nebraska because it had store credit left over from the Oregon victory earlier in the year.
Not all losses would be discounted, though, since finishing second in the Big Ten's East Division (and the Buckeyes did in 2015) likely means finishing outside the top four even with an 11-1 record.
Lose to Oklahoma, though, and Ohio State will probably have to run the table to assure itself of a playoff spot. That's easier said than done, though, since it has to go to Wisconsin and Penn State on consecutive October Saturdays and must play at Michigan State the week before hosting Ohio State in the regular-season finale.
Projected regular-season record: 10-2
Oklahoma Sooners
9 of 13
Vegas odds to win national title: 8-1
We only have two years of data to go off, but Oklahoma showed in 2015 the same thing that Ohio State did the season before: A team can overcome a loss in the first half of the schedule if the performance in the second half is vastly superior to the field.
The Sooners were flat and listless in falling to rival Texas in mid-October, yet because they won their remaining seven regular-season games by an average of 33.4 points (which included a Big 12 minefield in November), they were as hot as any team in the country when the playoff field was set. It's possible for them to do the same this year, though the potential for an early loss is much greater this time round, and encountering multiple early setbacks is quite possible.
Oklahoma has one of the toughest first halves of the season in the country, opening against Houston and then hosting Ohio State two weeks later. Following a bye, the Big 12 slate starts with a doozy of a pair: at TCU and then the Red River Shootout.
A soft middle tier of opponents—Kansas State, Kansas and Iowa State are part of a four-game stretch—is followed by a final trio of foes that will look great on paper if Oklahoma can beat them all. The Sooners finish against Baylor, at West Virginia and then host the Bedlam game against Oklahoma State.
Projected regular-season record: 10-2
Ole Miss Rebels
10 of 13
Vegas odds to win national title: 25-1
Among the teams considered to be the top contenders, only Notre Dame and Ohio State have fewer returning offensive starters than Ole Miss. It's a testament to the work Hugh Freeze has done building up this program that the Rebels can be mentioned in the same sentence as those longstanding powers and that they're not projected to regress after losing the majority of a 10-win team.
It also helps that Ole Miss' schedule ensures it will be a factor in the playoff race, since so many of its opponents are also part of that competition.
From the Labor Day opener against Florida State in Orlando to the SEC West clashes with Alabama and LSU (as well as the rest of their league slate), the Rebels won't be lacking in the strength-of-schedule category. All that's left for them to do is win enough of those games to have a shot at a playoff bid, though the first step will be winning the division.
Much figures to be decided before October, since Alabama and Georgia come to Oxford in consecutive weeks, and after that pair of games, Ole Miss could be the leader of the league pack or already suspending its campaign. The back-to-back October road games against Arkansas and LSU could have the same effect.
Projected regular-season record: 9-3
Stanford Cardinal
11 of 13
Vegas odds to win national title: 25-1
As long as Stanford has a singular talent such as Christian McCaffrey, the FBS record holder for all-purpose yards, it's going to be in play for a Pac-12 title and thus a shot at the playoffs. But just as was the case last year for the Cardinal, winning the league isn't enough if it comes with too many blemishes.
Every Pac-12 team lost at least one game in conference play in 2015, but Stanford's early loss at Northwestern combined to make its resume too flawed a year ago. The Cardinal's schedule this fall includes an easier opener in Kansas State but not by much. That's followed by arguably the most rigorous start to a league slate of any team in FBS.
Stanford's first four Pac-12 games are against USC, at UCLA, at Washington and versus Washington State. That quartet averaged 8.5 wins a year ago, and all could be better this season.
As if that weren't enough, right after that comes a game at Notre Dame and two weeks later at Arizona. Two weeks after that is a visit to Oregon, continuing the season-long trend of Stanford having almost all of its toughest matchups coming on the road.
Projected regular-season record: 8-4
Tennessee Volunteers
12 of 13
Vegas odds to win national title: 15-1
It might feel like Tennessee has been hyped as a title contender for the last few years, but 2016 is when the push really starts for this rising program. With another strong finish to a season—the team won its final six games—and almost all of their top players coming back, the Volunteers are a legit contender for the first time in more than a decade.
But like last year and the one before that, a lot will depend on how Tennessee handles a front-loaded schedule, particularly a make-or-break four-week stretch from late September through early October.
Following a better-than-it-looks early docket of Appalachian State, Virginia Tech (at a NASCAR track) and Ohio, the Vols dive into SEC play by hosting a Florida team they haven't beaten since 2004. That's followed by a trip to Georgia, where they haven't come out victorious since 2006, and then a visit to Texas A&M. After that, Alabama comes to town riding a nine-game winning streak in the series.
It's pretty much smooth sailing over the final month-plus of the season, though. The remaining five foes (at South Carolina, Tennessee Tech, Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt) were a combined 21-38 last season.
Projected regular-season record: 10-2
USC Trojans
13 of 13
Vegas odds to win national title: 25-1
Much like Duke basketball is going to get national title consideration every year, no matter what its circumstances, the same appears to be the case with USC football. The Trojans lost six games a year ago, including their final two, but also won the Pac-12's South Division and managed to survive a distracting midseason coaching change.
The Trojans haven't lost three in a row since 2012, but they're staring such a skid in the face thanks to opening in Arlington, against defending national champion USC. That's the most difficult game of the first month but not the only tough one, because USC opens Pac-12 play two weeks later with back-to-back games at Stanford and Utah.
November is shaping up to be almost as difficult, as it includes three tough league foes (Oregon, at Washington, at UCLA) and then a challenging nonconference clash with visiting Notre Dame.
Projected regular-season record: 8-4
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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