Sorry, but We're Going Here: NBA Free-Agency Questions Nobody Wants to Ask
The news leaks, up-to-the-second reporting, bidding wars and player meetings of NBA free agency breed chaos.
Where's Kevin Durant going?
That guy is getting a max deal?
Do the Los Angeles Lakers think they can sign the entire USA Olympic Basketball roster?
It's fun stuff, but it's also stressful—especially when questions nobody wants to ask arise.
We'll get all the answers we need during the first few days of July, but until then, we've got a few thorny free-agent queries to consider.
Is That What 'The Process' Was For?
You don't tank multiple seasons in a row, refuse to sign free agents of consequence and generally strip your franchise down to the studs unless you're anticipating a major payoff. And while Sam Hinkie won't be around to see the results of his Process (always and forever with a capital P), you'd have to think he envisioned more than a max contract for Harrison Barnes.
In truth, the Philadelphia 76ers do have more than that hypothetical signing. They have Joel Embiid looking like he's finally ready to take the floor in a game that counts. They have an embarrassment of cap space, future picks and flexibility. They have Ben Simmons.
But they'll also push hard to get Barnes, according to Marc Stein and Marc J. Spears of ESPN.com.
While there's no guarantee the Golden State Warriors forward will command max money, it sure seems like that's what it will take to get him interested in leaving a 73-win team for one with 47 victories over the last three years combined. Per The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski, we also know Barnes turned down a four-year, $64 million offer from the Warriors last offseason...
Barnes, in theory, is an intriguing talent. He's 24, he's hit 37.6 percent of his career three-point attempts and he's proved his chops as a small-ball power forward on big postseason stages. In the era of the rising cap, you could talk yourself into maxing out a player like him.
In practice, though, he's mechanical, shrank in last year's Finals and has not meaningfully improved since his rookie season.
There's athleticism in that solid 6'8" frame, but it's as if Barnes can't figure out how to properly channel it for basketball purposes. His movements feel predetermined, negating his speed. And his strength doesn't help him finish through contact.
He moves like a video game version of himself, controlled by a user who hasn't figured out the buttons yet.
And not to pile on, but when Brandon Rush steps in for you as an injury replacement in the starting lineup and your team goes 14-2, it's a good sign your contributions are replaceable.
The Warriors may still feel compelled to match a max offer for Barnes if they can't secure Kevin Durant, but it's also possible they'll come to their senses and seek cheaper alternatives who'll provide similar fifth-option offense.
The 76ers might have to overpay to attract new talent, but it's difficult to believe they envisioned maxing out a 24-year-old rotation afterthought as Phase 1 of their start-caring-about-winning era.
Could the Knicks Actually Be Good?
Gambling on Derrick Rose's return to MVP form has been a losing bet for years, but he might have something left.
After last season's All-Star break, Rose was no superstar, but he was pretty darn good. He upped his scoring volume and efficiency while playing fewer minutes per game. Maybe it just took him a couple of months to shake off the rust because, perhaps you've heard, he's missed a little time in recent years.
| Before | 15.9 | 40.8 | 25.5 |
| After | 17.4 | 46.8 | 37.5 |
If we assume Rose's athleticism and shooting stroke will continue to improve the further he gets from his various surgeries, maybe those post-break stats will turn out to be a floor (and not a ceiling) going forward.
Suppose Rose averages 19 points per game with solid efficiency. Suppose he attacks the basket more often as he gains confidence in his body. Suppose the fear he inspires in defenders reaches something like 80 percent of whatever it was when he was truly terrifying.
If any of that happens, and if Carmelo Anthony turns in a healthy season, the Knicks might have something.
If Kristaps Porzingis is ready to spend more time at center, the loss of Robin Lopez might not hurt as badly. And with plenty of cap space with which to chase their typically bold free-agent targets, we might still see another star-quality player added to the roster.
Because these are the Knicks, we should expect that player to come with some risk. But come on, you can't pretend the idea of adding Joakim Noah to this group—even if it might cost $18 million per season, according to Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post—doesn't get you at least a little bit excited.
Is there disaster potential here? You better believe it.
Having their 2017 first-round pick mitigates some of that risk, though. If things go sideways, the Knicks can at least stink with the certainty they'll be doing it for a good return in the draft. It's been a while since that was the case.
But there's also a slim chance this actually works—and by "works," we should be clear, we're talking about a top-end projection of 50 wins and a playoff berth.
It's been so long since we hoped for anything good from the Knicks. Let's just try it this once and see how it feels.
Is Keeping Mike Conley a Massive Mistake in Memphis?
This one hurts to ask.
Mike Conley is everything a team could want in a point guard. He's a reliable, hard-working defender who runs the offense, finishes in the lane, hits his open threes and makes few mistakes. Especially considering his unique importance in the Memphis Grizzlies' makeup—he's the epitome of the egoless grinder and the franchise's all-time leader in games played—giving him a five-year max deal seems like a complete no-brainer.
Grizzlies head coach David Fizdale knows what he has in Conley:
Toss in the wasteland that is the non-Conley free-agent point guard market, and the importance of retaining him only grows.
Back in April, Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace didn't mince words, per Chris Vernon of 92.9 FM ESPN in Memphis:
Yet, this isn't nearly as simple as it appears.
Per Rob Mahoney of Sports Illustrated:
"A five–year max offer from the Grizzlies would be worth $153 million overall and $34.6 million in its final year. That’s far more than a 33–year–old Conley could likely pull; smaller guards tend not to age well, and Conley’s rash of injuries over the past several seasons doesn’t suggest he’ll defy the precedent.
"
The Grizzlies have always done things their way. They've adhered to a slow-down, oversized, defense-first, three-pointer-averse style far longer than most. That faith in their identity (call it stubbornness if you like) may be a factor here.
It's a comfortable way to go, and preserving the status quo makes sense when you're a franchise that has never attracted high-profile free agents. If you're Memphis, and you've got a core you think can win 55 games a year for another couple of seasons, you're probably happy with that.
But if Conley and Marc Gasol are your high-cost cornerstones—especially as they head into their 30s—55 wins is the absolute most you can hope for. Inking Conley to an enormous contract effectively resigns the Grizzlies to sub-contention for the next half-decade.
Maybe that's the best they can realistically hope for. And maybe Memphis will find the athletes and shooters it needs on the cheap. Maybe it'll get lucky and something special will happen.
But it feels more likely that a max for Conley could erase the Grizzlies' chances of making any serious playoff noise for a while.
