Big Ten Football: Predicting Conference's Top 2016 Stat Leaders
The college football season is almost two months away and anticipation for the upcoming campaign is only building as the offseason hits its homestretch.
That rings especially true in the Big Ten, which will return no shortage of stars to the field in the 2016 season.
But with turnover being a constant in each college football season, the conference's statistical leaderboard could find itself looking very different at this season's end than it did a year prior. Already, the league knows it will crown a new rushing king in 2016, as well as new leaders in passing yards, touchdowns, receiving (catches, yards and touchdowns), tackles and sacks based on departures from 2015.
Suffice to say, even with all the returning talent in the Big Ten, some new names in the league will find themselves at the forefront in the coming year. With that in mind, let's take a stab at predicting who will wind up the leader in each major individual statistical category in 2016.
Passing Yards: J.T. Barrett
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Nobody in the Big Ten skewed the leaderboards more in 2015 than J.T. Barrett, whose inconsistent playing time but high production caused uneven stat lines that saw him finish 15th in the league in passing yards per game (90.2) while ranking third in rushing touchdowns (11).
But with Cardale Jones now in the NFL, there's no longer any questions about who will be behind center in Columbus in 2016. What's more is Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer has insisted his team will be throwing the ball more in the coming year, which could mean big passing numbers for his junior signal-caller.
"We're going to adapt our offense here a little bit in the offseason. I want to make some adjustments. I want more of a balance, like we were in 2014," Meyer said following a Fiesta Bowl where Barrett threw for 211 yards. "We need to throw the ball. J.T. threw it 31 times. That's more what I'm looking for."
With a similar approach, Barrett ranked second in the Big Ten in passing yards per game (236.2) as a redshirt freshman in 2014. With even modest improvement from its quarterback, a more pass-heavy Buckeyes attack should make Barrett the quarterback to beat in most of the conference's passing categories.
Passing Touchdowns: Mitch Leidner
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While Barrett may find himself the Big Ten's most productive passer, his dual-threat nature may cause his legs to vulture would-be passing touchdowns from his own arm.
That could leave a void for the conference's passing touchdowns leader. Who better to fill it than Minnesota's Mitch Leidner, who is already gaining buzz as a potential first-round pick in the 2017 NFL draft?
"Leidner shows some upside as a passer, but I'll be looking to see if he can improve his accuracy (59.5 completion rate and 14-11 TD-INT ratio in 2015)," ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay wrote of Leidner in his way-too-early mock draft, where he slotted the Golden Gophers signal-caller as the draft's 25th pick. "He's a late riser to keep an eye on, similar to Blake Bortles and Carson Wentz."
Having ranked eighth in the conference in passing touchdowns a years ago, Leidner may need to double his total to have a legitimate shot at competing with the likes of Nebraska's Tommy Armstrong Jr. and Iowa's C.J. Beathard for the league's passing touchdown crown. But of the quarterbacks in the Big Ten, Leidner possesses the highest upside, which could ultimately be reflected in the stat line of his senior season.
Rushing Yards: Devine Redding
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A year ago, Indiana's Devine Redding ranked fifth in the Big Ten in rushing with 1,012 yards on the ground.
Perhaps what's most impressive is that he did so while primarily serving as Jordan Howard's backup.
With Howard now in the NFL, the Hoosiers running back finds himself the conference's third-leading returning rusher, trailing just Northwestern's Justin Jackson and Penn State's Saquon Barkley. Now serving as his team's primary back, Redding should only see an increase in production behind what is one of the Big Ten's top returning offensive lines.
Last year, Redding was just one of five Big Ten backs to total at least 1,000 yards on the year. No longer splitting carries with one of the other four, the 5'10", 195-pound back's numbers should only increase in what could very well be a breakout season for one of the conference's most underrated backs.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Rushing Touchdowns: J.T. Barrett
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Despite his limited playing time, Barrett still managed to rank third in the Big Ten in rushing touchdowns with 11 in 2015.
Now serving as Ohio State's undisputed starting quarterback, it's hard to imagine that number doing anything but increasing in the coming year. That should ring especially true considering last year's leading scorer, Ezekiel Elliott (23 touchdowns), is no longer a member of the Buckeyes backfield, which should only create additional situations for Barrett to punch the ball in.
So long as Barrett's behind center, Ohio State should remain one of the Big Ten's—if not, the nation's—top offenses. And with the Buckeyes likely leaning on a running back by committee to replace Elliott, their star quarterback will remain the only constant in the team's backfield throughout the year.
Meyer may want to pass the ball more, but once Ohio State finds itself in the red zone, all bets are off. Throughout his career, Barrett has proven a viable threat with his feet from distances both long and short, and with an increase in opportunities that could very well land him in the end zone more times than anybody else in the Big Ten in the coming year.
Receptions, Receiving Yards: Chris Godwin
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The Big Ten's leading returning receiver, Penn State's Chris Godwin, tallied 69 receptions for 1,101 yards in his sophomore season in 2015.
And while the loss of quarterback Christian Hackenberg could theoretically hurt his production, an overall improvement in the Nittany Lions offense should only result in a statistical increase for one of the conference's top receivers.
Because while neither Trace McSorley nor Tommy Stevens may be as talented as Hackenberg, a second-round pick of the New York Jets, an offensive line that can keep its quarterback standing upright should lead to more pass attempts and, thus, more balls for Godwin to catch. A two-headed monster at running back in Barkley and Miles Sanders should also alleviate pressure from the Penn State passing game, which ranked just ninth in the Big Ten in 2015 despite Godwin's impressive numbers.
But even if the rest of the Nittany Lions offense catches up, Godwin should manage to remain one of its top contributors. And if Penn State finds itself playing from behind more times than not, that should only create additional opportunities for the junior wideout to pad his stats in the passing game.
Receiving Touchdowns: Marcus Baugh
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After catching just two balls for a total of 32 yards in 2015, it'd be hard to say that Ohio State Marcus Baugh has made much of an impact in his college career.
But that shouldn't be the case for long.
It may have just been a spring game, but Barrett has already shown an impressive chemistry with his new starting tight end, who should serve as one of the Buckeyes' top receiving options in 2016. Playing alongside Ohio State's starting QB, the 6'5", 255-pounder caught seven balls for 64 yards in the Buckeyes exhibition in what may have been a preview of production to come in his college career.
"The sky's the limit," Ohio State offensive coordinator Ed Warinner said of Baugh this past spring. "We're going to push him to the next level in terms of his blocking and pass-catching."
With no proven alternatives in Ohio State's wide receiving corps, Baugh could find himself as Barrett's top target this season, particularly in the red zone. The Buckeyes offense should be potent enough to produce scoring opportunities for a plethora of players, including its relatively unknown junior tight end.
Tackles: Anthony Walker
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One of the best to have played his position in Big Ten history, Pat Fitzgerald knows a thing or two when it comes to evaluating linebackers.
And when it comes to the conference's current crop of players, the Northwestern head coach sees something special in Anthony Walker, who currently plays the same role he once did in the middle of the Wildcats defense.
"I'm not afraid to make statements, and I think he has a chance to be the best we've ever had," Fitzgerald said of the 2015 All-American, per NUSports.com. "And we've had some pretty good ones."
Fitzgerald should know, and last year he witnessed Walker tally 120 tackles, the second-most of any player returning to the Big Ten in 2016. With another year of improvement, the 6'1", 235-pounder should only continue to pad his stats—and in the process perhaps he'll officially surpass his head coach when it comes to the pecking order of Northwestern greats.
Sacks: Dawuane Smoot
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One of the Big Ten's three returning sack leaders from a year ago, Illinois defensive end Dawuane Smoot's impressive 2015 campaign managed to fly under the radar for many.
But with former teammate Jihad Ward now in the NFL, that should no longer be the case, as Smoot will serve as the primary defensive playmaker on what could be one of the better defenses in all the Big Ten.
After all, if Smoot was capable of compiling eight sacks as a junior, just imagine what he'll do in 2016 with Lovie Smith now in charge of the Fighting Illini. Throughout his time as a head coach in the NFL, Smith oversaw the development of some of the league's top pass-rushers and in Smoot he finds himself with the perfect player to take under his wing.
Of course, without Ward on the opposite side of the Illinois line, Smoot should soon find himself garnering extra attention from opposing offensive lines. But with his talent and newfound pro-style coaching, the 6'3", 230-pounder should remain a constant presence in opposing backfields.
Tackles for Loss: Jabrill Peppers
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A year ago, Jabrill Peppers totaled 5.5 tackles for a loss, an impressive number for a player who primarily lined up at safety throughout the 2015 campaign.
But in his new role as an outside linebacker in Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown's scheme, Peppers will only find himself closer to the line of scrimmage and with more opportunities to put his playmaking ability to use in opposing backfields.
"He's playing at a high level there, so I'm happy with him," Brown said of Peppers this past spring. "He's picked up the linebacker pieces of it pretty well. The last three guys are in the NFL that I've coached that have played that position. You expect a lot at that spot, so we're going to get what we expect."
For comparison's sake, the last player to play Peppers' new spot in Brown's defense, Boston College outside linebacker Matt Milano, tallied 17.5 tackles for loss in 2015. A 5-star talent, Peppers possesses an even higher ceiling, which could lead to eye-popping numbers for the Wolverines sophomore—regardless of where he lines up.
Interceptions: Jourdan Lewis
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There may not be a more stacked position in the Big Ten than cornerback, with two players at the position having earned All-American honors in 2015.
And while Iowa's Desmond King led the league in interceptions with eight a year ago, this season could be Jourdan Lewis' time to shine.
After all, logic would dictate a player with Lewis' talent should record more picks in the coming year after the Michigan cornerback broke up 20 passes, but had just two interceptions, in his junior season. Like King, Lewis passed on the opportunity to enter the 2016 NFL draft, but already he's being viewed as one of the top prospects for 2017.
"If he had come out [in 2016], he'd have certainly been one of the top corners," ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said of Lewis on a conference call this spring. "Next year's draft, if you look at the top five right now and you look at a corner you'd have to put him in there."
Of course, how he performs in his senior campaign will go a long way toward determining just where Lewis winds up next spring. And if the Wolverines corner is going to indeed prove he is one of the top corners in the nation, surpassing King's interception total in his own conference would go a long way.
Return Yards: William Likely
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Quite frankly, there may not be an easier individual statistical category in the Big Ten to predict.
Despite playing in just 11 games last season, Maryland's William Likely led not just the Big Ten but the entire country in combined return yards with 1,197. Throughout his career, the 5'7", 175-pounder has been one of college football's top returners and 2016 should be no different.
"It means a lot. Just knowing all of the work you put in, with the experience, and you're just able to showcase what you learn," Likely said, per Roman Stubbs of the Washington Post.
A two-time first-team All-Big Ten selection, Likely isn't too shabby on defense either in his role as one of the top cornerbacks in the conference. But special teams is where he'll make his money, as there's always a spot in the NFL for a player capable of explosive plays as consistently as Likely is.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. Recruiting class rankings courtesy of 247Sports' composite.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
