Big Ten Football Q&A: Who Will Be the B1G's Breakout Quarterback in 2016?
We're nearly two months away from the start of the college football season and for perhaps the first time this offseason, Ohio State has stolen the spotlight from Michigan.
At least that's the case for those of us no longer wowed by Jim Harbaugh's wardrobe choices—as a jersey aficionado, I personally don't include myself in that category—and who are more impressed with Ohio State's landing of the nation's top-ranked dual-threat quarterback in the 2017 class (more on him later).
But regardless of where you allegiances lie, we can all agree that the actual college football season can't get here soon enough. With that in mind, let's get to this week's Big Ten Q&A, where we'll tackle the conference's breakout signal-caller, the Buckeyes' impending quarterback conundrum, Nebraska's recent Big Ten run and a star Michigan player's Heisman odds.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
As always, you can send me your questions each week on Twitter @BenAxelrod.
Let's get started.
In a year where the Big Ten has an odd mix of proven, unknown and somewhere-in-between quarterbacks, I'd argue only three signal-callers in the conference are disqualified from this discussion: Ohio State's J.T. Barrett, Iowa's C.J. Beathard and Minnesota's Mitch Leidner.
The rest are either entering their first seasons as starters, still fighting it out in quarterback battles or have enough room for improvement that a big 2016 would qualify for a breakout year.
And while I do think the reader's pick here, Illinois' Wes Lunt, is a viable candidate who should show plenty of growth under the direction of head coach Lovie Smith, I'm going across town for my own selection with Northwestern's Clayton Thorson.
In his first season as a starter in Evanston, Thorson enjoyed a mixed bag of results. On the one hand, the 6'4", 220-pounder led the Wildcats to a surprise 10-2 regular-season record, despite only being a redshirt freshman. On the other, Northwestern ranked last in the league in passing yards, as well as total offense, with Thorson throwing for just 117.1 yards per game.
But despite his shortcomings in his debut season, I'd expect for the Wheaton, Illinois, product to take a step forward in his development as a passer in his sophomore season. Already, Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald has praised the accelerated progress of his starting signal-caller entering the 2016 campaign, both physically and mentally.
"You can tell, even though he's a redshirt freshman, he's a wily veteran going through 13 battles of highs and lows, and good play and bad play, and wins and losses," Fitzgerald said, per Inside NU. "It's exciting, but he knows he's got a lot of things to improve in his game and I know they're working on it."
Add in that Thorson has arguably the best running back and one of the top defenses in the Big Ten to lean on, and it'd be a surprise to see him endure a sophomore slump. Other potential breakout QBs include Michigan State's Tyler O'Connor, Michigan's John O'Korn and, yes, perhaps even Lunt, but for now, Thorson's the pick to take his game to the next level in 2016.
"@BenAxelrod how does Ohio State keep getting these top QB recruits every year? At some point these guys must realize they won't play
— Danny Justik (@Danny_Justik) June 15, 2016"
The short answer: Urban Meyer.
The long one: Urban Meyer can really, really, really recruit.
In case you missed it, the Buckeyes bolstered what was already the nation's top-ranked 2017 class on Sunday when Tate Martell, the country's No. 1 overall dual-threat signal-caller, committed to spend his college career in Columbus. Assuming Martell's commitment sticks, that could leave Ohio State with a QB depth chart that consists of Barrett, Joe Burrow, Stephen Collier, Dwayne Haskins, Martell and fellow 2017 commit Danny Clark.
Of course, a lot can change between now and then, including Barrett turning pro and/or Clark decommitting. But what's perhaps most scary is we've seen Meyer stockpile this type of talent at quarterback before, even if a clear line of succession never came to fruition.
After all, this is the same head coach who once recruited Tim Tebow, Cam Newton and 5-star signal-caller John Brantley in consecutive classes during his time at Florida. Despite only one quarterback being able to play at a time, the reality remains that Meyer is going to try to add one in each class, and with his recruiting prowess, more times than not, it's going to be a highly touted player.
Plus, if there's one head coach in the country who realizes the value of having as many talented quarterbacks on a roster as possible, it's the one who's just over a year removed from having won a national title with his third-string signal-caller.
Transfers may happen, players may depart early and circumstances can switch on the drop of a dime. But one thing that won't change is the star power behind center in Columbus, so long as Meyer's around to recruit it.
"@BenAxelrod @BenAxelrod why hasn't Nebraska had much success in the Big 10 but Texas A&M had so much success in the SEC?
— Matt Hafer (@matthafertweets) June 15, 2016"
First of all, I'm not sure I necessarily agree with this premise. While Johnny Manziel did provide some excitement in 2012 and 2013, Texas A&M is 36-16 in the past four seasons—a solid mark, albeit one that doesn't necessarily scream outright success.
Conversely, Nebraska's 43-23 mark in the past five years is comparable, although last year's 6-7 debut season under head coach Mike Riley did include some cause for concern.
But as I wrote earlier this week, the Cornhuskers possess plenty of promise entering 2016. For a variety of factors—including returning starters, a likely reversal of bad luck and a manageable but impressive schedule—Nebraska could very well be the Big Ten's sleeper team in the coming season, a bit like rival Iowa was a year ago.
As far as obtaining long-term success is concerned, the Huskers still have work to do. While glimpses of Big Ten contention have been seen here and there, none of it has been sustainable, whether it's been Bo Pelini or Riley on the sideline.
What's most promising for Nebraska is that Riley has recruited well since arriving in Lincoln a year ago, landing a top-25 class in 2016, with another on its way next February. But what would help the Cornhuskers the most would be a breakout year on the field, and it might only be a matter of a few months until one arrives.
I feel like I've answered questions and written stories about Jabrill Peppers on multiple occasions throughout this offseason, but he remains one of the most fascinating players in all the Big Ten. How often does one of the most—if not the most—talented players in a conference undergo a position change on a team expected to compete for a national title in the coming year?
(Although now that I think about it, I guess the same could have been said for Braxton Miller at Ohio State a year ago.)
Nevertheless, Peppers' position switch from safety to outside linebacker should increase his Heisman odds, seeing as his new role in defensive coordinator Don Brown's system should lend itself to more eye-popping stat lines. At the moment, the Michigan standout is unlisted on Odds Shark's Heisman odds, but a strong start to the season while playing for one of the country's most high-profile teams could certainly change that.
But no matter how impressive of a year Peppers puts together, actually making it to New York will be an uphill battle, as the Heisman voting process typically favors offensive players. Peppers does, however, possess the potential to pull a Manti Te'o and parlay his star power throughout the year into a late Heisman push, and as long as the Wolverines remain in the limelight, he will as well.
Right now, don't count on Peppers winding up in New York this December, but stranger things have happened. Between his talent and Michigan's new defensive coordinator's stat-friendly scheme, the numbers might simply be too good to ignore, regardless of which side of the ball Peppers plays on.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. Recruiting class rankings courtesy of 247Sports' composite.
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