Savvy NBA Offseason Trade Ideas That Would Quietly Rock the NBA in 2016-17
Let's subtly shake up the NBA's competitive landscape for 2016-17, shall we?
Blockbuster deals were the focus when we last met. Under-the-radar scenarios will be our spirit animal this time around.
Don't worry. These trade ideas still noticeably rock the Association's pecking order in some fashion, vaulting rebuilding teams into the playoff discussion while sending flawed postseason hopefuls into much-needed resets.
Some deals won't be able to reach completion until after the June 23 draft, when certain squads will have the capacity to take on contracts using cap space they don't have now. (We'll outline the financial gymnastics whenever that's the case.)
Like always, check all cynicism and hypothetical-trade intolerance at the velvet ropes. We're about to get weird.
Bucks and Hornets Double Down
Charlotte Hornets Receive: C Greg Monroe
Milwaukee Bucks Receive: PF/C Spencer Hawes and SG Jeremy Lamb
The Milwaukee Bucks made a mistake signing Greg Monroe, and they know it. Their offense didn't improve enough with him jumping center, and his presence in the middle warped the way they played defense to disastrous degrees.
Monroe is subsequently expected to be available this summer, according to the Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times. His 15.3 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game on 52.2 percent shooting are intriguing from afar, but he doesn't protect the rim and shot just 41.2 percent outside the restricted area during his first season in Milwaukee.
The player option Monroe holds for 2017-18 basically means he's on an expiring contract as well. That drives down his plateauing (already plummeting?) value even further unless he agrees to play out the life of the deal with his new team. Moving him in a salary dump is even difficult. There won't be many teams willing to absorb his $17.1 million cap hit in advance of free agency.
But the Charlotte Hornets are an exception. They aren't a hot free-agent destination and have to wipe their books clean just to enjoy a healthy amount of wiggle room.
"[Hornets general manager Rich] Cho and his staff will prepare for every scenario," wrote The Vertical's Bobby Marks, "including the doomsday scenario of being left with $39 million in cap space if a mass exodus of their free agents occurs."
Renouncing the rights to Al Jefferson (easy) and Marvin Williams (tougher) gives Charlotte enough flexibility to pull the trigger here while retaining its pre-contract holds on players like Nicolas Batum and Courtney Lee. Though Monroe's defense and lack of spacing are an obstacle, he's essentially a younger version of Jefferson.
And the Hornets made it work with the latter for three years.
Spencer Hawes and Jeremy Lamb each save the Bucks a little more than $7 million in commitments for next season alone, and both can help fill gaping holes.
Milwaukee, as currently constructed, doesn't have a ton of frontcourt spacing. Hawes is shooting better than 35 percent from deep for his career and drilled more than 37 percent of his triples in Charlotte. He can play the 4 or 5 off the bench, which opens a well-deserved starting slot for John Henson alongside Jabari Parker, a pairing that promises far more floor balance than the Monroe-Parker coupling.
Lamb has yet to find his niche at the NBA level and put down less than 31 percent of his treys in 2015-16. But he is owed just $21 million over the next three seasons and adds wing depth with floor-spacing potential to a Milwaukee offense that's bogged down by jumper-challenged ball-handlers (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Michael Carter-Williams, etc.).
All the extra cap space the Bucks gain can be put toward a sweet-shooting point guard or power forward. So while this deal doesn't thrust them back into the Eastern Conference playoff picture, it does allow them to continue rebuilding without shelling out max money to a big who doesn't move the needle.
Monroe is borderline perfect for the Hornets anyway. He lets them push forward with their current outside-in offensive hierarchy, sans any long-term obligations. And that, in turn, ensures Charlotte can maintain the playoff-bound status quo without rattling its future flexibility.
Denver Speeds Up Its Rebuild; Milwaukee Embraces Its Own
Denver Nuggets Receive: G/F Khris Middleton
Milwaukee Gets: G/F Wilson Chandler, SG Gary Harris, No. 15 pick, No. 19 pick
Pushing 25 and on a contract that will look like a steal after this summer, Khris Middleton isn't out of place in Milwaukee. The Bucks can use him as one of their cornerstones without worrying about him being past his prime once they're ready to compete.
But he's ready to help headline an upstart playoff team today and has a better chance of doing that with the Denver Nuggets. Trading him now allows the Bucks to restock their asset cupboard.
Gary Harris is a freaking stud and easily the best piece Milwaukee lands in this deal. He averaged 13.8 points, 2.3 assists and 1.4 steals per 36 minutes while draining 35.4 percent of his threes as a 21-year-old sophomore. Here's a list of the last six players to reach those benchmarks before their 22nd birthday:
- Stephen Curry (2009-10)
- Paul George (2011-12)
- James Harden (2009-10)
- Jrue Holiday (2010-11, 2011-12)
- Kyrie Irving (2012-13, 2013-14)
- Brandon Jennings (2009-10)
Not bad, eh?
Wilson Chandler is no mere throw-in. He missed all of 2015-16 with a hip injury but is a serious asset when healthy. He defends all wings and power forwards, plus has cleared 34 percent shooting from long range in each of his last three seasons—good enough for him to rank as an upgrade over most of Milwaukee's perimeter weapons.
Together, Chandler and Harris more than replace Middleton's offensive and defensive contributions. And both are on cost-controlled deals. Chandler won't earn more than $12.8 million in any of the next three seasons (if he exercises his player option for the 2018-19 season); Harris will be on his rookie-scale contract through 2017-18.
Those two first-rounders are valuable when tacked on to Milwaukee's 10th overall pick. They give the front office plenty of options when fleshing out the rest of the roster. The Bucks can even try swapping their No. 10 selection with Denver's No. 7 choice. That might not be a deal-breaker in this year's draft.
Middleton, meanwhile, is an ideal fit for the Nuggets. He is a more polished defender than Chandler or Harris, guarding four of the five positions on the floor. And he doesn't need the ball to be successful on offense; he is a low-usage spot-up scorer who will drive and dish when called upon.
Among every player to appear in at least five total games over the last two seasons, Middleton is the only one with an assist percentage of 16, a steal percentage of 2.5, a three-point success rate of 40 and a usage rate below 22. That's ridiculous balance.
Slot him in a lineup alongside Emmanuel Mudiay, Will Barton, Danilo Gallinari and Nikola Jokic, and the Nuggets instantly become a Western Conference playoff candidate—all while maintaining the ability to manufacture $20 million in free-agent spending power.
Welcome to Philly, Ben Simmons!
Chicago Bulls Receive: C Nerlens Noel
Philadelphia 76ers Receive: PG Eric Bledsoe
Phoenix Suns Receive: PF Richaun Holmes, SF/PF Doug McDermott, Sacramento Kings' 2017 top-10 protected first-round pick (via Chicago), Los Angeles Lakers' 2017 top-three protected first-round pick (via Philadelphia)
My apologies to Lakers fans who are hoping the Philadelphia 76ers' frontcourt logjam compels them to pass on Ben Simmons with the No. 1 overall pick.
This move guarantees he'll be suiting up for the Sixers next season.
Philly is actively looking to deal either Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor ahead of the draft, according to ESPN.com's Chad Ford and Marc Stein. Okafor's outdated offensive game and low defensive IQ make him a tough sell elsewhere, but Noel holds value as a first-rate defender and pick-and-roll diver.
The Sixers have already talked to the Atlanta Hawks about a possible Jeff Teague-for-Noel swap, according to The Vertical's Shams Charania. But Teague's since-deleted announcement that he played through a tear in his patella, as preserved by Wendy Adams of 92.9 The Game, likely kills any traction on that front:
With Pau Gasol (player option) and Joakim Noah gearing up for free agency, Noel looms as an interesting pickup for the Chicago Bulls. They can use him as a pick-and-roll rim-runner with Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose, and he's already a finished product on the defensive end.
Opponents shot under 49 percent at the rim against Noel during the regular season. Rudy Gobert, Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Brook Lopez and Hassan Whiteside were the only other players to hold opponents below that number while challenging eight or more attempts around the iron per game.
Still just 22 and set to become a restricted free agent in 2017, Noel projects as an indefinite solution in the middle. The title window has closed on the Bulls' current core, if it was ever really open. They need to get younger, even if the plan is to keep building around Butler (for now).
Losing Doug McDermott doesn't sting Chicago all that much, either. He is a tweener forward who, given his defensive shortcomings, needs to see more time at the 4. But Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis pigeonhole him to the 3.
The Phoenix Suns have more minutes to go around at power forward—especially if they cut ties with Jon Leuer and Mirza Teletovic in free agency. They can have McDermott orbit the three-point line, feasting off kick-outs from Devin Booker and Brandon Knight.
Accepting the Sacramento Kings pick as ancillary compensation is no doubt a risk. If it falls inside the top 10, it becomes a second-round selection, per RealGM. But the Kings finished with the 10th-worst record in the NBA this past year and should improve with a healthier DeMarcus Cousins next season.
Plus, the Suns are perfectly positioned to make that kind of dice roll. Despite their best efforts to stave off a full-on reset, they need to rebuild. The emergence of Booker, coupled with another sub-40 win season, demands it.
Hence why it's cool for Phoenix to trade Bledsoe. He is a borderline star but missed most of 2015-16 with a torn meniscus. And a collection of fringe pieces (hi, Brandon Knight) won't win championships.
Getting back the Lakers' 2018 draft pick should be of more interest to the Suns. Barring a free-agent monopoly, the boys in purple and gold will still be bad enough next season to put the Suns in play for another top-five pick. And don't forget about Richaun Holmes. He is 22, a pesky defender, under team control at less than $1.1 million per season through 2018-19 and a consistent jumper away from guaranteeing Sam Hinkie another general manager position outside Philadelphia.
Speaking of the Sixers, this isn't a move Hinkie would approve. But the team's new regime isn't trying to abide by some soul-sucking process—even if it would have you believe otherwise.
"One thing that is certain, this is not a team that is set and looking to fill a need," Sixers senior adviser Jerry Colangelo told ESPN Radio's Russillo and Kanell show (h/t Liberty Ballers). "This is much more than that. On one hand, it's an easier fix, by that I mean there's so much to do that you can just kind of, it's not a matter of picking a spot, there are a lot of spots to address."
This is comforting for Sixers apologists who are scared the team might overpay any half-competent free agent with a pulse over the offseason. Bledsoe, at 26, gives Philly its first real cornerstone of the post-Andrew Bynum era. He is a top-10 player at his position when healthy and fills one of the Sixers' biggest vacancies: a real, live, NBA-caliber point guard.
Just imagine the offensive and defensive ceiling of a Philadelphia squad headlined by Bledsoe, Simmons and a healthy Joel Embiid. That's a foundation around which the Sixers can build long term.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
