Preseason Heisman Candidates Most Likely to Flop in 2016
In college football, there is not a more prestigious individual preseason honor than claiming a spot as a top contender for the Heisman Trophy.
But expectations could be dangerous for some of 2016's highest-regarded players.
Last year, Cardale Jones (Ohio State), Jeremy Johnson (Auburn) and Corey Clement (Wisconsin) plummeted out of the conversation, while Cody Kessler (USC) and Dak Prescott (Mississippi State) were highly productive but not Heisman contenders.
The upcoming season should bring more of the latter—players who assemble solid years but miss the ultimate prize. It's unlikely any of Odds Shark's top 15 preseason options completely flop.
Dropping out of the Heisman picture or not matching expectations is plausible, however, and the following five standouts are most likely to fall short of the award's preseason hype.
Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami
1 of 5
Odds: 33-1
Brad Kaaya is a terrific quarterback—especially when viewing him as an NFL prospect—but there's simply no chance he posts numbers flashy enough to win the Heisman.
In 2014, Marcus Mariota recorded more than 5,000 yards of total offense and scored 58 touchdowns.
Before him, there was Jameis Winston (4,057 passing yards, 40 TD), Johnny Manziel (5,116 total yards, 47 total TD), Robert Griffin III (4,992 total yards, 47 total TD) and Cam Newton (4,327 total yards, 50 total TD).
Yes, Kaaya has displayed outstanding efficiency. That should only improve under new head coach Mark Richt.
However, unless the junior throws for 4,500 yards and 40-plus touchdowns while leading the Hurricanes to a surprise ACC title, Kaaya—who is nothing close to a dual-threat quarterback—won't bring the Heisman back to Miami for the first time since 1992.
Kaaya will have to settle for being a first-round draft pick.
Joshua Dobbs, QB, Tennessee
2 of 5
Odds: 25-1
Tennessee is an early favorite for the SEC East, partly thanks to Joshua Dobbs returning to lead the offense. Last season, he guided the Vols to a 9-4 record.
But there's a massive gap between "respectable starter" and "Heisman Trophy contender."
Dobbs would have to take an enormous leap despite the receiving corps being a weakness on the Tennessee roster. Last season, only Von Pearson (409) and Josh Malone (405) even topped 400 receiving yards.
Fortunately for the senior, he's a dangerous runner. Dobbs scampered for 671 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2015, so he can atone for some passing shortcomings with mobility.
Enough to win a Heisman, though? Not since 2006 (Troy Smith, Ohio State) has a quarterback averaged less than 200 yards passing and hoisted the hardware, yet he threw for 30 touchdowns. Dobbs managed just 15 scores through the air last year.
All-SEC? Sure. But anything more is just a dream.
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
3 of 5
Odds: 16-1
Josh Rosen fits a similar mold to Kaaya. The UCLA gunslinger is a promising quarterback both at the college and NFL levels, but he won't destroy the box score.
Not only did the Bruins lose three of their top four receivers, offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone departed for Texas A&M. As a result, UCLA is shifting from a spread-based attack to a more run-focused style, although O-coordinator Kennedy Polamalu has given Rosen complete control.
"Our quarterback has the final say," Polamalu said, per Thuc Nhi Nguyen of the Los Angeles Daily News. "That's part of our training all week as coaches to make sure that his final say is the right say."
But that responsibility is more of a benefit to Rosen's status as an NFL prospect than a boost to his Heisman candidacy. The changed offensive philosophy will probably result in a drop from 3,669 yards and only a slight improvement to Rosen's 23 touchdowns.
Considering Deshaun Watson will lead a top-10 program and likely eclipse Rosen's passing numbers before even factoring in running totals, the UCLA star faces an uphill battle to earning the Heisman.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia
4 of 5
Odds: 14-1
Nick Chubb obliterated Georgia's first five opponents in 2015 for 745 yards and eight total touchdowns. Then, a knee injury wrecked his potential Heisman campaign.
When he's healthy, the running back is a major problem for defenses. As a starter, Chubb has literally never not topped the 100-yard mark when he finished the game.
The problem, however, is we don't know when Chubb—who tore three ligaments in his knee—will return to the field.
"I am not a [subject matter expert] on knee injuries," head coach Kirby Smart said, per Seth Emerson of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "So I don't know if that guy is going to be back or not. Do I want him to be back? Yes. But it's hard to say with where he is now whether he'll be back or not."
Even if Chubb is cleared for the regular-season opener, the Bulldogs need not rush him into a workhorse role. Sony Michel averaged 107.5 rushing yards while replacing Chubb.
An NFL team should select Chubb relatively early in next year's draft, but Smart and Co. would be wise to ease the junior into a featured role while protecting his future.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
5 of 5
Odds: 5-1
Nobody anticipates Stanford will ease Christian McCaffrey into the workhorse spot, though. He set the single-season all-purpose-yardage record in 2015, and expectations are only rising.
That's not necessarily fair to the junior.
Longtime quarterback Kevin Hogan graduated, and the Cardinal must replace four offensive linemen. McCaffrey was already the focal point of the offense, but now, he's the option until Stanford has a reliable man under center.
The key potential difference for McCaffrey is scoring more. Remound Wright was the definition of a vulture last year, pounding in every single one of his 13 rushing scores from either the 1- or 2-yard line. He used up his eligibility.
"Flop" could be too harsh a word when describing McCaffrey. Given his recognition and opportunity, McCaffrey will be in the Heisman conversation as long as he's healthy. Few would disagree McCaffrey is practically a top-10 lock.
But how exactly is McCaffrey supposed to improve on the best all-around season in NCAA history—one that didn't earn the Heisman?
No player bears a heavier burden than the Stanford star. If McCaffrey doesn't win the Heisman despite another massive year, that's not a failure. But to some, it will be.
Even if that's not fair.
Stats from CFBStats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
