Jets Need Reality Check If They Plan to Continue Without Ryan Fitzpatrick

Last season, behind a career year from quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, the New York Jets won 10 games. The team fell just short of its first playoff appearance since advancing to the AFC Championship Game in 2010.

With that near-miss comes increased expectations in 2016. Dreams of a deep playoff run. Maybe even a trip to Houston and Super Bowl LI.

There's only one problem: Fitzpatrick and the Jets remain at an impasse over a new contract for the veteran signal-caller. In fact, per reports, the two sides aren't close.

And make no mistake. Without Fitzpatrick in the fold, the Jets' dream season will become a nightmare.

Mind you, the Jets have an offer on the table for the 33-year-old, who threw for a career-high 3,905 yards and 31 touchdowns in 2015. Per NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, it's a front-loaded, three-year deal that's been on said table since March:

March is also how long reports have been swirling that Fitzpatrick wants more. A lot more. According to Bob Glauber of Newsday, Fitzpatrick's demands are rumored to be in the neighborhood of $16 million to $18 million per season.

Now, I'm no member of the cast of The Big Bang Theory, but by my math, the two sides are nowhere close. Fitzpatrick wants the kind of money the Philadelphia Eagles gave to Sam Bradford ($17.5 million per year) and the Houston Texans gave to Brock Osweiler ($18 million per year). The Jets, on the other hand, are thinking Eagles money, too...

The $7 million a season they gave Chase Daniel to back up Bradford.

The stalemate is starting to wear on the team, as well. When OTAs got underway last week, star wide receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall were nowhere to be found. Per Bleacher Report's Jason Cole, Marshall's absence was a coincidence:

According to Brian Costello of the New York Post, Decker was open about his intent:

That's far from the only concern the Jets have. Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News wrote Tuesday that some within the organization fear too may bridges are already burned. "Jets sources," Mehta wrote, "including players, now believe that Fitzpatrick is amenable to spurning them on principle and taking less money to play elsewhere. They no longer think that Fitzpatrick’s return is a fait accompli."

Some pundits, like Dom Cosentino of NJ.com, think it's high time for Fitzpatrick to either take what the Jets have offered or hit the bricks:

"

It's over. The Jets won this negotiation. They didn't misread the market; they understood it perfectly. Their offer—three years, with $12 million payable in the first year, plus reports of $6 million in each of the two years afterward, with NFL Media's Ian Rapoport adding that $15 million is to be guaranteed—has been collecting dust for more than two months now. And it likely won't budge much, if at all.

Yet: Fitzpatrick still hasn't found another team willing to offer him more to be their quarterback. It's not difficult to understand why: The Jets don't see that much of a difference between what Fitzpatrick brought and what Geno Smith could bring to their offense.

"

Fitzpatrick has never been nor will he ever be Joe Montana. He might not even be Joe Namath, whose skills as a quarterback are vastly overrated because of a victory in one game.

Even in last year's "career" season, Fitzpatrick's passer rating of 88.0 ranked 24th among quarterbacks with more than 200 attempts. Pro Football Focus ranked Fitzpatrick 27th at the position, behind such luminaries as Case Keenum of the then-St. Louis Rams and Brian Hoyer of the Houston Texans.

The same Hoyer who is now backing up Jay Cutler in Chicago.

Also, any chance Fitzpatrick had of starting somewhere else in 2016 has come and gone. The opening just isn't there. It may have closed the moment the Denver Broncos reportedly—per ESPN's Adam Schefter (via Will Brinson of CBS Sports)—balked at the same contract demands the Jets are shaking their heads at.

However, there's another factor. One that should have the Jets seriously considering sweetening the pot.

The Geno Smith factor. OK, the Geno Smith/Bryce Petty/Christian Hackenberg factor. Although, in fairness, if either of the latter pair spends any regular-season time on the field other than mop-up duty, the Jets are in a whole different kind of trouble.

More appropriately, it's the fact that in no way, shape or form has Smith ever given the tiniest inkling he's capable of leading the Jets to the playoffs.

Sure, coaches and players have been saying all the right things about the fourth-year pro. Safety Calvin Pryor recently told Ryan Wilson of CBS Sports he's seen a difference in the way Smith carries himself this year:

"

He's always on time. He's always doing the right things. At first [in previous years], I saw that Geno really didn't talk to too many people. But now he speaks and he goes about things the right way.

That's what you have to do when you want guys to believe in you. You have to make sure you talk with everyone. You have to have everybody's trust, everybody believing in you. Because we're only going to go as far as you're going to take us, along with this defense. Every great team, you have to see great quarterback play. ...

Guys are confident that he can get the job done. He just has to be confident in himself, and I think he is. So far, I'm happy with the results.

"

Of course, it's a lot easier to be happy with the results in May.

It would be more difficult to smile if Smith's under center when the Jets face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. In 29 NFL starts, Smith has completed 57.9 percent of his passes. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is minus-eight. His passer rating has barely cracked 70, and he's seven games under .500 (11-18).

Smith made 13 starts in 2014 and ranked 33rd among NFL quarterbacks, per PFF.

Player	GS	Comp. %	PYPG	TD	INT	Rating
Fitzpatrick	105	60.1	205.1	154	116	80.8
Smith	29	57.9	188.3	27	35	72.3

That is not good, folks.

There's more. Two differences between Smith and Fitzpatrick could tip the team's balance from success to failure. From participating in the postseason to watching it on TV.

For all of Fitzpatrick's faults, he proved quite capable last year of making a quick read and unloading the football—a key in coordinator Chan Gailey's offense. He's also demonstrated more than a little toughness over 11 NFL seasons—toughness that comes in handy in the pressure cooker that is the Big Apple.

Smith's release and mental fortitude are questions that have dogged the former second-round pick since before he entered the NFL. And they are questions that remain unanswered.

Now, is it possible Smith's improved in that regard? Maybe. But that's one whopper of an unknown hanging over a Jets team with no margin for error—a Jets team built to win now.

Marshall, running back Matt Forte, center Nick Mangold, linebacker David Harris and cornerback Darrelle Revis are all on the wrong side of 30. There's a limited window before big changes will have to be made.

Granted, this may turn out to be much ado about nothing. Decker and Marshall ended their protests and reported to OTAs this week. Per ESPN.com's Rich Cimini, Decker told reporters he was with family. Marshall indicated he's more concerned with preparing for 2016 than displays of solidarity:

"

You guys know how I feel about Ryan. I've said it over and over again, all offseason. There's a thin line between supporting your teammate and being detrimental to the team. ... At this point, it's time for all of us to move forward and try to figure out how we can win some games.

"

There's still plenty of time before training camp for a deal to get done with Fitzpatrick.

Also, there isn't any reason for the deal not to get done—whether the Jets think they have the leverage or not. No reason not to beef up the deal enough in the short term to get Fitzpatrick's name on the dotted line. No reason not to go into 2016 with their best possible chance to make some noise in an AFC East that's long belonged to the hated New England Patriots.

RICH SCHULTZ/Associated Press

The Jets could dig in. Stand their ground. Gamble that playing means enough to a man—who already has more money than he'll ever need—for him to swallow his pride. Gamble that Fitzpatrick won't just walk away.

That appears, for now at least, to be what they are doing. According to Gary Myers of the New York Daily News, Fitzpatrick's representatives have informed the Jets he's willing to play on a one-year, $12 million deal. The same $12 million the Jets are said to have originally offered on Year 1. The team has balked at the proposal.

And that makes no sense, as a source told Myers: "It’s double jeopardy. Fitz is stuck. The Jets are stuck losing games without him. They need a quarterback. A one-year deal is the answer. The Jets are making this a circus. They’re wrong on this one."

If they "win," and he caves, the Jets get an unhappy quarterback who feels disrespected by his own team. If they don't, it's another (bigger) gamble—that Smith can do the job at all.

Either way, 2016 is starting to have all the makings of yet another unnecessary reality check for the Jets.

Gary Davenport is an NFL analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter @IDPSharks.