Breakup Watch: NBA Teams Set for Major Changes During 2016 Offseason
Before the matchmaking portion of the NBA offseason begins, the basketball gods must orchestrate some breakups. And like most relationships on their last legs, a lot of these splits can be spotted before they actually happen.
The cause could be as simple as timing. Some clubs are overloaded with assets, and with the salary-cap spike coming this summer, this might be the best time for a big move.
Others are in more dire need of a divorce. Their on-court puzzles aren't assembled correctly, and the 2016 offseason offers the perfect opportunity to recalibrate the rosters.
These aren't the teams who simply need to expand their collections of NBA-caliber talent (cough, Philadelphia 76ers) but rather those most likely to build a new identity over the coming months.
Boston Celtics
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The influx of TV money and soaring salary cap has increased the spending power of nearly every team in the league. But no one has more reasons to smile about the summer ahead than the Boston Celtics.
Their war chest of assets has them positioned to be major players in any acquisition market. They're currently holding eight picks in the upcoming draft, opening avenues to both young prospects and potential trades.
They could have more than $51 million in cap space. And many of the same players who helped them notch 48 wins could now be packaged in a deal should an established star become available.
"We're trying to become a better team as fast as we can without selling out. I guess that's the best way to put it," Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said on WBZ TV, via ESPN.com's Chris Forsberg. "We want to become a more significant team this upcoming year."
Whether that chance surfaces in the draft, free agency or through trades, the Celtics seem ready to strike. They have a few potential centerpieces on the roster—notably, Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and perhaps Marcus Smart—but few who would be off limits should a blockbuster deal materialize or cost-cutting moves be needed to facilitate a front-page signing.
Boston's internal moves can be placed on the backburner. Evan Turner would be nice to keep around at the right price, and Jonas Jerebko's nonguaranteed $5 million salary is peanuts in the NBA's new economy. Amir Johnson's nonguaranteed $12 million should be cleared from the books, while restricted free agents Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller could both be easily replaced.
Dallas Mavericks
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There has been a pattern with the Dallas Mavericks' recent offseasons—no drama with Dirk Nowitzki but ample movement around him.
Expect that to continue in 2016.
Nowitzki holds an $8.6 million player option for next season but said he plans to opt out of his current deal, per ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon. The sweet-shooting 7-footer will likely circle back quickly to Dallas on a new deal, possibly slicing his pay to increase the franchise's flexibility. (Again.)
That's when the real action will start. The Mavs have a host of players headed to free agency, likely headlined by Chandler Parsons and Deron Williams—assuming they decline their own options.
Neither will be easy to price. Parsons is a master recruiter and, when healthy, a versatile contributor. But this was the second time in as many seasons his campaign was cut short by right knee surgery. Williams had a decent first go-round with his hometown team, but he's put a lot of mileage on his 31-year-old body and hasn't cleared his career scoring nor assist averages since 2012-13.
The Mavs only own the 46th pick in this draft, so any major splashes will likely need to happen in free agency. They could have $59 million in cap space, so the opportunity to chase a premier target (or two) exists. So, too, does the desire, apparently.
According to Dwain Price of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Dallas could pursue Dwight Howard, Hassan Whiteside and Mike Conley, among others.
Chicago Bulls
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It was difficult—if not impossible—to effectively evaluate Fred Hoiberg's first season as the Chicago Bulls head coach. His philosophy never seemed to mesh with Chicago's personnel. The front office tasked him with creating a modern, uptempo offense with many of the same pieces from the gritty, defense-first clubs formerly overseen by Tom Thibodeau.
This summer should be spent finding players who fit this system. And that effort likely starts in the frontcourt, with Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol (player option) both headed to free agency. Noah has reportedly informed teammates he's ready to leave Chicago, one player told Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. Gasol has said simply he will "evaluate things" over the summer, per ESPN.com's Nick Friedell.
The changes may not stop there. The Bulls have a former MVP (Derrick Rose) and a current All-Star (Jimmy Butler) in their backcourt, and it's still unclear whether that can be a functional pairing. Chicago was outscored by 3.9 points per 100 possessions when the two played together this season, a net efficiency rating that would have ranked just 25th overall.
"One of two things has to happen for this offseason to be successful: The Bulls have to trade Jimmy Butler or Derrick Rose or figure out a way to unlock the potential of their powerful partnership," wrote K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune.
The Bulls would help themselves considerably if they can somehow find a gem with the 14th overall pick. They've recently received uneven returns from youngsters such as Nikola Mirotic, Doug McDermott and Bobby Portis, so adding a reliable prospect on draft night would strengthen the rotation's depth.
Houston Rockets
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From Western Conference finalists to first-round fodder, the Houston Rockets have endured a brutal 12 months. That's why they've already made one radical change—agreeing to a deal with Mike D'Antoni, as first reported by The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski—and could make many more over the summer.
The biggest piece of their offseason puzzle is the future of eight-time All-Star center Dwight Howard. He holds a $23.2 million player option for 2016-17, but that should be an easy decline with the cap rising and the 30-year-old perhaps looking at his last major contract. Re-upping with Houston is possible but highly improbable. For starters, he was less than thrilled with his diminishing involvement this past season.
"I felt like my role was being reduced," Howard told ESPN.com's Jackie MacMullan. "I went to [Rockets general manger] Daryl [Morey] and said, 'I want to be more involved.' Daryl said, 'No, we don't want you to be.' My response was, 'Why not? Why am I here?'"
The Rockets should asking that, too. Howard's scoring is stuck in a two-year decline, and D'Antoni isn't the coach to buck that trend. The two served together with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2012-13, and Howard felt marginalized then, too. Houston could use a more versatile, potent offensive weapon in the middle, and a source told Sporting News' Sean Deveney that Al Horford is the club's "top-line goal in free agency."
Houston seems likely to cut bait with one (or both) of its restricted free-agent forwards: Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas. Veterans Josh Smith and Jason Terry could also be on the chopping block if the Rockets want to get younger. With James Harden on the roster and potentially $44 million in cap space, Houston has some intriguing assets to help fuel a rapid rebuild around its new skipper.
Los Angeles Lakers
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The Los Angeles Lakers are finally getting a clear look at life after Kobe Bryant. It's different, for sure, a blend of optimism and fear, with plenty of overlap between the two.
The Purple and Gold are packing light for their summer vacation. They have a new head coach in Luke Walton, a handful of upside-rich prospects led by D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle, plus a quick-strike scoring reserve in Lou Williams. Beyond that group, there's a gigantic mass of question marks and as much as $68 million in cap space to address them.
The Lakers could take a significant step with the second overall pick in the upcoming draft. Once the Philadelphia 76ers decide between Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram, L.A. will quickly snatch up the other blue-chipper.
But if the Lakers want a speedy way out of the cellar—their 65 wins over the past three seasons are the NBA's second-fewest—they must make major moves in free agency. They haven't had much luck there recently, but their traditional pitches (market, history) will be supplemented by their young nucleus.
"We do know that we're better off now than we were a year ago and certainly better off than we were two years ago," Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak said, per ESPN.com's Baxter Holmes, "and we'll sell whatever we have to sell to try to encourage players to come here."
Jordan Clarkson could be L.A.'s only internal free agent it keeps around. The roster will grow even thinner if the franchise finds a taker for Nick Young. There's a ton of work to be done but just as many potential avenues toward improvement.
Memphis Grizzlies
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The Memphis Grizzlies will never again look like 2015-16. They'll have a new head coach at the helm—reportedly former Miami Heat assistant David Fizdale, per Wojnarowski—and hopefully nothing like the medical maladies that struck them this season.
They had a league-record 28 players see the floor, only six of whom hold guaranteed contracts.
That now includes near-elite point guard Mike Conley. The 28-year-old is a tone-setter at both ends of the floor and talented enough to make the All-Star Game in perhaps any era other than this current golden age of point guards.
He's also hitting the market at the best possible time. Not only is the salary cap skyrocketing, but the crop of free-agent floor generals drops considerably behind him. He's by far the steadiest plug-and-play option, and his contract will reflect that status. Memphis might feel comfortable extending a max offer, but he's already made it clear his return is anything but imminent.
"We need to be committed to doing the things, whatever it may be and however hard the decision may be, to do the right things in order to get us where we need to go," Mike Conley said, per ESPN.com.
It's obvious the Grizzlies could use more shooting, youth and athleticism. They could let aging vets Chris Andersen, Matt Barnes and Vince Carter walk in free agency to create more openings. They should have a long debate over Lance Stephenson's $9.4 million team option. And they must maximize the impact of the 17th pick, since they've never been a free-agent destination.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
