NBA Free Agents with Clear Red Flags Entering 2016 Offseason
Beyond Kevin Durant and LeBron James, there are no slam dunks in this summer's NBA free-agent class.
Even those two aren't without their blemishes: Durant's foot and James' 31-year-old body and rusty jumper. But compared to the rest of the field, they are clearly as good as it gets.
For everyone else, you don't have to dig deep to find nits worth picking.
Maybe it's a clunky shot. Maybe it's a spotty medical rap sheet. Maybe it's a character concern that can't be solved with a simple checkup. Whatever the problems are, these eight free-agents-to-be figure to find front office executives poking around during contract negotiations come July.
Note: Players are listed (roughly) according to rank within the 2016 free-agent crop, based on individual production and potential team-wide impact, from top to bottom.
Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons (Restricted Free Agent)
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Red Flag: Free-Throw Shooting
NBA history is littered with terrible free-throw shooters but none quite as bad—in volume, at least—as Andre Drummond. His 35.5 percent mark from the stripe this past season was the worst ever posted by someone who qualified for the free-throw percentage leaderboard.
Stan Van Gundy, Drummond's coach with the Detroit Pistons, told ESPN.com's Zach Lowe that his All-Star center fares much better at the line behind closed doors: "In practice, he can go in and make 65 to 70 percent. That should translate closer to 50 percent in games. But that isn't happening. So obviously, there are things you've gotta be able to do mentally to help make that transfer."
Translating those results to live action will be key to Drummond's future and, by extension, that of the Pistons. With the hacking rules still as they are, Van Gundy can't afford to leave Drummond in the game when opponents start fouling the big man.
Otherwise, Detroit's offense stagnates, and the entire team winds up out of whack.
But the Pistons can't afford to sit their best player so often either. According to NBA.com, Detroit suffered a 6.6-point swing per 100 possessions when Drummond sat compared to when he played in 2015-16. Against the Cleveland Cavaliers in Round 1, that gap swelled to 15.6 points per 100 possessions.
Over the long haul, the biggest concern here is with Drummond's psyche—call it the "Andris Biedrins Effect." Like the former Golden State Warriors big man, Drummond's struggles at the line could be the loose thread that unspools his entire game. If his free-throw woes continue, will he eventually shy away from contact? Could he come to fear having the ball at all?
The Pistons will have to sort this out soon, before they max out Drummond in restricted free agency.
DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors (Player Option)
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Red Flag: Outside Shot
Three-point shooting has never been DeMar DeRozan's strong suit. He's a career 28.3 percent shooter on just 1.4 attempts per game from beyond the arc during the regular season, though he shot a personal best (and generally respectable) 33.8 percent on 1.8 attempts in 2015-16.
DeRozan's stroke has plummeted down to Earth in these playoffs too: 16 percent on 1.4 attempts, without a make since the Toronto Raptors' Game 5 win over the Miami Heat.
This hole in DeRozan's game isn't necessarily a damning one. His ability to move without the ball, post up and slash with it, and get to the line not only opens up other scoring pathways for him but also, in the eyes of The Cauldron's Ian Levy, harkens back to the glory days of shooting guards:
"If this DeRozan recipe sounds familiar, it's because it is a relic from another era. This is a rough facsimile of how Michael Jordan played. And Kobe Bryant. And, more recently, Dwyane Wade. DeRozan isn't turning back the clock or opening any fissures on the prevailing wisdom of modern basketball. He's just really, really good. This template doesn't work anymore unless you can do all of these things well and excel in a few specific ones.
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DeRozan, though, is not MJ, Kobe or Wade. He's as reasonable a facsimile as you'll find. But without the true threat of a three-point shot, DeRozan's offensive impact is largely limited to the confines of two-point territory.
Hassan Whiteside, C, Miami Heat (Unrestricted Free Agent)
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Red Flag: Temperament
On paper, Hassan Whiteside is arguably the cream of the crop among centers in this year's free-agent class. This past season, he ranked among the league's elite in protecting the rim on one end and finishing pick-and-rolls on the other. His low-post game could use some polish, but as a free-throw shooter (65 percent from the stripe this past season), Whiteside is already light-years ahead of the competition.
So why not give him all of the money?
Maturity, or a lack thereof, has long been a concern with Whiteside. It's why he initially washed out of the league so quickly, after just 19 appearances with the Sacramento Kings across two seasons. It's why he bounced around the globe before finding a home with the Miami Heat and why they brought him off the bench for most of this season's second half.
And it's why teams will worry about handing an eight- or nine-figure deal to a player who practically worships red velvet cake.
Pat Riley, for one, doesn't seem at all hung up on Whiteside's mental state. If anything, he thinks a fat contract could be a palliative for the 26-year-old. As Riley said at his season-ending press conference, per the Miami Herald's Ethan Skolnick:
"I don't think he's even reached his real ceiling in a couple of areas of the game. And I think that now he'll be more comfortable once his situation ends. When a player spends six years of his career having everybody tell him why he's not good enough to be in the NBA … I think when he gets an opportunity, what young players try to do first is, "I'm going to show you I'm good enough to play in the NBA." … [And what] could be individually important might not be as good for the team. But once that's out of the way, I think the roof is the ceiling.
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Dwyane Wade, SG, Miami Heat (Unrestricted Free Agent)
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Red Flag: Age
Pat Riley needn't have any concerns about what's going on upstairs with Dwyane Wade. In February, Wade made clear to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson his desire to dodge the drama of free agency. Recently, he reiterated that preference, per the Miami Herald's Manny Navarro.
The Miami Heat, for their part, would probably prefer tamping down both the years and dollars Wade will be due. As great as he was in this year's playoffs (21.4 points on 46.9 percent shooting, 52.2 percent from three, 5.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists), his game didn't age so gracefully during the regular season, when he shot career lows from the field (45.6 percent) and from three (15.9 percent).
What are the odds that Wade can flip that switch and become the Flash again next spring, when he'll be 35? Or the year after, when he hits 36?
His knees and ankles are already under the microscope of Miami's training staff and have been for some time. That doesn't figure to change in the coming years as Father Time comes knocking at Wade's locker.
It'll be up to the Heat to suss out how soon that reckoning will come and negotiate with his representatives accordingly.
Dwight Howard, C, Houston Rockets (Player Option)
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Red Flag: Age
By all accounts, including his own, Dwight Howard is as healthy now as he's been in years.
"I don't have back issues. I had a back issue, but I had surgery and I'm fine," Howard told ESPN.com's Jackie MacMullan. "I haven't had any trouble with it since. I'm good. I'm healthy.''
That doesn't mean Howard is or will be the same player he was during his heyday with the Orlando Magic. As fit as he may be now, there's no turning back the clock on his body's age (30) or the years of wear and tear he's tacked on.
For a player like Howard, who's leaned so heavily on athleticism and speed to thrive as a pro, any significant decline in physical abilities could spell a precipitous drop in production. If he can't boost an offense with lob dunks and pick-and-roll finishes like he used to, there's not much Howard can do in terms of skill to make up that ground.
And if the big man can't cover ground defensively, both vertically and laterally, his value will only careen further. It may already have taken a hit, with Howard finishing outside the league's top 30 in defensive field-goal percentage at the rim, per NBA.com.
Assuming he opts out of his deal with the Houston Rockets this summer, whichever team throws a hefty four-year deal his way—the Orlando Magic, Milwaukee Bucks, Portland Trail Blazers and Charlotte Hornets are favorites, per ESPN.com's Calvin Watkins—will do so knowing that the Howard it has on its roster in Years 3 and 4 could look and play nothing like the one it signs this summer.
Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards (Restricted Free Agent)
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Red Flag: Right Leg
Bradley Beal insists that four stress injuries to his right fibula in as many seasons won't curtail his development into a potential All-Star—or the payday he has coming this summer. As he told the Washington Post's Jorge Castillo:
"I hear about it all time, but that doesn't define me as a player. That won't stop me from growing as a player and it won't stop me from being who I am. The injury thing, that's behind me. I'm moving forward. I'm past it. I'm focused on my career from here on out. Hell, Steph Curry was hurt his first four years. Look at him now. John [Wall] was hurt his first three or four years. Look at him now. I'm not worried about it. People are going to say what they want to say. At the end of the day, it's not going to affect me or the money.
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Beal may have a point. Setbacks and all, he's improved from season to season. In 2015-16, he flashed a more proficient game inside the arc (48.1 percent from two) while knocking down a respectable 38.7 percent of his threes. And at 22, Beal is still years away from the typical NBA peak.
That being said, any trepidation about offering Beal, a restricted free agent, the max—be it from the Washington Wizards or some other suitor—would be well-founded. He's missed an average of 20.3 games per season as a pro, including a career-worst 27 absences this past year.
If he can't play a complete campaign or has to play limited minutes just to survive an 82-game slate, how can any team justify paying him full freight?
Chandler Parsons, SF, Dallas Mavericks (Player Option)
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Red Flag: Right Knee
Chandler Parsons is 2-of-2 with the Dallas Mavericks. That is, two season-ending surgeries on his right knee in two campaigns since fleeing Houston.
According to ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon, Parsons' latest setback is far less severe than last year's, which wiped out his summer and forced the Mavs to monitor his minutes to start 2015-16.
This time, Parsons should be free to resume his offseason regimen and be back at full speed well before the fall.
Still, his knee officially has a history of its own now. Any team that looks at him this summer will wonder and worry about its long-term stability, perhaps even after doctors and trainers poke and prod.
Not that Parsons' suitors should or will be deterred. For all his early struggles, he still wound up posting career-best percentages from the field (49.2 percent) and from three (41.4 percent).
If Parsons could do that on a shaky knee, imagine what he might do with the benefit of a healthy one.
Rajon Rondo, PG, Sacramento Kings (Unrestricted Free Agent)
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Red Flag: Even the Kings Aren't Sure They Want Him
Rajon Rondo's game is rife with red flags.
He's an abominable shooter from both the free-throw line (60.6 percent for his career) and three-point arc (28.9 percent for his career). His three assist titles belie how often he hunts helpers over his own easy finishes. Defensively, his gambles for steals often result in sure shots inside 10 feet for his marks.
At 30, with major knee surgery in his past, Rondo isn't likely to regain or improve these aspects of his game easily, if at all.
But the most glaring warning sign of all may be that the Sacramento Kings aren't keen to bring him back, per ESPN.com's Zach Lowe: "The latest scuttlebutt is that the Kings are prepared to cut bait with Rajon Rondo if the bidding for him gets beyond a certain threshold that is lower than we might imagine, given the Kings' recent transaction history."
Just so we're all clear, Sacramento—a team that has run through almost as many point guards as coaches since it last cracked the playoffs in 2006—plans to play it stingy with a floor general who paced the Association in assists last season while forming a strong bond with disgruntled superstar DeMarcus Cousins.
Come to think of it, maybe it's Sacramento's front office that deserves a red flag here.
Stats per NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise cited.
