SEC Football Q&A: Which Teams Have Legit College Football Playoff Hopes?
The New Year's Eve ratings debacle gave this year's College Football Playoff a sour taste, but what the new four-team tournament has done is dominate the national conversation during the month of November.
No matter where you turn, everybody is talking about who's in, who's out and who has work left to do in order to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee.
In the SEC, that should be a loaded conversation in 2016.
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Defending national champion Alabama deserves the right to be in that conversation regardless of roster attrition, one more step forward should bring Tennessee into the national picture and several other SEC teams could jump into it if chips fall their way.
Which teams are legit playoff hopefuls? That question and more are answered below.
OK, before everybody heads to the comments section to release internet rage on this list, let's be clear about what's being asked.
To me, a "legit" playoff shot means any team that has the talent to be that good, even if there are roster holes in the offseason and/or problems that, in years past, have prevented it from reaching that level.
With that said, let's divide them into two groups:
- Ready to roll: Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss
- Legit if improved: Florida, LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, Auburn
The three that are ready to roll are obvious.
Alabama has earned the benefit of the doubt over the last two seasons in which it has claimed the SEC title and made the playoff in spite of massive roster uncertainty.
There are even more roster holes than normal on the offensive side of the ball this year, but one thing offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has done during his tenure in Tuscaloosa is prove that he can figure things out.
Tennessee brings pretty much everybody back, and if head coach Butch Jones can find a wide receiver to help quarterback Joshua Dobbs stretch the field deep, there's no reason why Tennessee can't exceed Las Vegas' predicted over/under win total of 10, per Covers.com, and join the CFP discussion.
People are going to panic over the stars who left Ole Miss. I get that.
Quarterback Chad Kelly just pulled off the third-most prolific offensive season in SEC history (4,542 yards), the wide receiving corps is loaded with Quincy Adeboyejo, Damore'ea Stringfellow and a group of about six highly touted youngsters, and the defense has studs like linebacker DeMarquis Gates, safety Tony Conner, edge-rusher Marquis Haynes and lineman Breeland Speaks to help out.
The other teams have obvious issues.
For Florida, it's offensive line and quarterback (likely Luke Del Rio). Georgia, Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M all have quarterback and passing-game issues as well, but have done a lot in the offseason to address them.
If some of those measures work or newcomers like Georgia's Jacob Eason or Auburn's John Franklin III make an early impact, those teams can put together the final pieces of their championship puzzles.
In the East, it absolutely is a three-team race.
As I wrote in last week's Q&A, Florida, Tennessee and Georgia are the only legit division contenders, but other teams—namely Vanderbilt...yes Vanderbilt—can certainly shake up that race with an upset or two.
In the West, it absolutely isn't a three-team race.
As stated above, Alabama and Ole Miss are in it, but LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn can make some noise.
LSU is the king of offseason hype this year thanks to the return of several defensive stars who were draft-eligible, junior running back Leonard Fournette and the presence of new defensive coordinator Dave Aranda.
But none of those positives actually address the issue at LSU, which is an ultra-conservative offensive scheme that prevents the Tigers from opening things up if their defense lets them down and teams stack the box against Fournette.
That can change, though. Now, it hasn't changed much during Les Miles' tenure in Baton Rouge, but perhaps a scorching backside entering the season could change that and force LSU into a more vertical attack.
People want to knock Texas A&M for the departure of 5-star quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray. But Trevor Knight was one of the best graduate-transfer quarterbacks on the market, the Aggies are loaded at wide receiver and running back, new offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone will preach more physicality, and the defense is stacked with stars like end Myles Garrett, tackle Daylon Mack and safety Armani Watts.
"They are afraid of Texas A&M making that next jump," defensive coordinator John Chavis said on TexAgs Radio this month, according to CoachingSearch.com (h/t Ron Higgins of NOLA.com). "We're going to make that jump."
Auburn's defensive front features playmakers like ends Carl Lawson and Marlon Davidson, as well as tackle Montravius Adams. Illinois graduate-transfer T.J. Neal and junior Tre' Williams should provide a solid one-two punch at linebacker in what's going to be a 4-2-5 defense more times than not.
Carlton Davis is a potential All-SEC-caliber corner, and "Rudy" Ford and Tray Matthews are veteran safeties who know the ropes.
If Auburn can find something—anything—to take pressure off running back Jovon Robinson, it'll be fine.
This isn't the first time this question has popped up, and for the life of me—other than perhaps fallout from the Title IX lawsuit—I can't figure out why it's even being asked.
Butch Jones won five games during his first season in 2013 and has improved his record by two games in each of the last two seasons.
The Vols went 9-4 last year, finished second in the SEC East (which is where they were picked at media days before the season), were one 4th-and-14 play versus Florida away from playing in Atlanta and lost close games to East champion Florida, two College Football Playoff teams and Arkansas.
If consistent improvement out of a roster hole that nobody would wish on their worst enemy, upward momentum and the development of the best roster in the division heading into the season earn a coach—any coach—a spot on the "hot seat," there will be no more football coaches.
After all, who would want to get into a business that volatile?
Now, of course, a 3-9 debacle with said roster would likely call his job into question. But that's true of pretty much any coach in the SEC at this point given the high salaries and expectations the big boys have created in the conference.
But barring off-the-field issues that could complicate things, Jones is on one of the coolest seats in the conference outside of Tuscaloosa.
Georgia early enrollee Isaac Nauta is certainly one of the best tight end prospects to come into the SEC in recent memory, and he certainly can put up the type of season that Hunter Henry did at Arkansas in 2015 when the then-junior tight end caught 51 passes for 739 yards and three touchdowns.
Nauta, a 6'4", 237-pounder from Buford, Georgia, by way of IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, is a matchup nightmare who has the speed to stretch the field deep on defensive backs and linebackers, and the size to be a weapon on critical third downs.
The question is, how will offensive coordinator Jim Chaney use him?
J.P. Holtz and Scott Orndoff were Pitt's third- and fourth-leading receivers last year under Chaney, respectively, and combined for 594 receiving yards.
Chaney himself helped Henry top the 500-yard mark as Arkansas' offensive coordinator during Henry's sophomore year in 2014, and Henry topped the 400-yard mark as a freshman under Chaney in 2013.
For Georgia, in a year in which there's a bit of uncertainty at wide receiver and quarterback, a reliable tight end certainly has a chance to be a focal point of the offense.
Who will that be, though?
Jeb Blazevich is a veteran who will likely be that "1A" target at tight end for Georgia early. But there's room for two tight ends at Georgia this year, so it would not surprise me at all if Nauta takes a similar path as Henry.
He'll put together a solid freshman season that might be overshadowed a bit and evolve into a superstar by his junior year.
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report, as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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