Best- and Worst-Case 2016 Scenarios for Each Top 25 College Football Team
For college football fans, summer is a time for hope. Every team is undefeated. New recruits, coaches and schemes will make a difference in the fall. Unproven players will fulfill their potential and lead programs to bowl games, league titles and the College Football Playoff. As fans thumb through preseason magazines, it’s easy for minds to wander and think about fall glory before the first down is played.
That’s the beauty of summer. As players sweat through offseason workouts, fans are free to imagine how those hours in the sun will pay off, for better or worse. That’s what we’ve done here. We’ve examined each program’s 2016 schedule, returning roster and recruits, and determined a best- and worst-case scenario for the Top 25 preseason programs.
The Top 25 we’re using is a composite of available preseason polls, compiled by Bleacher Report. These are not hard and fast predictions but simply an examination of what could happen, for better or worse. Agree? Disagree? Let us know in the comments.
25. Miami
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Miami has been something of a sleeping giant in college football circles. The Hurricanes were a national power from the 1980s through the early 2000s but haven’t made an ACC title game since joining the league. Miami hopes that Mark Richt can wake the program from its slumber. The program hired the former ‘Canes quarterback to replace Al Golden, who went 32-25 in four-plus seasons, never winning more than nine games.
Richt told Christy Cabrera Chirinos of the South Florida Sun Sentinel that the new challenge has energized him:
"I think we're on track and implementing the way we're going to go about our business. I think our players have responded well. I think our coaches are all bought in, and I think we're doing all the things that we need to do to give us a chance. It's tough competing against other schools trying to do the same thing, but we're on the right track.
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He’ll inherit some strong building blocks, including 2014 ACC Freshman of the Year Brad Kaaya, one of the top pro-style quarterbacks in college football. The Hurricanes avoid Clemson and Louisville but must travel to Appalachian State and Notre Dame in nonconference play.
Best-case scenario: Kaaya passes for 3,500 yards with 25 touchdowns. The Hurricanes finally break through against Florida State, wake up the echoes with a victory at Notre Dame and claim the ACC Coastal.
Worst-case scenario: The strange trip to Appalachian State bites the Hurricanes with an upset loss. Miami loses to Florida State, and at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. It winds up 6-6 in a low-level bowl game, ending Richt’s South Florida honeymoon almost before it begins.
24. UCLA
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2015 was ultimately a disappointment for UCLA. The Bruins returned a talented core from a 10-win team and hoped to make a move toward the College Football Playoff. Instead, it was a step backward. UCLA finished the year 8-5 following a disappointing Foster Farms Bowl loss to a sub-.500 Nebraska team that only made a bowl with an NCAA waiver because there weren’t enough six-win teams to fill the postseason pool.
Jim Mora Jr. returns sophomore quarterback Josh Rosen, who threw for 3,670 yards with 23 touchdowns against 11 interceptions but must replace his top receiver and rusher in Jordan Payton and Paul Perkins. The Bruins face a tough nonconference schedule that includes trips to Texas A&M and BYU, but they will avoid Oregon and Washington from the North.
Best-case scenario: Rosen develops into a star, and Soso Jamabo is a capable backfield option. The Bruins sweep through preconference play, surprise Stanford and wrap up the season by beating Southern California and Cal to win the Pac-12.
Worst-case scenario: UCLA goes 0-2 against BYU and the Aggies, gets rolled by Stanford, loses at Washington State and to the crosstown Trojans, and squeaks into a bowl at 7-5, leaving fans to wonder if Mora can win in Westwood.
23. Oklahoma State
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Oklahoma State wants to repeat its start to 2015, not the finish. Mike Gundy and Co. surprised many by beginning the season 10-0 but slumped to a 0-3 finish, including blowout losses to Oklahoma and to Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl.
The Cowboys must find pass-rushing punch to replace departed defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah, but scoring points shouldn’t be a problem. They return 10 offensive starters, led by junior quarterback Mason Rudolph, who developed into a star last fall while throwing for 3,770 yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
The schedule features a challenging nonconference visit from Pitt and trips to Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma—all expected to challenge for the Big 12 title.
Best-case scenario: Oklahoma State caps another 10-0 start with road wins at TCU and Oklahoma, and the Cowboys win the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoff.
Worst-case scenario: Pitt walks into Boone Pickens Stadium and surprises OSU, and the defense doesn’t travel with road defeats at Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma and Kansas State. Gundy’s frustrations get the best of him, and he unloads a rant on a reporter that makes “I’m a man! I’m 40!” look tame, capping a 7-5 season.
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22. North Carolina
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2015 didn’t get started the way North Carolina and Larry Fedora wanted thanks to an ugly 17-13 loss to South Carolina, but the rest was pretty good. The Tar Heels won 11 straight games, won the ACC Atlantic Division and pushed Clemson before falling in the ACC title game.
Fourteen starters return from that team, and the hope is to make a move forward with new quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who replaces graduated dual-threat passer Marquise Williams. Can it happen? A season-opening Georgia Dome game against Georgia and trips to Florida State and Miami will test the Heels without question.
Best-case scenario: Trubisky doesn’t miss a beat as the new starter. UNC whips Georgia in the opener, wins against the Seminoles and Hurricanes, wins the ACC Atlantic and defeats Clemson in the ACC title game to make the College Football Playoff.
Worst-case scenario: Larry Fedora’s group starts with another neutral-site loss, falls at FSU and Miami, and loses to both Duke and N.C. State. By late November, fans are flocking to the Dean Dome, not Kenan Stadium.
21. Oregon
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Following Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota’s departure, Oregon had an uneven 2015 season. The Ducks excelled when quarterback Vernon Adams was healthy but blew a 31-0 halftime lead to TCU in the Alamo Bowl. Offensive coordinator Scott Frost left to become Central Florida’s head coach, and defensive coordinator Don Pellum was demoted, replaced by former Michigan coach Brady Hoke.
Matt Lubick, who was promoted to replace Frost, must find Adams’ replacement, either Montana State graduate transfer Dakota Prukop or Travis Jonsen. The schedule is potentially challenging, starting with a Sept. 17 trip to Nebraska and a November stretch that includes trips to Southern California and Utah sandwiched around a visit from Stanford.
Best-case scenario: Prukop grabs the job and excels in the fast-paced system. The Ducks roll in Nebraska, defeat Stanford and USC, and win the Pac-12 North.
Worst-case scenario: Old friend Mike Riley surprises Oregon, and Christian McCaffrey runs all over Hoke’s defense. The season ends with losses at Utah and Oregon State, and some wonder if Helfrich’s best days have passed in Eugene.
20. Georgia
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After three seasons away from the SEC title game, Georgia fans were hungry for change, and they got it in Kirby Smart. The Bulldogs parted ways with Mark Richt after 15 seasons and hired Smart, Alabama’s defensive coordinator who was considered one of the nation’s top assistant coaches. But can Smart effect change quickly in Athens?
Fans will find out in a hurry. Georgia opens against returning ACC Coastal champion North Carolina in the Georgia Dome and travels to Ole Miss on Sept. 24. The Bulldogs do avoid Alabama and LSU from the SEC West.
Best-case scenario: Georgia returns to the SEC title game, with freshman Jacob Eason emerging as the quarterback of the future and the present. The Bulldogs win 10 games, knock off North Carolina and rival Georgia Tech, and wind up in a "New Year’s Six" game.
Worst-case scenario: The Tar Heels make the Bulldogs heel in a harbinger for a tough 2016. Tailback Nick Chubb isn’t 100 percent healthy in his return from torn knee ligaments, and Eason looks like a freshman under center. Another eight-win season makes fans wonder why Richt left in the first place.
19. Southern California
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Southern California officials could have likely attracted a very accomplished coach to replace Steve Sarkisian. After all, the Trojans boast one of the nation’s most tradition-rich programs with a strong recruiting base and plenty of pieces for success. Instead, they chose stability, promoting Clay Helton after he led the charge to a Pac-12 South title following Sarkisian’s dismissal.
Helton will return 14 starters but must replace prolific quarterback Cody Kessler, with Max Browne and Sam Darnold battling to do so. The schedule is tough: The Trojans open against defending national champion Alabama, and travel to Stanford and Utah in September alone. November (Oregon, at Washington, at UCLA and Notre Dame) is also brutal.
Best-case scenario: Browne grabs the starting role and stuns Alabama in the opener. USC then runs the table to a College Football Playoff berth with Adoree’ Jackson doing things all over the field.
Worst-case scenario: Neither Browne nor Darnold proves he's ready to be a starting quarterback. Alabama rolls the Trojans, and so do Christian McCaffrey and Stanford. The season ends with losses to rivals UCLA and Notre Dame, and fans openly wonder why program officials didn’t look a little harder for their new head coach.
18. Louisville
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Bobby Petrino’s second stint at Louisville is going pretty well. In two seasons, the Cardinals are 16-10 with a pair of eight-win campaigns. Louisville fans naturally want more, and Petrino’s group is in position to do so in 2016.
The Cardinals return 17 starters, and athletic quarterback Lamar Jackson will lead the offense. In his last performance, Jackson put up 453 yards of total offense and four touchdowns on Texas A&M in the Music City Bowl. Seniors Devonte’ Fields, Keith Kelsey and Josh Harvey-Clemons, and junior Shaq Wiggins will lead a stingy defense.
Louisville has a manageable schedule that avoids North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech from the ACC Coastal. What would success look like? An Atlantic Division championship, obviously. That won’t be easy with Clemson and Florida State on the schedule yearly.
Best-case scenario: The Cardinals sweep through a nonconference schedule that includes trips to Houston and Marshall, surprise Florida State at home and win 10 games, taking the Atlantic title.
Worst-case scenario: They go 0-3 in the stretch of FSU, Marshall and Clemson, lose at Houston and get upset at home by Kentucky to end the regular season, finishing 5-7 and out of postseason play.
17. Washington
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Chris Petersen has yet to live up to his promise as Washington’s head coach. Petersen won 92 games in eight seasons at Boise State but is just 15-12 in two seasons with the Huskies. There are reasons to believe, however, that 2016 will be special in Seattle.
Washington returns 15 starters, including quarterback Jake Browning, tailback Myles Gaskin (who rushed for 1,302 yards with 14 touchdowns as a freshman) and safety Budda Baker, one of the nation’s top safeties.
The schedule is tough but manageable. Rutgers is the most difficult nonconference foe, meaning anything less than 3-0 would be a disappointment entering Pac-12 play.
Best-case scenario: The Huskies beat Stanford, win at Oregon and defeat Southern California and win the Pac-12 North.
Worst-case scenario: They’re stunned at home by the Scarlet Knights in the opener and rolled by the Cardinal and Ducks, and lose the Apple Cup to Washington State. Browning regresses as a sophomore, and a 6-6 season leaves fans sleepless in Seattle about Petersen’s future.
16. Iowa
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A year ago, Iowa stunned the college football world, going from 7-6 to a 12-0 regular season and finishing inches short of the College Football Playoff in a 16-13 Big Ten title game loss to Michigan State. A Rose Bowl rout at Stanford’s hands dampened the season’s end, but 14 starters, led by quarterback C.J. Beathard and Jim Thorpe Award winner Desmond King, return, and the schedule is manageable.
Iowa State is the toughest nonconference foe; Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan come to Kinnick Stadium; and the Hawkeyes avoid Michigan State and Ohio State from the Big Ten East.
It won’t be easy, but another run at the playoff is possible.
Best-case scenario: The Hawkeyes roll through their home schedule, survive at Penn State and defeat Michigan at home. This time around, they beat Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and make the College Football Playoff.
Worst-case scenario: Iowa State and new coach Matt Campbell stun the Hawks in Kinnick. Penn State and the Wolverines are too much for Iowa, and Nebraska and Mike Riley win in Iowa City on Black Friday. An 8-4 season and a trip to the TaxSlayer Bowl feel awfully hollow.
15. TCU
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TCU has revitalized its program with the Air Raid offense. Trevone Boykin excelled in a fast-paced scheme that lit up scoreboards all over the Big 12. A year ago, the Horned Frogs averaged 42.7 points per game, No. 7 nationally. This fall, however, they’ll be reloading. Boykin graduated, and top receiver Josh Doctson was a first-round NFL draft pick.
Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill and Foster Sawyer are battling to replace Boykin, and speedy KaVontae Turpin needs to prove he can be a No. 1 receiver. The Frogs will host Arkansas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and travel to Baylor and Texas.
Best-case scenario: Hill shows why he was briefly considered a Heisman Trophy contender as an Aggie, and the Frogs roll through the Big 12 unbeaten on their way to a College Football Playoff berth.
Worst-case scenario: Neither quarterback shows consistency in the offense, Turpin is more of a No. 2 wideout, and the trouble starts when Arkansas upsets the Frogs on Sept. 10. They also falter against Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas, and slip to a disappointing 8-4 mark.
14. Michigan State
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For Michigan State, 2016 is all about the encore. The Spartans broke through as a national power, winning the Big 10 and finishing 12-2 with a College Football Playoff appearance. Repeating the feat will be difficult. Nine starters return, and the team must replace tough quarterback Connor Cook and pass-rushing defensive end Shilique Calhoun.
The Spartans get both Michigan and Ohio State at home, with the toughest road game a Sept. 17 trip to Notre Dame.
Best-case scenario: Tyler O’Connor emerges as the starting quarterback. MSU wins in South Bend, and handles both Michigan and Ohio State at home to win the Big Ten East, taking the league title and another College Football Playoff berth.
Worst-case scenario: Cook is sorely missed, and Malik McDowell is not a difference-maker on the defensive line. Notre Dame makes the Spartans look silly, and the Wolverines and Buckeyes get revenge for late-season wins. Penn State upsets MSU in the regular-season finale for a disappointing season.
13. Ole Miss
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It was good to be part of the Ole Miss program last fall. The Rebels defeated eventual national champion Alabama for the second consecutive season and won 10 games, capping the year with a Sugar Bowl whipping of Oklahoma State. The hard part? Repeating it. Only eight starters return, and Hugh Freeze must replace NFL first-round picks in left tackle Laremy Tunsil, wide receiver Laquon Treadwell and defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche.
The schedule isn’t easy. It begins with a Labor Day evening trip to Orlando to face Florida State, and the usual SEC West gauntlet of Alabama, LSU and Mississippi State also includes SEC East foe Georgia.
Best-case scenario: Chad Kelly is one of the nation’s most dangerous quarterbacks, and the Rebels start the year strong by upsetting the Seminoles, taking out Alabama for a third time and defeating LSU in Baton Rouge. Ole Miss wins the SEC and makes the College Football Playoff.
Worst-case scenario: The Rebels are embarrassed by Florida State, finally lose to Alabama, and fall to LSU and then Mississippi State at home. They can’t protect Kelly, who gets frustrated and throws a late-season sideline tantrum in full view with Freeze watching in horror.
12. Houston
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When it came to head coaching debuts in 2016, there was Tom Herman and everyone else. Herman got the most out of Houston in his first season in town, leading the Cougars to a 13-1 record, American Athletic Conference title and a Peach Bowl win over Florida State.
Now, Houston wants to prove that a "Group of Five" team can make the College Football Playoff, with dynamic quarterback Greg Ward Jr. leading the way. The schedule sets up well, with Oklahoma coming to town for the season opener and Louisville visiting on Nov. 17 for a big Thursday night game.
Best-case scenario: The Cougars set the pace by surprising Oklahoma in the season opener and run the table, defeating Louisville in November and finishing 13-0 with another AAC title. A rash of upsets elsewhere paves the way for a playoff bid.
Worst-case scenario: Oklahoma routs the Cougars in the opener, and the season ends with losses to Louisville and Memphis. Houston doesn’t even win its own division, and a Power Five program plucks Herman away regardless.
11. Stanford
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Stanford showed last fall why it’s worth making a little extra effort to watch the Cardinal. David Shaw’s program rolled to its third Pac-12 title in four seasons, capping the year with a 45-16 Rose Bowl rout of Iowa. Tailback Christian McCaffrey broke out as a star, leading the nation in all-purpose yardage and finishing second in Heisman Trophy voting. The best part? He’s back this fall for his junior season.
The schedule is anything but easy. Following a home opener against Kansas State, Southern California visits, and the Cardinal travel to UCLA and resurgent Washington. That’s followed by a date with Washington State and an Oct. 15 trip to Notre Dame. That’s a tough first half of the season.
Best-case scenario: A capable replacement for quarterback Kevin Hogan emerges, and McCaffrey does McCaffrey-like things, winning the Heisman Trophy even while playing a majority of games after 9 p.m. ET. The Cardinal run the table in the Pac-12 and make the College Football Playoff.
Worst-case scenario: Hogan is missed more than anyone realizes. Stanford loses to Southern California, Notre Dame and UCLA as well as Oregon, and McCaffrey jumps to the NFL following a very good season that feels empty at 8-4.
10. Tennessee
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There are plenty of reasons to be excited on Rocky Top these days. Butch Jones has steadily improved the Tennessee program, and with 17 starters returning from a 9-4 team, the Volunteers should be SEC East favorites, at the very least.
Florida and Alabama both come to Knoxville, while the Vols must travel to Georgia and Texas A&M, and play Virginia Tech in the Battle at Bristol, a game at Bristol Motor Speedway expected to draw over 150,000 fans, per Mike Strange of the Knoxville News Sentinel. There will be no shortage of attention on the program.
Best-case scenario: This group shows that it is ready for prime time. Tennessee easily handles Virginia Tech, beats both Florida and Alabama at home, wins the SEC East, and defeats the Crimson Tide in Atlanta to win the SEC and make the College Football Playoff.
Worst-case scenario: The hype isn’t for real, at least not yet. Tennessee’s penchant for losing big games shows up against the Gators and Crimson Tide. Virginia Tech embarrasses Tennessee at Bristol, and Georgia gets revenge for 2015’s win. Another 8-4 season leaves fans unhappy with Jones.
9. Notre Dame
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Following a 10-win season, there is reason for Brian Kelly to be excited about the condition Notre Dame’s program is in. However, the Fighting Irish have some work to do this fall. Notre Dame returns only 10 starters and must decide between Malik Zaire (returning from a broken ankle) and Deshone Kizer at quarterback.
As usual, the schedule is tough. The Irish open the season on Sunday, Sept. 4, at Texas and host Michigan State two weeks later. Stanford visits on Oct. 15, and the regular season ends with a visit from Virginia Tech and a trip to Southern California.
Only four points separated Notre Dame from an unbeaten regular season last fall.
Best-case scenario: The Irish take advantage of a reloading Michigan State team, take down Stanford in South Bend, and end the year by routing Southern California and putting the bow on a College Football Playoff bid.
Worst-case scenario: Charlie Strong and Texas get some revenge on opening night. Christian McCaffrey runs all over the Irish, and Virginia Tech surprises them in the home finale. The Irish finish 9-3, and neither Zaire nor Kizer really seizes the starting quarterback role, leading to another offseason of speculation.
8. Baylor
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Under Art Briles’ watch, Baylor is never boring. Last fall, the Bears averaged 616.2 yards and 48.1 points per game of total offense, both tops nationally. And they did so while battling through injuries that left them with their third-string quarterback by November.
This year, Briles must pick between Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. Both are appealing options to lead an explosive offense that must replace top receiver Corey Coleman (KD Cannon will step forward) and four of five starting offensive linemen.
The first real test will come Sept. 24 when Oklahoma State comes to town. The Bears will also host TCU and travel to Oklahoma in back-to-back weeks in early November, which should say plenty about their Big 12 title aspirations.
Best-case scenario: Russell emerges as the clear starter, and Cannon proves himself as a true No. 1 receiver. The offense hums again, and Baylor finishes 12-0, wins the Big 12 and makes its first College Football Playoff.
Worst-case scenario: The new offensive line can’t protect Russell, and Baylor loses to TCU and Oklahoma as well as Texas. A 9-3 record feels like a big letdown.
7. Ohio State
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Ohio State isn’t the kind of program that rebuilds, but 2016 will certainly be about reloading in Columbus. The Buckeyes lost 12 NFL draft picks from the 2015 roster, and nine underclassmen (including standouts such as defensive end Joey Bosa and tailback Ezekiel Elliott) left early. Only eight starters return, and the team will lean on junior dual-threat quarterback J.T. Barrett for leadership and production.
The schedule is challenging. A Sept. 17 trip to Oklahoma will be a major test for a young roster, and Ohio State also travels to Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan State.
Best-case scenario: The young Buckeyes are better faster than anyone thought, serving notice with a win at Oklahoma. They get revenge on Michigan State for last fall’s 17-14 defeat, and humble Jim Harbaugh and Michigan in the Horseshoe. Ohio State wins the Big Ten title and makes the College Football Playoff.
Worst-case scenario: Barrett struggles with so many new faces around him. The Buckeyes don’t learn from an early loss in Norman, fall to Michigan State again, and have to watch Harbaugh and the Wolverines celebrate a Big Ten East title in Ohio Stadium. Ouch.
6. LSU
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There’s a good reason why LSU officials kept Les Miles around for another season: The Tigers should be excellent in 2016. Eighteen starters return from a 9-3 team that started 7-0 but fell off a cliff with three consecutive losses in November. Leonard Fournette is the nation’s best power back, a very dangerous force for opponents to attempt tackling. New defensive coordinator Dave Aranda is an upgrade from Kevin Steele, who bolted for Auburn after one season in Baton Rouge.
A trip to Lambeau Field to open the season against Wisconsin is fascinating, and both Ole Miss and Alabama come to Baton Rouge. It’s a schedule that sets up well for a run at the SEC West.
Best-case scenario: The Tigers handle the Badgers and then stop the Rebels and Crimson Tide at home to claim the West title. They win the SEC and roll through the College Football Playoff, giving Miles his second national title.
Worst-case scenario: A November to forget muffles another strong start. The Tigers lose to Alabama, Arkansas and Texas A&M, and nothing can save Miles this time. Another 9-3 season is his last at LSU.
5. Oklahoma
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Last fall, Bob Stoops showed that he isn’t finished just yet. New offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley and quarterback Baker Mayfield thrived in the Air Raid offense, and Oklahoma went from 8-5 to the College Football Playoff.
The team will return 14 starters, including Mayfield, but must find a replacement for No. 1 receiver Sterling Shepard, who graduated. Maybe leaning on a strong backfield duo of Samaje Perine and Joe MIxon will help fill the void.
Facing Houston and Ohio State in September won’t be easy, but Baylor and Oklahoma State come to Norman, while OU must travel to TCU.
Best-case scenario: The Sooners begin strong by putting Houston in its place and whipping a young Ohio State team. They get revenge on Texas for the only loss of 2015, and beat Baylor and TCU, clinching a playoff bid by working over Oklahoma State in Bedlam.
Worst-case scenario: Houston harasses Mayfield all day, and the Sooners start the season with a humbling loss to the Cougars. Charlie Strong beats Stoops for a second consecutive season, and Mike Gundy surprises OU in Bedlam to close an 8-4 regular season. Sooners fans are once again off the Stoops bandwagon.
4. Florida State
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Following a “down” 10-3 season, Florida State and Jimbo Fisher are hoping for a return to form in 2016. The Seminoles have some questions at quarterback with Sean Maguire but return 17 starters, including all 11 on offense. The most important? Tailback Dalvin Cook, a speedy threat who can score every time he touches the ball. Safety Derwin James is an emerging star in the secondary as well.
The schedule has its high points, beginning with a Labor Day showdown against Ole Miss in Orlando. The always-crucial Clemson game is at home on Oct. 29, and so is the rivalry match with Florida on Nov. 26.
Best-case scenario: The Seminoles show that 2015 was an aberration. They finish the regular season unbeaten, defeating Deshaun Watson and Clemson, and win the ACC title to make a second College Football Playoff appearance in three years.
Worst-case scenario: Maguire isn’t the answer at quarterback, and Deondre Francois has growing pains as the starter. The Seminoles lose to Clemson and lose the ACC Atlantic. Miami and Mark Richt break through with an upset, and Jim McElwain and Florida get revenge for 2015’s 27-2 loss. Suddenly, 2015 feels more like a trend than an aberration.
3. Michigan
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Michigan hired Jim Harbaugh to return the program to its former glory. So far, so good. In one year, Harbaugh doubled the Wolverines’ win total, going from five to 10 wins and grabbing attention all the way.
Year two of the Harbaugh era in Ann Arbor is even more promising. While Michigan needs to determine a replacement for graduated quarterback Jake Rudock, it returns 15 starters and adds a talented recruiting class led by defensive tackle Rashan Gary, the nation’s consensus top recruit, according to 247Sports.
While Penn State and Wisconsin come to Ann Arbor, the Wolverines must travel to Michigan State and Ohio State for crucial Big Ten East rivalry games.
Best-case scenario: Harbaugh takes the program to an even higher plane. Michigan gets revenge on the Spartans and Buckeyes, wins the Big Ten and rolls to a national title. Harbaugh’s Twitter feed is snarkier than ever.
Worst-case scenario: Rudock’s leadership is missed under center. Road losses at Michigan State and Iowa eliminate the Wolverines from the East title race before the finale at Ohio State, where Urban Meyer deals another humiliating blow to Michigan and Harbaugh’s ego. No amount of subtweeting can fix this.
2. Clemson
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This time around, Clemson hopes to finish the drill. The Tigers broke through onto the national stage in 2015, beginning the season 14-0 and staying No. 1 from the first College Football Playoff Top 25 up to the national title game before losing 45-40 to Alabama.
Dabo Swinney’s group will return 11 starters but only three on defense, where six underclassmen declared early for the NFL draft. The key will be quarterback Deshaun Watson, the third-place finisher in the Heisman Trophy voting. He became the first player in FBS history to pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in the same season. Watson also gets back one of his top weapons in receiver Mike Williams, who redshirted after suffering a broken bone in his neck on the first series of the 2015 opener against Wofford.
The schedule is manageable. A prime-time opener at Auburn is questionable, but Clemson is clearly the more talented team. The toughest game will be an Oct. 29 trip to Florida State; the winner of this game has won the ACC Atlantic every year since 2009.
Best-case scenario: Clemson rolls through its schedule unbeaten, takes down the Seminoles and this time wins the program’s first national title since 1981.
Worst-case scenario: An improved Florida State team gets revenge on the Tigers in Tallahassee. Clemson also is upset at Georgia Tech and watches as the Seminoles go to the College Football Playoff.
1. Alabama
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Alabama hired Nick Saban to restore the program's place as a national power. As he enters his 10th season in Tuscaloosa, he has done that and then some. Last season’s national title was Saban’s fourth at Alabama (and fifth overall), and the Crimson Tide will again be a title contender this fall while returning 11 starters from 2015’s team. The big question? Who’ll replace Jake Coker at quarterback. Cooper Bateman, David Cornwell and Blake Barnett battled through spring practice for the role without resolution.
Another concern is the status of All-America left tackle Cam Robinson, arrested last week on drug and weapons charges. If he misses any time, an offensive line already replacing its center and right tackle will be further destabilized.
Alabama’s schedule has some tough spots, starting with a high-profile neutral-site opener against Southern California in Arlington, Texas. Sept. 17 brings a trip to Ole Miss, which owns two consecutive victories over the Tide. Alabama also must travel to Tennessee and then LSU on Nov. 5.
Best-case scenario: Saban’s crew gets sweet revenge on the Rebels and marches through the slate unbeaten, shutting down Leonard Fournette and LSU. The Tide make their third consecutive College Football Playoff and give Saban one for the thumb with another national title.
Worst-case scenario: Ole Miss gets even further in Saban’s head with another upset of the Tide. LSU and Fournette run roughshod on the Alabama defense in Baton Rouge, and Tennessee gets a program-making win in Knoxville. Alabama makes the Citrus Bowl before a long offseason begins in Tuscaloosa.
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