Predicting the Winner of Each College Football Conference in 2016
The offseason is the time for optimism, so fans are looking ahead to the 2016 college football season with dreams of at least a conference championship.
But only 10 of the 128 Football Bowl Subdivision programs will eventually hoist their respective leagues' trophies. We're here to predict which schools will ultimately earn that opportunity, also including the opponent in the conference title game.
Although a championship generally means more nationally for a Power Five faction, "Group of Five" teams are vying for the spot in a New Year's Six bowl game.
For ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC squads, though, a conference championship is merely a necessary step toward claiming a spot in the College Football Playoff.
American
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Houston's primary appeal is the combination of head coach Tom Herman and dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. After all, the Cougars boasted the nation's No. 10 scoring offense last season.
But the defense also finished with a top-20 mark. That balance is equally dangerous in the American Athletic Conference.
Navy and Temple must replace key pieces all over the roster, while Memphis will probably regress after losing quarterback Paxton Lynch. Some mixture of South Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut and Tulsa should move into the AAC's top four.
Still, it would be surprising if Houston didn't finish conference play undefeated. Herman and Co. need to upend Oklahoma and Louisville for a legitimate shot at the CFP, though.
Champion: Houston over South Florida
ACC
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The Atlantic Division has produced the ACC champion in five consecutive seasons. While the streak will probably extend to six, picking the winner is a tough decision.
Clemson and Florida State are regularly positioned near the top of preseason rankings, evidenced by the Nos. 2 and 3 spots in Bleacher Report's post-spring poll. Both teams have a weekend off before the Seminoles host the pivotal matchup on Oct. 29.
For now, the Tigers hold an advantage because we know what to expect from the offense. Deshaun Watson is back, and no major skill-position contributor departed.
Similarly, FSU returns its entire starting unit. However, it's unclear whether Sean Maguire or Deondre Francois will start. That decision may have a significant impact on the outcome.
North Carolina needs to replace Marquise Williams, but Duke lost quarterback Thomas Sirk, Miami and Virginia Tech have new coaches, and the Pittsburgh offense is a question mark. The Coastal's best is only slightly better than Louisville, the No. 3 team in the Atlantic.
Clemson clinches a spot in the CFP after defeating UNC—perhaps with a little less controversy this time.
Champion: Clemson over North Carolina
Big Ten
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Michigan State and Ohio State have dominated the Big Ten lately, but Michigan is receiving the most attention as the 2016 campaign approaches—and for good reason.
The Wolverines improved dramatically during Jim Harbaugh's initial year and return a majority of their starters. Conversely, the Spartans and Buckeyes are reloading talented rosters.
In all likelihood, the East Division will not be decided until the 12th outing of the season. Michigan must win in Columbus, but a stronger defense will help the Wolverines finally reach a Big Ten title game.
Iowa, Nebraska and Northwestern have the best chances to emerge from the West, since Wisconsin takes on each of MSU, OSU and U-M. Northwestern faces two, though, so the winner of Iowa and Nebraska's annual clash may head to Indianapolis. Huskers in an upset.
Champion: Michigan over Nebraska
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Big 12
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Oklahoma State and TCU should impact the Big 12 race, but Oklahoma and Baylor are safely on the conference's imaginary first tier.
Unfortunately in 2015, a neck injury kept Baylor quarterback Seth Russell from what was still a high-scoring affair between the Sooners and Bears. As long as he and Baker Mayfield are healthy, the Nov. 12 tilt should again determine the conference champion.
History may repeat itself, though. Oklahoma's units in the trenches are more experienced than Baylor's, and the difference between a win and loss will come down to a defensive play.
While slight, the Sooners have the early advantage.
Champion: Oklahoma over Baylor
Conference USA
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Every year, Group of Five conferences provide a couple of entertaining teams to watch because of explosive offenses. Western Kentucky, Bowling Green, East Carolina and Marshall have filled those roles lately, but Southern Miss will lead the bunch in 2016.
Although the departures of Mike Thomas, Casey Martin and Jalen Richard, as well as head coach Todd Monken, are significant, Nick Mullens is back. He amassed 4,476 yards and 38 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions last season.
On the other side of Conference USA, Western Kentucky has become a safe choice to contend. Even while breaking in a new quarterback, the program should complete the rematch of the 2015 title.
This time, however, Mullens and Co. out-offense the Hilltoppers and grab the C-USA crown.
Champion: Southern Miss over Western Kentucky
MAC
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Bowling Green lost head coach Dino Babers, but the East Division in the MAC isn't particularly strong. Ohio and Akron will have the best chance to unseat the Falcons.
The West, on the other hand, is loaded with contenders.
Northern Illinois has claimed three straight division titles, while Toledo, Western Michigan and Central Michigan each finished with 6-2 conference marks in 2015. But no coach has stockpiled like WMU's P.J. Fleck.
After managing one victory in his first season, Fleck has helped the Broncos to consecutive eight-win campaigns. This year, in addition to hosting Northern Illinois and Toledo, Western avoids regular-season crossover against both Bowling Green and Ohio.
The schedule aligns perfectly for a run to the MAC championship, where a beatable Bowling Green squad awaits.
Champion: Western Michigan over Bowling Green
Mountain West
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The Mountain Division was absolute chaos in 2015. We enjoy chaos. Five teams ended with a 5-3 or better conference mark, and Air Force's 6-2 clip earned the crown.
But the former powerhouse is coming back. Boise State returns most of what was an inconsistent yet dynamic offense, headlined by versatile weapon Jeremy McNichols and wideout Thomas Sperbeck.
San Diego State should cruise to the conference championship—no matter if the Aztecs lose on the road to Nevada. Their defense will probably rank among the best in the Mountain West.
Boise State's attack will be even better, however. The inefficiency of 2015 may occasionally appear while the Broncos adapt to another new coordinator, but the offense's talent can overpower SDSU.
Champion: Boise State over San Diego State
Pac-12
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Stanford, Oregon, Washington and Washington State each have a realistic shot to claim the North, while USC and UCLA must fend off each other as well as a pesky Utah team.
All seven of those squads are above-average units, but is that their ceiling? Is any program clearly leading the bunch? Three months away from the regular-season opener, the answer is uncertain. Stanford and USC are likely in the best shape.
The conference seems destined to beat up on each other all year, though. That parity results in entertaining football, but it's a problem for the Pac-12's playoff hopes.
Barring a surprising 11-1 or undefeated campaign, the champion will fall short of the CFP. Stanford heads to the Rose Bowl for the fourth time in five seasons.
Champion: Stanford over USC
SEC
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The Third Saturday in October is an important clash, but Alabama and Tennessee might have a second meeting in 2016.
After being a 4th-and-14 away from the SEC East crown last season, the Vols are poised to appear in the conference championship for the first time since 2007. Florida and Georgia are the primary adversaries for Tennessee's pursuit.
In the West, the division is a three-team race among Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU. Until proved otherwise, though, the Crimson Tide hold the edge. The Rebels and Tigers haven't managed to avoid bad conference losses late in the season recently.
Alabama probably won't finish undefeated, but Nick Saban has directed the program to consecutive College Football Playoff appearances with one-loss records. Make it three.
Champion: Alabama over Tennessee
Sun Belt
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Appalachian State, Arkansas State and Georgia Southern are the leading candidates in the Sun Belt. Any other team claiming the championship would be a surprise.
Currently, the Mountaineers are a small step in front because of quarterback Taylor Lamb and running backs Marcus Cox and Jalin Moore. Chad Voytik's transfer to Arkansas State brought the Red Wolves back to the forefront despite losing Fredi Knighten, Michael Gordon, Tres Houston and J.D. McKissic.
Unfortunately for us, the programs are not slated to meet during the regular season. Both will challenge Georgia Southern, which can be the ultimate spoiler in Arkansas State's chase for a championship.
Appalachian State travels to Georgia Southern on Oct. 27. As long as the Mountaineers win that Thursday night, the conference is in their control.
Champion: Appalachian State over Georgia Southern
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
