Hits and Misses of the Las Vegas SEC College Football Win Totals
Are you making a trip out to the oasis in the desert in Southern Nevada this summer?
Congratulations, you can now place win total bets on some of the best college football programs in the country.
The Golden Nugget released selected over/under win total (via Covers.com) on Thursday, and—in a slight shock—Tennessee is picked to have the most regular-season wins in the conference at 10.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
| Tennessee | 10 |
| Alabama | 9.5 |
| LSU | 9.5 |
| Georgia | 8.5 |
| Florida | 8 |
| Ole Miss | 7.5 |
| Auburn | 7 |
What are some hits and misses of the first wave of win totals?
Hit: Tennessee Hype Is Justified
The first thing that jumps out of the Golden Nugget's numbers is the fact that Tennessee is pegged to have more wins than any other team in the conference, including two-time conference and defending national champion Alabama.
Say what?
After you get over the initial shock, take a step back from the keyboard, avoid the temptation to hit the comment section with smoking hot takes and understand that a 10-win season is the logical next step for the Vols.
They finished 8-4 in the regular season last year before winning their bowl game, had late leads in losses to Alabama, Florida and Oklahoma, return essentially everybody on both sides of the football and get the Crimson Tide and Gators at home.
Ten wins isn't a pipe dream, it should be the logical next step for head coach Butch Jones—who has improved every year since taking over in 2013.
Despite that, Jones doesn't want to focus too much on the past.
"Each team is different," he said earlier this month at the College Football Hall of Fame. "That's what makes college football very exciting and very special. Each year is a new year and each team is a new team. That's why this is 'Team 120.' There are opportunities for growth and development and roles change."
Growth is the key, because the Vols already posted a defense that finished second nationally in third-down defense (27.6 percent) according to cfbstats.com, upgraded with defensive coordinator Bob Shoop, returned potential All-Americans at every level (defensive end Derek Barnett, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and cornerback Cam Sutton) and has one of the best multidimensional rushing attacks in the country with quarterback Joshua Dobbs and running backs Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara.
Tennessee hasn't been picked to win the SEC East at media days since 2005 and has been picked higher than fourth once since 2010—last year when it was picked (and finished) second.
This is the year for the Vols, and Vegas knows it.
Miss: No Dead Heat in the West
Another major shock in the win totals from the Golden Nugget is Alabama sitting at 9.5 wins for the regular season, tied with LSU as the highest mark of the listed teams from the SEC West.
If you want to say that 10-2 for Alabama in the regular season is a successful season considering the massive roster turnover the Tide faces this year, OK. That's the floor that head coach Nick Saban has established in Tuscaloosa, and an over/under of 9.5 suggests that some oddsmakers expect this to be a serious rebuilding year by Alabama standards.
Meanwhile, LSU is on the other side of the coin.
Until proved otherwise—and it wasn't proved in the spring game or by any of the coaching or roster decisions during the offseason—head coach Les Miles is still going to implement the same ultraconservative offensive philosophy that nearly got him fired last year, and makes it difficult for the Tigers to keep up in high-scoring games when the running game is slowed.
We saw that last year when teams stacked the box in November to slow down Leonard Fournette and the Tigers dropped three of their last four regular-season SEC games.
And this is the team that's considered the co-favorite in the West? Nope.
Alabama hired Lane Kiffin to run the offense prior to the 2014 season because Saban knew that, at times, you have to win games 45-42 in this day and age of exotic offense. LSU has refused to accept that. Until it does, there's no way the Tigers should be considered an equal to Alabama—a team that they've lost five straight to.
Miss: No Love For Ole Miss
Whether it's due to NCAA distractions or high-profile roster turnover, it appears that Las Vegas is banking on the public assuming Ole Miss is going to take a massive step back.
Don't fall into that trap.
Ole Miss is still loaded defensively with studs like linebacker DeMarquis Gates, safety Tony Conner, tackle Breeland Speaks and end Marquis Haynes.
Offensively, the line of scrimmage might be a concern in the post-Laremy Tunsil era. But injuries and suspensions have made that a fact of life for head coach Hugh Freeze for two years running. Sure, Ole Miss will miss wide receiver Laquon Treadwell, but with Quincy Adeboyejo, Damore'ea Stringfellow, Van Jefferson, Damarkus Lodge and a stellar incoming class at wide receiver, there are enough "No. 2" wide receivers to help quarterback Chad Kelly finish his career strong.
Even if Ole Miss doesn't contend for the SEC West title, an over/under win total of 7.5 seems insanely low for a program that has recruited well even after the stars from the 2013 class arrived on campus.
Hit: For Once, Georgia Hype is Tempered
With new head coach Kirby Smart in town, it appears that Vegas has hit the reset button on Georgia this year—one year after former head coach Mark Richt didn't live up to the SEC media days prediction of his program winning the SEC East.
A win total of 8.5 seems exactly right for a team that has concerns along both lines of scrimmage, will either start or ease in a true freshman quarterback, has a superstar running back who's coming back from a serious knee injury and a mysterious group of wide receivers who have yet to break out.
"Excited about 'em," Smart said of his wide receivers earlier this month at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Challenge. "We've got some big guys, and we've got some small guys. We've got some big guys coming in and some fast guys coming in. We've got some small, quick guys on the roster.
"I think that [offensive coordinator Jim] Chaney has done a great job and [wide receivers coach James] Coley have done a great job getting those guys better," Smart continued. "We've got to take we've got and get better, and I'm happy with where they are."
Georgia has reached nine regular-season wins in each of the last two seasons, so setting the win total at 8.5 in a clear transition year makes sense.
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report, as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
