Bold Summer Predictions for 2017 College Football Recruiting Trail
The 2017 college football recruiting cycle reaches a new phase in coming weeks as spring turns into summer. University visits and on-campus camps annually alter the landscape as top prospects work their way toward a verbal pledge.
Commitments and decommitments will occur in bunches before fall arrives and these recruits begin their final high school season. Few recruiting outcomes are assured this far away from national signing day so unexpected twists and turns are a routine part of the process as February approaches.
While many of these surprises are difficult to anticipate, we've assessed several of the recruiting scene's trending storylines to project some possible developments that could command headlines this summer.
The Big Ten Will Continue to Outpace the SEC in Class Rankings
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SEC domination has been a consistent component of national signing day throughout the decade. The Alabama Crimson Tide have led the way with six consecutive No. 1 recruiting classes in composite rankings but Nick Saban has plenty of in-conference competition for elite talent.
At least five SEC programs reached February with a top-10 overall class in each of the past four cycles, headlined by a 2014 flurry that saw seven schools land in that mix. It isn't difficult to decipher how this recruiting success correlates to the field, as the conference has claimed eight of the past 10 national championships.
We're still more than eight months shy of national signing day, but Alabama is again within striking distance of the country's top-ranked class, and is joined in the current top 10 by Georgia and Mississippi State. Other conference contemporaries such as LSU, Tennessee and Auburn are bound to pick up steam as things progress, but at this stage, the SEC isn't exactly outshining everyone else.
Instead, it's the Big Ten Conference making its presence known with nine schools carrying top-25 classes. No other conference features more than five universities on that list and there's reason to believe that several Big Ten teams have staying power in the upper echelon of recruiting rankings.
Ohio State, already leading the nation with 12 blue-chip (4/5-star prospects) commitments, is in excellent position to stockpile more elite talent and will be tough to top on signing day. Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh landed a top-five 2016 class to cap off his first full recruiting cycle in Ann Arbor and expectations for a repeat performance are warranted.
Iowa, a surprise College Football Playoff contender last season, is enjoying an overwhelmingly successful cycle and presently resides in top-10 rankings with a 5-star prospect on board. Nebraska is also on a roll and looks primed to add more premier pieces to an impressive class.
Meanwhile, relative conference newcomers Maryland and Rutgers are well on the way toward signing their most impressive classes since joining the Big Ten in 2014.
It all adds up to what should be a rewarding summer across the board for Big Ten teams. When fall arrives, the conference could remain a stride ahead of the SEC in class rankings, with the Buckeyes and Wolverines battling for pole position.
Cal Will Emerge as a Major Contender for 5-Star QB Tate Martell
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Questions continue to swirl around what will happen next in the lengthy, whirlwind recruitment of top-rated dual-threat quarterback Tate Martell. He entered the national recruiting spotlight in middle school, when former Washington Huskies head coach Steve Sarkisian extended him an offer before he entered eighth grade.
Now, four years later, there are more eyes on Martell than ever.
He verbally committed to Washington in middle school before backing off that pledge as a sophomore. Texas A&M pulled him into its class last August and, after losing two former 5-star quarterback recruits to transfers, the Aggies still seemed to be in solid shape for Martell until their relationship eroded and ended with a decommitment in May.
That decision essentially activated the reboot button in his recruitment, setting the stage for an intriguing series of official visits this fall. We rarely witness a 5-star passer push this process beyond their senior season but that may ultimately be the case with Martell.
Ohio State, who welcomed him to campus earlier this year, is now the leader in 247Sports' crystal ball projections for both Martell and his close friend/5-star receiver Tyjon Lindsey. Urban Meyer has accomplished a lot in his career with creative, mobile quarterbacks like Martell, who is 28-0 with 6,182 total yards and 86 touchdowns at Las Vegas powerhouse Bishop Gorman.
Unlike Texas A&M, where Martell anticipated a strong opportunity to start as a true freshman, the Buckeyes boast significant young talent at quarterback behind starter J.T. Barrett, who could return to campus in 2017. UCLA is a possibility, considering his Southern California background, but our attention shifts north to Berkeley, where the Golden Bears could become a major contender here.
Former Aggies offensive coordinator Jake Spavital—a guiding force behind the Texas A&M commitment—is now calling plays at Cal, a program that just produced the No. 1 NFL draft pick in quarterback Jared Goff. Cal could be looking at a one-and-done situation behind center this season with Texas Tech graduate transfer Davis Webb, opening the door for Martell to arrive on campus with a realistic chance to earn snaps from Day One.
New Georgia Regime Will Surge into Its First Season in Athens
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Kirby Smart was an instrumental figure in Alabama's on-field and recruiting success when he served as defensive coordinator under head coach Nick Saban. Now that he's in charge of his own SEC powerhouse at Georgia, he appears primed to maintain national signing day momentum in Athens.
His staff closed extremely strong with limited time remaining in the 2016 cycle. The Bulldogs kept grips on coveted Mark Richt quarterback commit Jacob Eason, beat out a crowded group of contenders for No. 1 overall tight end Isaac Nauta and capped things off with a late commitment from 5-star athlete Mecole Hardman Jr.
Before these 2016 cycle successes were sewn up, Smart already started assembling his 2017 haul with December pledges from No. 2 safety Richard LeCounte III and No. 7 inside linebacker Breon Dixon. This duo has since been joined by seven other athletes—most notably quarterback Jake Fromm and cornerback William Poole III—in a class that rates sixth nationally in composite class rankings.
Smart and a staff loaded with highly regarded assistants are likely to enhance this group with multiple pivotal pickups before the season starts. Georgia has sights set on several top-tier talents, headlined by cornerbacks DeAngelo Gibbs and Jamyest Williams, running backs D'Andre Swift and Cam Akers, athlete JaCoby Stevens, linebacker Nate McBride and edge rusher Robert Beal.
Throughout the camp circuit this spring, prospect feedback has been extremely positive when conversations shift to the Bulldogs, regardless of venue.
"Coach Smart is doing some great things with the program right now. I believe they're up-and-coming," Swift, a 5-star Philadelphia recruit, told Bleacher Report.
Among all of his SEC foes, Saban could face the biggest challenge for conference recruiting supremacy from his former coordinator.
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Washington Will Put Itself in Position to Sign Nation's Top Two Uncommitted OTs
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Expectations are mounting in Seattle as Huskies head coach Chris Petersen approaches his third season with the program. Washington has appeared in six straight bowls but the stage may be set for an elevated status among Pac-12 contenders, strengthened by back-to-back top-30 recruiting classes.
Petersen has his team in a similar situation in the 2017 cycle, with Washington sitting at No. 23 nationally and No. 2 among Pac-12 programs in composite class rankings. The group is led by defensive lineman Marlon Tuipulotu, tight end Hunter Bryant and receiver Terrell Bynum, who are each considered top-20 prospects at their respective position.
Bynum may not even be the Huskies' biggest pickup from Southern California powerhouse St. John Bosco High School, where Wyatt Davis warrants widespread attention. Rated No. 4 overall among offensive tackles, the 6'5", 310-pound prospect recently enjoyed a positive experience at Washington and is expected to return in June with his parents, per Ruth Robbins of 247Sports.
The Huskies seem to be in excellent position to at least make Davis' anticipated preseason cut to five favorites and arguably merit attention as his top West Coast landing spot. He is close friends with Bynum and 2016 Washington signee Sean McGrew.
Closer to home, the Huskies are also firmly in the mix for fellow 5-star offensive tackle Foster Sarell. The 6'6", 320-pound blocker, rated No. 2 among tackles and No. 5 overall in composite rankings, is Washington's priority in-state target from Graham Kapowsin High School.
Sarell, who is also weighing offers from schools such as Stanford and Notre Dame, landed a scholarship offer from the Huskies as a freshman. He immediately emerged as a primary concern for Petersen upon the coach's arrival from Boise State.
Each of these recruitments could last deep into the winter but we expect Washington to situate itself well for both elite linemen in the months to come.
Nebraska Will Complete Sweep of Calabasas High School's Star Trio
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Nebraska has been on a roll recruiting California prospects. The Cornhuskers reeled in quarterback Patrick O'Brien, defensive back Lamar Jackson and receiver Derrion Grim from the Golden State last signing day.
Head coach Mike Riley may be in position to match that total when 5-star cornerback Darnay Holmes elects to announce his collegiate intentions. If he chooses Nebraska, it would give the Cornhuskers a trio of blue-chip recruits from Los Angeles County's Calabasas High School.
Quarterback Tristan Gebbia and receiver Keyshawn Johnson Jr.—both 4-star prospects—pledged to the program earlier this spring. The Calabasas crew has spent significant time together on campus and Holmes already expressed plans to attend Nebraska's Sept. 17 game against Oregon, according to Omaha.com.
The 5'10", 190-pound playmaker is rated No. 1 overall among 2017 cornerbacks so sealing the deal will be no easy feat. His other suitors include UCLA, Ohio State and Stanford.
Gebbia and Johnson have been campaigning for other top Cornhuskers targets to join a class currently listed at No. 16 in composite rankings. You can imagine the sales pitches are coming in heavy doses for their teammate, who could be tasked with top coverage duties in Lincoln as a true freshman.
Presence of No. 1 Recruit Najee Harris Won't Prevent Alabama from Adding RB
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More than a half-decade atop national recruiting rankings has helped the rich get richer in Tuscaloosa. Alabama head coach Nick Saban has assembled unique depth throughout a roster loaded with former high school All-Americans.
Sustained success in the offensive backfield provides a prime example of this wealth. Standout Saban era rushers include Trent Richardson, T.J. Yeldon, Glen Coffee, Eddie Lacy and Heisman Trophy winners Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry.
If the "next man up" mentality is plainly apparent anywhere in college football, it's in this chain of Crimson Tide running backs. With Henry embarking on his NFL career with Tennessee Titans, a new crop of former coveted recruits is ready to step up and seize the spotlight.
Whoever ultimately commands the bulk of carries in 2016 certainly shouldn't rest on their laurels, as No. 1 overall prospect Najee Harris is set to arrive on campus next year. The 6'2", 220-pound California product, who rushed for 5,000 yards and 59 touchdowns over the past two seasons, is widely considered the most impressive running back prospect since LSU star Leonard Fournette was in high school.
He pledged to Alabama as a sophomore and remains on board, despite constant attention from schools such as USC, UCLA, Michigan and Ohio State. Still, don't expect other running back recruits to shy away from an opportunity due to fear of competition.
Players who sign with Aalabama understand the path to playing time can require patience, and must balance the possibility of spending seasons on the sidelines with consistent national title contention and eventual long looks from professional scouts.
The Tide are in the mix for multiple top-tier rushers despite Harris' presence and could pull one into the class before September rolls around. Notable options who've reciprocated interest include Anthony McFarland Jr., D'Andre Swift, Travis Etienne and former Alabama commit Cam Akers.
Michigan Will Expand Pipeline to New Jersey Powerhouse Paramus Catholic
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Several developments highlighted Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh's first full recruiting cycle in Ann Arbor, but none proved more important than his program's immense success in New Jersey. The Wolverines signed six Garden State standouts in 2016, including three considered top-200 recruits and No. 1 overall prospect Rashan Gary.
At the expense of in-state Rutgers and a Penn State program that's traditionally done very well recruiting top New Jersey talent, Michigan moved in and took over. Much of this effort was spearheaded by linebackers/special teams coach Chris Partridge, who previously served as head coach at Paramus Catholic High School.
Gary, a Paramus Catholic product, was courted to Michigan in large part by Partridge. Just two years earlier, former Wolverines head coach Brady Hoke landed prized Paramus Catholic athlete Jabrill Peppers.
Now another pair of Partridge's former pupils are in the spotlight. Defensive tackle Corey Bolds and linebacker Drew Singleton each have Michigan offers and have spent substantial time at Wolverines facilities.
Both players are strongly projected to sign with Michigan in 247Sports' Crystal Ball, though Clemson in particular presents a potential alternative landing spot. Still, it will be difficult for any coaching staff to get the better of Harbaugh and company.
"I'm very close with Coach Partridge," Bolds told Bleacher Report. "He's someone I can text or call anytime, and it doesn't have to be about football. He's there to listen and help me any way he can. [The recent New Jersey signees] are like big brothers to me, and I can always look to them for advice. ... It would be pretty hard to say no."
At Least One Elite 11 Finalist Will Change Their College Commitment
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Just as on game days, quarterbacks prove paramount in every recruiting cycle. The pledge of a blue-chip passer provides promises of future offensive explosiveness and can serve as a rallying cry to fellow recruits looking to team up with a potential team leader.
Quarterbacks are often among the earliest commitments each year and it's become commonplace for prized passers to announce college plans before their junior high school season. This can be a double-edged sword, as it's a huge momentum-builder for coaching staffs but can also result in programs feeling burned later in the process.
Coaching changes and simple alterations to an athlete's collegiate outlook can lead quarterbacks to call commitment audibles that quickly change the fortunes of a recruiting class. We've seen this story play out repeatedly among premier Elite 11 contenders.
Recent examples include Blake Barnett (Notre Dame to Alabama), Jarrett Stidham (Texas Tech to Baylor) Brandon Wimbush (Penn State to Notre Dame), Feleipe Franks (LSU to Florida) and Dwayne Haskins (Maryland to Ohio State).
History will repeat itself before national signing day and perhaps as early as this summer. Martell set the tone this month with his decommitment from Texas A&M, and speculation will swirl around others as teams quest for quarterback talent.
IMG Academy (Florida) playmaker Kellen Mond may be the most pivotal prospect in this department. It would be understandable if his commitment to Baylor is wavering given the current circumstances surrounding university administration, and the nation's No. 4 dual-threat quarterback has been on the receiving end of enhanced interest from programs such as Ohio State and Auburn.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
