The Most Underrated and Overrated CFB Players in Each Power 5 Conference
It's a natural inclination to place value on things, and there are few places where this is as prevalent as in sports. But in the process of trying to assess who is good, who is not so good and who is the best, these evaluations can sometimes become skewed.
Before you know it, some athletes end up under- or overrated. College football is not immune to this process, especially during the long offseason in which past results get embellished and future expectations can't help but be raised.
What we end up with are players who, though no fault of their own, get far more (or less) attention than normal. In the end, many perform just as expected, though it's not surprising to see some fail to meet the hype while others drastically exceed it.
ACC, Underrated: Austin Bryant, DE, Clemson
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It's becoming an annual occurrence that Clemson has to rebuild its defensive line because of graduation and NFL departures. The Tigers replaced Vic Beasley and others after 2014 without much issue, as Shaq Lawson and Kevin Dodd continued their dominance up front.
Yet now that the 2015 crop has moved on, the hope for another seamless transition isn't as strong. That's because freshmen and sophomores are likely to fill three of Clemson's four starting spots, with only senior tackle Carlos Watkins representing the upperclassmen.
People shouldn't judge Austin Bryant on his numbers from a year ago, which his having to play behind future high NFL draft picks heavily influenced. Yet the 6'4", 265-pound end recorded 1.5 sacks and 2.5 tackles for loss as a true freshman who had enrolled early.
His big break came in the Orange Bowl. After Lawson was injured, Bryant was key to Clemson's pressure up front. Given the chance to be a starter in 2016, look for Bryant to excel.
ACC, Overrated: Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami
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Rated as the seventh-best pro-style quarterback prospect in the 2014 recruiting class, Brad Kaaya had the potential to be an effective passer for Miami at some point in his career. Few people thought that would translate to being the Hurricanes' opening-game starter as a true freshman.
Kaaya took that unexpected opportunity and ran with it, producing consecutive 3,000-yard passing seasons while starting 25 games in two campaigns. Now he enters his junior year as arguably the ACC's most experienced quarterback.
He's also the league's most overrated player, given a major boost in hype thanks to his new head coach. The pairing of Kaaya and Mark Richt has elevated the quarterback to another level, including into the first round of some 2017 mock NFL drafts. This is despite what Sports on Earth's Matt Brown referred to as "solid, modest numbers that are hardly attention-grabbing."
Kaaya may be benefiting early on from what's considered a rather uninspiring 2017 quarterback class, thus boosting his profile. If he can perform well under Richt's guidance, though, no one will care.
Big Ten, Underrated: LJ Scott, RB, Michigan State
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It's difficult to stand out in a platoon system, which is what Michigan State used at running back last year. The Spartans essentially replaced 2014 workhorse Jeremy Langford with three players (Gerald Holmes, Madre London and LJ Scott) who each had at least 110 carries.
It was Scott who got the most touches, as well as yards and scores, finishing with 699 yards and 11 touchdowns as a true freshman. His 4.79 yards-per-carry average was solid, nothing spectacular, and he only had one 100-yard game, though his extra effort to score the game-winning touchdown in the Big Ten title game was his most memorable contribution.
That was followed by a forgettable performance in MSU's shutout loss to Alabama in the Cotton Bowl, gaining just eight yards on six carries.
Scott enters 2016 in the same competition for touches, though the Spartans are more likely to lean on one player more than the others after last year's attack ranked 94th in rushing.
"Somebody will be the top dog," Scott told ESPN's Mark Rittenberg.
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Big Ten, Overrated: Jabrill Peppers, LB/DB, Michigan
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Jabrill Peppers, the stage is yours. Then again, it has been for two years.
Michigan signed the No. 1 overall player in the 2016 class in defensive tackle Rashan Gary, yet it's still Peppers who is garnering the most hype among Wolverines players. It has been that way since he arrived in 2014, though injuries shortened that first season, and last year, we saw him only scratch the surface of his talent.
Several position changes haven't helped, either. He came to Michigan as a safety but played mostly at cornerback as a redshirt freshman while also getting worked on offense and special teams. Now he's learning the linebacker spot, where new defensive coordinator Don Brown feels he's best-suited because he can impact more areas of the game.
"We’ve got to give this guy a bunch of jobs," Brown told Mark Snyder of the Detroit Free Press in early March.
Peppers may end up thriving in this new role, but for now, he remains a highly regarded player who has shown more promise than production.
Big 12, Underrated: Dede Westbrook, WR, Oklahoma
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As important as the quarterback is to an Air Raid passing offense, without effective wide receivers, the scheme just won't work. Oklahoma returned to this style in 2015 and thrived, aided by not just Baker Mayfield's arm and accuracy but also some veteran pass-catchers in Sterling Shepard and Durron Neal.
Dede Westbrook didn't get as much credit as those outgoing seniors, though he was second on the team with 46 catches for 743 yards along with four touchdowns. Now the veteran of the receiving corps, the former junior college transfer will be stepping into a much bigger role.
Westbrook made news this week for different reasons, however. According to Ryan Aber of the Oklahoman, Westbrook was arrested for criminal trespass in Texas on Monday.
Oklahoma has a long history of success at wide receiver, with Shepard one of five players to catch at least 200 passes in his career. Westbrook won't have that opportunity, as this is his second and final season with the Sooners, but he can still make his mark as the go-to target this fall.
Big 12, Overrated: Patrick Mahomes II, QB, Texas Tech
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Patrick Mahomes was the FBS leader in total offense in 2015, averaging 393 yards per game while accounting for 46 touchdowns. Yet because of Texas Tech's abysmal defense, that only translated to seven wins.
It might have been more if Mahomes didn't take it upon himself to do so much and as a result stub his own toe. He was intercepted 15 times on 573 attempts, which is only 2.6 percent of the time but still tied for third most in the country. He was also sacked 27 times, a high number for a dual-threat quarterback who scored 10 times on the ground.
"Neither his interception rate nor sack rate were bad, but both could improve," SB Nation's Bill Connelly wrote.
Mahomes threw for 4,653 yards last season as a sophomore, but he could have been so much better if he had taken the safe route on occasion. Instead, he tried to extend plays (resulting in sacks) or force throws (leading to interceptions). With the Red Raiders unable to stop anyone, defensively, they cannot afford to give away points on offense.
Pac-12, Underrated: Luke Falk, QB, Washington State
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It's almost a foregone conclusion that the quarterback in a Mike Leach-coached offense is going to put up big numbers, but how often is that passer considered one of the best in the country? Rarely.
Luke Falk could be the best QB Leach has ever had, but because of the system he operates out of, there has been a lack of praise pointed his way. It's almost assumed that someone who throws 50-plus times per game will lead FBS in passing (at 380.1 yards per game).
Yet Falk's more telling numbers come in the form of his accuracy and mistake avoidance. He completed 69.4 percent of his passes in 2015, which ranked second nationally, and after being intercepted seven times in 243 attempts as a redshirt freshman, he had only eight picks on 644 throws last year.
Pac-12, Overrated: Dakota Prukop, QB, Oregon
8 of 10Not all transfers are created equal, but when two have similar backgrounds, it's not surprising to have one compared to the other. That also extends to what's expected of them, and in the case of Dakota Prukop, he's got a lot to live up to.
After Vernon Adams Jr. managed to stand out with Oregon following his transfer from an FCS school, it's now on Prukop to do the exact same thing. The consensus is that shouldn't be a problem. Like Adams, he's coming from the FCS ranks (Montana State) and was a dual-threat passer. Unlike Adams—who didn't join the Ducks until August of last season—Prukop was a full participant in spring practice.
That's the gist of why NFL.com's Chase Goodbread ranked Prukop as the fourth-best impact transfer for 2016. He's in line to be Oregon's starter, but beyond that, there's no real guarantee of any success just because he was a standout at the lower level.
Part of what made Adams so intriguing was his success when facing FBS opponents while at Eastern Washington. Prukop's only comparable experience came in his first career start, as a sophomore in 2014 at Arkansas State, when he was 14-of-26 for 142 yards and two interceptions while being sacked four times in a 37-10 loss.
SEC, Underrated: Tim Williams, LB, Alabama
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The scouts and experts are well aware of what Tim Williams can do, but for the average college football fan, it's rare to know much about players who aren't at the top of a depth chart. But someone who was third at his position in 2015?
Tim Williams was behind Denzel Devall and Ryan Anderson at outside linebacker last year, yet he ended up finishing second on the team with 10.5 sacks. Playing almost exclusively on passing downs, Williams was able to pin his ears back and whip around the edge in his pursuit of the quarterback, leading to 12.5 tackles for loss among his 19 tackles.
Bleacher Report NFL draft expert Matt Miller raved about Williams' skills back in January, stating on Twitter that he might have been his highest-rated edge-rusher if he had opted to turn pro. Instead, he returned to Alabama for his senior year, where he'll get a chance to be a starter and also show he can be a complete player and not just a specialist.
"If Williams can develop into the latest all-around linebacking star at Alabama, he'll be a name to watch on awards lists and draft boards all season long," Bleacher Report's Justin Ferguson wrote.
SEC, Overrated: Joshua Dobbs, QB, Tennessee
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If it feels like you've been hearing about Joshua Dobbs forever, you're not alone. No player has received more attention in conjunction with Tennessee's gradual rise under coach Butch Jones than Dobbs, who has seemingly been projected for a breakout season every year of his career.
This was fueled by Dobbs' coming on as a spot starter down the stretch as a freshman and sophomore in 2013 and 2014, respectively, which made his first full season as starter in 2015 highly anticipated. Yet while he had a good junior year, with 2,291 passing yards and 15 touchdowns along with 11 rushing scores, it wasn't as strong as projected.
Adding to Dobbs' profile has been the constant mentions of his unique academic background—in case you missed it, he's majoring in aerospace engineering—and Jones' use of the phrase "CEO quarterback" to describe what he wants from him.
Now a senior, there's no better time than the present for Dobbs to put it all together. And with the Volunteers in line for a high preseason ranking, he'll need to live up to a career's worth of hype.
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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