What's at Stake in the 2016 NBA Lottery?
Every team participating in Tuesday night's 2016 NBA draft lottery enters the event with a combination of hope and dread, knowing that luck alone determines its fate.
But by a particularly wide margin, no team has more to lose than the Los Angeles Lakers.
Coming off their most pitiful season in franchise history—in which they finished with the league's most anemic defense, per NBA.com, and the second-worst record at 17-65—there's a 55.8 percent chance the Lakers land a top-three pick. That's meaningful, because thanks to the Steve Nash trade all the way back in 2012, if the pick falls any lower than that, they have to send it to the Philadelphia 76ers.
The bad consequences don't end there. If the Lakers send their first-round pick to the Sixers this year, then they also have to fork over their 2018 first-round pick (top-five protected) to the Orlando Magic. If L.A. is still really bad and keeps its 2018 pick, it becomes unprotected in 2019. But if the Lakers keep their first-rounder this year and in 2017 (also top-three protected), they only have to give the Magic their 2017 and 2018 second-round picks.
Regardless of what transpires Tuesday night, the Lakers have a ton of cap space, talented young assets and a refreshing new head coach in Luke Walton, but there's a lot at stake.
If the pingpong balls align in Los Angeles' favor, its rebuild will organically press on with another potentially elite prospect in the mix—another trade asset for a franchise that's gasping for All-Star-caliber talent.
If not, the Lakers are stripped of several valuable assets, as outlined above.
A canyon separates the Lakers' best- and worst-case scenarios, but several other teams will also spend Tuesday night with their heads between their knees. LSU's Ben Simmons and Duke's Brandon Ingram both appear to have franchise-sparking talent, and every team in attendance would love to add one of them.
Locking either into an affordable rookie-scale deal the same summer the salary cap jumps from $70 million to approximately $92 million, per USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt, is highly advantageous for whichever teams land in the top two. Once those two come off the board, the impact talent nosedives off a cliff. There are solid role players in the mix, but there may not be another All-Star.
Beyond the Lakers, here's a look at who the top two teams might be, as well as all that's at stake for the lottery's other participants.
1. Philadelphia 76ers (25.0 percent chance of landing No. 1 pick)
If all goes swimmingly for Philadelphia, brand-new president of basketball operations Bryan Colangelo can walk away with the first and fourth overall selections. The positive implications here are obvious.
First: There's a great chance the Sixers finally land the franchise player they've tortured themselves for these past few years. A top pick—which Philly has a 25 percent chance of getting—guarantees either Simmons or Ingram. The fourth pick means yet another highly coveted prospect would join the Sixers organization.
Teams across the league would then inquire about Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid, knowing full well the Sixers can't afford to overlap so many building blocks in their frontcourt.
The worst-case scenario? The Lakers keep their pick, and the Sixers fall to fourth overall.
Philadelphia has a bit of bonus protection: If the Sacramento Kings wind up with a higher pick than Philly in the top 10, the Sixers have the right to swap picks with them.
2. Los Angeles Lakers (19.9 percent)
See above.
3. Boston Celtics (15.6 percent, via Brooklyn Nets)
The Celtics find themselves in an incomparably beneficial situation. They have two first-round picks outside the lottery (Nos. 16 and 23), five second-round picks and the Brooklyn Nets' first choice (for the next three years). The Nets enter with the third-best chance to land a top-three pick (46.9 percent).
Obviously, grabbing Simmons or Ingram would be marvelous. But the Celtics are already good and have a solid core of productive contributors at several key positions who are locked into affordable long-term contracts.
Boston has enough cap space to afford two max deals this summer, and its franchise's spine is unbreakable iron, with arguably the most effective synergy between ownership, the front office and the coaching staff in the league.
The Celtics are in good shape no matter what happens, but—just like everybody else—a top-two pick would accelerate their journey to championship contention.
4. Phoenix Suns (11.9 percent)
The Suns aren't as big of a mess as many think. Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight and Devin Booker are a formidable backcourt combination—plus the Suns have plenty of cap space and an abundance of trade assets (including Bledsoe and Knight, who are locked into team-friendly long-term deals).
Lottery results won't dictate whether their future is bright or doomed. With their pick, the Suns have a 37.8 percent chance of landing in the top three and an 11.9 percent chance to get the top choice. The Suns also own the Washington Wizards' lottery pick, which currently sits at No. 13 with a 2.2 percent shot at leaping forward.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (8.8 percent)
If the Timberwolves win the lottery, they'll be closer to their first championship at some point in the next five years than at any other time in franchise history.
Karl-Anthony Towns—the unanimous NBA Rookie of the Year for 2015-16—may very well be the best basketball player in the world by 2020, and letting head coach Tom Thibodeau mold Andrew Wiggins and Simmons/Ingram as Minny's second and third options is a terrifying thought for the league's 29 other franchises.
There's an 8.8 percent chance they get the top choice, but even if they stay put at No. 5, the Timberwolves will find themselves in an enviable spot. They can either add another lottery pick to their talented young core or trade it for a known entity, such as Serge Ibaka, Danilo Gallinari or Danny Green.
6. New Orleans Pelicans (6.3 percent)
Similar to Minnesota's situation but to a slightly lesser extent, if the Pelicans land the top pick, watch out. Anthony Davis, age 23, and another potential star would terrorize the league for a long time. (There's a 6.3 percent chance this happens.)
If they don't win, oh well. The Pelicans will still have a top-10 selection and can either add a young talent to their rotation or package the pick with someone like Tyreke Evans (or Omer Asik in a universe where God is a Pelicans fan) for a quality veteran.
7. Denver Nuggets (4.3 percent, via pick swap with New York Knicks)
The Nuggets are in the middle of a full-on rebuild, whether they realize it or not.
With Emmanuel Mudiay as the franchise point guard and Nikola Jokic as the franchise center, they're already in decent shape. But winning the lottery would give them the undeniable franchise player they haven't had since Carmelo Anthony.
The Nuggets have a couple of ways to hit the jackpot: with their pick (1.9 percent) or by exercising the right to swap selections with the Knicks, who have a 4.3 percent chance at the No. 1 pick.
If they don't climb the ladder, selecting the best wing on the board isn't a bad consolation prize.
8. Sacramento Kings (1.9 percent)
The Kings were swindled last July, when they forfeited Nik Stauskas, Jason Thompson, Carl Landry, a 2018 first-round pick and swap rights for their 2016 and 2017 first-round choices to the 76ers for, um, cap space.
That deal lacked foresight, and it could come back to bite the Kings if they win this year's lottery and Philadelphia ends up in the third slot, necessitating a painful swap.
That said, it's a highly unlikely scenario, and it's also possible Sacramento lands in the top three below Philly, eliminating any incentive for switching slots.
Landing Simmons or Ingram would be an incredible coup for owner Vivek Ranadive, general manager Vlade Divac and new head coach Dave Joerger. It'd either be a franchise-altering moment that finally plants a lost organization on the right track or the end of a promising career before it even starts.
If they don't jump in the lottery, the Kings should be grateful to stay put in their current place at No. 8. There's a doomsday scenario hanging over their shoulder if three teams leapfrog them, bump them from eighth to 11th and then force them to surrender the pick to the Chicago Bulls. But the probability this occurs is microscopic.
9. Toronto Raptors (1.9 percent, via Knicks)
It's not every year a team in the Eastern Conference Finals gets to try its luck in the lottery, but thanks to the New York Knicks' infatuation with Andrea Bargnani in a trade back in 2013, the Raptors have a 6.8 percent chance of landing a top-three pick. (Toronto gets either the Knicks' selection or the Nuggets' pick—whichever is lower.)
This team is built to win now, so GM Masai Ujiri may be aggressive on the trade market with this pick regardless of where it lands. If Toronto loses DeMar DeRozan to free agency, this selection could be a great tool to replace him.
10. Milwaukee Bucks (1.8 percent)
Already stacked with three interchangeable swingmen who've yet to reach their prime (Khris Middleton, Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo), the Bucks are in desperate need of shooting. That's their top priority in the draft and free agency: to create as much space as possible for those three building blocks.
For that reason, should Milwaukee win the lottery it'd almost definitely take Ingram over Simmons. If not, this is another team that has few minutes to go around for the foreseeable future. If the Bucks think they can find better short- and long-term value by dealing the pick, they're in a good position to do so.
11. Orlando Magic (0.8 percent)
Given that they've been rebuilding for nearly five years and still don't have a legitimate franchise player to show for it, the Magic definitely wish their odds to win the lottery were higher than 0.8 percent.
If there's no movement, it's unclear how the 11th pick in this year's unimpressive class will move the needle. The Magic will instead rely on their cap space to lure at least one max-caliber player in free agency. If not, they could aggressively shop this pick alongside one of the young talents already on their roster.
12. Utah Jazz (0.7 percent)
The Jazz are on the verge of becoming a perennial playoff team; it'll be a shock if they stumble again next season and fail to qualify.
There's only a 2.5 percent chance Utah leapfrogs into the top three, but it doesn't necessarily need a top pick to find future success.
With Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood, Alec Burks, Trey Lyles and (possibly) Dante Exum already locked into place as key contributors moving forward, adding another rotation player with the 12th slot is fine.
13. Phoenix Suns (0.6 percent, via Washington Wizards)
See above.
14. Chicago Bulls (0.5 percent)
It's unclear where the Bulls organization wants go from here. Does it trade Jimmy Butler and start from the bottom? Does it aggressively shop Derrick Rose's expiring contract and go on a shopping spree with all that newfound cap space? (Both New York teams could show interest, as the Knicks and Nets each need an athletic starting point guard.)
What we do know is the lottery may not be a pleasurable experience for the Bulls with only a 0.5 percent chance of landing the top overall pick. There's a great chance they land the 14th overall choice and momentarily find themselves smack dab in the middle of the league, with no obvious path from mediocrity.
Obviously, a move into the top three would make their path much more clear. But the Bulls can't count on that to happen.
Statistics used in this article that relate to lottery odds and percentages can be found at Tankathon.com. Salary-cap figures via Basketball Insiders.
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