NBA Finals 2016: Championship Odds and Predictions for Remaining Teams
There are only five teams still in the hunt for the 2016 NBA championship, and that number will be four following Sunday's Game 7 between the Toronto Raptors and the Miami Heat.
LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers were quick to book a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals, defeating the Atlanta Hawks in four games. The Cavs have had plenty of time to recover since clinching the series on May 8. They await the winner of the Raptors-Heat series.
The Golden State Warriors, favorites for the Larry O'Brien Trophy, are still in the hunt. They have a tough task ahead of them, however, in the Oklahoma City Thunder, who dispatched a 67-win San Antonio Spurs team in six games.
Here's a look at the updated championship odds for the remaining playoff teams, followed by a quick preview and prediction of what's to come in this postseason.
| Golden State Warriors | 10-17 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 5-2 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 6-1 |
| Toronto Raptors | 66-1 |
| Miami Heat | 75-1 |
Odds are according to Odds Shark and updated as of Sunday, May 15, at 11 a.m. ET.
Predictions for Remaining Teams
Judging by the long odds, the outcome of Sunday's contest between the Raptors and Heat is practically inconsequential—at least as far as the NBA championship is concerned. Both teams are heavy underdogs to win the 2015-16 season title.
Not only have they taken turns beating each other up in this ugly (yet thrilling) series, but they will be forced to take on a well-rested Cavaliers squad that finished atop the Eastern Conference standings this season.
Despite playing without center Hassan Whiteside since the third game of the series—to say nothing of Chris Bosh's absence with blood clots since February—the Heat have still managed to force a Game 7 and seem poised to pull off the upset on the road on Sunday.
Goran Dragic's slasher mentality propelled him to 30 points in Miami's 103-91 win in Game 6, complementing a fine all-around performance from 34-year-old backcourt mate Dwyane Wade.
Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan combined for 59 points in Game 6 on 20-of-48 shooting from the field (41.7 percent). Those shooting numbers wouldn't usually be something to get excited about, but they count as hopeful in a postseason that has seen some truly dreadful shooting from the duo.
The Raptors frontcourt has struggled to supply any offense, with DeMarre Carroll slumping and Bismack Biyombo starting in place of an injured Jonas Valanciunas. If either Lowry or DeRozan lays too many bricks in Game 7, the Heat will take the series.
Miami will win Game 7, but the Cavs should quickly cut it down in the conference finals. James is on a mission to bring woeful Cleveland a championship, and Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue noted his superstar hasn't had to overextend himself to get his team to this point, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin:
"LeBron is letting the game come to him. When he wants to be aggressive and he sees fit to be aggressive when the teams have a good run or whatever they may have, then he just takes over the game ... And with Kyrie [Irving] and Kevin [Love] playing at a high level, he can take a lot of mileage off of his body, reduce his [usage] rate and just kind of seeing and figuring out the flow of the game.
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The Cavaliers are 8-0 in the playoffs so far. This beat-up Miami squad could steal a game, but it should be a rather quick and painless series for Cleveland.
As for the epic Western Conference showdown between Golden State and Oklahoma City, fans can expect a brilliant series and hope for a classic one. FiveThirtyEight's Neil Paine crunched the numbers and reported it's the strongest conference finals matchup in quite some time:
"So NBA fans are going to be deprived of that long-anticipated Warriors-Spurs battle. But look on the bright side: the Warriors-Thunder series is also shaping up to be a classic. In fact, according to the pre-series Elo ratings (which estimate each team’s strength at any moment), it’s the single best-looking conference finals matchup since 1984.
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Russell Westbrook is averaging a double-double per game this postseason with 25.5 points and 10.8 assists on average. He sometimes takes too many shots, but the Thunder can count on Kevin Durant (27.4 points on 43.5 percent shooting) and surprisingly strong three-point numbers from Serge Ibaka to supplement Westbrook's buzz-saw approach to offense.
The Warriors are a juggernaut in their own right, as they took out the Portland Trail Blazers in five games despite the talismanic Stephen Curry missing part of the series.
Klay Thompson is posting 27.2 points per game this postseason, and Draymond Green has been brilliant, averaging a double-double per contest.
Andrew Bogut and Green will be crucial in this series, as they will have to frustrate the likes of Ibaka, Steven Adams and Enes Kanter down low. Losing the battles in the paint will be deadly with Durant and Westbrook working their usual magic from the outside.
Oklahoma City's unheralded defense held up well against the Spurs, but Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes noted the Warriors aren't likely to be as easy to contain:
"OKC looked stouter on defense against the Spurs because San Antonio gradually stopped moving the ball and attacked in isolation far too often. That's no way to exploit a defense that, when stretched, tends to come apart at the seams. The Spurs averaged just 16.7 assists in their last three games against the Thunder, a far cry from the 24.5 they posted during the regular season.
Golden State won't stagnate so easily.
The Warriors are currently moving the ball better than anyone, leading all postseason teams with 336.9 passes per game. They only ranked seventh in that category during the regular season, but they topped the NBA in secondary assists, potential assists and points created via assists.
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Curry's health permitting, the Warriors should take this series in seven hard-fought games.
Once Golden State gets past Oklahoma City, the rematch of last year's NBA Finals is on. Kevin Love missed the entire series, while Kyrie Irving went down with a fractured kneecap in Game 1.
Herculean performances from James helped an undermanned Cleveland squad take that series to six games, but the Warriors were too much to overcome.
Andre Iguodala's NBA Finals MVP performance underscored the brilliant team effort and unparalleled depth that brought the Warriors their first NBA championship since 1975.
The Cavaliers are in a better position to succeed this year, but the Warriors are also an improved team. Curry, Thompson, Green and the rest didn't bust their way through a 73-win season to come up short of immortality. They'll overcome some early-series fatigue to claim the crown in six games.
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