Why the SEC West Could Be Headed for a Coaching Overhaul Soon

Depending on where you live, the term “The Big One” can have a different meaning.

On the West Coast, you’re probably talking about the fear everyone has, and tries to ignore, about a major earthquake along the San Andreas fault. Some believe it to be inevitable, others claim it's only hypothetical, but either way, Hollywood likes making disaster movies based on the worst-case scenario.

In the Southeast, the term is more commonly used to describe NASCAR races at Talladega Superspeedway. Crashes are pretty common at the track, but what really packs in fans and has them on the edge of their seats is the wait for the wreck that takes out a good part of the race field. More often than not they don’t go home disappointed.

“The Big One” was also the nickname of the female velociraptor in the 1993 movie Jurassic Park. She’s the one the game warden, Robert Muldoon (played by Bob Peck), called “clever girl” right before being turned into a mid-afternoon snack.

Of course, the one thing that they all have in common is carnage, something college football’s Southeastern Conference knows well and might be looking at its own version of in the West Division.

We’re talking about a likely big shake-up in the coaching ranks, and similar to an earthquake, all the warning signs are prevalent.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Every coach in the division has a huge salary, roughly $4 million or more, according to USA Today’s coaching salary database. Every school has invested heavily in its football program with everything from stadium upgrades to weight rooms that are the envy of NFL teams.

Every team is expected to win, and win big.

Collectively, it’s impossible.

Even though we’re in the midst of unparalleled success for the division, with seven straight wins in the SEC Championship Game and seven national crowns since 2003, the expectations are even greater.

Each team in the SEC West was ranked at some point last season, and they all finished with a winning record.

But good isn’t good enough in the toughest division in college football, and fans aren’t paying top dollar to see their teams in the Birmingham, Belk, Texas, Music City or Liberty bowls.

They all want a ring collection like Nick Saban’s, only he’s still winning them on a regular basis.

School	Name	Hired	Record	SEC
Alabama	Nick Saban	2007	105-18	57-12
Auburn	Guz Malzahn	2013	27-13	13-11
Arkansas	Bret Bielema	2013	18-20	7-17
LSU	Les Miles	2005	112-32	61-27
Ole Miss	Hugh Freeze	2012	34-18	17-15
Miss. State	Dan Mullen	2009	55-35	26-30
Texas A&M	Kevin Sumlin	2012	36-16	17-15

Do you remember who else was a head coach in the league when Alabama hired Saban in 2007? In the East were Urban Meyer, Mark Richt, Rich Brooks, Steve Spurrier, Phillip Fulmer and Bobby Johnson, while the West had Houston Nutt, Tommy Tuberville, Les Miles, Ed Orgeron and Sylvester Croom.

The two schools that had yet to join the conference were coached by Dennis Franchione (Texas A&M) and Gary Pinkel (Missouri).

Except for Miles, they’ve all been replaced—although in fairness to Pinkel, his stepping down was due to a health issue—as the conference has averaged almost three coaching changes a year since 2008 (2.7 to be specific).

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

It even led to a reporter to ask Saban during the days leading up the 2015 SEC Championship Game if he felt responsible for so many coaches getting fired.

“Well, I’d be more concerned about, from my perspective, when we lose three games what’s going to happen to me,” was Saban’s immediate response.

He then gave a much longer answer about how coaching is also about teaching, developing players and preparing young men to be successful in life.  

“There’s some guys that have done a really, really good job of that in their programs if you look at their record of graduation rate, things like that, and they win nine games, and that’s not good enough,” he continued.

“I don’t have any idea of what anyone’s standard is for what they want to accomplish in their organization, what their expectation is. But I do think that there’s a lot of negative energy out there sometimes for whatever reasons get created as soon as you don’t have success. And I think you [the media] all set us up a little bit for that.”

Year	SEC	West
2008	3	3
2009	3	2
2010	3	0
2011	2	0
2012	4	3
2013	4	2
2014	1	0
2015	1	0
2016	3	0

Saban was referring to Georgia letting go of Richt after 15 years despite having a 145-51 record (83-37 in SEC play). But shortly thereafter, Georgia named the Alabama coach's defensive coordinator, Kirby Smart, the replacement. Former assistant Will Muschamp got the same position at South Carolina, and former Alabama offensive coordinator Jim McElwain got the job at Florida a year ago.

Every program in the East has changed coaches since 2013, which is when the last moves were made in the West.

There was recently a similar quiet time in the West, 2010-11, when the division saw no head coaching changes. The following two years, there were five moves in the division.

Of course, this is nothing new for the SEC. 

During the 1970s, Alabama compiled an incredible 103-16-1 record with eight SEC titles and three national championships under Paul “Bear” Bryant. Yet when LSU fired Charles McClendon in 1979 for not being able to beat Alabama, Auburn’s all-time winningest coach, Shug Jordan (176-83-6 from 1951 to 1975), famously said: “You go by that and they’ll have to fire us all.”

LSU nearly did the same thing last year, only to give Miles a last-minute reprieve that some believe only delayed the inevitable even though he’s won a national championship. Others remembered that after McClendon’s 18-year run, Jerry Stovall went 22-21-2 over the four subsequent seasons. 

But not every team can go 8-0 or 7-1 in league play or enjoy a 10-win season in 2016. Miles has to beat Alabama. Hugh Freeze is up to his neck in a scandal. Kevin Sumlin needs his team to finish strong. Gus Malzahn has to avoid another 2-6 season in league play. Bret Bielema can’t afford much of a regression in the standings. Dan Mullen might get sick of finishing fifth. 

Change is the nature of both the business and the conference, and regardless of which team wins the SEC West this fall, it’s only a matter of time before the looming coaching overhaul begins. Consequently, don't be surprised if the the division has a different feel to it in the near future.

Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer and the author of 24 books including "Where Football is King: A History of the SEC." Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.