Offseason Question Marks for Top College Football Playoff Contenders
Even the best college football teams enter a season with some level of uncertainty. After all, we're dealing with teams made up of 18- to 22-year-olds, a demographic that is brimming with talent and promise but is also still figuring out the whole "responsible adult" thing.
Just look back at last year's four College Football Playoff entrants, and you'll see they managed to make the semifinals despite heading into 2015 with some unanswered questions.
Eventual national champion Alabama had no idea who its quarterback would be, runner-up Clemson had concerns about its rebuilt defense and didn't know how Deshaun Watson would look after knee surgery, Michigan State was searching for a running back and had to replace noted defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi, and Oklahoma had overhauled its coaching staff and offensive scheme.
The same is the case this season for college football's top playoff contenders, all of whom have question marks at this point. We've detailed the most pressing one for each of the top 12 candidates, based on Odds Shark's early lines to win the national title.
Alabama Crimson Tide
1 of 12
Can Bo Scarbrough carry the load?
Alabama knows what it takes to repeat as national champions, having won four titles since 2009, and those teams had their own question marks. The current Crimson Tide unit is no different, and a new concern just popped up with offensive lineman Cam Robinson's arrest on a felony weapons charge.
While the possibility of losing a two-year starter at left tackle would be major, because it's a relatively new development, we're focusing on a question that can be better addressed. That would be Alabama's running back situation, where it has to replace Heisman winner and single-season school record holder Derrick Henry as well as versatile change-of-pace back Kenyan Drake.
That duo combined for 2,627 rushing yards and 29 rushing touchdowns, and returning rushers accounted for fewer than 300 yards and two scores. Damien Harris had 157 yards and a TD, while Bo Scarbrough gained 104 yards with a TD on just 18 carries.
Scarbrough has been identified as the next superstar, very much in the mold of Henry and not just because he's of similar size at 6'2" and 240 pounds. Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer called him "the future of Alabama football" in January, before he failed to register a carry in the College Football Playoff National Championship to cap his redshirt freshman season.
Henry didn't play much in his freshman year but still had 382 yards and three scores, and the Tide knew what they had in him. In Scarbrough, it's still mostly about promise, with results hopefully coming soon.
"It's one thing to think that Bo Scarbrough can be a standout running back, quite another to actually see him being one consistently over the course of a season," Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh wrote.
Alabama also has another quarterback competition to deal with, but after seeing what offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin did with first-time starters Blake Sims and Jake Coker the previous two years, this isn't as pressing an issue. It will be, though, if the Tide don't have a dependable runner to balance things out.
Baylor Bears
2 of 12
Will past injuries at quarterback impact future performance?
Baylor proved during its bowl game in December that it could win without having to throw the ball, but that bowl-record 645 rushing yards against North Carolina came after weeks of preparation. During the regular season, the Bears weren't able to adjust on the fly when they lost not one but two top-notch passers.
Before injuring his neck in October, Seth Russell was on his way to becoming a Heisman Trophy contender. He threw 29 touchdowns in seven games on just 200 attempts, with Baylor winning those contests by an average of 36 points. Freshman Jarrett Stidham made a nearly seamless transition in his three starts, with 934 yards and six TDs, but then he got hurt and missed the final three games of 2015.
That's when Baylor's passing attack, regularly one of the most explosive in the country, fell apart. Using a pair of converted receivers, the Bears were just 20-of-52 for 146 yards, with a TD and three interceptions over the next two games. Those were losses to TCU and Texas, just the second and third time in a three-year span the Bears failed to score at least 27 points.
Russell and Stidham both returned this spring, but Russell was limited while recovering from neck surgery and then missed the tail end of practice with a strained pectoral muscle. He'll be the starter if he's healthy; if not, Stidham will get the nod. Though with each coming back from injury, there could be some tentativeness.
Making matters worse: Baylor will be starting four new players on the offensive line. Last year's blockers allowed just 15 sacks.
Clemson Tigers
3 of 12
Is the next set of defensive starters good enough?
The Clemson offense appears so stacked that it can win most games by itself, but that's never ideal. The Tigers have national title aspirations after reaching the final this past season, and only two of the last eight champs have allowed more than the 21.7 points per game they yielded in 2015.
And that was with a defensive lineup that featured seven players taken in last month's NFL draft.
Only four starters are back, but that's one more than Clemson had returning from the 2014 unit that was third nationally in scoring defense. Several of its first-time starters last fall made immediate impacts, and that's what it hopes will happen again in 2016.
There's no denying the talent at coordinator Brent Venables' disposal, particularly on the defensive line, but it's also young. Senior Carlos Watkins, a returner at defensive tackle, will be surrounded by freshmen (5-star Dexter Lawrence) and sophomores (Austin Bryant, Christian Wilkins and Richard Yeargin). Only senior Ben Boulware returns from the linebacker corps, and senior corner Cordrea Tankersley represents the veteran in the Clemson secondary.
As good as quarterback Deshaun Watson, running back Wayne Gallman and Clemson's cadre of receivers are, offensive duds can happen. That can spell disaster to playoff hopes if the defense can't do its part.
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Florida State Seminoles
4 of 12
Can the offense find balance?
Dalvin Cook is the first Florida State running back with consecutive 1,000-yard seasons since Warrick Dunn did it three years in a row in the mid-'90s. He's also coming off a sophomore year in which he ran for a school-record 1,691 yards, obliterating Dunn's old mark of 1,242 yards.
That's both an indication of the special talent the Seminoles have in Cook and how much they leaned on him last year. They can't afford to do so again—not if they hope to get back in the ACC and playoff picture and if they want to keep Cook from breaking down.
Cook's 2015 numbers came despite a gimpy hamstring, and the wear and tear of 229 carries in 12 games caused him to need shoulder surgery this offseason. FSU needed every bit of his workload, though, since its quarterback play was suspect and the receiving corps failed to produce any standouts.
Travis Rudolph, Kermit Whitfield and Jesus Wilson each grabbed more than 50 catches, combining for 2,336 yards and 16 TDs, but none became a go-to target for either Everett Golson or Sean Maguire. Maguire figures to be FSU's starter this fall if he can come back from a broken ankle. If not, the 'Noles will need to turn to a freshman (either Deondre Francois or Malik Henry).
Rudolph is the best option for a breakout star, but take away his big games last year against Syracuse (191 yards, three TDs) and Houston (201 yards, one score), and he averaged 4.3 catches for 47.6 yards per game with three scores.
LSU Tigers
5 of 12
Will quarterback play be an asset or liability?
Stop us if you've heard this before: LSU will go only as far as its quarterback takes it.
The Tigers know this, likely starter Brandon Harris (and backup Danny Etling, the Purdue transfer) knows this, and their opponents know this. So does Leonard Fournette, the dominant, bruising running back who most of the time is capable of making the lack of a viable passing attack a non-issue.
But Fournette also knows he can't do it all himself every game. He and LSU found this out the hard way after he carried the team to a 7-0 start but then was slowed down by Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss during a three-game losing streak that saw the Tigers go from first in the playoff rankings to out of them altogether.
During that skid, Harris was 53-of-105 with 723 yards but had just three touchdowns against four interceptions. His 13 TD passes for the year were tied for eighth fewest among the 80 FBS quarterbacks with at least 276 attempts in 2015.
Coach Les Miles has faith in Harris, telling Tony Barnhart of GridironNow.com, "If our quarterback plays like he's capable, I like us."
That's a big if—one that will likely determine LSU's playoff hopes and could also determine if Miles remains in Baton Rouge beyond this season.
Michigan Wolverines
6 of 12
Are there any offensive playmakers?
It shouldn't need to be said, but the high expectations being placed on Michigan this season warrant pointing out that Jim Harbaugh has no college eligibility remaining. Therefore, he can only do so much to address the Wolverines' issues on offense heading into 2016.
Michigan is set to return eight starters on that side of the ball, including four offensive linemen and its top three receivers. Also back is De'Veon Smith, who started 10 games and emerged as the best option at running back. Whether he (or anyone else available) can be more than just a serviceable ball-carrier, though, is still unclear.
"The trademark of a finished Harbaugh offense is controlling the ball and clock with a steady rushing attack," Bleacher Report's David Kenyon wrote. Kenyon noted that Michigan's 2.75 yards per carry on standard rushing downs ranked the Wolverines 107th out of 128 FBS teams last year, according to Football Outsiders.
Smith's 753 yards and six touchdowns led Michigan in 2015, but 10 other Big Ten schools had a rusher gain more yards. The Wolverines offense became far more dependent on graduate transfer quarterback Jake Rudock than was expected at the outset, and similar reliance is likely on the 2016 starter.
As it stands, that's either another transfer (former Houston passer John O'Korn), a little-used backup (Wilton Speight) or a one-time starter (Shane Morris, who was redshirted last season). Only Speight attempted a pass last year, going 9-of-25 for 73 yards with a TD and an interception behind Rudock.
Jake Butt, Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh are good, proven receiving targets, but they're even better when working with an effective passer and aided by a strong run game.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
7 of 12
Who will win the quarterback competition, and how long will it take to decide?
Despite a ridiculous amount of talent spread across the roster, Ohio State went into its national title defense in 2015 with an unsettled quarterback situation. This remained for much of the year, only getting decided after it was too late to matter.
Notre Dame's offensive coaches likely have studied how the Buckeyes handled—or mishandled—that QB competition to the level of a grad student working on a thesis. The Fighting Irish have plenty of their own talent to work with, though not as much to where they can skate by for much of this fall without deciding between junior DeShone Kizer and senior Malik Zaire.
Either one figures to do well based on their play in the past, with both of them coming on in relief roles (Zaire for Everett Golson late in 2014, Kizer for the injured Zaire early last year) and excelling. It's not as much a matter of which one is the best option as much as making a decision and sticking to it, thus pushing aside any uncertainty—like Ohio State had as it went back and forth between J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones for several games.
We've already seen some potential drama in the form of Zaire griping during spring ball about perceived doubts of his ability. More of that could come about if Notre Dame lets the competition linger.
Coach Brian Kelly knows he has a decision to make, per JJ Stankevitz of CSNChicago.com:
"There will be a time when I'm going to have to say, that's our quarterback, let's go with him, we're all in, and let's move forward. They are both that good. I already know that. But there will be a day, and we're going to have to say: It's time to go, he's our quarterback, everybody's behind him and we need to go, and that's who the quarterback is.
"
Ohio State Buckeyes
8 of 12
Can all that unproven talent actually come through?
With only six projected starters returning, no team in FBS is going to look more different in 2016 than Ohio State. So why, again, are the Buckeyes getting 12-1 odds, per Odds Shark, to win the national title and no worse than 12th in any major media outlet's super-early rankings?
Urban Meyer's proven track record—50 wins in his first four seasons with OSU—and several great recruiting classes are the main reasons, as well as some recent evidence this program can quickly turn backups into stars. The 2014 team had to turn to a redshirt freshman at quarterback and included a slew of first-time starters and ended up winning the national title going away.
That's what makes the Buckeyes playoff contenders. Having them actually be among the final four, either as Big Ten champions or a close second, isn't as easy to base off past performance.
J.T. Barrett being locked in as the starting quarterback—unlike his rotating spot with Cardale Jones a year ago—helps offset some of the youth and inexperience on offense but not all of it.
Barrett has the capability to be a 3,000-yard passer and lead OSU in rushing but only if a rebuilt offensive line can protect him and a work-in-progress receiving corps can get open. There are high hopes for redshirt freshman running back Mike Weber, but until he can show it in a live game, he's still the figurehead of an unproven backfield.
The OSU defense saw six players get drafted, leaving open several spots for former blue-chip recruits such as defensive end Sam Hubbard, cornerback Damon Webb and linebacker Dante Booker to be more than just bit players.
Oklahoma Sooners
9 of 12
Will the defense be able to match last year's effort?
It might not have seemed like it, based on the scores posted throughout the Big 12 last season, but Oklahoma wasn't that bad on defense. The Sooners' 22 points allowed per game tied for 28th nationally, and their 20.4 average in Big 12 games led the league.
Six starters are back from that side, but most of those who moved on were the standouts: lineman Charles Tapper, linebackers Dominique Alexander and Eric Striker, and defensive back Zack Sanchez.
Mike Stoops, brother of head coach Bob Stoops and the team's defensive coordinator, has no easy task in replacing those guys. With a schedule that's just as difficult outside the conference—Oklahoma opens with Houston and hosts Ohio State before Big 12 play begins—as in the league, there's no opportunity to let new starters ease into their roles. Not if the Sooners intend on being a repeat playoff entrant.
Oklahoma is finding itself as a contender mostly because of its offense, which returns quarterback Baker Mayfield and the two-headed rushing attack of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine. However, as Zac Ellis and Lindsay Schnell of Sports Illustrated noted, "High expectations haven't always coincided with big seasons in Norman."
Since Stoops arrived in 1999, Oklahoma has been a preseason Top 10 team 13 times but finished in the Top 10 in only seven of those years. The last time was in 2010, while the 2014 team that began fourth in the Associated Press poll ended up unranked.
Ole Miss Rebels
10 of 12
Can Greg Little meet lofty expectations?
The cyclical nature of college football and its three- to five-year playing careers make it necessary for teams to always be planning ahead. Ideally you'd like to have replacements lined up for departing stars before they go, giving them the opportunity to get some playing time as backups before jumping into starting roles.
Ole Miss had such a succession plan in place for two of the three players from last year's Sugar Bowl team who went in the first round, but Laremy Tunsil's replacement at left tackle has yet to arrive.
Greg Little, the No. 3 overall prospect in the 2016 recruiting class, will enroll this summer and then get to work on his preordained starting spot protecting quarterback Chad Kelly's blind side. It's not a 100 percent guarantee, as coach Hugh Freeze has said he'll have to "earn it," per ESPN's Chris Low, but all signs point to an 18-year-old anchoring the Rebels' left side for their Labor Day opener against Florida State.
At 6'5 ½" and 305 pounds, Little is already the right size for the job. Everything else has to get ironed out during the preseason, which Ole Miss hopes is enough time.
Stanford Cardinal
11 of 12
Will Christian McCaffrey have any help?
Christian McCaffrey didn't just break the FBS single-season all-purpose yardage record last season; he obliterated it. His 3,864 yards were 1,200-plus more than any other individual in the country, and he put up 461 on USC in the Pac-12 title game.
There are no pressing questions related to Stanford's do-everything junior, other than whether he'll end up having to do it all himself in 2015. It was close to that a year ago, but that was with a senior quarterback (Kevin Hogan) and a veteran offense. Now McCaffrey is the only returning skill-position starter.
Opponents usually only had a week to prepare for McCaffrey and his versatility last year, but now they've been able to game-plan all offseason. In order to keep him from being the sole focus of defensive schemes, Stanford has to get production from the rest of the offense.
Stanford is deciding between Ryan Burns and Keller Chryst at quarterback, with neither getting much playing time behind Hogan. And Bryce Love, who ran for 226 yards and had 250 receiving yards as a freshman, is the only other skill player with any real numbers.
Tennessee Volunteers
12 of 12
Can the Volunteers start a season as well as they finish it?
Tennessee is one of only two teams on this list (along with LSU) that didn't win 10 games a year ago, something it hasn't accomplished since 2007. Yet it feels like the Volunteers are annually hyped as a dark horse or a breakout team.
In reality, according to Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee, Tennessee was last tabbed by league media as the preseason division winners in 2005. Part of the misperception is that Tennessee has finished strong the last two seasons under Butch Jones, thus heading into the offseason with plenty of momentum.
The Vols went 5-9 in games played in September or October in 2014-15, compared to 9-1 in those contested in November, December or January. How do they transfer those late surges to the early part of the year?
Part of the formula involves having a veteran team, which Tennessee does in the form of 17 returning starters. The rest is a matter of mentality and focus.
"Have the difficult lessons of a season ago matured them enough to face the adversity when it inevitably comes?" Bleacher Report's Brad Shepard wrote.
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter @realBJP.
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