Big Ten Q&A: Who Will Win Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year?
G'day, mate.
Is that the latest greeting in Big Ten country? It might as well be after it was revealed this week that Jim Harbaugh is taking his satellite camp tour worldwide with a planned stop in Australia on June 3. Harbaugh will be a busy man throughout the month of June, with 30 satellite camps slated and seven more traditional camps to be held in Ann Arbor.
It's worth noting at this point that there are only 30 days in June.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Other than that, it's been a quiet few weeks in the Big Ten during the doldrums of the college football offseason between spring practice and fall camp. With that in mind, let's get to this week's Big Ten Q&A, where we'll tackle a conference Defensive Player of the Year prediction, the state of Northwestern, the future of Ohio State's defensive coordinator and where Michigan stands entering 2016.
As always, you can send me your questions each week on Twitter @BenAxelrod.
Let's get started.
There's a big difference between who the Big Ten's best defensive player is and who's ultimately going to win the conference's Nagurski–Woodson Defensive Player of the Year award.
As good as Penn State's Carl Nassib was a year ago, it's hard to believe Iowa's Desmond King didn't walk away with the honor in 2015, the same season the Hawkeyes cornerback won the Thorpe Award, which is presented annually to the nation's top defensive back.
Back in Iowa City for his senior season, King should be the front-runner to win the Nagurski-Woodson in 2016, but the award's history hasn't been very favorable for defensive backs. In fact, you'd have to go back all the way to 2002 to find the last time a defensive back earned the honor (Ohio State's Mike Doss) and even further back to 2000 for the last time it was won by a corner (Wisconsin's Jamar Fletcher).
With voters—coaches and media—seeming to favor defensive linemen and linebackers, that leaves three primary candidates outside of King to win this year's award: Ohio State's Raekwon McMillan, Illinois' Dawuane Smoot and Northwestern's Anthony Walker.
In the case of McMillan, the numbers will certainly be there after the Buckeyes' middle linebacker tallied a team-high 119 tackles in 2015 en route to being named a finalist for the Butkus Award. But with his tackles for loss (4) and sacks (1.5) lacking, the junior-to-be will need to make more of an impact to be considered this year's DPOY, especially with former teammates Darron Lee and Joshua Perry now in the NFL.
The conference's returning sack-getter, Smoot deserves a place at the table as well after he tallied 14 tackles for a loss and eight sacks a season ago. The arrival of Lovie Smith in Champaign should only boost the play of the Fighting Illini defensive end, who will no longer have Jihad Ward on the other side of the Illinois line commanding attention.
However, it's going to be tough for Smoot to win the award if Illinois doesn't put together at least a winning season in the coming year.
And then there's Walker, who may have been the Big Ten's most underrated defensive player a year ago, despite earning All-American honors. Helping lead the Wildcats to a 10-2 regular-season record, the Northwestern middle linebacker racked up 120 tackles, 20.5 of which came for a loss, and four sacks.
Other players to keep an eye on include Michigan's Jabrill Peppers, Iowa's Josey Jewell, Ohio State's Tyquan Lewis and Michigan State's Malik McDowell. But if Walker can find similar success statistically—and the Wildcats do the same on the field—he's my pick, based on the history of the award.
Mediocrity? What mediocrity?
Did you not see Northwestern's 10-3 campaign last season?
While that blowout loss to Tennessee in the Outback Bowl was somewhat of a red flag that the Wildcats' 10-2 regular season may have been more a matter of luck and happenstance, I think the reality in Evanston is that you're just not going to do a lot better than Pat Fitzgerald on your sideline.
Every few years, Fitz gets linked to a big-time job, whether it's USC or Texas, and while nothing's come to fruition yet, that's indicative of just how highly the college football community views the former Wildcats linebacker.
After all, those academic restrictions can't be easy to deal with, especially when playing in a conference as competitive as the Big Ten. Nevertheless, Fitzgerald has compiled a 70-56 record in the past 10 years, although he currently owns just a 1-5 mark in postseason play.
Looking ahead to 2016, he should get another crack at picking up his second bowl win, especially with Walker and running back Justin Jackson returning to his roster. Quarterback Clayton Thorson was only a freshman a year ago and should be used more as a playmaker in the coming year than the game manager he was in 2015.
Competing for the Big Ten West title or even matching last year's 10-2 mark is going to be tough—it always is at Northwestern. But i'm not sure what else the Wildcats can ask for from a head coach who still could one day find himself on the sideline of one of college football's blue-blood programs.
Two?
I'm not convinced he's going to be at Ohio State for more than one.
While Urban Meyer typically asks for a two-year commitment from his assistant coaches, Greg Schiano suspiciously only signed a one-year deal upon arriving in Columbus last December. According to the former Rutgers head coach, however, that's nothing to read into.
"It's more of a business thing for me, because I'm still under contract at another place and all that stuff," Schiano said, referencing his last job as the head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he was fired in 2013. "I'm not going to get into all that stuff."
Nevertheless, it's hard to imagine an established coach like Schiano, who interviewed for the Miami (Florida) head coaching opening this past winter, is going to be satisfied being an assistant coach for a long period of time. In fact, Schiano admitted this past winter there were very few places he'd be willing to serve as an assistant—and doing so for Meyer at Ohio State just happened to be one of them.
Despite Meyer's track record when it comes to commitments from assistants, Schiano seems like an exception, an overqualified candidate the Buckeyes are lucky to have, even if just for one year. And if that is the case, it's a safe bet Meyer's aware of Schiano's plans.
I'd set the over-under of years Schiano will be in Columbus at 1.5. At this point, I'd be leaning toward the under.
I wrote about this a little bit earlier this week with my piece on J.T. Barrett still making Ohio State the favorites in the Big Ten.
And I guess to the surprise of no one, that didn't sit well with Michigan fans.
To expand on my point from Thursday, I'm just not sure how the Wolverines can be considered the Big Ten favorites—as many "way-too-early top-25" polls this offseason have—when they don't even know who their quarterback's going to be and Ohio State lays claim to the best player at the position in the Big Ten.
Yes, the Buckeyes have holes elsewhere on their roster, but the same could have been said in 2014 before Barrett helped carry the team to the cusp of the College Football Playoff before a broken ankle suffered against Michigan ended his season.
If Barrett was able to do that as a redshirt freshman, why wouldn't he be able to do the same two years later? Last season may not have gone as planned for anyone in Columbus, but in the case of Barrett, it's fair to say his quarterback controversy with Cardale Jones was an extenuating circumstance.
As for the Wolverines, I expect them to take another step forward this season. But completely closing the gap on Ohio State is a tall task, given how well Meyer's recruited—and the reality is that it may not happen until Barrett's eligibility with the Buckeyes comes to an end.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. Recruit rankings and info courtesy of 247Sports.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
