Future Power Rankings for the 2016 NBA Lottery Teams
Finishing outside the NBA's playoff picture means you had a bad season. It doesn't, however, mean your future isn't bright, as some lottery squads are brimming over with young talent still learning on the job.
A handful of this year's lottery teams are doomed to lengthy rebuilds filled with plenty more losing. But as we move closer to the top of these rankings, we'll be staring at outfits that will be quite competitive soon.
Here, we're looking at everything that can affect the coming campaigns—draft picks owned in the next few offseasons, cap space this summer (based on the $92 million projection from USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt), incumbent core pieces, head coaches and so much more. If it can elevate or depress a team's ceiling in the next few years, it's relevant.
Cross your fingers and hope your team winds up toward the top. Otherwise, you're likely to be repeating the lottery visits for the foreseeable future.
14. Brooklyn Nets
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: No. 55
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: Boston Celtics can swap first-round picks and would convey second-round pick if they do so (protected 31-45); second-round pick to Atlanta Hawks
2016 Cap Space: $35.3 million
Potential Centerpieces Under Contract: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Finding reason for optimism is nearly impossible.
Thanks to their ill-advised (and ill-fated) pursuits of immediate success, the Brooklyn Nets won't be making a pick in the 2016 NBA draft until all but six selections have been completed. One year later, they'll likely fall near the end of the first round, as the Boston Celtics will almost surely be a strong playoff squad eager to swap picks with these Eastern Conference bottom-feeders.
A dearth of quality draft choices would be palatable if the Nets had actual incumbent talent to showcase, but that's still not the case.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson could become a bright spot and, when healthy, was a plus defender during his rookie season. But beyond him, the Nets are left looking at the aging versions of Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young, as well as the limited upside of Shane Larkin and Thomas Robinson.
This rebuild will be a lengthy process. Barring a second-round miracle in an upcoming draft, it's unlikely the Nets will be competitive in the next few years.
13. Sacramento Kings
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: No. 8, No. 59
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: Philadelphia 76ers can swap first-round picks (protected 11-30); second-round pick to Orlando Magic (protected 31-55)
2016 Cap Space: $26.2 million
Potential Centerpieces Under Contract: DeMarcus Cousins
We'll let George Karl take it away, as the former Sacramento Kings head coach didn't hold back about his most recent employers in an April interview with Ailene Voisin of the Sacramento Bee:
"Whether or not they trade Cuz [DeMarcus Cousins], they have to empower their coach. They have to let him coach. It takes a few years to build a program. It becomes a culture, an energy force. [Owner Vivek Ranadive] wanted magic to happen, but in the NBA magic happens once in a while, and usually is associated with Larry Bird, Magic Johnson or Michael Jordan. I think you can win with him (Cousins), but my thing is, how long is it going to take to get there? Then, how long before you become a winning team? I think there are faster ways to go.
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However, this is about so much more than DeMarcus Cousins—a supremely skilled center who has proved nearly uncoachable during his NBA career.
The Kings have emerged as a dysfunctional mess after a calendar year that saw A) them fail to sign free agents who subsequently took less money to play elsewhere, B) players complain about internal issues eight games into the 2015-16 campaign, C) the team flirt with the idea of firing Karl multiple times, D) the minority owners try to take control and force out majority owner Vivek Ranadive and E) so, so much more.
Cousins is a legitimate centerpiece, and he could be joined in that category by Willie Cauley-Stein. But this roster is overflowing with chemistry concerns and players who have disappointed, to the point that it seems unsalvageable for the time being.
12. Chicago Bulls
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: No. 14, No. 48
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: None
2016 Cap Space: $17.8 million
Potential Centerpieces Under Contract: Jimmy Butler, Bobby Portis
There's a certain mythos attached to the Chicago Bulls franchise, but it's important to remember this organization is by no means infallible. Lest we forget, Michael Jordan's retirement after the 1998 NBA Finals led to a playoff drought that spanned six consecutive seasons.
The Bulls should rebound quicker than that this time but only because the organization's big-market appeal will help it pursue better free agents during the next few offseasons. Jimmy Butler and Bobby Portis are the only true centerpieces on the roster—Nikola Mirotic is on the cusp of qualifying—and not even Butler is safe.
"We have to explore all options. I don't think anything's off the table with the year we've had," general manager Gar Forman said about the team's commitment to the All-Star shooting guard in early April, per CSN Chicago's Vincent Goodwill.
Derrick Rose is a shell of his old self. Pau Gasol is in the twilight of his career and may not be long for the Windy City. The team has limited cap space this summer during a year in which almost every squad has significant spending power. Head coach Fred Hoiberg was underwhelming during his first season on an NBA bench.
Tautological as it may seem, the only true reason for optimism here is that the Bulls are the Bulls—the franchise’s name will always resonate in NBA circles far more than most of its lottery-dwelling counterparts.
11. New York Knicks
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: None
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: Second-round pick to Utah Jazz; second-round pick from Houston Rockets
2016 Cap Space: $22.2 million
Potential Centerpieces Under Contract: Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis
It's all about Kristaps Porzingis.
Though Carmelo Anthony remains an impressive offensive contributor and the New York Knicks could milk some upside out of Jerian Grant (if the next head coach decides to play him consistently), the power forward will determine how high this team's ceiling can rise. Defenses adjusted to him throughout his rookie campaign, but adding more weight and becoming more comfortable at the 5 will only help his future ascent.
But how else does New York improve?
Though Phil Jackson has made a number of quality moves during his brief tenure in the front office, his unwillingness to depart from the triangle offense could hold the franchise back. He seems to be using the Knicks more as a testing ground for his pet system than as a legitimate basketball operation, and that's troubling—particularly if it prevents them from moving past Kurt Rambis and the current coaching staff.
Couple that with the absence of picks in the 2016 NBA draft, the relatively limited cap space and the ugly second half after such a promising start, and you can understand why our expectations are a bit depressed.
10. Washington Wizards
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: None
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: None
2016 Cap Space: $41.7 million
Potential Centerpieces Under Contract: John Wall, Otto Porter
When Kevin Durant signs elsewhere, the Washington Wizards' long-term strategy will have officially been foiled. They've already been adjusting for that possibility—trading for Markieff Morris serves as the primary example—but there's only so much they can do after spending years positioning themselves to have max money available during the 2016 offseason.
Now, the focus shifts to Bradley Beal.
Having John Wall and Otto Porter under contract is a nice start, but what the Wizards choose to do with the young shooting guard will ultimately determine their future. Partially due to relentless injuries, Beal's development has stagnated in recent seasons, and that could push Washington into quite the pickle.
Does the team pay top dollar for a 2-guard who, per NBA Math's total points added (TPA) metric, has been a below-average contributor each of the last three seasons and is trending in the wrong direction, hoping he's just a late bloomer? Does it let him walk and attempt to start from scratch?
Though Wall's sheer presence is enough to keep this team in the playoff picture, neither option sounds promising. The Wizards will either be left using the majority of their cap space to keep together an unsuccessful—albeit young—core, or they'll have to seek out new talent and start fresh with the rebuilding process.
9. Phoenix Suns
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: No. 4, No. 13, No. 28, No. 34
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: None
2016 Cap Space: $27.8 million
Centerpieces Under Contract: Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, Brandon Knight
Welcome to the next tier of the rankings.
Even if you're not sold on the long-term potential of players such as Devin Booker, Alex Len and T.J. Warren, you can't deny the Phoenix Suns have positioned themselves well for the future. And given the NBA's lack of upper-tier talent at the 2, you should already be convinced Booker has a solid career in front of him.
Not only do the Suns have legitimate players at each of the backcourt positions, but one of them has asserted himself as a star (when healthy). Eric Bledsoe only suited up in 31 games before injuries ended his season, but his 2.8 box plus/minus would have allowed him to finish top-30 among qualified players.
Beyond that, the Suns have enough cap space to target key players in free agency, and they boast three first-round picks for the upcoming draft. Whether they use all of them to inundate the roster with young, high-potential contributors or package them together for an established star, they should be in far better shape after the offseason.
8. Los Angeles Lakers
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: No. 2, No. 32
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: None
2016 Cap Space: $65.9 million
Potential Centerpieces Under Contract: Julius Randle, D'Angelo Russell
The Los Angeles Lakers should be able to add Jordan Clarkson to their list of potential centerpieces, but they'll have to retain him in free agency this summer. Fortunately, the combo guard seems to desire a return to Tinseltown, especially now that Luke Walton is on board as the head coach.
"It really impacts it a lot," Clarkson told ESPN.com's Jovan Buha about the Walton hiring. "That style of play fits me, as well as the other guys. I definitely want to stay here in L.A. and be here. I said in my exit interview, I don't want to be that guy who bounces around from team to team."
Clarkson and D'Angelo Russell could very well be the backcourt of the future, and Julius Randle displayed plenty of growth throughout what might as well have been his rookie season.
Throw in the appeal of Walton—technically 0-0 as a head coach, but actually 39-4 after filling in for the Golden State Warriors while Steve Kerr rehabbed from back surgery—plus the luster of the purple and gold, and the future looks somewhat promising for Los Angeles.
The Lakers have to replace Kobe Bryant's popularity and quickly land another true star, but they have plenty of opportunities to do so. The incumbent players may deliver, and the Lakers will also take their shots in free agency while presumably using the No. 2 pick on either Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram.
(We're assuming they remain at No. 2, because falling out of the top three would force them to convey their first-round pick to the Philadelphia 76ers, thereby pushing them even further down these rankings.)
7. Orlando Magic
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: No. 11, No. 41, No. 47
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: Second-round pick from Sacramento Kings (protected 31-55)
2016 Cap Space: $47.1 million
Potential Centerpieces Under Contract: Aaron Gordon, Victor Oladipo, Elfrid Payton, Nikola Vucevic
Frankly, we're being a bit fickle with the list of potential centerpieces.
It doesn't include Mario Hezonja, the high-upside Croatian wingman who struggled during his rookie season but is still only 21 years old. Nor does it include Evan Fournier, the restricted free agent who has become a priority for general manager Rob Hennigan to retain, per Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel.
With those two in the fold, the Magic look even more promising. They have legitimate talent at every one of the five traditional positions, and it seems as if Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon particularly have some star potential.
But do the Magic have a true superstar who can carry them to victory when everyone else is struggling? They'll have a chance to pick one up with another lottery addition in the 2016 NBA draft, but the answer seems to be no. Gordon is still too raw, Oladipo too inconsistent and everyone else too limited for now.
Orlando's ceiling remains rather high, but it's tough to view this team as championship-caliber until that changes—hence its placement behind the remaining six squads in this countdown.
6. New Orleans Pelicans
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: No. 6, No. 39, No. 40
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: Second-round pick to Minnesota Timberwolves (protected 31-55); second-round pick from Philadelphia 76ers
2016 Cap Space: $20 million
Potential Centerpieces Under Contract: Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday
This Anthony Davis guy is pretty decent. The issue for the New Orleans Pelicans isn't the lack of a superstar so much as the absence of a supporting cast.
Though injuries prevented him from living up to his MVP potential during the 2015-16 campaign, let's not forget he's only 23 years old and still has plenty of untapped excellence left in the tank. When healthy, Davis remains one of the league's 10 best players, and he has the skill to rise even higher on that ultra-exclusive leaderboard.
Adjusting to head coach Alvin Gentry's schemes didn't do wonders for his growth, but he's only one year removed from a No. 6 finish in TPA, per NBA Math. Once the two sides get on the same page and he's surrounded by more talent (that isn't also crippled by never-ending injuries) we should see him start to rekindle the MVP flame.
Jrue Holiday has looked like a keeper when healthy, but there's only one more year on his contract with no guarantee he can avoid those pesky injuries. Ryan Anderson and Tyreke Evans, when healthy (notice a theme here?), didn't make for an exemplary group of secondary players, and no one on the roster has much unrealized potential.
New Orleans has the luxury of a building block it might not trade for any singular player in the Association, but it must capitalize during free agency and with the No. 6 pick in the 2016 NBA draft to avoid squandering more years of Davis' prime.
5. Milwaukee Bucks
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: No. 10, No. 36, No. 38
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: None
2016 Cap Space: $31.2 million
Potential Centerpieces Under Contract: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Greg Monroe, Jabari Parker
Head coach Jason Kidd deployed Giannis Antetokounmpo as a point guard, and the results were fantastic. From Feb. 22 through the end of the season, he averaged 18.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.9 blocks per game for the Milwaukee Bucks while shooting 51.5 percent from the field.
Antetokounmpo showed he has the requisite vision to torture defenses when they throw multiple defenders at him, and also the size necessary to capitalize in one-on-one situations against true backcourt players.
So long as the Bucks continue using him in this role, their potential will only trend in the right direction. And that's doubly true with Jabari Parker continuing to adjust to the NBA game, Khris Middleton growing on both ends and Greg Monroe becoming more comfortable in his new digs.
Milwaukee has multiple players with enormous upside, and it also has the ability to acquire even more of them. That cap space will look awfully nice this summer, as will the ability to make yet another top-10 pick during the 2016 NBA draft.
In time, we'll all be fearing the deer.
4. Philadelphia 76ers
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: No. 1, No. 24, No. 26
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: Can swap first-round picks with Sacramento Kings (protected 11-30); second-round pick to New Orleans Pelicans
2016 Cap Space: $58.6 million
Potential Centerpieces Under Contract: Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor, Dario Saric
Let's say Dario Saric comes across the pond and disappoints during the 2016-17 season, failing to make good on the lofty potential that has remained mysterious since he was drafted at No. 12 in 2014. In addition, Jahlil Okafor continues to serve as a glaring defensive liability who makes the team significantly worse when he's on the floor.
The Philadelphia 76ers would still be in fine shape.
Nerlens Noel has become one of the best stoppers in the game, to the point that he'd be receiving serious Defensive Player of the Year consideration if his team were more successful. According to defensive points saved, the point-preventing portion of NBA Math's TPA, he was the league's No. 1 defender during his rookie season and No. 10 during the 2015-16 campaign.
As he continues to develop, the Sixers will keep improving. And that's saying nothing of their ability to use three first-round picks while also pursuing top-tier players in free agency. Plus, it's not as if Okafor and Saric will actually be terrible.
Philadelphia has become entrenched as one of the NBA's bottom-feeding teams, but that's about to change. The rebuilding plan was always going to be a long-term one, and the fruits of former general manager Sam Hinkie's labors should start to become real progress in 2016-17, even if he's no longer there to see them through.
3. Denver Nuggets
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: No. 7, No. 15, No. 19, No. 53, No. 56
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: First-round pick from Memphis Grizzlies (protected 1-5); second-round pick to Houston Rockets
2016 Cap Space: $29.4 million
Potential Centerpieces Under Contract: Will Barton, Kenneth Faried, Danilo Gallinari, Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic, Emmanuel Mudiay, Jusuf Nurkic
Where do the Denver Nuggets have holes?
At point guard, Emmanuel Mudiay is clearly the future of the franchise. He struggled during his rookie season, but making the adjustment from China to the NBA will always lead to significant growing pains.
On the wings, Will Barton and Gary Harris have shown significant potential; they'll only be aided by Danilo Gallinari and the return to health of Wilson Chandler. In the frontcourt, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Kenneth Faried and Joffrey Lauvergne all deserve significant playing time.
If there are any weaknesses, the Nuggets can fix them by using one of their three first-round picks on June 23. Plus, they have money to spend in free agency and two more selections in the second round to package for something better.
Denver should have a deep roster filled with young talent aching to prove itself at the sport's highest level. The only enduring questions revolve around how high some of the youngsters can rise.
2. Utah Jazz
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: No. 12, No. 42, No. 52, No. 60
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: First-round pick from Golden State Warriors; second-round pick from Detroit Pistons; second-round pick from Golden State Warriors; second-round pick from New York Knicks
2016 Cap Space: $31.1 million
Potential Centerpieces Under Contract: Dante Exum, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, Gordon Hayward, Rodney Hood, Trey Lyles
The Utah Jazz may have finished in the lottery, but they weren't really a lottery team. Plagued by significant injuries to key pieces throughout the 2015-16 season, they underperformed relative to their overall talent and still produced some underlying metrics indicative of a playoff finish.
According to Basketball-Reference.com's simple rating system, which looks only at strength of schedule and margin of victory, they were the No. 10 team in the Association, slightly ahead of the Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat and Portland Trail Blazers. They also outscored the opposition by two points per 100 possessions—notably better than some organizations that played postseason basketball.
Now, the Jazz get to keep their core together and add to it.
Trevor Booker is the only man coming off the books, and his production can be absorbed by an improving Trey Lyles and a healthy Derrick Favors. Dante Exum should be back, while the other young contributors will only keep getting better. Plus, the Jazz have enough money to throw a max contract at someone in free agency while also using the No. 12 pick on a potential stud.
If Utah misses out on the postseason again, it will be inexcusable. Its floor is higher than that of any other lottery squad in this countdown, even if its ceiling still falls a bit short of the No. 1 team.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves
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2016 NBA Draft Picks: No. 5
2017 Draft-Pick Deals: Second-round pick from New Orleans Pelicans (protected 31-55); second-round pick to Boston Celtics
2016 Cap Space: $30.4 million
Potential Centerpieces Under Contract: Zach LaVine, Ricky Rubio, Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins
How many members of the Utah Jazz could turn into MVP candidates? There may not even be one on the roster, though it's littered with potential All-Stars. The Minnesota Timberwolves already have two, and they could soon add a third with the No. 5 pick in the 2016 NBA draft.
Karl-Anthony Towns, the likely Rookie of the Year, is already close to becoming the league's best true center, and it feels like he's only just tapping into his immense potential.
Andrew Wiggins has incredible scoring talent and all-around upside, even if he's had trouble turning those raw skills into actual production early in his career. Even Zach LaVine has All-Star potential, especially now that the Wolves have realized they're better off playing him at the 2, thriving away from the ball.
Throw in Tom Thibodeau as the franchise's new head coach, and the porous defense should start improving quickly. Everything is trending in the right direction, and there's no telling how long it will continue to do so.
Minnesota was quite bad in 2015-16. Now, that's going to change in no time at all.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all salary information and stats are from NBAMath.com or Basketball-Reference.com.
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