NBA Playoffs 2016: Updated Odds for Each Remaining Team to Win a Title
To bookies and erstwhile sports prognosticators, the NBA playoffs must be a breeze.
Even with all that injuries can do to upset the apple cart (see: the Los Angeles Clippers), the Association's postseason remains far and away the most predictable in major pro sports, at least at a macro level.
The top title contenders determined by the regular season—the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs out West, the Cleveland Cavaliers in the East—have largely held true to form since the field was reduced to 16 teams. The Warriors aren't quite the runaway favorite without the injured Stephen Curry, but have more than held the fort in his absence.
There may yet be challengers to the presumed order of things, if the Oklahoma City Thunder, Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors have anything to say about it. For the most part, though, there don't figure to be any shockers within the bigger picture—nothing more stunning than the Portland Trail Blazers' serendipitous survival into the second round, anyway.
Their odds of climbing out of a 0-2 hole against the defending champs, much less winning it all, are slim. Here's what Odds Shark has to say about how likely each of the NBA's Elite Eight is to come away with the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy in June.
Portland Trail Blazers: 250-1
The Golden State Warriors gave the Portland Trail Blazers as generous a head start in Game 2 as any visitor to Oracle Arena could have asked for.
No Stephen Curry. A cold Klay Thompson. A red-hot Damian Lillard after halftime. A 17-point second-quarter lead.
Even that wasn't enough of a cushion for the Blazers to steal one in Oakland. By the middle of the fourth quarter, the game was tied. By the end, Portland had punted away a 110-99 defeat and, perhaps, any hope of upending the defending champs along with it.
"Nights like tonight, they suck," Lillard said afterward, per the Oregonian's Joe Freeman. "It hurts to go back in the locker room after you play so well for so long and you come back in there with the (loss). But it is a part of growth. The entire season has been growth for us. But...we have to close that out, we have to get that done. It was just a missed opportunity."
There won't be many chances better than that for the Blazers. Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters Thursday that Curry "will probably not" play in the next contest, though the MVP himself claims he could be back for Game 3 on Saturday.
Either way, the clock is ticking on Portland's Cinderella run.
Atlanta Hawks: 250-1
The odds have swung decisively against the Atlanta Hawks of late, and for good reason.
In Game 1 against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Hawks climbed out of an 18-point hole, only to fall right back in by the end of a 104-93 loss. Atlanta's collapse continued during Game 2, courtesy of Cleveland's record-setting 25 three-pointers in a 123-98 victory that wasn't even that close.
"I’m a man who believes anything is possible," Paul Millsap said, per ESPN.com's Ohm Youngmisuk. "And the impossible happened tonight."
Atlanta erasing its 0-2 series deficit at this point might be as improbable as Cleveland's three-point barrage was. The Hawks have dropped nine in a row to the Cavs dating back to last year's Eastern Conference Finals.
Atlanta's fortunes could change with a return to Philips Arena. They'll have to in a hurry if the Hawks are to avoid suffering a second sweep in as many seasons at the hands of LeBron James and Co.
"They won two at their place, and it is time for us to win two at our place," Millsap said. "That has to be the mindset of the team. We have no choice right now. It is do or die."
Toronto Raptors: 75-1
If Rodney Dangerfield were alive today, he'd probably be a Toronto Raptors fan. Even after (finally) surviving a first-round scare, Canada's team can't seem to get any respect, be it from bookies or prospective opponents.
James' remarks about potentially facing Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals made their way, courtesy of the media, to Raptors coach Dwane Casey.
"Well that's fine, and I said this before: Nobody respects us, everybody has written us off, and that's fine," Casey told reporters Wednesday, per TSN (via Fox Sports' Jovan Buha). "Hopefully our guys take that to heart and take offense to it."
What they really should take offense to is Kyle Lowry's shooting.
The All-Star point guard hasn't made more than 40 percent of his field goals during a game in over a month. Whether Lowry's problem is in his elbow or his head, the Raptors will need him to sort it out soon against a Heat team that's well-equipped at guard to take advantage of any shortfalls from the Toronto backcourt.
Miami Heat: 33-1
With Chris Bosh officially out for the remainder of the playoffs, the Miami Heat's big-man rotation has essentially been reduced to Hassan Whiteside, plus sprinklings of Amar'e Stoudemire and Udonis Haslem where applicable.
For most teams, even in today's small-ball-obsessed NBA, a reduction of frontcourt options to that degree would be a death knell. For the Heat, it has become a rallying cry.
"It makes you come out and just do a little bit more, because you've got somebody who would kill to be out there, who would do anything just to be on the floor," Wade said, per ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst. "I take that into every game with me, for sure."
Bosh has been around the team, offering words of encouragement throughout. During Game 1 against the Raptors, he fired up Miami with a rousing speech heading into overtime, after the team had blown a 10-point lead late in the fourth quarter. The Heat went on to win 102-96.
As much influence as Bosh may have off the court, the Heat's on-court fortunes rest with their stellar supply of perimeter playmakers.Wade has been clutch throughout this postseason. Goran Dragic has hit his stride, with 51 points over his last two games. Luol Deng has thrived as a cutting power forward, Joe Johnson can still score in a pinch and rookie Josh Richardson has been a difference-maker off the bench.
Given all that group can do, the Heat might not need much more up front than what Whiteside provides, especially if Lowry continues to struggle for Toronto.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 14-1
The Oklahoma City Thunder looked dead in the water after an embarrassing 124-92 Game 1 loss to the San Antonio Spurs. Come Game 2, OKC seemed much more like the title contender its talent suggests it should be.
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 57 points on 22-of-44 (50 percent) shooting. The Thunder, as a whole, hit 48.1 percent of their shots while holding the Spurs to 42.6 percent and winning the battle of the boards, 48-37.
"I thought we did a good job from the beginning making it tough," Durant said, per the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "That first [Spurs] basket didn't go in, and that was a step in the right direction for us after what happened last game. We just try to make every basket tough."
That's how the Thunder will have to play it from here on out. They can't rest on what few laurels they have left against the disciplined, championship-tested Spurs. Nor will they survive a conference finals against the Warriors without otherworldly play from their superstars, as well as full effort and crisp execution on the defensive end.
But with a win in San Antonio, where the Spurs have lost just twice all season, the Thunder head back to OKC for Game 3 to parlay their home-court advantage into what could be a deep postseason push.
San Antonio Spurs: 13-4
It's a new day for the San Antonio Spurs. The team's longtime championship triumvirate now serves as a Hall of Fame supporting cast for All-Stars Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge.
By and large, that transition has been a smooth one. The Spurs put together the best regular season (67-15) in franchise history and romped through their first five playoff games by an average margin of 24 points.
Game No. 6, though, revealed some cracks in the armor for Gregg Popovich's squad. While Aldridge (41 points on 15-of-21 shooting) continued to torch the nets, the rest of the Spurs offense stagnated around him in what ended as a 98-97 win for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
As Tony Parker remarked in defeat, per the San Antonio Express-News' Jeff McDonald:
"You always have that discussion, because then the other guys are not in rhythm. But hey, LaMarcus has been playing unbelievable. If he keeps playing like that, it's our job even if we get three shots, four shots, we have to make them. That's a tough life.
For me, I used to get 15 or 20 shots so I got time to get a rhythm. When you get four shots, you have to make them. That's my job now. That's my life now. I have to make those shots. I know I'm going to get three or four and then I'm not going to see it again for 10 minutes. It's like that. I'm just going to have to make them.
"
If he and his teammates don't, San Antonio could run into serious trouble, be it against OKC or in a conference finals matchup with the Warriors, who beat the Spurs three out of four times during the regular season. The Spurs are good enough to win it all, but not if there are any hiccups in the torch-passing between the team's old guard and its new pillars.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 11-4
The chances of the Cleveland Cavaliers hitting 25 three-pointers in another game anytime soon land somewhere between slim and none. But after breaking the all-time record for treys in one night—for the regular season or playoffs—the Cavs should have the rest of the field on high alert.
Cavs coach Tyronn Lue commented on the team's performance beyond the arc, per ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin:
"I hope we can continue to do that. We're making the right play. Kevin posts up, they double-team, we make the right pass out of the double team: swing [pass], swing [pass], shot. Or they double-team LeBron in the post. Or we drive the basketball in transition, LeBron's driving seams, Kyrie's driving seams and guys are open. If we're open we want to shoot those shots.
"
That's what Cleveland has been doing since the postseason began. The Cavs lead the field in three-point makes (16.2), attempts (35.7) and percentage (45.3 percent). If ridiculous bombs were an official stat, they'd probably pace the Association in those, too.
The offensive barrage should be more than sufficient to assure James of his sixth straight trip to the Finals. Where the Cavs' championship credentials come into question is on defense. According to NBA.com, Cleveland has surrendered 105.9 points per 100 possessions in these playoffs, including 103.0 to the Hawks in Round 2.
Barring a six-week extension of what seems to be an unsustainable run of shot-making, the Cavaliers will need to tighten operation on the other end if they're going to end their hometown's 52-year pro sports title drought.
Golden State Warriors: 5-7
The way things are going for the Warriors, they might not need a healthy Curry to defend their title. Thompson, Draymond Green and Shaun Livingston have combined with the rest of Golden State's roster to not so much replace Curry as fortify the foundation under his feet.
Steve Kerr's squad has hardly been challenged without Curry during this year's playoffs. The Warriors' only loss, Game 3 to the Houston Rockets in the first round, came on a game-winner from James Harden that shouldn't have counted. Their biggest deficit of the postseason—17 points, during the second quarter of Game 2 against the Trail Blazers—was gone by the middle of the fourth and replaced by a 110-99 score at the final buzzer.
"We'd been down and out before, and we weren't playing with that good of poise in the first three quarters," Thompson said afterward, per ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss. "And in that fourth quarter we weren't hunting for shots and playing stingy defense, and we were just locked in on both sides of the ball."
That blueprint may be enough to oust the rebuilt Blazers, with or without Curry. But can Golden State hold serve under those circumstances against the Spurs or Thunder in the next round? Or in a championship rematch with the Cavaliers?
As well as the Warriors have played, they're hoping a Curry return renders those questions irrelevant ahead of the Western Conference Finals.
Stats per NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise cited and accurate as of games played on May 4, 2016.
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