Top 2016 Offseason Priorities for the Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are in the middle of a truly awkward rebuild.
Two years ago, they were the worst team in the league. A year ago, they were in the playoffs and everyone’s sexy pick to break out. Now they’re a team that is struggling to find its identity and figure out where it wrong.
There is real talent there, and they may have accidentally stumbled upon future success when so many injuries to their point guards prompted Giannis Antetokounmpo to run the show (and it worked beautifully).
Whether you call him a 1 or a point forward, the key to the future is Antetokounmpo. With that as the game plan, how can the Bucks use their offseason to pivot their roster to maximize his talents?
Post-All-Star-Break Bucks and Beyond
Even with the “Greek Freak” breaking out, the Bucks struggled because there were other injuries, but the difference in his numbers after the break are astounding:
No one has ever averaged 18 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, a block and a steal for a season while shooting over 50 percent from the field. A few have come close—guys like Larry Bird, LeBron James and Grant Hill. Not bad for a youngster who still could add some polish and range to his game.
He wasn’t the only one who played well after the festivities, though. Khris Middleton struggled out of the gate after getting his big raise last summer. But he went from 17.9 points on 55.2 percent true shooting, 4.0 assists and 3.8 rebounds to 18.8 points on 57.9 percent true shooting, 4.6 dimes and 3.9 boards in the second-half splits, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Jabari Parker was running away with Rookie of the Year in 2014-15 before tearing his ACL. He got off to a rocky start, but his stats jumped too, from 11.3 points, 4.7 boards and 1.4 assists to 18.9, 6.1 and 2.2, respectively.
That trio showed (after the break) that a team can be built around them. More importantly, led by Antetokounmpo, they have an identity as a lengthy, athletic crew that plays with space on offense and can either splash home balls from deep or drive to the rim.
Defensively, they can play with the kind of length that disrupts offenses at the point of attack and generates points off turnovers. They’ll not be only good, but darned fun to watch.
The key now is finding the right folks to put around them.
Tweak the Roster
Sometimes, just adding someone can ruin it, even if it’s a player who really does bring something to the table, like Greg Monroe. I love whipped cream. I just don’t want it on my lasagna.
The Bucks have to be careful to preserve their identity with whoever they add.
Bucks who are hitting the open market include O.J. Mayo, Jerry Bayless, Miles Plumlee and Steve Novak. Johnny O’Bryant and Damien Inglis are both on non-guaranteed contracts.
Here is the Milwaukee contract situation if they let all of them go, according to Spotrac:
| PLAYER | POS. | 2016-17 |
| Greg Monroe | C | $17,145,838 |
| Khris Middleton | SF | $15,200,000 |
| Jabari Parker | SF | $5,374,320 |
| John Henson | PF | $12,267,606 |
| Michael Carter-Williams | PG | $3,183,526 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | SF | $2,995,421 |
| Rashad Vaughn | SG | $1,811,040 |
| Tyler Ennis | PG | $1,733,880 |
| TOTAL | 59,711,631 |
Also, there is about $1.9 million still going to Larry Sanders.
That leaves the Bucks with about $30 million to drop in free agency. But there are some things to bear in mind: Only Middleton is locked in on a long-term deal. Parker’s and Antetokounmpo's deals will have to be on the new cap space, which means they’ll be much bigger.
And while in theory the Bucks can just go over the cap to keep their own players, budgetary concerns for them are a little more precise than with most teams. New owners Wesley Edens and Marc Lasry just dropped a sizable chunk of change on the new stadium.
Get Communicative
Milwaukee had the second-best defense in 2014-15 and fell to 22nd last season, according to NBA.com.
Daniel Larsen of Behind the Buck Pass explained why Milwaukee’s defense fell off so much in 2015-16:
"Last season, when the Bucks were at their defensive peak, communication was a common theme. The veteran guys, led by Pachulia and Jared Dudley, talked with the young guys on the floor, telling them where to be, when to rotate and what to do in certain situations. Their extensive knowledge and experience helped set an example for the young guys on how to play successful basketball. Without communication, the team cannot function efficiently, particularly on the defensive end.
This season, however, the defensive communication has all but disappeared. Instead of calling things out to their teammates, the players try to correct the mistakes on their own. This puts guys woefully out-of-position and creates numerous shot opportunities for their opponents. The result is numerous uncontested lay-ups and three-point shots, two things you can never afford to give up if you have any chance at winning in today’s NBA.
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What the Bucks could really use is a rim-protecting center who talks and can do so while covering up for the defensive the liabilities of Monroe (or Parker).
Fortunately for Milwaukee, that guy is available and might not be in great demand. And he lives down the road on Interstate 94. His name is Joakim Noah. The 2013-14 Defensive Player of the Year has everything the Bucks need to get back to the top.
Offensively, he is not going to pour in the points, and he will have the same spacing issues Monroe does. However, his passing ability out of the high post with dribble handoffs and lobs to cutters at the rim would fit right in with a team of high-fliers.
And the Bucks could probably land Noah a little below market value, even with the cap exploding, because his skills aren’t the ones everyone is seeking and he’s coming off injury.
Something in the neighborhood of $18-20 million should get it done.
If they can’t get Noah, Bismack Biyombo or Ian Mahinmi would make for good backup plans. The Bucks don’t need a superstar; they need a guy who stabilizes the defense.
Get a Shooting Point Guard
To round out the starting five, they could use another player with a defensive emphasis, but one who can also hit the spot-up three with regularity.
One such player is in Houston, where the Rockets just locked up Patrick Beverley to a four-year, $25 million deal last summer. There is also considerable speculation that Dwight Howard is on his way out of there. Should that come to pass, the Rockets, who were shopping Beverley before the trade deadline, might be open to a swap with Monroe and Beverley as the principles.
Beverley shot 40 percent from three last year, is a point guard accustomed to playing off the ball and has the kind of defensive tenacity that would fit with the Bucks’ ideal identity.
The presumed starting five then would consist of Beverley, Middleton, Antetokounmpo, Parker and Noah—and it would only add about $5 million to the salary, leaving money to solidify the bench.
If a deal for Beverley didn’t work out, the Bucks could turn to free agency for their point guard. One fit is Mario Chalmers, who played an off-ball role as a spot-up shooter to LeBron James during the Miami Heat’s championship runs.
Chalmers’ quick hands also poke away at opponents’ dribbles, which again works into the kind of disruptive defense that Milwaukee wants to play. He's coming off a torn Achilles and may not be ready for the start of the season, but that should also lower the asking price.
When you're shopping on the cheap, you have to be willing to take risks.
Fortify the Bench
A good chunk of the Bucks' bench will be gone, but the good news is that they can be replaced in targeted fashion by finding reserves who fill roles and can play well together.
John Henson and Michael Carter-Williams can be assets off the pine, but neither is much of an offensive producer. The Bucks could use a true sixth-man type who can score big coming into the game ice cold.
Unfortunately, that guy doesn’t seem to be available. There are, however, a few who come close. Jeremy Lin would be a nice fit. And if the Bucks can’t land him, as crazy as it sounds, bringing Brandon Jennings back to town might not be a horrible idea.
The coin hates them, so they’ll be drafting 10th instead of eighth. With that pick, Demetrius Jackson should get a look; he can create as either a secondary ball-handler (alongside Antetokounmpo) or as the primary guy, running the second unit.
Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress broke him down:
"Jackson's consistency shooting off the catch (41% with feet set--Synergy) allows him to see time operating off the ball, which gives his coaching staff nice flexibility in how to utilize him and his teammates. He's very good out of the corners, and moves off the ball intelligently, something he has experience with spending two years sharing a backcourt with another PG in Jerian Grant. This is a major positive in today's NBA, where almost every team likes to utilize multiple playmakers in concert for significant portions of the game now.
Jackson's strong frame, quick first step and ability to operate at different speeds gives him great potential as a pick and roll, isolation and transition playmaker/scorer as well, even if he's far from reaching his maximum effectiveness in this area. He tends to kill his dribble in traffic far more than you'd hope, looking somewhat indecisive or even passive probing the defense and using his blazing speed to his advantage.
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The Bucks also get the 36th and 38th picks in the draft, which can be “best player available” types.
The primary goal this offseason shouldn’t be so much “who” they get. It's not about getting a big name. It should be about finding the roles that enhance the team’s core and cement its identity.
If they do that, the Bucks will be a threat to be back in the playoffs for 2016-17.
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